2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:36 · Orion Phillips punt for 26 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Defense timeoutsOffense timeoutsHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:13: Cameron Dickey 1 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick) — TTU win probability +2.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q1 4:02: Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds Devon Dampier fumbled, recovered by TTU John Curry — UTAH win probability +4.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · Q4 12:33: Stone Harrington 25 Yd Field Goal — UTAH win probability +2.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q4 10:22: Wayshawn Parker 5 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick) — TTU win probability +14.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q4 8:29: Terrance Carter Jr. 24 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Stone Harrington Kick) — TTU win probability +10.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 13:26UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.7%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.8%average punt
- Q1 7:40UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt57.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:56TTU 4th & 8 at UTAH 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snapGo for it43.4%−0.134% to convertField goal43.0%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call43.4%average punt
- Q2 14:29TTU 4th & 16 at TTU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snapGo for it39.0%−1.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.2%average punt
- Q2 12:43UTAH 4th & 11 at UTAH 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it58.7%−0.925% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.6%average punt
- Q2 6:36UTAH 4th & 6 at TTU 45, tiedClose callPunted · 60.8% before the snapGo for it60.7%40% to convertField goal59.4%−1.425% to makePuntTheir call60.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 3:42TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 49, tiedClose callPunted · 43.5% before the snapGo for it43.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.0%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:48TTU 4th & 11 at UTAH 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snapGo for it43.1%−0.427% to convertField goalTheir call43.5%34% to makePunt42.7%−0.8average punt
- Q3 13:10TTU 4th & 23 at TTU 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snapGo for it38.4%−4.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%average punt
- Q3 12:05UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snapGo for it57.1%−1.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.8%average punt
- Q3 8:42TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snapGo for it43.8%−0.737% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.6%average punt
- Q3 7:38UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snapGo for it55.4%−1.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.0%average punt
- Q3 4:46TTU 4th & 9 at UTAH 39, tiedClose callPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it45.1%32% to convertField goal44.3%−0.836% to makePuntTheir call44.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 2:12UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 28, tiedClose callPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it57.3%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:33TTU 4th & 5 at UTAH 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snapGo for it46.5%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call46.7%91% to makePunt28.6%−18.2average punt
- Q4 7:36UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.9%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.3%average punt
- Q4 2:43UTAH 4th & 18 at UTAH 17, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.4%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 10:13TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.4%97% to makeGo for two40.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:29TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two83.6%−0.645% to convert
- Q4 3:41TTU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 1:53TTU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%−0.297% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3454% → 52%
Q1 14:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
52.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 3 yds to the UTAH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD8 plays · 85 yds · 2:5849% → 54%
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
51.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 5 yds to the TTU 20Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+73
50.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 73 yds to the UTAH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+12
48.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 12 yds to the UTAH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3DOWNS7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3347% → 42%
TTUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3358% → 60%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
42.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for no gain to the TTU 49Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+10
41.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 10 yds to the UTAH 41Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 8
OPP 44
+18
39.8%
Jack Burgess punt for 33 yds Texas Tech Penalty, kick catching interference (T.J. West) to the UTAH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5TD7 plays · 74 yds · 1:4439% → 42%
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
38.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the UTAH 31Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-5
37.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Jackson Bennee for no gain Utah Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the UTAH 26Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+15
36.9%
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Larry Simmons, broken up by Brenden Jordan for a 1ST down Texas Tech Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Brenden Jordan) to the UTAH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
37.6%
Devon Dampier run for 3 yds to the UTAH 44 Devon Dampier fumbled, recovered by UTAH Wayshawn ParkerSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+10
42.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds Devon Dampier fumbled, recovered by TTU John CurrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0560% → 59%
UTAHDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 19 yds · 2:2541% → 40%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
41.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Smith Snowden for 5 yds to the UTAH 35Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
40.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Smith Snowden for 3 yds to the UTAH 38Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
39.9%
Wayshawn Parker run for 4 yds to the TTU 47 Wayshawn Parker fumbled, recovered by TTU A.J. Holmes Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3863% → 63%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-16
36.7%
