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SAM

Samford 7 at Baylor 42

BAY
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadSAM aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreSAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:59 · Noah Jones punt for 52 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 1 yd to the BAY 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior+38.0Home team on offense+29.2Score differential+24.5Blowout margin+12.1Garbage-time factor+7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:07: C.J. Evans pass complete to Torrey Ward for 12 yds for a TD (Jake Garner KICK) — SAM win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:52: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 12 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:22: Bryson Washington run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:09: Caden Knighten run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:40: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 4 yds to the BAY 47 — BAY win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7SAM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 14:09SAM 4th & 13 at SAM 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36SAM 4th & 5 at SAM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:36SAM 4th & 5 at SAM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:34SAM 4th & 4 at SAM 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:07BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:05BAY 4th & 4 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:57BAY 4th & 1 at SAM 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:06SAM 4th & 4 at SAM 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:04BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 42, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:59SAM 4th & 9 at SAM 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:59SAM 4th & 9 at SAM 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:51BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:41SAM 4th & 4 at SAM 39, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:54BAY 4th & 13 at SAM 46, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:52SAM 4th & 9 at SAM 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:35BAY 4th & 6 at SAM 37, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:05SAM 4th & 2 at SAM 45, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SAM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:52BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:37BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:07SAM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:52BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:22BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:09BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:40BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SAMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 2 yds to the SAM 27Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.8%
PENALTY SAM False Start (Pearley,Kaleb) 5 yards from SAM27 to SAM22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Calvin JonesSimilar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Preston BirdSimilar
Q1 14:09
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Noah Jones punt blocked by Placide Djungu-Sungu, punt out-of-bounds at the SAM 28 blocked by Placide Djungu-Sungu (14:18) Jones,Noah punt 0 yards to the SAM22 blocked by Djungu-Sungu,Placide recovered by BAY Onu,Bo at SAM28 Onu,Bo return 0 yards to the SAM28, out of bounds at SAM28. , Bo Onu returns for no gain to the SAM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
99.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the SAM 20Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+4
99.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 4 yds to the SAM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.7%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the SAM 14Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+12
99.7%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short left to Trigg,Michael thrown to SAM00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SAM Pass Interference (Wansley,Amari) 12 yards from SAM14 to SAM02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Preston Bird for 3 yds to the SAM 22Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
99.7%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Preston Bird for 8 yds to the SAM 30Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Calvin JonesSimilar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.7%
Noah Jones punt for 47 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 5 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.7%
Noah Jones punt for 47 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 5 yds to the BAY 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
99.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 15 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
99.7%
Bryson Washington run for 23 yds to the SAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 3 yds to the SAM 41Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+31
99.7%
Bryson Washington run for 31 yds to the SAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 10 yds for a TD Samford Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (C.J. Evans) declined (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.7%
C.J. Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 23Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
99.6%
C.J. Evans run for 11 yds to the SAM 34Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.6%
C.J. Evans run for 4 yds to the SAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.6%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Nick Crayton for 5 yds to the SAM 43Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
99.6%
C.J. Evans run for 2 yds to the SAM 45Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-1
99.6%
Quincy Crittendon run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAM 44Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
99.6%
Noah Jones punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.6%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+5
99.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 7TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:501% → 1%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.5%
Ken Cherry run for 2 yds to the SAM 22Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
99.5%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Torrey Ward for 9 yds to the SAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Jaden GibsonSimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.5%
C.J. Evans run for 5 yds to the SAM 36Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+6
99.5%
Quincy Crittendon run for 6 yds to the SAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Nick CraytonSimilar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.5%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Torrey Ward for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 2
50
+8
99.4%
C.J. Evans run for 8 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
99.4%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Torrey Ward for 30 yds to the BAY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.2%
C.J. Evans pass complete to Torrey Ward for 12 yds for a TD (Jake Garner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2699% → 99%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 2 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
99.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 12
OWN 29
-17
99.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted LaShon Young return for 17 yds to the BAY 24Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 12
OWN 29
-17
99.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted LaShon Young return for 17 yds to the BAY 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:171% → 1%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.1%
C.J. Evans run for 2 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+12
99.1%
C.J. Evans run for 12 yds to the BAY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-7
99.1%
Quincy Crittendon sacked by Emar'rion Winston for a loss of 7 yards to the BAY 17Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
-1
99.0%
Jaden Gibson pass complete to Jaden Gibson for a loss of 1 yard Jaden Gibson fumbled, recovered by BAY Kyland ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 4:4399% → 99%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.1%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
99.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+11
