TLSA
Tulsa 19 at Oklahoma State 12
OKST2025 · Week 4 · Sep 19, 2025 · Boone Pickens Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey play
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OKST · Drive 1FG · 10 plays · 57 yds
Q1 15:00
Seth Morgan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
52.2%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Zane Flores pass complete to Terrill Davis for 6 yds to the OKST 31
55.0%
+2.8
Q1 14:37
Zane Flores pass complete to Josh Ford for 5 yds to the OKST 36 for a 1ST down
54.7%
-0.3
Q1 14:12
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
54.9%
+0.2
Q1 13:43
Zane Flores run for 15 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST down
55.6%
+0.7
Q1 13:23
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 13 yds to the TLSA 22 for a 1ST down
56.9%
+1.3
Q1 13:10
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 4 yds to the TLSA 18
56.9%
0.0
Q1 12:26
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Christian Fitzpatrick
56.9%
0.0
Q1 12:22
Zane Flores pass complete to Gavin Freeman for no gain to the TLSA 18
56.7%
-0.2
Q1 11:45
Logan Ward 35 Yd Field Goal
61.4%
+4.7
TLSA · Drive 2TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q1 11:45
Wes Pahl kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
60.9%
-0.5
Q1 11:45
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28
58.9%
-2.0
Q1 11:22
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 42 yds to the OKST 30 for a 1ST down
58.9%
0.0
Q1 10:58
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 31
55.9%
-3.0
Q1 10:25
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 12 yds to the OKST 19 for a 1ST down
55.9%
0.0
Q1 9:46
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Dominic Richardson, broken up by Cam Smith
55.9%
0.0
Q1 9:36
Braylin Presley 19 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)
40.1%
-15.7
OKST · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q1 9:36
Seth Morgan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
42.0%
+1.8
Q1 9:35
Rodney Fields Jr. run for no gain to the OKST 25
47.5%
+5.5
Q1 9:13
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 2 yds to the OKST 27
47.8%
+0.3
Q1 8:44
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Josh Ford
47.3%
-0.5
Q1 8:38
Wes Pahl punt for 42 yds
47.3%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 4FG · 15 plays · 60 yds
Q1 8:31
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 34
41.8%
-5.5
Q1 8:14
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 6 yds to the TLSA 40
41.9%
+0.1
Q1 7:55
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST down
41.0%
-0.9
Q1 7:18
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Micah Tease for 16 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST down
40.7%
-0.3
Q1 6:47
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 2 yds to the OKST 41
40.1%
-0.6
Q1 6:26
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the OKST 36
38.9%
-1.2
Q1 6:02
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Micah Tease
38.6%
-0.3
Q1 6:01
Baylor Hayes run for 7 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST down
39.4%
+0.7
Q1 5:43
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Jacob Emmers for no gain to the OKST 29
38.6%
-0.7
Q1 5:07
Baylor Hayes run for 3 yds to the OKST 26
38.6%
0.0
Q1 4:32
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 15 yds to the OKST 11 for a 1ST down
38.6%
0.0
Q1 4:01
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the OKST 10
38.6%
0.0
Q1 3:23
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion Booker, broken up by Taje McCoy
38.6%
-0.1
Q1 3:20
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 1 yd to the OKST 9
38.6%
0.0
Q1 2:41
Seth Morgan 27 Yd Field Goal
33.0%
-5.5
OKST · Drive 5PUNT · 11 plays · 19 yds
Q1 2:41
Seth Morgan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
33.8%
+0.7
Q1 2:41
Rodney Fields Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKST 22
35.7%
+1.9
Q1 2:07
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 6 yds to the OKST 28
35.4%
-0.3
Q1 1:43
Zane Flores pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 8 yds to the OKST 36 for a 1ST down
35.3%
-0.2
Q1 1:22
Rodney Fields Jr. run for no gain to the OKST 36 Tulsa Penalty, substitution infraction (Seth Morgan) to the OKST 41
35.3%
0.0
Q1 1:15
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 40
35.9%
+0.6
Q1 0:42
Royal Capell run for 6 yds to the OKST 46 for a 1ST down
35.5%
-0.4
Q1 0:03
Freddie Brock IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKST 43
35.8%
+0.3
Q2 15:00
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Rodney Fields Jr.
