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ARIZ

Arizona 14 at Iowa State 39

ISU
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:56 · Noah Fifita pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Home team on offense+21.6Score differential+15.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.7Pregame prior+4.8Garbage-time factor+4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:41: Carson Hansen run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK) — ISU win probability +6.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:41: Timeout Iowa State, clock 12:41 — ARIZ win probability +7.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:52: Carson Hansen run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Smith KICK) — ISU win probability +7.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:22: Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) — ARIZ win probability +8.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:30: Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK) — ISU win probability +8.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 10:17ARIZ 4th & 6 at ISU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:57ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 29, down 8
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:24ISU 4th & 2 at ARIZ 45, up 8
    Close callPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:12ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 11, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:20ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:36ISU 4th & 19 at ISU 33, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−1.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:30ISU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 1, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−8.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:56ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 44, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:46ARIZ 4th & 1 at ISU 1, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:28ISU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 40, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:08ISU 4th & 18 at ARIZ 46, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:45ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 13, down 22
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:29ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 11, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:15ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 40, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:43ISU 4th & 5 at ARIZ 16, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:56ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:41ISU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:52ISU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:22ARIZ Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:30ISU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:08ISU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:46ARIZ Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:2738% → 38%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
62.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
62.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 6 yds to the ARIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
62.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 23 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
61.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 4 yds to the ISU 40Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
61.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the ISU 38Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+6
61.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 6 yds to the ISU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
61.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 5 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-1
61.4%
Kris Hutson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 28Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
61.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
61.8%
Michael Salgado-Medina 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:1362% → 66%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
62.0%
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ISU 30Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
62.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 3 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+5
61.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 5 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
62.1%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 36Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+9
61.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 9 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+8
62.1%
Carson Hansen run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
62.6%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+43
62.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 43 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.0%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (G. Burkle Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4634% → 33%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
65.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 22Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
66.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 4 yds to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+3
66.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Gio Richardson for 3 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
66.6%
Isaac Lovison punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the ISU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:2670% → 71%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
70.3%
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
70.7%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett EskildsenSimilar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
70.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 6 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
71.3%
Carson Hansen run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
71.1%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
71.1%
Xavier Townsend run for no gain to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
70.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:0533% → 31%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
67.5%
Quincy Craig run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 12
OWN 5
0
67.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 12
OWN 5
+6
68.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quincy Craig for 6 yds to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
69.2%
Isaac Lovison punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:1973% → 80%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
73.0%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+15
72.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Becht,Rocco pass incomplete deep left to Brown,Carson thrown to ARI05 broken up by Dansby,Michael PENALTY ARI Pass Interference (Dansby,Michael) 15 yards from ARI37 to ARI22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
72.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 4 yds to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
72.9%
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 13Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+9
72.8%
Carson Hansen run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
73.4%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.0%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:0925% → 24%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 8 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
74.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
74.7%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
74.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
75.2%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Luke WysongSimilar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+4
75.8%
Isaac Lovison punt for 55 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 4 yds to the ISU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:4479% → 82%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
79.2%
PENALTY ISU False Start (Neal,James) 5 yards from ISU11 to ISU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+2
76.5%
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ISU 8Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+2
80.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 2 yds to the ISU 10Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+32
82.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 32 yds to the ISU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.7%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson HansenSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
83.6%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Eli GreenSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-9
83.1%
Rocco Becht sacked by Riley Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the ISU 33Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
82.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9INT
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:3623% → 21%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
77.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 18 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
77.2%
Noah Fifita run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
77.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
78.0%
Noah Fifita run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
78.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 5 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
77.8%
Noah Fifita run for 6 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-42
79.1%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Jontez Williams return for 42 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:5186% → 92%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
85.5%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+27
87.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 27 yds to the ARIZ 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
85.2%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 3Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.4%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11TD
15 plays · 69 yds · 2:1410% → 18%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
90.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 8 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
90.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 3 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
90.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
91.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 7 yds to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+6
90.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 6 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.3%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
90.8%
Noah Fifita run for 11 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
90.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Brandon Phelps for 6 yds to the ISU 28Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+4
89.8%
Noah Fifita run for 4 yds to the ISU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
90.0%
Quincy Craig run for 1 yd to the ISU 23Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+14
90.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 14 yds to the ISU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
81.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:1686% → 86%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.5%
R. Becht takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2084% → 94%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 8 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
83.8%
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+52
84.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 52 yds to the ARIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
84.7%
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.3%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.6%
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.7%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:197% → 6%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
93.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+5
92.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
93.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 6 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
93.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
93.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
93.9%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:4196% → 99%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
96.2%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+45
95.9%
Benjamin Brahmer pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 45 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:081% → 4%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
99.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+31
99.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 31 yds to the ISU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Isaiah Mizell for 7 yds to the ISU 25Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+3
99.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 3 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the ISU 19Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
99.0%
Quincy Craig run for 3 yds to the ISU 16Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+9
99.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tre Spivey for 9 yds to the ISU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Keyan BurnettSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 6 yds to the ISU 1Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the ISU 1Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tre Spivey for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 29 yds · 5:2799% → 99%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.5%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
98.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 11 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
98.8%
Abu Sama III run for 9 yds to the ISU 47Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
98.9%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
99.1%
Abu Sama III run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
99.1%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+3
99.4%
Rocco Becht run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
99.4%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.5%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Dominic OverbySimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.5%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
99.5%
Iowa State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
99.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
98.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 7 yds to the ARIZ 12Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 3
OWN 12
0
98.8%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+1
98.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 1 yd to the ARIZ 13Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
98.9%
Isaac Lovison punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the ISU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
99.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 19 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.7%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
99.6%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+22
99.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 22 yds to the ARIZ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
99.6%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 13Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-15
99.7%
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Treydan Stukes return for 15 yds to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-15
99.7%
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Treydan Stukes return for 15 yds to the ARIZ 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20INT
9 plays · 65 yds · 1:521% → 1%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
99.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 21 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 8 yds to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+17
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 17 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 13 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.2%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 6 yds to the ISU 16Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-10
99.4%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Jamison Patton return for 10 yds to the ISU 10Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-10
99.4%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Jamison Patton return for 10 yds to the ISU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
99.8%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 11Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+1
99.8%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 12Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 12
-1
99.8%
Rocco Becht run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 11Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 11
+6
99.8%
Tyler Perkins punt for 53 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 6 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
99.6%
Noah Fifita sacked by Trey Verdon for a loss of 9 yards to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 19
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 19
OWN 33
+7
99.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 7 yds to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 12
OWN 40
+10
99.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
50
+11
99.9%
Connor Moberly run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.8%
Dylan Lee run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+13
99.8%
Connor Moberly run for 13 yds to the ARIZ 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.8%
Connor Moberly run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+2
99.9%
Connor Moberly run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 16Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Connor Moberly pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
99.9%
Chase Smith 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Quincy Craig run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:22
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
-8.8
TD · Q3 11:30
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q2 12:41
Timeout Iowa State, clock 12:41
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com