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ACU

Abilene Christian 21 at TCU 42

TCU
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jordon Vaughn run for 12 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:10: Trent Battle run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:24: Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 15 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:23: Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyler Meschi PAT MISSED) — ACU win probability +1.0 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:59: Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 21 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:40: S. Earle pass to J. Mitchell III for 9 yds for a TD (Two-point Conversion failed) — ACU win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ACU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 7:46ACU 4th & 2 at ACU 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:47ACU 4th & 4 at TCU 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:44ACU 4th & 12 at TCU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:37TCU 4th & 1 at ACU 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:04ACU 4th & 3 at TCU 24, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:45ACU 4th & 16 at TCU 17, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 3:19TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 40, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ACU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:43TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:33TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:10TCU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:24TCU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:23ACU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:59TCU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:56TCU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:08ACU Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:40ACU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:0199% → 99%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
99.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 12 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+44
99.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 44 yds to the ACU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the ACU 30Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+15
99.0%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete deep right to McAlister,Eric thrown to ACU00 PENALTY ACU Pass Interference (Malaska,Jocelyn) 15 yards from ACU30 to ACU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
99.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the ACU 14Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
99.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the ACU 11Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
99.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 11 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:491% → 1%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.0%
Jordon Vaughn run for 7 yds to the ACU 32Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
98.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Jed Castles for 2 yds to the ACU 34Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
98.9%
Jordon Vaughn run for 3 yds to the ACU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
98.8%
Stone Earle sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the ACU 31Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+12
98.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Dallas Dudley for 12 yds to the ACU 43Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+2
98.7%
Jordon Vaughn run for 2 yds to the ACU 45Similar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
98.7%
Hugo Nash punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:0699% → 99%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan DwyerSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
98.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+15
98.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 15 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan DwyerSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
98.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 7 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
98.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the ACU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
98.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 7 yds to the ACU 39Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+8
98.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 8 yds to the ACU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+23
98.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 23 yds to the ACU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 8 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:401% → 2%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Jordon Vaughn run for no gain to the ACU 25Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.7%
(03:54) Shotgun Earle,Stone pass incomplete deep right to Gipson,Javon thrown to TCU42 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (McIver Jr.,Jevon) 15 yards from ACU25 to ACU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
98.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Jed Castles for 9 yds to the ACU 49Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
98.6%
E.J. Wilson run for 5 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
98.6%
Stone Earle pass complete to Bryan Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+4
98.6%
Stone Earle run for 4 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+3
98.5%
Stone Earle pass complete to E.J. Wilson for 3 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
98.5%
Hugo Nash punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Dwyer at the TCU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 2:2499% → 99%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+33
98.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 33 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
98.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 17 yds to the ACU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+29
98.6%
Jeremy Payne run for 29 yds to the ACU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
98.6%
Trent Battle run for 7 yds to the ACU 7Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-3
98.6%
Jeremy Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the ACU 10Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+9
98.5%
Trent Battle run for 9 yds to the ACU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Trent Battle run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 6MISSED FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 7:151% → 1%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.0%
E.J. Wilson run for 4 yds to the ACU 22Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+5
99.0%
Stone Earle pass complete to J.J. Henry for 5 yds to the ACU 27Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
99.0%
E.J. Wilson run for 2 yds to the ACU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
99.0%
Stone Earle pass complete to E.J. Wilson for 11 yds to the ACU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.0%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 1 yd to the ACU 41Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
99.0%
Stone Earle run for 10 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.9%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to JB Mitchell IIISimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
98.9%
E.J. Wilson run for 3 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-15
98.9%
(08:35) Shotgun Earle,Stone pass complete short right to Gipson,Javon caught at TCU39, for 33 yards to the TCU13 (Glover,Vernon) PENALTY ACU Pass Interference (Gipson,Javon) 15 yards from TCU46 to ACU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 22
OWN 39
+32
98.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to JB Mitchell III for 32 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
98.8%
Stone Earle run for 3 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
98.7%
E.J. Wilson run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-8
98.8%
Stone Earle sacked by Namdi Obiazor for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+49
98.9%
Kyler Meschi 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:1099% → 100%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 8 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+4
99.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+13
99.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 13 yds to the ACU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 6 yds to the ACU 33Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
99.1%
Trent Battle run for 3 yds to the ACU 30Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+6
99.1%
Jon Denman run for 6 yds to the ACU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 2 yds to the ACU 22Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
99.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 7 yds to the ACU 15Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
99.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 15 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 1:110% → 1%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Dallas Dudley for 9 yds to the ACU 34Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