35.4%
-0.4
Q2 14:51
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 1 yd to the OKST 44
37.2%
+1.7
Q2 14:18
Wes Pahl punt for 43 yds
37.5%
+0.3
TLSA · Drive 6FG · 16 plays · 67 yds
Q2 14:11
Braylin Presley run for 6 yds to the TLSA 19
34.0%
-3.5
Q2 13:55
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Braylin Presley for 15 yds to the TLSA 34 for a 1ST down
34.0%
0.0
Q2 13:38
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 6 yds to the TLSA 40
34.0%
0.0
Q2 13:11
Dominic Richardson run for 9 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST down
32.7%
-1.3
Q2 12:36
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion Booker, broken up by Parker Robertson
32.7%
0.0
Q2 12:27
Ajay Allen run for 5 yds to the OKST 46
32.7%
0.0
Q2 12:02
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKST 42
32.7%
0.0
Q2 11:23
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST down
32.9%
+0.2
Q2 10:51
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Jacob Emmers
32.2%
-0.7
Q2 10:42
Ajay Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 39
32.2%
0.0
Q2 10:22
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 9 yds to the OKST 30
31.2%
-1.0
Q2 9:45
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Landen Lucas for 4 yds to the OKST 26 for a 1ST down
31.9%
+0.7
Q2 9:14
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Braylin Presley
31.2%
-0.7
Q2 9:08
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKST 22
31.2%
0.0
Q2 8:31
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the OKST 20
31.2%
0.0
Q2 7:49
Seth Morgan 38 Yd Field Goal
25.8%
-5.4
OKST · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q2 7:49
Seth Morgan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
26.6%
+0.8
Q2 7:48
Zane Flores sacked by Ray Coney for a loss of 8 yards to the OKST 17
27.0%
+0.4
Q2 7:22
Gavin Freeman run for 1 yd to the OKST 18
27.0%
0.0
Q2 6:45
Zane Flores pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 15 yds to the OKST 33
27.0%
0.0
Q2 6:22
Wes Pahl punt for 37 yds
27.0%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 8FG · 11 plays · 41 yds
Q2 6:14
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TLSA 30
26.6%
-0.4
Q2 5:45
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TLSA 30 Tulsa Penalty, Offensive holding (Sean Hill) to the TLSA 20
26.6%
0.0
Q2 5:30
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 17 yds to the TLSA 37
26.6%
0.0
Q2 5:10
Braylin Presley run for 20 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST down
26.2%
-0.4
Q2 4:37
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKST 40
25.2%
-1.0
Q2 3:57
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Brody Foley, broken up by Parker Robertson
25.2%
0.0
Q2 3:53
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 11 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST down
25.2%
0.0
Q2 3:23
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Micah Tease
23.8%
-1.4
Q2 3:13
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the OKST 29
23.8%
0.0
Q2 2:42
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Mekhi Miller
23.7%
-0.1
Q2 2:32
Seth Morgan 47 Yd Field Goal
17.3%
-6.4
OKST · Drive 9PUNT · 11 plays · 16 yds
Q2 2:32
Seth Morgan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
15.6%
-1.7
Q2 2:31
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Christian Fitzpatrick
18.8%
+3.2
Q2 2:23
Zane Flores run for 15 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST down
23.1%
+4.3
Q2 2:04
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 7 yds to the OKST 47
23.1%
0.0
Q2 1:58
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 5 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST down
23.3%
+0.2
Q2 1:50
Zane Flores pass complete to Sam Jackson V for no gain to the OKST 48 Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Josh Ford) to the OKST 37
23.9%
+0.5
Q2 1:36
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Shamar Rigby, broken up by Zach Williams
23.0%
-0.9
Q2 1:34
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 5 yds to the OKST 42
23.0%
0.0
Q2 1:27
Zane Flores run for 4 yds to the OKST 42
23.1%
+0.1
Q2 1:22
Oklahoma State Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the OKST 41
23.3%
+0.2
Q2 1:19
Wes Pahl punt for 54 yds
23.1%
-0.2
TLSA · Drive 10END OF HALF · 3 plays · 9 yds
Q2 1:19
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 7 yds to the TLSA 12
17.6%
-5.5
Q2 1:19
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 14
17.6%
0.0
Q2 0:22
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKST 35 for a 1ST down
16.6%
-1.0
TLSA · Drive 11FG · 11 plays · 46 yds
Q3 15:00
