BYU
BYU 24 at Colorado 21
COLO2025 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2025 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey play
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COLO · Drive 1TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Will Ferrin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
42.7%
0.0
Q1 14:48
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 11 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST down
45.6%
+2.9
Q1 14:17
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the COLO 44
46.1%
+0.5
Q1 13:45
Micah Welch run for 3 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST down
47.0%
+0.9
Q1 12:57
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 19 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST down
47.0%
0.0
Q1 12:39
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the BYU 32
48.4%
+1.3
Q1 12:11
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST down
48.4%
0.0
Q1 11:31
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Micah Welch for 9 yds to the BYU 15
48.4%
0.0
Q1 11:25
Micah Welch run for no gain to the BYU 15
48.4%
0.0
Q1 11:05
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST down
48.1%
-0.3
Q1 10:23
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the BYU 3
48.4%
+0.3
Q1 9:44
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
62.2%
+13.8
BYU · Drive 2DOWNS · 10 plays · 37 yds
Q1 9:44
Buck Buchanan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
61.1%
-1.1
Q1 9:34
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 26
56.6%
-4.5
Q1 8:59
(09:05) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear sacked for loss of 3 yards to the BYU23 (McNeill,Amari) PENALTY COLO Face Mask (McNeill,Amari) 15 yards from BYU26 to BYU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
56.3%
-0.3
Q1 8:37
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
55.4%
-0.9
Q1 8:30
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 46
55.8%
+0.4
Q1 7:52
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 8 yds to the COLO 46 for a 1ST down
55.3%
-0.5
Q1 7:35
Parker Kingston pass incomplete to LJ Martin
54.7%
-0.6
Q1 7:25
LJ Martin run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line
54.7%
0.0
Q1 6:42
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Cody Hagen for 12 yds to the COLO 38
55.0%
+0.3
Q1 6:31
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
54.9%
-0.1
COLO · Drive 3TD · 4 plays · 62 yds
Q1 6:23
Micah Welch run for 27 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST down
62.0%
+7.0
Q1 5:49
Dre'lon Miller run for 9 yds to the BYU 26
62.5%
+0.6
Q1 5:21
Dre'lon Miller run for 16 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (Mory Bamba) to the BYU 5 for a 1ST down
62.8%
+0.3
Q1 5:08
Dre'lon Miller run for 5 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
73.2%
+10.4
BYU · Drive 4FG · 10 plays · 65 yds
Q1 5:08
Buck Buchanan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
72.9%
-0.3
Q1 4:56
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 28 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST down
72.2%
-0.7
Q1 4:18
Bear Bachmeier run for 12 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST down
71.8%
-0.4
Q1 3:34
Bear Bachmeier run for 11 yds to the COLO 24 for a 1ST down
70.5%
-1.3
Q1 2:52
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 12 yds to the COLO 12 for a 1ST down
70.5%
0.0
Q1 2:16
LJ Martin run for 7 yds to the COLO 5
70.5%
0.0
Q1 1:42
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Enoch Nawahine
70.5%
0.0
Q1 1:20
Bear Bachmeier run for no gain to the COLO 5
70.6%
+0.1
Q1 0:50
(00:51) PENALTY BYU Delay Of Game 5 yards from COLO05 to COLO10. NO PLAY.
71.4%
+0.8
Q1 0:45
Will Ferrin 28 yd FG GOOD
63.0%
-1.2
COLO · Drive 5PUNT · 13 plays · 31 yds
Q1 0:45
Will Ferrin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
64.2%
-7.2
Q1 0:00
Micah Welch run for 6 yds to the COLO 31
65.8%
+2.8
Q2 14:52
Dre'lon Miller run for 7 yds to the COLO 38 for a 1ST down
65.9%
+0.1
Q2 14:15
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 8 yds to the COLO 46
66.3%
+0.3
Q2 13:57
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST down
66.3%
0.0
Q2 13:21
(13:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass incomplete short left thrown to BYU40 QB hurried by Glasker,Isaiah PENALTY BYU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from BYU48 to BYU43. NO PLAY.
