2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreNWST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:00 · Myion Hicks run for 2 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:40: Brendan Sorsby run for 23 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK) — CIN win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NWST made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
- Q1 11:27NWST 4th & 2 at NWST 19, down 7Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:50NWST 4th & 13 at NWST 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 8:50NWST 4th & 13 at NWST 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 5:25NWST 4th & 22 at NWST 13, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 13:21NWST 4th & 12 at CIN 37, down 35Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.124% to convertField goal0.3%40% to makePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:04NWST 4th & 17 at NWST 18, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 3:55NWST 4th & 6 at NWST 29, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 3:12CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 48, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q2 3:12CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 48, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q2 0:59NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 9, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q2 0:59NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 9, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 7:46NWST 4th & 5 at NWST 30, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 0:00NWST 4th & 1 at CIN 42, down 63Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goal-0.2%−0.230% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 7:45NWST 4th & 1 at CIN 31, down 63Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%71% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.154% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:34NWST 4th & 2 at NWST 33, down 70Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:51CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 35, up 70Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 13:24CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:18CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:07CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:11CIN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:46CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:40CIN Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:38CIN Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:16CIN Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:14CIN Touchdown, up 62 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:00CIN Touchdown, up 69 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCINDrive 1TD7 plays · 65 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
NWSTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:410% → 0%
CINDrive 3TD1 play · 55 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 55 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 4PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 2:230% → 0%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
99.6%
PENALTY NSU False Start (Morphis,Garrett) 5 yards from NSU16 to NSU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-1
99.6%
Abram Johnston pass complete to Myion Hicks for a loss of 1 yard to the NWST 13Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 13
OWN 13
+2
99.6%
Cooper Evans punt for 31 yds , Manny Covey returns for 2 yds to the NWST 42 Manny Covey fumbled, recovered by CIN Manny CoveySimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 13
OWN 13
+2
99.6%
Cooper Evans punt for 31 yds , Manny Covey returns for 2 yds to the NWST 42 Manny Covey fumbled, recovered by CIN Manny CoveySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD5 plays · 42 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
99.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 13 yds to the NWST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.6%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Walker,Tawee rush right for 29 yards gain to the NSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:32 PENALTY CIN Holding offsetting NSU Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
99.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 16 yds to the NWST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
99.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tawee Walker for 10 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.6%
Abram Johnston sacked by Rob Jackson for a loss of 12 yards to the NWST 13Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
99.6%
Abram Johnston pass intercepted Tayden Barnes return for no gain to the NWST 12Similar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+6
99.6%
Cooper Evans punt for 38 yds , Manny Covey returns for 6 yds to the NWST 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD4 plays · 45 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
NWSTDrive 8FUMBLE4 plays · 8 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
99.7%
Abram Johnston pass complete to Ben Buisson for 8 yds Ben Buisson fumbled, recovered by CIN Jonathan ThompsonSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
99.7%
Abram Johnston pass complete to Ben Buisson for 8 yds Ben Buisson fumbled, recovered by CIN Jonathan ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD2 plays · 30 yds · 0:22100% → 100%
NWSTDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 38 yds · 4:200% → 0%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.7%
Abram Johnston pass complete to Camryn Davis for 9 yds to the NWST 34Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
99.8%
Abram Johnston pass complete to Luke Carter for 11 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.8%
Abram Johnston pass complete to Amaaz Eugene for 5 yds to the CIN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
99.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 12 yds to the CIN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
99.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 14 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 5 yds to the NWST 49Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+12
99.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Noah Jennings for 12 yds to the NWST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
99.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for no gain to the NWST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q2 8:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
99.8%
Abram Johnston pass complete to Kolbe Burrell for 6 yds to the NWST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD7 plays · 67 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q2 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+13
99.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tawee Walker for 13 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
99.8%
Tawee Walker run for 5 yds to the NWST 47 Cincinnati Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ethan Green) to the CIN 43Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 15
OWN 43
-5
99.8%
PENALTY CIN False Start (Tyo,Taran) 5 yards from CIN43 to CIN38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+28
99.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 28 yds to the NWST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q2 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Eli Anderson pass complete to Joseph Moreland for 1 yd to the NWST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:070% → 0%
CINDrive 17TD4 plays · 53 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
NWSTDrive 18END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:070% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD7 plays · 70 yds · 3:24100% → 100%
NWSTDrive 21DOWNS12 plays · 44 yds · 11:230% → 0%
Q3 2:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
100.0%
Cincinnati Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NWST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:34100% → 100%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
100.0%
(06:38) Shotgun Williams,Chance rush left for 21 yards gain to the NSU27 (Rinkin,Rahmaan; Natali,Joe) PENALTY CIN Holding (Lozowicki,Xavier) 10 yards from NSU48 to CIN42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+11
100.0%
Samaj Jones pass complete to Elijah Jones for 11 yds to the NWST 47Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+42
100.0%
Samaj Jones pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 42 yds for a TD (Dino Beslagic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 3:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Cooper Evans punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Logan Wilson at the CIN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:40
Brendan Sorsby run for 23 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
+0.1