Wes Pahl kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
21.0%
+4.4
Q3 15:00
Dominic Richardson run for 19 yds to the TLSA 44 for a 1ST down
16.2%
-4.8
Q3 14:39
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
15.3%
-0.9
Q3 14:10
Baylor Hayes run for a loss of 6 yards to the TLSA 44 Baylor Hayes fumbled, recovered by TLSA Baylor Hayes
15.3%
0.0
Q3 13:29
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 16 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST down
14.5%
-0.8
Q3 13:05
Baylor Hayes run for 6 yds to the OKST 34
14.5%
0.0
Q3 12:36
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 5 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST down
14.5%
0.0
Q3 11:14
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for no gain to the OKST 29
14.5%
0.0
Q3 11:14
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Ajay Allen
14.5%
0.0
Q3 11:14
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Ajay Allen
14.5%
0.0
Q3 11:14
Seth Morgan 47 yd FG GOOD
12.2%
-2.3
OKST · Drive 12DOWNS · 10 plays · 43 yds
Q3 11:14
Seth Morgan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
12.8%
+0.6
Q3 11:13
Zane Flores pass complete to Terrill Davis for 3 yds to the OKST 28
15.4%
+2.6
Q3 10:45
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Josh Ford, broken up by Solento Smith
15.4%
+0.1
Q3 10:41
Zane Flores run for 12 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST down
15.4%
0.0
Q3 10:12
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 11 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST down
15.9%
+0.4
Q3 9:41
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 12 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST down
15.9%
0.0
Q3 9:23
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Terrill Davis
16.6%
+0.7
Q3 9:09
Zane Flores sacked by J'Dan Burnett for a loss of 6 yards to the TLSA 43
16.6%
0.0
Q3 8:46
Zane Flores pass complete to Shamar Rigby for 6 yds to the TLSA 37
16.9%
+0.3
Q3 8:10
Zane Flores run for 5 yds to the TLSA 32
16.8%
-0.1
TLSA · Drive 13FUMBLE · 4 plays · 10 yds
Q3 8:02
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 35
11.8%
-5.0
Q3 7:40
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 39
11.8%
0.0
Q3 7:26
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 3 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST down
11.5%
-0.3
Q3 6:48
Richardson,Dominic rush middle , fumble by Richardson,Dominic recovered by OSU Smith,Dylan, Smith,Dylan rush. Dominic Richardson fumbled, recovered by OKST Dylan Smith
10.7%
-0.8
OKST · Drive 14DOWNS · 7 plays · 36 yds
Q3 6:33
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 39
14.5%
+3.8
Q3 6:11
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 5 yds to the TLSA 34
14.5%
0.0
Q3 5:52
Zane Flores pass complete to Cam Abshire for 7 yds to the TLSA 27 Tulsa Penalty, roughing passer (Devin Robinson) to the TLSA 13
14.5%
0.0
Q3 5:32
Zane Flores pass complete to Freddie Brock IV for no gain to the TLSA 13
14.5%
0.0
Q3 5:01
Freddie Brock IV run for 5 yds to the TLSA 8
13.8%
-0.7
Q3 4:42
Zane Flores pass complete to Shamar Rigby for 3 yds to the TLSA 5
13.8%
0.0
Q3 4:15
Rodney Fields Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 6
13.8%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 15PUNT · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q3 4:09
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 5
7.9%
-5.9
Q3 3:35
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 12
7.9%
0.0
Q3 3:02
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 15
7.9%
0.0
Q3 2:26
Angus Davies punt for 53 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 3 yds to the OKST 35
7.9%
0.0
OKST · Drive 16TD · 8 plays · 65 yds
Q3 2:14
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Zane Flores for 4 yds to the OKST 39
12.6%
+4.7
Q3 1:41
Zane Flores pass complete to Terrill Davis for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
13.0%
+0.4
Q3 1:28
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 36 yds to the TLSA 14 for a 1ST down
13.1%
+0.2
Q3 1:00
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 11
13.3%
+0.2
Q3 0:23
Freddie Brock IV run for 1 yd to the TLSA 10
13.5%
+0.2
Q4 15:00
Zane Flores pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 5 yds to the TLSA 5
13.5%
0.0
Q4 14:14
Z. Flores run for 5 yds for a TD (Z. Flores pass failed)
15.6%
+2.1
Q4 14:14
33.8%
+18.2
TLSA · Drive 17PUNT · 7 plays · 39 yds
Q4 14:14
Logan Ward kickoff for 60 yds , Braylin Presley return for 13 yds to the TLSA 18
14.2%
-19.5
Q4 14:00
Dominic Richardson run for 39 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST down
12.4%
-1.8
Q4 13:23
