ARIZ
Arizona 14 at Iowa State 39
ISU2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Jack Trice Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey play
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ARIZ · Drive 1MISSED FG · 10 plays · 50 yds
Q1 14:44
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 27
62.3%
0.0
Q1 14:16
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 6 yds to the ARIZ 33 for a 1ST down
62.3%
0.0
Q1 13:44
Ismail Mahdi run for 23 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST down
62.3%
0.0
Q1 13:07
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 4 yds to the ISU 40
59.9%
-2.4
Q1 12:50
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the ISU 38
59.8%
-0.1
Q1 12:04
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 6 yds to the ISU 32 for a 1ST down
59.8%
0.0
Q1 11:27
Noah Fifita pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 5 yds to the ISU 27
59.8%
0.0
Q1 11:01
Kris Hutson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 28
59.8%
0.0
Q1 10:22
Noah Fifita pass incomplete
59.8%
0.0
Q1 10:17
Michael Salgado-Medina 46 yd FG MISSED
60.5%
+0.8
ISU · Drive 2TD · 11 plays · 72 yds
Q1 10:17
Timeout Iowa State, clock 10:17
64.2%
+3.7
Q1 10:09
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ISU 30
64.2%
0.0
Q1 9:48
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 3 yds to the ISU 33
64.2%
0.0
Q1 9:15
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 5 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST down
64.5%
+0.3
Q1 8:24
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 36
64.8%
+0.3
Q1 7:48
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 9 yds to the ISU 45
64.4%
-0.4
Q1 7:12
Carson Hansen run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST down
65.0%
+0.6
Q1 6:40
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 44
66.1%
+1.1
Q1 6:06
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 43 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST down
65.8%
-0.3
Q1 5:56
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (G. Burkle Run For Two-point Conversion)
79.3%
+13.6
Q1 5:56
Timeout Iowa State, clock 05:56
79.0%
-0.3
ARIZ · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q1 5:50
Chase Smith kickoff for 65 yds , Ismail Mahdi return for 21 yds to the ARIZ 21
79.6%
+0.6
Q1 5:43
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 22
79.0%
-0.6
Q1 5:06
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 4 yds to the ARIZ 26
79.0%
0.0
Q1 4:27
Noah Fifita pass complete to Gio Richardson for 3 yds to the ARIZ 29
79.0%
0.0
Q1 3:57
Isaac Lovison punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the ISU 36
78.9%
-0.1
ISU · Drive 4PUNT · 8 plays · 19 yds
Q1 3:57
Timeout Iowa State, clock 03:57
79.9%
+0.9
Q1 3:50
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 41
79.8%
-0.1
Q1 3:18
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett Eskildsen
79.9%
+0.1
Q1 3:10
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 6 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST down
79.7%
-0.2
Q1 2:47
Carson Hansen run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 45
80.2%
+0.4
Q1 2:08
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 44
80.0%
-0.1
Q1 1:35
Xavier Townsend run for no gain to the ARIZ 46
78.9%
-1.2
Q1 1:24
Tyler Perkins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 7
78.4%
-0.4
ARIZ · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · -11 yds
Q1 1:17
Quincy Craig run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 5
79.0%
+0.6
Q1 0:37
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris Hunter
79.0%
0.0
Q1 0:20
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quincy Craig for 6 yds to the ARIZ 11
79.0%
0.0
Q1 0:19
Timeout Iowa State, clock 00:19
79.0%
0.0
Q1 0:12
Isaac Lovison punt for 42 yds
79.0%
0.0
ISU · Drive 6TD · 8 plays · 38 yds
Q1 0:00
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 37
75.8%
-3.2
Q2 14:55
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Becht,Rocco pass incomplete deep left to Brown,Carson thrown to ARI05 broken up by Dansby,Michael PENALTY ARI Pass Interference (Dansby,Michael) 15 yards from ARI37 to ARI22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
75.8%
0.0
Q2 14:32
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 4 yds to the ARIZ 18
75.8%
0.0
Q2 14:11
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 13
75.8%
0.0
Q2 13:33
Carson Hansen run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 4 for a 1ST down
75.6%
-0.2
Q2 13:05
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 1
75.8%
+0.2
Q2 12:41
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
85.1%
+9.4
Q2 12:41
Timeout Iowa State, clock 12:41
79.0%
-6.2
ARIZ · Drive 7PUNT · 7 plays · 13 yds
Q2 12:41
Chase Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
85.0%
+6.0
Q2 12:29
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 8 yds to the ARIZ 33
85.5%
+0.5
Q2 12:10
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST down
85.5%
0.0
Q2 11:43
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris Hutson
85.5%
+0.1
Q2 11:38
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris Hunter
85.5%
0.0
Q2 11:33
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Luke Wysong
85.5%
0.0
Q2 11:20
Isaac Lovison punt for 55 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 4 yds to the ISU 11
85.5%
0.0
ISU · Drive 8PUNT · 9 plays · 22 yds
Q2 11:20
Timeout Iowa State, clock 11:20
85.5%
-0.1
Q2 11:20
PENALTY ISU False Start (Neal,James) 5 yards from ISU11 to ISU06. NO PLAY.
