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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:49 · Orion Phillips punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Malique Singleton at the WYO 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 3:06: Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the WYO 40 — UTAH win probability +3.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:46: NaQuari Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK) — UTAH win probability +6.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:23: Devon Dampier pass complete to Larry Simmons for 8 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK) — UTAH win probability +7.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:35: Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 14 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK) — UTAH win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:23: Terron Kellman run for 15 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WYO win probability +1.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 14:08WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.4%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q1 10:22UTAH 4th & 7 at WYO 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snapGo for it91.2%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call91.2%66% to makePunt90.8%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:12WYO 4th & 30 at UTAH 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it10.0%−0.27% to convertField goal10.2%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q1 1:41UTAH 4th & 4 at WYO 27, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snapGo for it87.9%48% to convertField goalTheir call87.8%−0.162% to makePunt87.0%−0.9average punt
- Q2 14:16WYO 4th & 7 at UTAH 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it13.3%−<0.137% to convertField goal12.9%−0.423% to makePuntTheir call13.3%average punt
- Q2 9:55UTAH 4th & 1 at WYO 32, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.3%71% to convertField goal84.3%−0.951% to makePunt84.0%−1.2average punt
- Q2 7:52UTAH 4th & 7 at WYO 27, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snapGo for it84.3%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call84.4%62% to makePunt82.3%−2.1average punt
- Q2 6:44WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 35, down 3Close callPunted · 16.0% before the snapGo for it16.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:49UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 35, up 3Close callPunted · 82.4% before the snapGo for it82.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:28WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 12, down 3Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snapGo for it18.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:28WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 12, down 3Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snapGo for it18.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:03UTAH 4th & 10 at WYO 29, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snapGo for it79.7%−0.529% to convertField goalTheir call80.3%58% to makePunt76.6%−3.7average punt
- Q3 7:46WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it13.7%−0.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%average punt
- Q4 11:32WYO 4th & 2 at UTAH 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.5%57% to convertField goal3.9%−1.734% to makePunt4.0%−1.6average punt
- Q4 4:23WYO 4th & 1 at UTAH 15, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%71% to convertField goal0.9%−0.283% to makePunt0.6%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 0 of 1UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q3 10:46UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.2%97% to makeGo for two86.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:23UTAH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:35UTAH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%−0.297% to makeGo for two98.9%45% to convert
- Q4 4:23WYO Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick2.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.3%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 1:11UTAH Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:458% → 8%
Q1 14:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
8.3%
Bart Edmiston punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Rayshawn Glover at the UTAH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2FG11 plays · 48 yds · 3:4292% → 90%
Q1 12:06
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+24
8.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 24 yds to the WYO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
9.1%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Dampier,Devon pass complete short left to Merriweather,Tobias caught at WYO22, for 7 yards to the WYO21 (Grant,Markie), out of bounds PENALTY Utah Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from WYO28 to WYO33. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT10 plays · 19 yds · 3:5410% → 11%
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
9.9%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass incomplete short right to Durr,Chris thrown to Utah42 broken up by Snowden,Smith PENALTY Utah Pass Interference (Snowden,Smith) 15 yards from WYO40 to Utah45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
10.2%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 9 yds to the UTAH 36Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-15
11.2%
Kaden Anderson sacked by John Henry Daley for a loss of 15 yards to the UTAH 36Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 25
OPP 36
-5
11.0%
PENALTY WYO Delay Of Game 5 yards from Utah36 to Utah41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 30
OPP 41
0
11.0%
Bart Edmiston punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Rayshawn Glover at the UTAH 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4MISSED FG10 plays · 60 yds · 4:2589% → 87%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
11.5%
Devon Dampier sacked by Ben Florentine for a loss of 3 yards to the UTAH 27Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+11
11.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Hunter Andrews for 11 yds to the UTAH 38Similar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
12.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 2 yds to the WYO 31Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
12.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Smith Snowden for 3 yds to the WYO 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:1813% → 14%
Q1 0:40
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+12
13.2%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylan Bean for 12 yds to the WYO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6MISSED FG18 plays · 72 yds · 6:1986% → 84%
Q2 13:43
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
14.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Wayshawn Parker for 4 yds to the UTAH 7Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+12
15.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 12 yds to the UTAH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
14.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Hunter Andrews for 6 yds to the WYO 48Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
