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COLO

Colorado 20 at Houston 36

HOU
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 12, 2025 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:01 · Damon Greaves punt for 41 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 12 yds to the HOU 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Home team on offense+16.4Pregame prior+4.1Score differential+6.8Garbage-time factor+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:13: Ethan Sanchez 43 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +5.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:34: Simeon Price run for 38 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +7.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:26: Zach Atkins 0 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick) — COLO win probability +8.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q3 6:25: Ethan Sanchez 35 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +5.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:21: Conner Weigman run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — HOU win probability +13.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13COLO made the numbers' call on 13 of 15
  1. Q1 10:39COLO 4th & 12 at HOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:39COLO 4th & 12 at HOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:42HOU 4th & 10 at COLO 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:27COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:27COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:18COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:18COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:13HOU 4th & 10 at COLO 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:43COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:43COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:48HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 37, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 11:48HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 37, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:45HOU 4th & 13 at COLO 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:57HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 45, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.5%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:22HOU 4th & 4 at COLO 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−1.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:25HOU 4th & 6 at COLO 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−9.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:35COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 37, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:35COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 37, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:30HOU 4th & 7 at COLO 32, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−1.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:30HOU 4th & 7 at COLO 32, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−1.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 13:01COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 13:01COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  23. Q4 9:33COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 38, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.4
    average punt
  24. Q4 9:33COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 38, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.4
    average punt
  25. Q4 6:56HOU 4th & 1 at COLO 17, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.7
    80% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−2.5
    average punt
  26. Q4 6:56HOU 4th & 1 at COLO 17, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.7
    80% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−2.5
    average punt
  27. Q4 5:00COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 19, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  28. Q4 3:34HOU 4th & 3 at COLO 31, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:52HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:34COLO Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:26COLO Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:21HOU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:39HOU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:34COLO Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 4:1531% → 32%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
68.7%
Micah Welch run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 23Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
68.7%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Joseph Williams for 10 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
68.6%
Micah Welch run for 3 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
68.5%
Simeon Price run for 3 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+16
68.3%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 16 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
68.1%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Sincere Brown for 2 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
67.9%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Micah Welch for 4 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
68.1%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
68.3%
Damon Greaves punt for 44 ydsSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
68.3%
Damon Greaves punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:5068% → 69%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
68.3%
Dean Connors run for 8 yds to the HOU 11Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+16
68.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 16 yds to the HOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
68.3%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the HOU 28Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+7
68.2%
Conner Weigman run for 7 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+9
68.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 9 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
68.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 22 yds to the COLO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
68.8%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
68.8%
Conner Weigman run for no gain to the COLO 34Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
68.5%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stacy SneedSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
68.7%
Ethan Sanchez 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0131% → 31%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
68.7%
Dekalon Taylor run for no gain to the COLO 31Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
68.8%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Dekalon Taylor for 8 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
68.2%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Dre'lon MillerSimilar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
68.9%
Damon Greaves punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 21Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
68.9%
Damon Greaves punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:2569% → 73%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+49
68.5%
Conner Weigman run for 49 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
69.8%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
69.8%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Harvey Broussard IIISimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+21
69.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 16 yds to the COLO 9 for a 1ST down Colorado Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Keaten Wade) to the COLO 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
73.0%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:2928% → 27%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
72.1%
PENALTY COL Delay Of Game 5 yards from COL18 to COL13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 15
OWN 13
-1
72.8%
Ryan Staub sacked by Khalil Laufau for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 12Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+10
73.0%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Omarion Miller for 10 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
72.5%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
72.8%
Damon Greaves punt for 47 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for no gain to the HOU 31Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
72.8%
Damon Greaves punt for 47 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for no gain to the HOU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:0072% → 79%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
72.4%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
72.5%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
73.3%
Stacy Sneed run for 14 yds to the COLO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
73.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the COLO 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-2
74.0%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 23Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-2
73.4%
Conner Weigman sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 25Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
78.6%
Ethan Sanchez 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1723% → 22%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
76.6%
Micah Welch run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 22Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+4
77.3%
Ryan Staub run for 4 yds to the COLO 26Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
77.5%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Zach AtkinsSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
77.7%
Damon Greaves punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HOU 35Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
77.7%
Damon Greaves punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HOU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4980% → 79%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
79.6%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
80.1%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
79.8%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Harvey Broussard IIISimilar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
79.4%
Liam Dougherty punt for 56 ydsSimilar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
79.4%
Liam Dougherty punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 4:0821% → 29%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
78.6%
Simeon Price run for no gain to the COLO 7Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
78.8%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Dre'lon MillerSimilar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+15
79.0%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Staub,Ryan pass incomplete short right to Brown,Sincere thrown to COL19 PENALTY HOU Pass Interference (McCutchin Sr.,Latrell) 15 yards from COL07 to COL22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
78.4%
Ryan Staub run for no gain to the COLO 22Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
78.7%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Zach Atkins for 1 yd to the COLO 23Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+11
79.3%
Ryan Staub run for 11 yds to the COLO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
79.0%
Dekalon Taylor run for 11 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
78.9%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the COLO 46Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
79.2%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Omarion Miller for 8 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+8
78.4%
Simeon Price run for 8 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
70.7%
Simeon Price run for 38 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10FG
17 plays · 46 yds · 5:3974% → 77%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Luke McGary for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.6%
Conner Weigman run for 9 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
74.1%