69.3%
+3.0
Q2 12:58
Kaidon Salter run for 13 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST down
69.4%
+0.2
Q2 12:33
Kaidon Salter sacked by Faletau Satuala for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 34
69.4%
0.0
Q2 11:56
Timeout Colorado, clock 11:56
69.7%
+0.2
Q2 11:42
Quanell Farrakhan Jr. run for 4 yds to the BYU 30
69.7%
0.0
Q2 11:09
Kaidon Salter sacked by Jack Kelly for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 39
69.8%
+0.2
Q2 10:26
PENALTY COLO Delay Of Game 5 yards from BYU39 to BYU44. NO PLAY.
72.1%
+2.3
Q2 10:18
Damon Greaves punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tiger Bachmeier at the BYU 5
71.7%
-0.4
BYU · Drive 6PUNT · 6 plays · 15 yds
Q2 10:11
Bear Bachmeier run for 11 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST down
69.2%
-2.5
Q2 9:31
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 18
69.2%
0.0
Q2 8:42
(08:58) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass complete short right to Roberts,Chase caught at BYU27, for 9 yards to the BYU27, End Of Play PENALTY BYU Holding (Sfarcioc,Kyle) 9 yards from BYU18 to BYU09. NO PLAY.
69.2%
0.0
Q2 8:29
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 11 yds to the BYU 20
69.2%
0.0
Q2 7:49
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
69.9%
+0.7
Q2 7:41
Sam Vander Haar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Quentin Gibson at the COLO 36
69.9%
0.0
COLO · Drive 7PUNT · 8 plays · 17 yds
Q2 7:35
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 32
73.0%
+3.1
Q2 7:01
Micah Welch run for 7 yds to the COLO 39
73.0%
0.0
Q2 6:23
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 13 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST down
73.0%
-0.1
Q2 5:50
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the BYU 47
73.5%
+0.5
Q2 4:58
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quentin Gibson for no gain to the BYU 47
74.3%
+0.8
Q2 4:22
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Omarion Miller
74.1%
-0.2
Q2 4:10
Damon Greaves punt for 46 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for 5 yds to the BYU 6
73.6%
-0.5
Q2 4:10
Damon Greaves punt for 46 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for 5 yds to the BYU 6
73.6%
0.0
BYU · Drive 8TD · 15 plays · 94 yds
Q2 4:04
Bear Bachmeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 10
71.6%
-2.0
Q2 3:25
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 6 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST down
71.6%
0.0
Q2 2:39
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 15 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST down
72.9%
+1.3
Q2 2:00
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST down
72.8%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Colorado, clock 02:00
72.8%
0.0
Q2 1:55
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 7 yds to the BYU 48
72.8%
0.0
Q2 1:48
LJ Martin run for 13 yds to the COLO 39 for a 1ST down
72.6%
-0.3
Q2 1:36
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass incomplete deep left to Hagen,Cody thrown to COLO15 PENALTY COLO Holding (McKinney,D.J.) 5 yards from COLO39 to COLO34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
71.9%
-0.7
Q2 1:29
(01:36) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass incomplete deep right to Kingston,Parker thrown to COLO05 PENALTY COLO Pass Interference (Hodge,Preston) 17 yards from COLO34 to COLO17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
71.3%
-0.6
Q2 1:19
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the COLO 13
71.3%
0.0
Q2 1:00
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the COLO 10
71.2%
-0.1
Q2 0:55
Timeout BYU, clock 00:55
71.4%
+0.1
Q2 0:50
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 5 yds to the COLO 5 for a 1ST down
71.4%
0.0
Q2 0:50
Timeout BYU, clock 00:50
71.4%
0.0
Q2 0:46
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 5 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
