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TLSA

Tulsa 19 at Oklahoma State 12

OKST
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 19, 2025 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:49 · Angus Davies punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differential
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior+2.9Home team on offense−14.0Offense timeouts−15.0Defense timeouts−16.0Garbage-time factor−6.2Score differential−4.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:49: Seth Morgan 38 Yd Field Goal — OKST win probability +14.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. FG · Q2 2:32: Seth Morgan 47 Yd Field Goal — TLSA win probability +5.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:14: Z. Flores run for 5 yds for a TD (Z. Flores pass failed) — OKST win probability +4.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:14: — OKST win probability +16.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · Q4 5:49: Logan Ward 49 Yd Field Goal — TLSA win probability +4.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 11 of 11TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 11:45OKST 4th & 6 at TLSA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:38OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01TLSA 4th & 3 at OKST 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:41TLSA 4th & 8 at OKST 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:18OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:23TLSA 4th & 1 at OKST 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−2.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:45TLSA 4th & 2 at OKST 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:49TLSA 4th & 4 at OKST 20, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:22OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:32TLSA 4th & 10 at OKST 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:19OKST 4th & 21 at OKST 41, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:14TLSA 4th & 10 at OKST 29, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−7.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:10OKST 4th & 10 at TLSA 37, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:15OKST 4th & 2 at TLSA 5, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−1.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−11.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:26TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 15, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:14OKST 4th & 1 at TLSA 5, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−3.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−12.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:22TLSA 4th & 10 at OKST 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−2.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:56OKST 4th & 15 at OKST 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:49TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:49OKST 4th & 10 at TLSA 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−5.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:19TLSA 4th & 3 at OKST 47, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%−2.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:19OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.6%−4.7
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:31TLSA 4th & 3 at OKST 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.3
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:36TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1574% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.4%
Zane Flores pass complete to Terrill Davis for 6 yds to the OKST 31Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
73.9%
Zane Flores pass complete to Josh Ford for 5 yds to the OKST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
73.4%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
50
+15
72.9%
Zane Flores run for 15 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
72.6%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 13 yds to the TLSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
72.4%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 4 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
71.5%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Christian FitzpatrickSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
71.4%
Zane Flores pass complete to Gavin Freeman for no gain to the TLSA 18Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
71.0%
Logan Ward 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0929% → 34%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+42
70.2%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 42 yds to the OKST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
69.6%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 31Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+12
68.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 12 yds to the OKST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
68.1%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Dominic Richardson, broken up by Cam SmithSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
65.7%
Braylin Presley 19 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5768% → 65%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.6%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for no gain to the OKST 25Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.9%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 2 yds to the OKST 27Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
64.7%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Josh FordSimilar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
64.5%
Wes Pahl punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:5036% → 46%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
64.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
64.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 6 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
63.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
61.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Micah Tease for 16 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
61.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 2 yds to the OKST 41Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
60.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the OKST 36Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
59.8%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+7
60.2%
Baylor Hayes run for 7 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
59.6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Jacob Emmers for no gain to the OKST 29Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
58.5%
Baylor Hayes run for 3 yds to the OKST 26Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+15
57.7%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 15 yds to the OKST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
56.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the OKST 10Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
55.1%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion Booker, broken up by Taje McCoySimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+1
55.3%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 1 yd to the OKST 9Similar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
54.3%
Seth Morgan 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 3:2352% → 46%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
52.1%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKST 22Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
51.0%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 6 yds to the OKST 28Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
50.0%
Zane Flores pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 8 yds to the OKST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
50.0%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for no gain to the OKST 36 Tulsa Penalty, substitution infraction (Seth Morgan) to the OKST 41Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 5
OWN 41
-1
50.6%
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 40Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+6
49.4%
Royal Capell run for 6 yds to the OKST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
48.1%
Freddie Brock IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKST 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
47.2%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Rodney Fields Jr.Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+1
47.3%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 1 yd to the OKST 44Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
46.0%
Wes Pahl punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 6:2256% → 53%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
44.5%
Braylin Presley run for 6 yds to the TLSA 19Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+15
44.3%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Braylin Presley for 15 yds to the TLSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
43.4%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 6 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+9
41.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 9 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
40.6%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion Booker, broken up by Parker RobertsonSimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
40.3%
Ajay Allen run for 5 yds to the OKST 46Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
38.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+4
38.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
36.2%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Jacob EmmersSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
35.9%
Ajay Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 39Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+9
35.6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 9 yds to the OKST 30Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+4
36.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Landen Lucas for 4 yds to the OKST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
34.1%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
34.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKST 22Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+2
33.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the OKST 20Similar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
47.1%
Seth Morgan 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2636% → 33%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
35.5%
Zane Flores sacked by Ray Coney for a loss of 8 yards to the OKST 17Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+1
34.6%
Gavin Freeman run for 1 yd to the OKST 18Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+15
33.1%
Zane Flores pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 15 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
33.0%
Wes Pahl punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:4259% → 73%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
41.3%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TLSA 30Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-10
40.9%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TLSA 30 Tulsa Penalty, Offensive holding (Sean Hill) to the TLSA 20Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+17
40.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 17 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+20
39.8%
Braylin Presley run for 20 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
32.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKST 40Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
32.0%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Brody Foley, broken up by Parker RobertsonSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+11
32.2%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 11 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
32.0%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
31.9%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the OKST 29Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
33.3%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
27.4%
Seth Morgan 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 1:1229% → 16%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.8%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Christian FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
28.4%
