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ASU

Arizona State 27 at Baylor 24

BAY
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:51 · Kanyon Floyd punt for 47 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 31 yds to the BAY 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+8.4Home team on offense−0.8Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:08: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +14.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:02: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +30.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:29: Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 19 yds for a TD (Jordyn Tyson pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — ASU win probability +39.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:52: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 33 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +39.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Jesus Gomez 43 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +35.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ASU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 8:21ASU 4th & 13 at BAY 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:08BAY 4th & 10 at ASU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:51ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:41BAY 4th & 2 at ASU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:53ASU 4th & 3 at BAY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:50ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:46BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:39ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:06ASU 4th & 5 at BAY 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−11.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:33BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:38ASU 4th & 1 at BAY 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−4.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−18.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:35ASU 4th & 16 at BAY 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−5.8
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−16.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:51BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.2%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:17BAY 4th & 1 at ASU 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−8.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−7.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00ASU 4th & 10 at BAY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−15.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−26.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:26ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:08BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:02BAY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−1.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:29ASU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    72.8%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:52BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:3961% → 61%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
61.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 13 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
61.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 1 yd to the BAY 39Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+19
61.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 19 yds Josh Cameron fumbled, recovered by ASU Adrian WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2FG
17 plays · 45 yds · 5:3639% → 40%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
61.0%
Raleek Brown run for 14 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
60.9%
Raleek Brown run for 4 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
60.8%
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
60.7%
Sam Leavitt run for 5 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
60.6%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the BAY 32Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
60.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-10
60.6%
Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BAY 26Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+5
60.4%
Sam Leavitt run for 5 yds to the BAY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
60.2%
Kanye Udoh run for 3 yds to the BAY 18Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
60.1%
Kanye Udoh run for 8 yds to the BAY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
60.0%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Obigbo,Jimeto) 5 yards from BAYLOR10 to BAYLOR15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+2
60.0%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the BAY 13Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
59.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Khamari AndersonSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
60.2%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q1 8:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
60.3%
Jesus Gomez 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:0060% → 60%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
59.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 15 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
59.8%
Bryson Washington run for 7 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
60.2%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
60.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 13 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
60.6%
Caden Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 49Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+8
59.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+5
60.1%
Caden Knighten run for 5 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
60.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
60.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for no gain to the ASU 36Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
59.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+53
60.4%
Connor Hawkins 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:0140% → 40%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
60.4%
Raleek Brown run for 12 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
60.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 11 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
59.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
59.3%
Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the ASU 42Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-6
59.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 4 yds to the ASU 46 Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malik McClain) to the ASU 36Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+3
60.2%
Kyson Brown run for 3 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+31
60.4%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 47 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 31 yds to the BAY 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:5762% → 61%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
61.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 4 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
62.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 8 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
62.3%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
62.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+15
61.9%
Bryson Washington run for 15 yds to the ASU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
62.7%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the ASU 23Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
62.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 2 yds to the ASU 21Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+4
62.2%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the ASU 17Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 2
OPP 17
0
61.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 6:0341% → 56%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
59.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 12 yds to the ASU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
58.9%
Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+25
58.7%
Sam Leavitt run for 10 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST down Baylor Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
57.0%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
57.1%
Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+4
57.0%
Raleek Brown run for 4 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+4
57.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 4 yds to the BAY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
55.5%
Raleek Brown run for 5 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+14
55.1%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete deep right to McClain,Malik thrown to BAYLOR00 PENALTY BAYLOR Pass Interference (Williams III,Tevin) 14 yards from BAYLOR27 to BAYLOR13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
55.0%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam rush left for 6 yards gain to the BAYLOR07 (Jenkins,Caden) PENALTY ASU Illegal Formation 5 yards from BAYLOR13 to BAYLOR18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+6
55.2%
Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the BAY 12Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+3
53.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 3 yds to the BAY 9Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+8
54.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 8 yds to the BAY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.1%
Sam Leavitt run for no gain to the BAY 1Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.2%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:0749% → 64%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
48.5%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short right to Cameron,Josh thrown to BAYLOR45 PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Abney II,Keith) 15 yards from BAYLOR27 to BAYLOR42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
50.0%
Caden Knighten run for no gain to the BAY 42Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+23
48.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 23 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
51.7%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Keyshaun Elliott for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 37Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+4
49.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 4 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+15
48.6%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short left to Brown IV,Louis thrown to ASU15 PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Robinson,Javan) 15 yards from ASU33 to ASU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
49.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Caden Knighten for 10 yds to the ASU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
64.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1044% → 42%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.4%