85.5%
0.0
Q2 11:05
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ISU 8
85.5%
+0.1
Q2 10:34
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 2 yds to the ISU 10
85.9%
+0.3
Q2 9:47
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 32 yds to the ISU 42 for a 1ST down
85.9%
0.0
Q2 9:37
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson Hansen
85.9%
+0.1
Q2 9:33
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Eli Green
85.9%
0.0
Q2 9:25
Rocco Becht sacked by Riley Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the ISU 33
85.8%
-0.1
Q2 8:36
Tyler Perkins punt for 53 yds
86.3%
+0.5
ARIZ · Drive 9INT · 7 plays · 39 yds
Q2 8:27
Ismail Mahdi run for 18 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST down
85.7%
-0.6
Q2 7:43
Noah Fifita run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 36
85.9%
+0.3
Q2 7:02
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 41
87.4%
+1.4
Q2 6:34
Noah Fifita run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST down
87.4%
0.0
Q2 5:58
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 5 yds to the ARIZ 47
87.4%
0.0
Q2 5:44
Noah Fifita run for 6 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST down
87.2%
-0.2
Q2 4:51
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Jontez Williams return for 42 yds to the ARIZ 30
88.1%
+1.0
ISU · Drive 10TD · 5 plays · 30 yds
Q2 4:43
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 31
86.2%
-1.9
Q2 4:04
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 27 yds to the ARIZ 4 for a 1ST down
87.3%
+1.1
Q2 3:27
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 3
86.2%
-1.1
Q2 2:52
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
93.7%
+7.5
Q2 2:52
Timeout Iowa State, clock 02:52
94.2%
+0.5
ARIZ · Drive 11TD · 15 plays · 69 yds
Q2 2:46
Chase Smith kickoff for 56 yds , Ismail Mahdi return for 22 yds to the ARIZ 31
94.2%
0.0
Q2 2:36
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 8 yds to the ARIZ 39
94.2%
0.0
Q2 2:21
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 3 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST down
94.2%
0.0
Q2 1:58
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris Hunter
94.2%
0.0
Q2 1:58
Timeout Iowa State, clock 01:58
94.2%
0.0
Q2 1:55
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 7 yds to the ARIZ 49
94.2%
0.0
Q2 1:49
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 6 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST down
94.2%
0.0
Q2 1:35
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris Hutson
94.2%
0.0
Q2 1:28
Noah Fifita run for 11 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST down
94.2%
0.0
Q2 1:20
Noah Fifita pass complete to Brandon Phelps for 6 yds to the ISU 28
94.1%
-0.1
Q2 1:11
Noah Fifita run for 4 yds to the ISU 24 for a 1ST down
94.1%
0.0
Q2 0:47
Quincy Craig run for 1 yd to the ISU 23
94.1%
0.0
Q2 0:46
Timeout Arizona, clock 00:46
94.1%
0.0
Q2 0:40
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 14 yds to the ISU 9 for a 1ST down
94.0%
0.0
Q2 0:22
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
87.7%
-6.3
ISU · Drive 12END OF HALF · 3 plays · -1 yds
Q2 0:22
Ian Wagner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
88.6%
+0.9
Q2 0:16
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase Sowell
87.4%
-1.2
Q2 0:00
R. Becht takes a knee
87.6%
+0.2
ISU · Drive 13TD · 9 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Ian Wagner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
88.7%
+1.1
Q3 14:50
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 8 yds to the ISU 33
88.5%
-0.2
Q3 14:31
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST down
88.5%
0.0
Q3 13:54
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 52 yds to the ARIZ 10 for a 1ST down
88.6%
+0.1
Q3 13:29
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 5
89.4%
+0.8
Q3 12:49
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 1
89.4%
0.0
Q3 11:55
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the ARIZ 1
89.5%
+0.1
Q3 11:30