54.0%
-17.4
COLO · Drive 9DOWNS · 6 plays · 8 yds
Q2 0:39
Will Ferrin kickoff for 65 yds , Quentin Gibson return for 20 yds to the COLO 20
57.0%
+3.0
Q2 0:29
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the COLO 21
61.5%
+4.6
Q2 0:08
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Joseph Williams
61.4%
-0.1
Q2 0:03
Micah Welch run for 7 yds to the COLO 28
61.4%
0.0
Q2 0:03
Timeout Colorado, clock 00:03
60.6%
-0.8
Q2 0:00
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete
60.6%
0.0
BYU · Drive 10PUNT · 7 plays · 16 yds
Q3 15:00
Buck Buchanan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
61.8%
+1.1
Q3 14:55
Bear Bachmeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 32
56.1%
-5.6
Q3 14:17
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST down
56.8%
+0.6
Q3 13:42
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
56.8%
0.0
Q3 13:35
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 40
56.8%
0.0
Q3 12:53
Bear Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 41
55.9%
-0.9
Q3 12:26
Sam Vander Haar punt for 47 yds , Quentin Gibson returns for 6 yds to the COLO 18
55.9%
0.0
COLO · Drive 11PUNT · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q3 12:16
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 2 yds to the COLO 20
62.4%
+6.5
Q3 11:41
Dre'lon Miller run for 3 yds to the COLO 23
62.4%
0.0
Q3 11:02
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 4 yds to the COLO 27
63.6%
+1.2
Q3 10:17
Damon Greaves punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 26
63.1%
-0.5
BYU · Drive 12TD · 12 plays · 74 yds
Q3 10:08
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 3 yds to the BYU 29
58.9%
-4.2
Q3 9:30
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 16 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST down
59.5%
+0.5
Q3 8:52
(08:54) PENALTY BYU False Start (Leausa,Austin) 5 yards from BYU45 to BYU40. NO PLAY.
57.7%
-1.7
Q3 8:36
(08:43) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass incomplete deep left to Martin,LJ thrown to COLO20 PENALTY COLO Pass Interference (French,Martavius) 15 yards from BYU40 to COLO45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
58.6%
+0.8
Q3 8:25
Parker Kingston run for 20 yds to the COLO 25 for a 1ST down
57.2%
-1.4
Q3 7:45
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 8 yds to the COLO 17
56.6%
-0.6
Q3 7:06
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the COLO 12 for a 1ST down
56.6%
0.0
Q3 6:22
Parker Kingston pass incomplete to Bear Bachmeier
56.8%
+0.1
Q3 6:12
Bear Bachmeier run for 8 yds to the COLO 4
56.8%
0.0
Q3 5:34
Timeout BYU, clock 05:34
56.8%
0.0
Q3 5:30
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
56.8%
0.0
Q3 5:26
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
35.8%
-20.9
COLO · Drive 13TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q3 5:26
Will Ferrin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
37.0%
+1.2
Q3 5:17
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 26 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST down
42.4%
+5.4
Q3 4:48
Kaidon Salter run for 19 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST down
44.3%
+1.9
Q3 4:23
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the BYU 29
46.1%
+1.8
Q3 3:45
Dre'lon Miller run for 7 yds to the BYU 22
46.3%
+0.2
Q3 3:10
Dre'lon Miller run for 3 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST down
46.1%
-0.3
Q3 2:42
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 19 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
68.3%
+22.3
BYU · Drive 14TD · 10 plays · 77 yds
Q3 2:35
Buck Buchanan kickoff for 65 yds , Cody Hagen return for 23 yds to the BYU 23
67.1%
-1.3
Q3 2:27
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 19 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST down
62.7%
-4.4
Q3 1:54
(01:56) PENALTY BYU False Start (Sfarcioc,Kyle) 5 yards from BYU42 to BYU37. NO PLAY.