14.7%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Snowden,Smith rush left for 16 yards gain to the WYO14 (Johnson,Andrew), out of bounds PENALTY Utah Holding (Moea'i,Solatoa) 10 yards from WYO30 to WYO40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+13
16.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 13 yds to the WYO 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0216% → 16%
Q2 6:44
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+4
16.3%
Bart Edmiston punt for 42 yds , Rayshawn Glover returns for 4 yds to the UTAH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4883% → 82%
Q2 4:49
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
17.9%
Orion Phillips punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Malique Singleton at the WYO 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9FUMBLE4 plays · 25 yds · 1:1118% → 21%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+32
18.1%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Samuel Harris for 32 yds to the UTAH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-7
21.0%
Kaden Anderson sacked by John Henry Daley for a loss of 7 yards to the WYO 46 Kaden Anderson fumbled, recovered by UTAH Lander Barton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10FUMBLE4 plays · 43 yds · 1:0483% → 83%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
17.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the WYO 40Similar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
17.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds to the WYO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
16.8%
Nate Johnson run for 16 yds to the WYO 3 Nate Johnson fumbled, recovered by WYO Andrew JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 0:2819% → 17%
Q2 1:47
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+5
18.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 5 yds to the WYO 12Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+59
17.4%
Bart Edmiston punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WYO 10 , Rayshawn Glover returns for 59 yds to the UTAH 29 Utah Penalty, Offensive Holding (Logan Fano) to the WYO 10Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+59
17.4%
Bart Edmiston punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTAH 45 , Rayshawn Glover returns for 59 yds to the UTAH 29 Utah Penalty, Offensive Holding (Logan Fano) to the UTAH 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12MISSED FG12 plays · 26 yds · 1:2282% → 81%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
17.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the WYO 49Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+4
17.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+15
19.2%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Dampier,Devon pass incomplete deep right to Bentley,Dallen thrown to WYO13 PENALTY WYO Pass Interference (Thomas,Jones) 15 yards from Utah45 to WYO40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
16.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 6 yds to the WYO 34Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
16.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 5 yds to the WYO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD11 plays · 83 yds · 3:5680% → 87%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
20.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Hunter Andrews for 14 yds to the UTAH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
20.3%
Hunter Andrews run for 15 yds to the WYO 46 for a 1ST down Wyoming Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WYO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+15
19.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 15 yds to the WYO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5414% → 14%
UTAHDrive 16TD19 plays · 78 yds · 7:1785% → 95%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
13.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Hunter Andrews for 2 yds to the UTAH 44Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 15
50
+15
13.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 15 yds to the WYO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+2
12.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Lander Barton for 2 yds to the WYO 43Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 28
OWN 47
+7
13.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the WYO 46Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 21
OPP 46
+23
13.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 23 yds to the WYO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
12.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the WYO 19Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+11
12.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Hunter Andrews for 11 yds to the WYO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
4.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Larry Simmons for 8 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17INT15 plays · 32 yds · 5:027% → 5%
Q4 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
7.2%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Eric Richardson for 4 yds to the WYO 33Similar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
6.1%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Evan Svoboda for 8 yds to the WYO 45Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
6.3%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 7 yds to the UTAH 41Similar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+3
5.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Samuel Harris for 3 yds to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-10
5.4%
Sam Scott run for no gain to the UTAH 33 Wyoming Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caden Barnett) to the UTAH 43Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 16
OPP 43
-57
4.5%
Kaden Anderson pass intercepted Jackson Bennee return for 57 yds to the WYO 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18TD3 plays · 18 yds · 1:1796% → 99%
WYODrive 19TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:052% → 3%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
1.4%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass incomplete short left to Durr,Chris thrown to WYO44 PENALTY WYO Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from WYO36 to WYO31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
1.2%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 7 yds to the UTAH 34Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
1.2%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 6 yds to the UTAH 18Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+15
2.6%
Terron Kellman run for 15 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0598% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21END OF GAME5 plays · 14 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 0:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
0.2%
PENALTY Utah Delay Of Game 5 yards from WYO34 to WYO39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:23
Devon Dampier pass complete to Larry Simmons for 8 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
-7.7
TD · Q3 10:46
NaQuari Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
-6.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 3:06
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the WYO 40
-3.4