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
95.3%
+5.8
Q3 11:30
Timeout Iowa State, clock 11:30
93.8%
-1.5
ARIZ · Drive 14DOWNS · 7 plays · 18 yds
Q3 11:24
Chase Smith kickoff for 61 yds , Ismail Mahdi return for 22 yds to the ARIZ 26
95.1%
+1.3
Q3 11:15
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 31
93.8%
-1.3
Q3 10:57
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST down
94.1%
+0.3
Q3 10:21
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 6 yds to the ARIZ 42
94.2%
+0.1
Q3 10:02
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 44
94.2%
0.0
Q3 9:06
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
94.2%
0.0
Q3 8:56
Noah Fifita pass incomplete
94.2%
0.0
ISU · Drive 15TD · 4 plays · 44 yds
Q3 8:56
Timeout Iowa State, clock 08:56
95.1%
+0.9
Q3 8:49
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 46
95.1%
0.0
Q3 8:16
Benjamin Brahmer pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 45 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST down
95.1%
0.0
Q3 8:08
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
96.9%
+1.8
ARIZ · Drive 16TD · 14 plays · 74 yds
Q3 8:04
Chase Smith kickoff for 59 yds , Quincy Craig return for 20 yds to the ARIZ 26
97.0%
0.0
Q3 7:54
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST down
95.9%
-1.1
Q3 7:35
Noah Fifita pass incomplete
95.9%
0.0
Q3 7:21
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 31 yds to the ISU 32 for a 1ST down
95.9%
0.0
Q3 7:00
Noah Fifita pass complete to Isaiah Mizell for 7 yds to the ISU 25
95.8%
-0.1
Q3 6:22
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 3 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST down
95.8%
0.0
Q3 5:59
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the ISU 19
95.8%
0.0
Q3 5:40
Quincy Craig run for 3 yds to the ISU 16
95.8%
0.0
Q3 4:48
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tre Spivey for 9 yds to the ISU 7 for a 1ST down
95.4%
-0.4
Q3 4:15
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Keyan Burnett
95.3%
-0.1
Q3 3:41
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 6 yds to the ISU 1
95.3%
0.0
Q3 3:14
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the ISU 1
95.4%
+0.1
Q3 2:46
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tre Spivey for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
94.6%
-0.8
Q3 2:46
Timeout Iowa State, clock 02:46
95.6%
+1.0
ISU · Drive 17PUNT · 13 plays · 29 yds
Q3 2:46
Ian Wagner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
94.7%
-0.9
Q3 2:35
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ISU 27
95.6%
+0.9
Q3 1:57
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 11 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST down
95.6%
0.0
Q3 1:39
Abu Sama III run for 9 yds to the ISU 47
95.6%
0.0
Q3 1:26
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST down
95.6%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Abu Sama III run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 43
95.9%
+0.3
Q4 14:53
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ARIZ 43
95.9%
0.0
Q4 14:10
Rocco Becht run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 40
95.9%
0.0
Q4 13:28
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST down
95.9%
0.0
Q4 13:12
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Dominic Overby
95.9%
0.0
Q4 13:02
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 37
95.9%
0.0
Q4 12:21
Iowa State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
95.9%
0.0
Q4 12:08
Tyler Perkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 5
95.9%
0.0
ARIZ · Drive 18PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q4 12:08
Timeout Iowa State, clock 12:08
94.8%
-1.1
Q4 11:58
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 7 yds to the ARIZ 12
94.8%
0.0
Q4 11:33
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris Hutson
94.8%
0.0
Q4 11:21
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 1 yd to the ARIZ 13
94.8%
0.0
Q4 10:45
Isaac Lovison punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the ISU 41