99.7%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 12 yds to the ACU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
99.7%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ACU 45Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to J.J. HenrySimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+24
99.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to JB Mitchell III for 24 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
99.7%
Stone Earle run for 7 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
99.6%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Jed CastlesSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
99.6%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to JB Mitchell IIISimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
99.5%
Brandon Perez 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
99.7%
J. Hoover takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:291% → 1%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.0%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 9 yds to the ACU 34Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.4%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 5 yds to the ACU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
99.7%
Stone Earle sacked by Ansel Din-Mbuh for a loss of 6 yards to the ACU 33Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+9
99.8%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 9 yds to the ACU 42Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+42
99.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Bryan Henry for 42 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
99.7%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 3 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
99.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Rovaughn Banks Jr. for 2 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+10
99.7%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 10 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyler Meschi PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1399% → 100%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.0%
Jeremy Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+51
99.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 51 yds to the ACU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.1%
Jeremy Payne run for 4 yds to the ACU 21Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 21 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:080% → 0%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Dallas Dudley for 15 yds to the ACU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
99.8%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 17 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.8%
Stone Earle run for 3 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
99.8%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 1 yd to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+7
99.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Rovaughn Banks Jr. for 7 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
99.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Rovaughn Banks Jr. for 9 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+12
99.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Jed Castles for 12 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.8%
Stone Earle run for 2 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-8
99.9%
Stone Earle sacked by Kylin Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 17Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 16
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Dallas DudleySimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+33
99.7%
Brandon Perez 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
99.8%
Nate Palmer run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan DwyerSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+31
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 31 yds to the ACU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 4 yds to the ACU 28Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+12
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 12 yds to the ACU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
99.8%
Nate Palmer run for 10 yds to the ACU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.8%
Nate Palmer run for 3 yds to the ACU 3Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 1 yd to the ACU 2Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Jon Denman run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 14TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:420% → 0%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Earle,Stone pass incomplete deep left to Dudley,Dallas thrown to TCU43 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Helm,Avery) 15 yards from ACU25 to ACU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
50
+1
99.9%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 1 yd to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to JB Mitchell III for 15 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.9%
Jordon Vaughn run for 8 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+8
99.9%
(12:32) Shotgun Earle,Stone pass incomplete short middle to Dudley,Dallas thrown to TCU18, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Helm,Avery) 8 yards from TCU26 to TCU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
99.9%
PENALTY ACU False Start (Carr,Kaden) 5 yards from TCU18 to TCU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+6
99.9%
Jordon Vaughn run for 6 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+8
99.9%
(11:54) Shotgun Earle,Stone pass incomplete short left to Dudley,Dallas thrown to TCU00 PENALTY TCU Roughing The Passer (Elarms-Orr,Kaleb) 8 yards from TCU17 to TCU09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Bryan Henry for 2 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to JB Mitchell IIISimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Bryan Henry for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Lafayette Kaiuway for 9 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Nate Palmer run for 3 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Dozie Ezukanma for 11 yds to the ACU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Ken Seals pass intercepted Noah Mangham return for a loss of 3 yards to the ACU 22Similar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Ken Seals pass intercepted Noah Mangham return for a loss of 3 yards to the ACU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:010% → 1%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+42
99.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Dallas Dudley for 42 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
99.9%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 8 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+8
99.9%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 8 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.9%
Jordon Vaughn run for 8 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+4
99.9%
Jordon Vaughn run for 4 yds to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
99.9%
Jordon Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to JB Mitchell IIISimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.5%
S. Earle pass to J. Mitchell III for 9 yds for a TD (Two-point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1099% → 100%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.4%
Nate Palmer run for 9 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
99.5%
Nate Palmer run for 5 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.5%
Jon Denman run for 2 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
99.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jon Denman for 2 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+2
99.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Terry Shelton for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
99.6%
Ethan Craw punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyson Williams at the ACU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 18END OF GAME
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:130% → 1%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
99.6%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 7 yds to the ACU 26Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+1
99.5%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 1 yd to the ACU 27Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
99.5%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 3 yds to the ACU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.5%
Stone Earle run for 2 yds to the ACU 32Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
99.5%
Jordon Vaughn run for 3 yds to the ACU 35Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+8
99.5%
Stone Earle pass complete to JB Mitchell III for 8 yds to the ACU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
99.5%
Jordon Vaughn run for 12 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:23
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyler Meschi PAT MISSED)
-1
TD · Q3 8:59
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 21 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 13:10
Trent Battle run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com