Behren Morton sacked by John Henry Daley for a loss of 16 yards to the TTU 31 Behren Morton fumbled, recovered by TTU Howard Sampson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 26
OWN 31
-2
37.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to J'Koby Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3237% → 34%
Q2 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 16
-3
35.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Smith Snowden for a loss of 3 yards to the UTAH 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10INT5 plays · 29 yds · 1:2767% → 68%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
33.4%
J'Koby Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 45 Texas Tech Penalty, illegal motion (Johncarlos Miller II) to the TTU 45Similar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
32.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 14 yds to the UTAH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
32.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 5 yds to the UTAH 25Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
31.9%
Behren Morton pass intercepted Jackson Bennee return for no gain to the UTAH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 35 yds · 4:0834% → 33%
Q2 9:39
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+14
32.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 14 yds to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+9
33.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
35.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Lander Barton for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 2:4070% → 73%
Q2 5:13
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
27.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 4 yds to the TTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13INT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5330% → 29%
TTUDrive 14FG9 plays · 13 yds · 1:2374% → 81%
Q2 1:37
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+12
17.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 12 yds to the UTAH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
16.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for no gain to the UTAH 39 Texas Tech Penalty, Offensive holding (Howard Sampson) to the UTAH 49Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
17.7%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Terrance Carter Jr., broken up by Nate RitchieSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 20
OPP 49
-2
17.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 49Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 22
OWN 49
+11
18.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 11 yds to the UTAH 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15FG9 plays · 61 yds · 0:4820% → 24%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 6 yds to the UTAH 31Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
21.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
20.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 5 yds to the UTAH 42Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+14
21.8%
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather for a 1ST down Texas Tech Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Dontae Balfour) to the TTU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
22.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 12 yds to the TTU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
23.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 4 yds to the TTU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · -13 yds · 1:5072% → 71%
UTAHDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4730% → 27%
Q3 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
29.8%
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Ryan Davis, broken up by Ben RobertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 3:1573% → 76%
Q3 10:46
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+18
26.8%
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 18 yds to the TTU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
23.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 4
50
-3
24.2%
Will Hammond pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the TTU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5425% → 22%
TTUDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4380% → 78%
Q3 5:31
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-2
18.3%
Will Hammond pass complete to Cameron Dickey for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1724% → 22%
Q3 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+9
24.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Wayshawn Parker for 9 yds to the UTAH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
23.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 4 yds to the UTAH 28Similar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
21.6%
Orion Phillips punt for 58 yds , Tristian Gentry returns for no gain to the TTU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22FG12 plays · 79 yds · 4:3079% → 76%
Q3 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+5
20.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 5 yds to the TTU 21Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+19
21.2%
Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 19 yds to the TTU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+33
19.6%
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 33 yds to the UTAH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 23TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1127% → 24%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
27.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 44 yds to the TTU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+5
34.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the TTU 23Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
39.0%
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Dallen Bentley, broken up by Cole Wisniewski for a 1ST down Texas Tech Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cole Wisniewski) to the TTU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
39.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the TTU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5385% → 97%
UTAHDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:536% → 5%
TTUDrive 26TD7 plays · 68 yds · 3:4797% → 98%
UTAHDrive 27INT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:581% → 1%
Q4 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 2 yds to the UTAH 27Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
0.9%
Devon Dampier sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 10 yards to the UTAH 17Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
0.9%
Devon Dampier pass intercepted Jacob Rodriguez return for no gain to the UTAH 17 Utah Penalty, Defensive holding (Spencer Fano) to the UTAH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28TD3 plays · 28 yds · 0:4098% → 100%
UTAHDrive 29Uncategorized6 plays · 21 yds · 1:250% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:22
Wayshawn Parker 5 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
-14.9
TD · Q4 8:29
Terrance Carter Jr. 24 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Stone Harrington Kick)
-10
TD · Q1 4:02
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds Devon Dampier fumbled, recovered by TTU John Curry
+4.8