94.8%
0.0
ISU · Drive 19INT · 8 plays · 46 yds
Q4 10:45
Timeout Iowa State, clock 10:45
95.6%
+0.8
Q4 10:34
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 19 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST down
95.6%
0.0
Q4 10:15
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 37
95.6%
0.0
Q4 9:33
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ARIZ 37
95.6%
0.0
Q4 8:50
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 22 yds to the ARIZ 15 for a 1ST down
95.6%
0.0
Q4 8:12
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 13
95.6%
0.0
Q4 7:29
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Treydan Stukes return for 15 yds to the ARIZ 19
95.6%
0.0
Q4 7:29
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Treydan Stukes return for 15 yds to the ARIZ 19
95.6%
0.0
ARIZ · Drive 20INT · 9 plays · 65 yds
Q4 7:29
Timeout Iowa State, clock 07:29
94.6%
-0.9
Q4 7:12
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 21 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST down
94.6%
0.0
Q4 6:56
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 8 yds to the ARIZ 48
94.6%
0.0
Q4 6:43
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 17 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST down
94.6%
0.0
Q4 6:17
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 13 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST down
94.5%
-0.1
Q4 6:02
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris Hunter
94.5%
0.0
Q4 5:46
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 6 yds to the ISU 16
94.5%
0.0
Q4 5:20
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Jamison Patton return for 10 yds to the ISU 10
94.6%
+0.1
Q4 5:20
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Jamison Patton return for 10 yds to the ISU 10
94.6%
0.0
ISU · Drive 21PUNT · 6 plays · 1 yds
Q4 5:05
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 11
95.8%
+1.2
Q4 4:25
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 12
95.8%
0.0
Q4 3:45
Timeout Iowa State, clock 03:45
95.9%
+0.1
Q4 3:40
Rocco Becht run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 11
95.9%
0.0
Q4 3:40
Timeout Arizona, clock 03:40
96.2%
+0.3
Q4 3:29
Tyler Perkins punt for 53 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 6 yds to the ARIZ 42
96.2%
0.0
ARIZ · Drive 22DOWNS · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q4 3:21
Noah Fifita sacked by Trey Verdon for a loss of 9 yards to the ARIZ 33
95.1%
-1.1
Q4 3:00
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris Hutson
95.1%
0.0
Q4 2:43
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 7 yds to the ARIZ 40
95.1%
0.0
Q4 2:15
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 10 yds to the 50 yard line
95.1%
0.0
ISU · Drive 23FG · 10 plays · 34 yds
Q4 2:01
Connor Moberly run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST down
96.2%
+1.1
Q4 2:00
Timeout Iowa State, clock 02:00
96.2%
0.0
Q4 1:54
Dylan Lee run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 34
96.4%
+0.1
Q4 1:53
Timeout Arizona, clock 01:53
96.4%
0.0
Q4 1:48
Connor Moberly run for 13 yds to the ARIZ 21 for a 1ST down
96.4%
0.0
Q4 1:40
Connor Moberly run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 18
96.4%
0.0
Q4 1:40
Timeout Arizona, clock 01:40
96.4%
0.0
Q4 1:26
Connor Moberly run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 16
96.4%
0.0
Q4 0:47
Connor Moberly pass incomplete
96.4%
0.0
Q4 0:43
Chase Smith 34 yd FG GOOD
96.4%
0.0
ARIZ · Drive 24END OF GAME · 2 plays · 4 yds
Q4 0:43
Chase Smith kickoff for 51 yds
96.4%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Quincy Craig run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 29
95.0%
-1.4
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 5:56
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (G. Burkle Run For Two-point Conversion)
+13.6
TD · Q2 12:41
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q2 2:52
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
+7.5