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 27 Raleek Brown fumbled, recovered by ASU Raleek BrownSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
56.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for no gain to the ASU 27Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
57.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Khamari AndersonSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
58.2%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:4659% → 58%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
58.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 9 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
61.2%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
61.1%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short right to Washington,Bryson thrown to ASU49 QB hurried by Smith,Clayton PENALTY BAYLOR Holding (Fugar,Sidney) 10 yards from BAYLOR46 to BAYLOR36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
58.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Bryson WashingtonSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 20
OWN 36
0
58.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Bryson WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 20
OWN 36
+11
57.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 11 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
57.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4043% → 44%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
56.7%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the ASU 2Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
56.5%
Sam Leavitt run for 2 yds to the ASU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1543% → 43%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.6%
Raleek Brown run for 5 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
55.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Malik McClain for 11 yds to the ASU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
54.2%
Raleek Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 40Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+6
55.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 6 yds to the ASU 46Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
54.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jaren HamiltonSimilar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
56.7%
Matt McKenzie punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:5060% → 59%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
59.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
59.5%
Bryson Washington run for 8 yds to the BAY 23Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+9
58.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the BAY 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4848% → 52%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
51.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 3 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
51.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 2 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+6
52.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 6 yds to the BAY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
50.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 14 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
50.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 3 yds to the BAY 4Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
50.8%
Kanye Udoh run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 5Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q3 8:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+21
48.0%
Jesus Gomez 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2051% → 48%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
51.4%
Baylor Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
50.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
49.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
48.4%
Palmer Williams punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Raleek Brown at the ASU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:4651% → 56%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
48.7%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete deep right to Hamilton,Jaren thrown to BAYLOR35 PENALTY BAYLOR Pass Interference (Williford,Caldra) 15 yards from ASU18 to ASU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
47.8%
Raleek Brown run for 8 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
45.9%
Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the ASU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
45.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 5 yds to the ASU 49Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
44.9%
Sam Leavitt run for 5 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
43.4%
Kyson Brown run for 6 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+15
42.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 15 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.2%
Raleek Brown run for no gain to the BAY 25Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
41.4%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass complete short left to Metayer,Chamon caught at BAYLOR22, for 3 yards to the BAYLOR22 (Redding,Jacob), out of bounds PENALTY ASU Holding (Atkins,Joshua) 10 yards from BAYLOR25 to BAYLOR35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+17
42.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Derek Eusebio for 17 yds to the BAY 18Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
42.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 2 yds to the BAY 16Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
44.2%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the BAY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0947% → 47%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
46.7%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
47.1%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 25Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+5
45.8%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
47.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Keith Abney II return for no gain to the BAY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2561% → 68%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
39.4%
Sam Leavitt run for 27 yds to the BAY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
37.1%
Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the BAY 9Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-7
36.7%
Sam Leavitt run for a loss of 7 yards to the BAY 16Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
40.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Javan RobinsonSimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
31.6%
Jesus Gomez 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2637% → 70%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
37.0%
Bryson Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 24Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
36.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 7 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
36.0%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+16
34.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 16 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
38.2%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
38.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the ASU 42Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
38.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+41
34.3%
Bryson Washington run for 41 yds to the ASU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
39.2%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the ASU 1Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:1939% → 88%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
61.0%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-3
61.9%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Jackie Marshall for a loss of 3 yards to the ASU 13Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 13
OWN 13
+61
63.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Derek Eusebio for 61 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
50.6%
Raleek Brown run for 8 yds to the BAY 18Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+3
49.8%
Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the BAY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
50.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 4 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+19
11.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 19 yds for a TD (Jordyn Tyson pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:0824% → 67%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
23.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 35Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+8
21.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 8 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
24.8%
Bryson Washington run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
50
0
25.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
50
-7
24.7%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by C.J. Fite for a loss of 7 yards to the BAY 43Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+23
20.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 23 yds to the ASU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
27.6%
Caden Knighten run for 1 yd to the ASU 33Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+33
66.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 33 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21FG
17 plays · 49 yds · 1:4750% → 93%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.7%
Derek Eusebio run for 8 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
46.1%
PENALTY BAYLOR Offside (Fobbs-White,Matthew) 5 yards from ASU33 to ASU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
46.4%
Raleek Brown run for no gain to the ASU 38Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
46.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 6 yds to the ASU 44Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+15
44.1%
Baylor Penalty, Personal Foul (DJ Coleman) to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
40.9%
Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+3
36.1%
Derek Eusebio run for 3 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
38.5%
Sam Leavitt run for 3 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
35.5%
Raleek Brown run for no gain to the BAY 26Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
39.4%
Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the BAY 25Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-1
42.0%
S. Leavitt takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
7.0%
Jesus Gomez 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:29
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 19 yds for a TD (Jordyn Tyson pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
-39
TD · Q4 1:52
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 33 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)
+39
FG · Q4 0:00
Jesus Gomez 43 yd FG GOOD
-35
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com