Try the model
BYU

BYU 34 at East Carolina 13

ECU
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:42 · Ryan Leavy punt for 50 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for 12 yds to the BYU 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−14.9Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:56: Katin Houser pass intercepted Evan Johnson return for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +12.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:33: Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 20 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +11.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:29: Bear Bachmeier run for 16 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +6.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:11: Katin Houser run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK) — ECU win probability +5.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:44: LJ Martin run for 41 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:42ECU 4th & 5 at BYU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58BYU 4th & 7 at ECU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:42ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 25, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:22BYU 4th & 1 at ECU 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:23ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 28, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:23ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 28, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:53BYU 4th & 13 at BYU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:18ECU 4th & 7 at BYU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:50BYU 4th & 5 at ECU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:59BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:17BYU 4th & 5 at ECU 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:22ECU 4th & 24 at ECU 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−3.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:56ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.4%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:27ECU 4th & 7 at BYU 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−8.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:26ECU 4th & 4 at BYU 15, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:26ECU 4th & 4 at BYU 15, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:21BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 0:56BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:33BYU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:29BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:11ECU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:44BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0534% → 34%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
33.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 4 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
33.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 5 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-4
34.2%
Katin Houser run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
34.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Brock SpaldingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:3866% → 65%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
34.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+17
34.1%
LJ Martin run for 17 yds to the ECU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
34.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Sione Moa for 5 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+13
34.3%
LJ Martin run for 13 yds to the ECU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
34.4%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 26Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-5
34.8%
PENALTY BYU False Start (Tupou,Ikinasio) 5 yards from ECU24 to ECU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+8
35.2%
LJ Martin run for 8 yds to the ECU 21Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+40
35.1%
Will Ferrin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0435% → 35%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
35.1%
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the ECU 23Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+2
35.1%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
34.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Yannick SmithSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+12
34.7%
Ryan Leavy punt for 50 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for 12 yds to the BYU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:1165% → 64%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
35.3%
Cody Hagen run for 2 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
35.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Carsen RyanSimilar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
35.5%
(07:57) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass incomplete deep left to Roberts,Chase thrown to ECU34 PENALTY ECU Offside (DuJour,Kendrick) 5 yards from BYU39 to BYU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+39
35.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 24 yds to the ECU 32 for a 1ST down East Carolina Penalty, Targeting (Teagan Wilk) to the ECU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
34.8%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the ECU 14Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-2
35.0%
Bear Bachmeier run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 16Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+8
35.5%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 8 yds to the ECU 8Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
36.0%
LJ Martin run for no gain to the ECU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5036% → 36%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
35.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 13 yds to the ECU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
35.8%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 19Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+3
35.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ECU 22Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-5
35.5%
PENALTY ECU False Start (Weaver,Bryce) 5 yards from ECU22 to ECU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+11
35.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 11 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
35.6%
Ryan Leavy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tiger Bachmeier at the BYU 29Similar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
35.6%
Ryan Leavy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tiger Bachmeier at the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2863% → 62%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
37.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-5
37.2%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 10Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 15
OWN 10
+2
37.4%
Sione Moa run for 2 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
38.0%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:2738% → 40%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
37.9%
London Montgomery run for 33 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
38.7%
London Montgomery run for 1 yd to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
38.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+2
38.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 2 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+36
40.1%
Nick Mazzie 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:1061% → 63%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
38.7%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+9
39.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Sione Moa for 9 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+13
39.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 13 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+40
38.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 40 yds to the ECU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
36.8%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 12 yds to the ECU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
36.9%
Bear Bachmeier run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 12Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
37.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 7 yds to the ECU 5Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
37.6%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Carsen RyanSimilar
Q2 10:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
36.8%
Will Ferrin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9INT
21 plays · 69 yds · 6:1638% → 40%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
37.9%
PENALTY ECU False Start (Bell,Darius) 5 yards from ECU25 to ECU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
37.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Parker Jenkins for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 19Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
37.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+27
36.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 27 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
39.9%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-10
40.1%
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin rush middle for 12 yards gain to the BYU39 (Glasker,Isaiah) PENALTY ECU Holding (Riles,Desirrio) 10 yards from ECU49 to ECU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 17
OWN 39
-16
38.4%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Tanner Wall return for 16 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 17
OWN 39
0
38.4%
(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass intercepted by Wall,Tanner at ECU40 Wall,Tanner return 16 yards to the ECU24 (McCrimon,Jimarion) PENALTY BYU Holding declined BYU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ECU39 to ECU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+1
38.8%
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the ECU 45Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+13
36.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 13 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.7%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
38.4%
Katin Houser run for 5 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+5
38.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
39.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 15 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
40.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 8 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+3
40.1%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the BYU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
40.2%
Jayvontay Conner run for no gain to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-11
40.4%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Evan Johnson return for 11 yds to the BYU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:2562% → 62%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
37.6%
LJ Martin run for 14 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
36.3%
Sione Moa run for 3 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
36.3%
Sione Moa run for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-10
34.9%
(02:04) Shotgun Moa,Sione rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BYU48 (Merrell,Kevon; Reason,Rasheed) PENALTY BYU Holding (Jatta,Isaiah) 10 yards from BYU41 to BYU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
37.6%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+8
38.6%
Sione Moa run for 8 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
