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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:33 · Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Omarion Miller
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:37: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Sincere Brown for 68 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +6.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:08: Simeon Price run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +6.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:55: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 47 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +7.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:25: Kaden Anderson pass complete to Eric Richardson for 41 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) — WYO win probability +8.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:32: Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) — WYO win probability +6.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 12:44WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it20.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.6%average punt
- Q1 8:46COLO 4th & 10 at WYO 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snapGo for it78.1%−0.130% to convertField goal78.0%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call78.2%average punt
- Q1 5:04WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 43, tiedClose callPunted · 23.0% before the snapGo for it23.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:39WYO 4th & 10 at COLO 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snapGo for it20.5%−0.524% to convertField goalTheir call21.0%88% to makePunt17.0%−4.0average punt
- Q2 5:50WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 26, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it16.6%−0.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q2 3:33COLO 4th & 7 at WYO 35, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.4%37% to convertField goal83.2%−0.245% to makePunt82.6%−0.7average punt
- Q2 1:17WYO 4th & 12 at midfield, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it9.5%−0.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q2 0:09COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 35, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snapGo for it88.4%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.0%average punt
- Q3 9:55COLO 4th & 4 at WYO 48, up 18Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snapGo for it94.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.9%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:30WYO 4th & 9 at COLO 19, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.830% to convertField goalTheir call5.9%77% to makePunt1.3%−4.6average punt
- Q4 11:21COLO 4th & 5 at WYO 16, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.1%−0.239% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%81% to makePunt93.6%−2.6average punt
- Q4 0:17WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 33, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.4%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 14:12COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:37COLO Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.9%97% to makeGo for two81.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:08COLO Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%97% to makeGo for two89.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:55COLO Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:25WYO Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.6%97% to makeGo for two6.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:32WYO Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.1%97% to makeGo for two6.7%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 1:46COLO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0225% → 26%
Q1 13:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
74.5%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass incomplete deep left to Sargent,Jaylen thrown to COLO35 broken up by McKinney,D.J. PENALTY COLO Pass Interference (McKinney,D.J.) 15 yards from WYO28 to WYO43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
74.4%
Bart Edmiston punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dekalon Taylor at the COLO 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:5874% → 73%
WYODrive 3PUNT11 plays · 23 yds · 3:3527% → 28%
Q1 7:19
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+10
73.1%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass incomplete short right to Durr,Chris thrown to WYO24 broken up by Hodge,Preston PENALTY COLO Pass Interference (Hodge,Preston) 10 yards from WYO14 to WYO24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+8
72.9%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass incomplete short left to Durr,Chris thrown to WYO34 broken up by Hodge,Preston PENALTY COLO Pass Interference (Hodge,Preston) 8 yards from WYO27 to WYO35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
72.2%
Bart Edmiston punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dekalon Taylor at the COLO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD14 plays · 85 yds · 5:4472% → 77%
Q1 4:21
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+18
72.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 18 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+9
72.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 9 yds to the WYO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+29
77.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 29 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5FG13 plays · 65 yds · 4:2623% → 26%
Q2 12:23
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+9
74.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylan Bean for 9 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+13
74.3%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Sam Scott for 13 yds to the COLO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
74.3%
(10:46) PENALTY WYO False Start (Schoenfeld,Isaac) 5 yards from COLO08 to COLO13. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6TD6 plays · 81 yds · 1:4874% → 80%
WYODrive 7PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3619% → 18%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.9%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for no gain to the WYO 25Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
81.6%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden rush right for 10 yards gain to the WYO35 (Hodge,Preston), out of bounds PENALTY WYO Holding (Barnett,Caden) 10 yards from WYO25 to WYO15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+12
82.3%
Bart Edmiston punt for 53 yds , Quentin Gibson returns for 12 yds to the COLO 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD11 plays · 67 yds · 2:3381% → 91%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
81.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 16 yds to the COLO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+9
82.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 9 yds to the WYO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+15
83.2%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass incomplete deep left to Miller,Omarion thrown to WYO00 broken up by Grant,Markie PENALTY WYO Pass Interference (Grant,Markie) 15 yards from WYO35 to WYO20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
84.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 19 yds to the WYO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 1:4413% → 12%
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
87.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Evan Svoboda for 27 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:5891% → 89%
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+15
91.5%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass incomplete short right thrown to COLO19 PENALTY WYO Roughing The Passer (Westland,Tyce) 15 yards from COLO15 to COLO30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
91.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Isaiah Hardge for 5 yds to the COLO 35Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+16
89.1%
Damon Greaves punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WYO 22 , Andrew Johnson returns for 16 yds to the WYO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0088% → 97%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
96.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 47 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:174% → 12%
COLODrive 14PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1493% → 93%
Q3 11:34
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+8
93.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 8 yds to the WYO 47Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-5
93.0%
(11:04) PENALTY COLO False Start (Harden,Kareem) 5 yards from WYO47 to COLO48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+4
93.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 4 yds to the WYO 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15FG13 plays · 73 yds · 6:188% → 10%
COLODrive 16FUMBLE6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0694% → 94%
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
93.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 12 yds to the COLO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
94.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 5 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+44
94.3%
Micah Welch run for 44 yds to the WYO 1 Micah Welch fumbled, recovered by WYO Justin TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17SF3 plays · -1 yds · 1:088% → 5%
COLODrive 18MISSED FG7 plays · 42 yds · 3:2396% → 96%
Q4 14:02
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+33
96.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 18 yds to the WYO 36 for a 1ST down Wyoming Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dainsus Miller) to the WYO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+3
96.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Charlie Williams for 3 yds to the WYO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19TD14 plays · 80 yds · 6:424% → 10%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
96.3%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 6 yds to the WYO 40Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
96.3%
Samuel Harris run for no gain to the WYO 40 Samuel Harris fumbled, recovered by WYO Samuel HarrisSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
96.5%
PENALTY WYO Delay Of Game (Anderson,Kaden) 5 yards from WYO44 to WYO39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
96.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Sam Scott for 23 yds to the COLO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
90.3%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3792% → 99%
WYODrive 21END OF GAME6 plays · 16 yds · 1:422% → 2%
Q4 0:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
98.3%
Landon Sims pass complete to Clay Nanke for 6 yds to the WYO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:25
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Eric Richardson for 41 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q3 13:55
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 47 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 7:37
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Sincere Brown for 68 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+6.9