Conner Weigman run for 1 yd to the HOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
74.1%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the HOU 38Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+21
75.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 21 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
75.7%
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+1
76.2%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the COLO 33Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+7
75.6%
Conner Weigman run for 7 yds to the COLO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
76.3%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-3
76.2%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 29Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
74.1%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Weigman,Conner pass incomplete short left thrown to COL20 PENALTY COL Roughing The Passer offsetting HOU Intentional Grounding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
74.1%
Conner Weigman run for no gain to the COLO 29Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+47
76.9%
Ethan Sanchez 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 1:0422% → 34%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
78.1%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Joseph Williams for 5 yds to the COLO 17Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
78.2%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 3 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+36
78.5%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Omarion Miller for 36 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
75.3%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Micah Welch for 25 yds to the HOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
73.6%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Micah WelchSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
66.3%
Zach Atkins 0 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
68.3%
C. Weigman takes a kneeSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
68.3%
C. Weigman takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FG
20 plays · 57 yds · 8:1567% → 73%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 6 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
68.6%
Stephon Johnson run for 5 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.2%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the HOU 36Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
67.7%
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
68.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 2 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
67.4%
Conner Weigman run for 1 yd to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
69.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 8 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
69.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 1 yd to the COLO 45Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
69.4%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
70.0%
PENALTY HOU False Start (Brooks Jr.,Jason) 5 yards from COL40 to COL45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+11
68.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 11 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
70.9%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
69.7%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the COLO 34Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+12
67.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 12 yds to the COLO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
71.0%
Houston Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Conner Weigman) to the COLO 32Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+5
69.1%
Conner Weigman run for 5 yds to the COLO 27Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+9
67.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 9 yds to the COLO 18Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
73.2%
Ethan Sanchez 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:4531% → 28%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
69.1%
Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
68.8%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Hykeem WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
70.1%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
71.6%
Damon Greaves punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 24Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
71.6%
Damon Greaves punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:0673% → 90%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
72.6%
Mekhi Mews run for 1 yd to the HOU 25Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+12
72.2%
Dean Connors run for 12 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
73.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 18 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
75.6%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the COLO 44Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+15
75.4%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Weigman,Conner pass incomplete deep left to Williams,Devan thrown to COL07 PENALTY COL Pass Interference (Vickers,Makari) 15 yards from COL44 to COL29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
76.5%
Dean Connors run for 8 yds to the COLO 21Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+1
76.6%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the COLO 20Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+1
75.3%
Conner Weigman run for 1 yd to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
76.7%
Dean Connors run for 18 yds to the COLO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.0%
Conner Weigman run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1013% → 12%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
86.7%
Ryan Staub sacked by Eddie Walls III for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
87.8%
Ryan Staub run for no gain to the COLO 27Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
88.2%
Ryan Staub pass intercepted Blake Thompson return for no gain to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
88.2%
Ryan Staub pass intercepted Blake Thompson return for no gain to the COLO 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1891% → 89%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
90.5%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
90.2%
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
90.1%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
89.4%
Ethan Sanchez 50 yd FG MISSED Houston Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
89.4%
Ethan Sanchez 50 yd FG MISSED Houston Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2512% → 10%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.2%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Zach AtkinsSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
88.9%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
89.7%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Dre'lon MillerSimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+12
89.8%
Damon Greaves punt for 41 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 12 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+12
89.8%
Damon Greaves punt for 41 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 12 yds to the HOU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 1:1492% → 98%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.0%
Mekhi Mews run for no gain to the HOU 39Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+54
92.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 54 yds to the COLO 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.9%
Conner Weigman run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:504% → 3%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
96.4%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Dekalon Taylor for 4 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
96.3%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Dekalon Taylor for 7 yds to the COLO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
96.4%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 8 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 2
OWN 40
-2
96.4%
Micah Welch run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 38Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
96.5%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 4
OWN 38
-12
96.6%
Ryan Staub sacked by Corey Platt Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the COLO 26Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 4
OWN 38
-12
96.6%
Ryan Staub sacked by Corey Platt Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the COLO 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:3198% → 98%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
98.2%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the COLO 24Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+5
98.3%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the COLO 19Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
98.3%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the COLO 17Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
98.3%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the COLO 17Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
98.3%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the COLO 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:153% → 7%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
96.6%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 4 yds to the COLO 21Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-13
97.5%
Ryan Staub run for a loss of 13 yards to the COLO 8 Ryan Staub fumbled, recovered by COLO Ryan StaubSimilar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 19
OWN 8
+11
97.8%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Simeon Price for 11 yds to the COLO 19Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+44
97.7%
Ryan Staub run for 29 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST down Houston Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Latreveon McCutchin) to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.3%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Sincere BrownSimilar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
92.7%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Joseph Williams for 37 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1197% → 98%
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
97.4%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
97.4%
Conner Weigman run for 1 yd to the COLO 37Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+3
97.9%
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
98.3%
Ethan Sanchez 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24INT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:343% → 2%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.5%
Ryan Staub pass incomplete to Noah KingSimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
97.6%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Sincere Brown for 13 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
97.5%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Staub,Ryan pass complete short right to Brown,Sincere caught at HOU34, for 25 yards to the HOU21 (James,Will) PENALTY COL Illegal Forward Pass (Staub,Ryan) 5 yards from HOU46 to COL49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+1
97.8%
Ryan Staub run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 14
50
-40
98.0%
Ryan Staub pass intercepted Wrook Brown return for 40 yds to the COLO 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4099% → 99%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.3%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the COLO 37Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+2
99.4%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-2
99.4%
C. Weigman takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-2
99.4%
C. Weigman takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:21
Conner Weigman run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q2 0:26
Zach Atkins 0 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)
-8.3
TD · Q2 7:34
Simeon Price run for 38 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com