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BYU

BYU 24 at Colorado 21

COLO
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:21 · Damon Greaves punt for 46 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 12 yds to the COLO 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Pregame prior−4.1Home team on offense−4.9Garbage-time factor−3.2Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:46: Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 5 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +13.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 5:26: Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +19.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:42: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 19 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +22.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:02: Cody Hagen run for 32 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +26.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:38: Bear Bachmeier run for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 45 — BYU win probability +17.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 6:31BYU 4th & 2 at COLO 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:45BYU 4th & 8 at COLO 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−5.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:18COLO 4th & 24 at BYU 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−1.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:41BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:10COLO 4th & 9 at BYU 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:10COLO 4th & 9 at BYU 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:26BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:17COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 27, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:26BYU 4th & 2 at COLO 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−10.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00BYU 4th & 1 at COLO 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.6%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:21COLO 4th & 25 at COLO 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−5.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:07BYU 4th & 16 at COLO 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:38COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:49BYU 4th & 9 at COLO 34, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.9 ptsPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%−4.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:44COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:08COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:46BYU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:26BYU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:42COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:02BYU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0429% → 34%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 11 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
29.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
29.9%
Micah Welch run for 3 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
30.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 19 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
30.6%
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+8
30.9%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
31.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Micah Welch for 9 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
31.3%
Micah Welch run for no gain to the BYU 15Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+8
31.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
32.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:0367% → 64%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.4%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
33.9%
(09:05) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear sacked for loss of 3 yards to the BYU23 (McNeill,Amari) PENALTY COLO Face Mask (McNeill,Amari) 15 yards from BYU26 to BYU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
33.9%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
34.1%
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+8
34.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 8 yds to the COLO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
34.4%
Parker Kingston pass incomplete to LJ MartinSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-4
34.6%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 14
50
+12
35.8%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Cody Hagen for 12 yds to the COLO 38Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
35.6%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:1537% → 43%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
36.7%
Micah Welch run for 27 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
37.7%
Dre'lon Miller run for 9 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+21
38.1%
Dre'lon Miller run for 16 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (Mory Bamba) to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.9%
Dre'lon Miller run for 5 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:1159% → 58%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
41.1%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 28 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
41.1%
Bear Bachmeier run for 12 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
41.8%
Bear Bachmeier run for 11 yds to the COLO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
42.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 12 yds to the COLO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
42.4%
LJ Martin run for 7 yds to the COLO 5Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
43.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Enoch NawahineSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
44.0%
Bear Bachmeier run for no gain to the COLO 5Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 3
OPP 5
-5
45.0%
(00:51) PENALTY BYU Delay Of Game 5 yards from COLO05 to COLO10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
42.1%
Will Ferrin 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 4:4244% → 49%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.8%
Micah Welch run for 6 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
44.3%
Dre'lon Miller run for 7 yds to the COLO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
45.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 8 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+6
45.9%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
48.0%
(13:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass incomplete short left thrown to BYU40 QB hurried by Glasker,Isaiah PENALTY BYU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from BYU48 to BYU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+13
48.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 13 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
49.0%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Faletau Satuala for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+4
48.7%
Quanell Farrakhan Jr. run for 4 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-9
49.3%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Jack Kelly for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 19
OPP 39
-5
48.7%
PENALTY COLO Delay Of Game 5 yards from BYU39 to BYU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 24
OPP 44
0
48.9%
Damon Greaves punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tiger Bachmeier at the BYU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:3052% → 47%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
48.4%
Bear Bachmeier run for 11 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
49.3%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-9
50.4%
(08:58) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass complete short right to Roberts,Chase caught at BYU27, for 9 yards to the BYU27, End Of Play PENALTY BYU Holding (Sfarcioc,Kyle) 9 yards from BYU18 to BYU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 17
OWN 9
+11
51.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 11 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
52.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
53.1%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Quentin Gibson at the COLO 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:2553% → 56%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
53.1%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 32Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+7
52.8%
Micah Welch run for 7 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+13
53.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 13 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
56.2%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
57.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quentin Gibson for no gain to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
56.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 9
OPP 47
+5
55.5%
Damon Greaves punt for 46 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for 5 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 9
OPP 47
+5
55.5%
Damon Greaves punt for 46 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for 5 yds to the BYU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 94 yds · 3:1843% → 55%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
57.4%
Bear Bachmeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+6