61.8%
-0.8
Q3 1:27
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 2 yds to the BYU 35
62.7%
+0.8
Q3 1:01
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Cody Hagen
62.7%
0.0
Q3 0:46
Bear Bachmeier run for 16 yds to the COLO 49
62.7%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Enoch Nawahine run for 4 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST down
61.1%
-1.5
Q4 14:53
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Tiger Bachmeier
60.5%
-0.6
Q4 14:47
Bear Bachmeier run for 13 yds to the COLO 32 for a 1ST down
60.8%
+0.3
Q4 14:02
Cody Hagen run for 32 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
34.3%
-26.5
COLO · Drive 15PUNT · 7 plays · -15 yds
Q4 14:02
Will Ferrin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
36.2%
+1.9
Q4 13:51
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the COLO 28
44.9%
+8.6
Q4 13:13
Micah Welch run for 6 yds to the COLO 34
44.9%
0.0
Q4 12:33
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the COLO 42 Colorado Penalty, Offensive Holding (Omarion Miller) to the COLO 32
42.7%
-2.2
Q4 12:23
Timeout BYU, clock 12:23
42.7%
0.0
Q4 12:08
Kaidon Salter sacked by Isaiah Glasker for a loss of 22 yards to the COLO 10
42.7%
0.0
Q4 11:21
Damon Greaves punt for 46 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 12 yds to the COLO 44
42.7%
0.0
BYU · Drive 16MISSED FG · 6 plays · 7 yds
Q4 11:14
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 8 yds to the COLO 36
32.1%
-10.5
Q4 10:44
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the COLO 31 for a 1ST down
32.0%
-0.1
Q4 10:09
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the COLO 26
31.2%
-0.9
Q4 9:30
LJ Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 29
31.3%
+0.1
Q4 8:11
run for 8 yds to the COLO 37 fumbled, recovered by BYU LJ Martin
30.4%
-0.9
Q4 8:07
Will Ferrin 55 yd FG MISSED
31.1%
+0.7
COLO · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q4 7:59
Dre'lon Miller run for 2 yds to the COLO 39
41.4%
+10.3
Q4 7:23
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the COLO 41
41.8%
+0.4
Q4 6:46
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Joseph Williams
41.8%
0.0
Q4 6:45
Timeout Colorado, clock 06:45
41.8%
0.0
Q4 6:38
Damon Greaves punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 30
41.8%
0.0
BYU · Drive 18PUNT · 9 plays · 36 yds
Q4 6:26
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Cody Hagen for 2 yds to the BYU 28
31.1%
-10.7
Q4 5:49
Parker Kingston run for 5 yds to the BYU 33
28.7%
-2.4
Q4 5:00
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 16 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST down
27.1%
-1.6
Q4 4:32
LJ Martin run for 16 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST down
25.7%
-1.4
Q4 3:47
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the COLO 32
25.2%
-0.5
Q4 2:59
LJ Martin run for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 37
23.9%
-1.4
Q4 2:17
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the COLO 34
22.8%
-1.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Colorado, clock 02:00
21.6%
-1.2
Q4 1:49
Sam Vander Haar punt for 30 yds
19.4%
-2.2
COLO · Drive 19INT · 4 plays · 20 yds
Q4 1:34
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Sincere Brown for 8 yds to the COLO 12
32.0%
+12.5
Q4 1:23
Micah Welch run for 7 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST down
30.4%
-1.5
Q4 1:06
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the COLO 24
30.2%
-0.3
Q4 0:50
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Isaiah Glasker return for no gain to the COLO 40
30.1%
-0.1
BYU · Drive 20END OF GAME · 2 plays · -6 yds
Q4 0:38
Bear Bachmeier run for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 45
15.0%
-15.1
Q4 0:00
B. Bachmeier takes a knee
12.9%
-2.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:02
Cody Hagen run for 32 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-26.5
TD · Q3 2:42
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 19 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+22.3
TD · Q3 5:26
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-20.9