38.1%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-4
25.8%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Evan Johnson return for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:5127% → 25%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 15 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
27.6%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Desirrio RilesSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
27.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 8 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-8
27.4%
Katin Houser sacked by Jack Kelly for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 40Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
25.3%
Ryan Leavy punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:3073% → 74%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
27.4%
LJ Martin run for 12 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
26.2%
Cody Hagen run for 8 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
25.8%
Parker Kingston pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
26.5%
Sione Moa run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
50
0
25.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Cody HagenSimilar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 10
50
+5
25.0%
Parker Kingston run for 5 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
25.4%
Sione Moa run for no gain to the ECU 45Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
26.0%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 3:5526% → 23%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
25.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the ECU 5Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+13
25.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 13 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
25.7%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the ECU 18Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
25.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 9 yds to the ECU 27Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
25.1%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the ECU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
25.6%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
25.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the ECU 30Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-5
24.1%
(08:08) PENALTY ECU False Start (Weaver,Bryce) 5 yards from ECU30 to ECU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 14
OWN 25
-10
23.7%
Katin Houser sacked by Jack Kelly for a loss of 10 yards to the ECU 15Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 24
OWN 15
0
23.1%
Ryan Leavy punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:3577% → 89%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
23.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 27 yds to the ECU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
11.5%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 20 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16FG
20 plays · 68 yds · 4:0615% → 16%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
14.5%
PENALTY ECU False Start (Spalding,Brock) 5 yards from ECU25 to ECU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
14.3%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Payton MangrumSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+18
14.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Payton Mangrum for 18 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
15.4%
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-5
15.6%
PENALTY ECU False Start (Smith,Yannick) 5 yards from ECU41 to ECU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
14.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Payton MangrumSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+8
13.9%
Katin Houser run for 8 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+11
14.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 11 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
15.5%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Payton MangrumSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+21
15.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to London Montgomery for 21 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
16.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Brock SpaldingSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
15.6%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+4
15.0%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass incomplete short middle to Smith,Yannick thrown to BYU15 PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Akana,Tausili) 4 yards from BYU22 to BYU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
15.8%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass incomplete short left to Montgomery,London thrown to BYU03, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Kaufusi,Ace) 13 yards from BYU18 to BYU05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
15.8%
(03:39) PENALTY ECU False Start (Mangrum,Payton) 5 yards from BYU05 to BYU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
15.7%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
15.5%
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
14.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jayvontay ConnerSimilar
Q3 2:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
16.4%
Nick Mazzie 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:4589% → 98%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
11.5%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 19 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
11.2%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 35Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+3
11.0%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+10
11.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Sione Moa for 10 yds to the ECU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
10.0%
(00:14) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass complete short right to Ryan,Carsen caught at ECU15, for 9 yards to the ECU13 (Reason,Rasheed) PENALTY BYU Holding (Jatta,Isaiah) 10 yards from ECU22 to ECU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+10
10.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 10 yds to the ECU 22Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+16
8.9%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 16 yds to the ECU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
8.3%
(13:36) Shotgun Martin,LJ rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ECU03 (Riddle,Ja'Marley; Lampley,J.D.) PENALTY BYU Personal Foul (Gentry,Andrew) 15 yards from ECU06 to ECU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 21
+5
8.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 5 yds to the ECU 16Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
2.3%
Bear Bachmeier run for 16 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18TD
14 plays · 97 yds · 4:083% → 9%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
2.8%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 2Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
2.6%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Parker JenkinsSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 11
OWN 2
-1
2.6%
(11:50) PENALTY ECU False Start (Smith,Yannick) 1 yard from ECU02 to ECU01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 12
OWN 1
+22
2.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 22 yds to the ECU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+38
2.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 38 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
3.0%
Parker Jenkins run for 6 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
3.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
3.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 13 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
3.1%
Katin Houser run for 5 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
3.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 4 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
3.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the BYU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
4.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the BYU 2Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.4%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2394% → 99%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
6.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Cody Hagen for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+21
6.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 6 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST down East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Kamaurri McKinley) to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
5.2%
(07:17) Shotgun Martin,LJ rush right for 4 yards gain to the ECU43 (Merrell,Kevon) PENALTY BYU Holding (Nead,Keayen) 10 yards from ECU47 to BYU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+7
5.3%
Sione Moa run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 13
50
-1
4.8%
Enoch Nawahine run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+14
4.8%
Bear Bachmeier run for 14 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
4.0%
Cody Hagen run for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 43Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 16
OPP 43
+2
3.6%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+41
0.9%
LJ Martin run for 41 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
Q4 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.9%
East Carolina Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 65 yds · 1:561% → 1%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
1.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 13 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
1.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 11 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
1.2%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
1.1%
BYU Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Therrian Alexander III) to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
1.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 14 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
1.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 1 yd to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
1.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 4 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+9
1.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 9 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 4
OPP 15
0
1.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jayvontay ConnerSimilar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 4
OPP 15
0
1.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jayvontay ConnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:5899% → 100%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
0.6%
Enoch Nawahine run for 5 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
0.5%
McCae Hillstead run for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
0.5%
Enoch Nawahine run for 1 yd to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
0.3%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22Uncategorized
1 play · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
0.6%
TJ Engleman Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:56
Katin Houser pass intercepted Evan Johnson return for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q3 6:33
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 20 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q4 12:29
Bear Bachmeier run for 16 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com