58.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 6 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
58.9%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 15 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
59.0%
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
58.1%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 7 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+13
57.2%
LJ Martin run for 13 yds to the COLO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
56.5%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass incomplete deep left to Hagen,Cody thrown to COLO15 PENALTY COLO Holding (McKinney,D.J.) 5 yards from COLO39 to COLO34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
55.5%
(01:36) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass incomplete deep right to Kingston,Parker thrown to COLO05 PENALTY COLO Pass Interference (Hodge,Preston) 17 yards from COLO34 to COLO17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
55.1%
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the COLO 13Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+3
55.8%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the COLO 10Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+5
58.9%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 5 yds to the COLO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
45.5%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 5 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:2950% → 48%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
50.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the COLO 21Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
50.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+7
49.1%
Micah Welch run for 7 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
47.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2952% → 50%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
48.5%
Bear Bachmeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
46.7%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.5%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
49.0%
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+1
48.4%
Bear Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+6
50.2%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 47 yds , Quentin Gibson returns for 6 yds to the COLO 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5950% → 54%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
50.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 2 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
50.4%
Dre'lon Miller run for 3 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+4
53.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 4 yds to the COLO 27Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
53.5%
Damon Greaves punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:4247% → 64%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
53.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+16
53.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 16 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
51.6%
(08:54) PENALTY BYU False Start (Leausa,Austin) 5 yards from BYU45 to BYU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+15
54.3%
(08:43) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass incomplete deep left to Martin,LJ thrown to COLO20 PENALTY COLO Pass Interference (French,Martavius) 15 yards from BYU40 to COLO45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
50.5%
Parker Kingston run for 20 yds to the COLO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
49.1%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 8 yds to the COLO 17Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+5
49.4%
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the COLO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
49.8%
Parker Kingston pass incomplete to Bear BachmeierSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
49.9%
Bear Bachmeier run for 8 yds to the COLO 4Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
55.9%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
36.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3541% → 68%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
40.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 26 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
45.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 19 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
47.8%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+7
47.9%
Dre'lon Miller run for 7 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
45.9%
Dre'lon Miller run for 3 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
68.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 19 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:2538% → 67%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
62.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 19 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
60.0%
(01:56) PENALTY BYU False Start (Sfarcioc,Kyle) 5 yards from BYU42 to BYU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+2
62.7%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 2 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 17
OWN 35
0
63.5%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Cody HagenSimilar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+16
65.2%
Bear Bachmeier run for 16 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+4
61.5%
Enoch Nawahine run for 4 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
59.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Tiger BachmeierSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
59.6%
Bear Bachmeier run for 13 yds to the COLO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
32.8%
Cody Hagen run for 32 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -15 yds · 2:3042% → 39%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
42.8%
Micah Welch run for 6 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
42.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the COLO 42 Colorado Penalty, Offensive Holding (Omarion Miller) to the COLO 32Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-22
41.7%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Isaiah Glasker for a loss of 22 yards to the COLO 10Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+12
38.9%
Damon Greaves punt for 46 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 12 yds to the COLO 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 7 yds · 3:0768% → 66%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
32.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 8 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+5
29.9%
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the COLO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
29.0%
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the COLO 26Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-3
28.3%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 29Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+8
28.8%
run for 8 yds to the COLO 37 fumbled, recovered by BYU LJ MartinSimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 16
OPP 37
+55
34.1%
Will Ferrin 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2143% → 38%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
42.5%
Dre'lon Miller run for 2 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
44.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
42.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
37.7%
Damon Greaves punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:3770% → 87%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
30.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Cody Hagen for 2 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+5
30.1%
Parker Kingston run for 5 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+16
28.7%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 16 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
24.0%
LJ Martin run for 16 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
20.5%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-5
18.4%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 37Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+3
18.7%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
13.3%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:4429% → 23%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
29.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Sincere Brown for 8 yds to the COLO 12Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+7
28.1%
Micah Welch run for 7 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
25.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the COLO 24Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
22.8%
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Isaiah Glasker return for no gain to the COLO 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:3894% → 95%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
5.6%
Bear Bachmeier run for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 45Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 45
-1
5.4%
B. Bachmeier takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:02
Cody Hagen run for 32 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-26.8
TD · Q3 2:42
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 19 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+22.1
TD · Q3 5:26
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-19.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com