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 44
11.2%
-1.3
Q4 12:51
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 8 yds to the OKST 36
10.9%
-0.2
Q4 12:15
Baylor Hayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 38
10.9%
0.0
Q4 11:28
Tulsa Penalty, delay of game (Ray Coney) to the OKST 43
10.4%
-0.6
Q4 11:22
Angus Davies punt for 34 yds
10.4%
0.0
OKST · Drive 18PUNT · 10 plays · 36 yds
Q4 11:21
Zane Flores run for 9 yds to the OKST 18
13.3%
+2.9
Q4 10:59
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 1 yd to the OKST 19 for a 1ST down
13.3%
0.0
Q4 10:29
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 12 yds to the OKST 31 for a 1ST down
12.9%
-0.4
Q4 10:00
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 2 yds to the OKST 33
12.9%
0.0
Q4 9:23
Zane Flores pass complete to Terrill Davis for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
14.7%
+1.8
Q4 9:02
Freddie Brock IV run for 6 yds to the TLSA 44
14.9%
+0.2
Q4 8:43
Zane Flores pass incomplete Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive holding (Bob Schick) to the OKST 46
14.9%
0.0
Q4 8:31
Zane Flores pass complete to Freddie Brock IV for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 45
14.0%
-0.9
Q4 8:04
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Terrill Davis
13.8%
-0.3
Q4 7:56
Wes Pahl punt for 50 yds
13.8%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 19PUNT · 4 plays · 6 yds
Q4 7:48
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 11
10.6%
-3.2
Q4 7:08
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Dominic Richardson
10.6%
0.0
Q4 7:04
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Christopher Gacayan
10.6%
0.0
Q4 6:49
Angus Davies punt for 45 yds
10.6%
0.0
OKST · Drive 20FG · 6 plays · 24 yds
Q4 6:49
Zane Flores pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the TLSA 47
14.0%
+3.4
Q4 6:25
Zane Flores pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 15 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST down
16.1%
+2.1
Q4 6:11
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Shamar Rigby
16.4%
+0.3
Q4 6:05
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Sam Jackson V, broken up by Solento Smith
16.4%
0.0
Q4 5:54
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Christian Fitzpatrick
16.4%
0.0
Q4 5:49
Logan Ward 49 Yd Field Goal
20.4%
+4.0
TLSA · Drive 21PUNT · 8 plays · 36 yds
Q4 5:49
Logan Ward kickoff for 63 yds , Braylin Presley return for 15 yds to the TLSA 17
32.5%
+12.1
Q4 5:37
Dominic Richardson run for 11 yds to the TLSA 28 for a 1ST down
25.0%
-7.5
Q4 5:03
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 31
23.3%
-1.7
Q4 4:21
Baylor Hayes run for 15 yds to the TLSA 46 for a 1ST down
15.1%
-8.2
Q4 3:35
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 48
12.8%
-2.3
Q4 3:30
Braylin Presley run for 6 yds to the OKST 46
12.8%
0.0
Q4 3:24
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 47
12.8%
0.0
Q4 3:19
Angus Davies punt for 36 yds
12.8%
0.0
OKST · Drive 22DOWNS · 5 plays · 28 yds
Q4 3:12
Zane Flores pass complete to Will Monney for 23 yds to the OKST 34 for a 1ST down
18.2%
+5.4
Q4 2:51
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Cam Abshire
18.3%
+0.1
Q4 2:40
Zane Flores run for 5 yds to the OKST 39
18.3%
0.0
Q4 2:23
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Josh Ford
16.4%
-1.9
Q4 2:19
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Rodney Fields Jr.
14.9%
-1.5
TLSA · Drive 23MISSED FG · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q4 2:06
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKST 35
11.2%
-3.7
Q4 1:55
Baylor Hayes run for no gain to the OKST 35
11.2%
0.0
Q4 1:16
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKST 32
11.2%
-0.1
Q4 0:31
Seth Morgan 50 yd FG MISSED
11.5%
+0.4
OKST · Drive 24Uncategorized · 4 plays · 26 yds
Q4 0:25
Zane Flores pass complete to Sam Jackson V for 11 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST down
15.0%
+3.5
Q4 0:17
Zane Flores pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 15 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST down
15.0%
0.0
Q4 0:10
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Gavin Freeman, broken up by Solento Smith
15.6%
+0.6
Q4 0:02
Zane Flores pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 32 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST down
15.6%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:14
Logan Ward kickoff for 60 yds , Braylin Presley return for 13 yds to the TLSA 18
-19.5
INT · Q4 14:14
+18.2
TD · Q1 9:36
Braylin Presley 19 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)
-15.7