Zane Flores run for 15 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
29.6%
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 7 yds to the OKST 47Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
18.9%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 5 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
17.9%
Zane Flores pass complete to Sam Jackson V for no gain to the OKST 48 Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Josh Ford) to the OKST 37Similar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 25
OWN 37
0
16.6%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Shamar Rigby, broken up by Zach WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 25
OWN 37
+5
16.4%
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 5 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 20
OWN 42
+4
16.5%
Zane Flores run for 4 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 16
OWN 46
-5
17.1%
Oklahoma State Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the OKST 41Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 21
OWN 41
0
16.4%
Wes Pahl punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:5787% → 87%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
12.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 7 yds to the TLSA 12Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+2
12.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 14Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+4
13.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:4680% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
20.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 19 yds to the TLSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
18.7%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 4
50
-6
18.0%
Baylor Hayes run for a loss of 6 yards to the TLSA 44 Baylor Hayes fumbled, recovered by TLSA Baylor HayesSimilar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+16
17.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 16 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
16.2%
Baylor Hayes run for 6 yds to the OKST 34Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
15.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 5 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
14.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for no gain to the OKST 29Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
15.1%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Ajay AllenSimilar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
15.3%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Ajay AllenSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
17.1%
Seth Morgan 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:0321% → 18%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.8%
Zane Flores pass complete to Terrill Davis for 3 yds to the OKST 28Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
18.9%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Josh Ford, broken up by Solento SmithSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
18.5%
Zane Flores run for 12 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
22.8%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 11 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
23.6%
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 12 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
23.4%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Terrill DavisSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-6
22.8%
Zane Flores sacked by J'Dan Burnett for a loss of 6 yards to the TLSA 43Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+6
20.2%
Zane Flores pass complete to Shamar Rigby for 6 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+5
18.1%
Zane Flores run for 5 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:1489% → 92%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
10.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 35Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
10.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+3
9.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 3 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
8.3%
Richardson,Dominic rush middle , fumble by Richardson,Dominic recovered by OSU Smith,Dylan, Smith,Dylan rush. Dominic Richardson fumbled, recovered by OKST Dylan SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:1824% → 7%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
24.2%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+5
9.3%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 5 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+21
8.4%
Zane Flores pass complete to Cam Abshire for 7 yds to the TLSA 27 Tulsa Penalty, roughing passer (Devin Robinson) to the TLSA 13Similar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
9.9%
Zane Flores pass complete to Freddie Brock IV for no gain to the TLSA 13Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
10.4%
Freddie Brock IV run for 5 yds to the TLSA 8Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+3
8.4%
Zane Flores pass complete to Shamar Rigby for 3 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 2
OPP 5
-1
7.2%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4390% → 93%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
9.8%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 5Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+7
9.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 12Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+3
7.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 15Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+3
7.2%
Angus Davies punt for 53 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 3 yds to the OKST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:005% → 26%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
5.2%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Zane Flores for 4 yds to the OKST 39Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
4.9%
Zane Flores pass complete to Terrill Davis for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
50
+36
5.4%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 36 yds to the TLSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
6.1%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 11Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
5.2%
Freddie Brock IV run for 1 yd to the TLSA 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+5
4.8%
Zane Flores pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 5 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
9.7%
Z. Flores run for 5 yds for a TD (Z. Flores pass failed)Similar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+62
26.2%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:3886% → 85%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+39
14.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 39 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
12.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 44Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+8
12.6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 8 yds to the OKST 36Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-2
11.6%
Baylor Hayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 38Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 5
OPP 38
-5
14.1%
Tulsa Penalty, delay of game (Ray Coney) to the OKST 43Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
14.6%
Angus Davies punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:2519% → 18%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
19.0%
Zane Flores run for 9 yds to the OKST 18Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+1
19.6%
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 1 yd to the OKST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
18.9%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 12 yds to the OKST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
18.5%
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 2 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+17
20.2%
Zane Flores pass complete to Terrill Davis for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
50
+6
23.3%
Freddie Brock IV run for 6 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-10
23.6%
Zane Flores pass incomplete Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive holding (Bob Schick) to the OKST 46Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-1
19.9%
Zane Flores pass complete to Freddie Brock IV for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 45Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
18.6%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Terrill DavisSimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
17.6%
Wes Pahl punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5987% → 84%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
12.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 11Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 11
0
14.6%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
15.1%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Christopher GacayanSimilar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
15.7%
Angus Davies punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:0028% → 27%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
27.9%
Zane Flores pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+15
30.9%
Zane Flores pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 15 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
34.7%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Shamar RigbySimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
34.5%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Sam Jackson V, broken up by Solento SmithSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
31.3%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Christian FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
27.3%
Logan Ward 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:1887% → 88%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
13.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 11 yds to the TLSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
12.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+15
11.1%
Baylor Hayes run for 15 yds to the TLSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
10.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
12.2%
Braylin Presley run for 6 yds to the OKST 46Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-1
11.1%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 47Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
12.5%
Angus Davies punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:5321% → 20%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+23
21.2%
Zane Flores pass complete to Will Monney for 23 yds to the OKST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
21.9%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Cam AbshireSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
21.8%
Zane Flores run for 5 yds to the OKST 39Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
22.4%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Josh FordSimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
20.2%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Rodney Fields Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3592% → 98%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
8.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKST 35Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
2.8%
Baylor Hayes run for no gain to the OKST 35Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+3
2.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKST 32Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+50
1.7%
Seth Morgan 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24Uncategorized
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:234% → 4%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
4.4%
Zane Flores pass complete to Sam Jackson V for 11 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
4.8%
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 15 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
5.3%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Gavin Freeman, broken up by Solento SmithSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+32
4.2%
Zane Flores pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 32 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:14
+16.5
FG · Q2 7:49
Seth Morgan 38 Yd Field Goal
+14
FG · Q2 2:32
Seth Morgan 47 Yd Field Goal
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com