99.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 11 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.1%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the BAY 33Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
99.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 11 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.1%
Caden Knighten run for 3 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
99.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+3
99.0%
Caden Knighten run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 4
50
+15
98.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 15 yds to the SAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.0%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the SAM 33Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+1
98.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 1 yd to the SAM 32Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+15
98.8%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep right to Wilson,Kole thrown to SAM05 PENALTY SAM Personal Foul (Jordan,Andrew) 15 yards from SAM32 to SAM17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
98.9%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the SAM 12Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
99.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 12 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 11INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.0%
C.J. Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 23Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
99.0%
C.J. Evans run for 3 yds to the SAM 26Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Quincy Crittendon pass intercepted LeVar Thornton Jr. return for no gain to the SAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1099% → 100%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.0%
Sawyer Robertson run for 4 yds to the SAM 30Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+14
99.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Caden Knighten for 14 yds to the SAM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 2 yds to the SAM 14Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
98.9%
Caden Knighten run for 4 yds to the SAM 10Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
98.8%
Caden Knighten run for 3 yds to the SAM 7Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
98.8%
Caden Knighten run for 2 yds to the SAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Jadon PorterSimilar
Q2 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
C.J. Evans run for 2 yds to the SAM 27Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.4%
Ken Cherry run for 4 yds to the SAM 31Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Quincy Crittendon run for no gain to the SAM 31 Quincy Crittendon fumbled, recovered by SAM Quincy CrittendonSimilar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Noah Jones punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Caden Knighten for 9 yds to the SAM 39Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+36
99.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 36 yds to the SAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.5%
Caden Knighten run for 2 yds to the SAM 1Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Caden Knighten run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
C.J. Evans run for 6 yds to the SAM 31Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
99.8%
C.J. Evans run for 2 yds to the SAM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 4 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the SAM 49Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-9
99.8%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Maxton Woodward for a loss of 9 yards to the BAY 42Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Palmer Williams punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
99.9%
Brady Stober run for 7 yds to the SAM 13Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+2
99.9%
Ken Cherry run for 2 yds to the SAM 15Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+8
99.9%
Brady Stober run for 8 yds to the SAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Brady Stober pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.9%
Cam Bland run for 1 yd to the SAM 24Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Brady Stober pass incomplete to Preston BirdSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 9
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Noah Jones punt for 52 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 1 yd to the BAY 25Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 9
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Noah Jones punt for 52 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 1 yd to the BAY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Caden Knighten for 5 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Palmer Williams punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jaden Gibson at the SAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
99.9%
Brady Stober pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 12 yds to the SAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Brady Stober pass incomplete to Preston BirdSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Brady Stober run for 6 yds to the SAM 39Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Brady Stober pass incomplete to Preston BirdSimilar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Noah Jones punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:38100% → 100%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the BAY 12Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+16
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson run for 16 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+12
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 12 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 8 yds to the SAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kelsey JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
Caden Knighten run for 7 yds to the SAM 36Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-10
99.9%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Knighten,Caden rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SAM35 (Cunningham,Conroy) PENALTY BAY Holding (Aigbedion,Omar) 10 yards from SAM36 to SAM46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Palmer Williams punt for 34 yds , Jaden Gibson returns for no gain to the SAM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 21INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Cam Bland run for 1 yd to the SAM 28Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Brady Stober run for 2 yds to the SAM 30Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Brady Stober pass intercepted Kaleb Burns return for no gain to the SAM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
Joseph Dodds run for 4 yds to the SAM 36Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-5
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Gumbo Gaskins return for 5 yds to the SAM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:270% → 0%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Brady Stober pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 7 yds to the SAM 34Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Brady Stober pass complete to Ken Cherry for 8 yds to the SAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Ken Cherry run for 2 yds to the SAM 44Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Ken Cherry run for 4 yds to the SAM 48Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-5
99.9%
Brady Stober sacked by Micah Gifford for a loss of 5 yards to the SAM 43Similar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Noah Jones punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 4:01100% → 100%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 10 yds to the BAY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 7 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Caidan Maddux return for no gain to the BAY 49Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 10 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+47
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 57 yds Baylor Penalty, Offensive Holding (Louis Brown IV) to the BAY 37Similar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 16
OWN 37
+15
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 15 yds to the SAM 48Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the SAM 48Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the SAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+13
99.9%
Michael Turner run for 13 yds to the SAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Michael Turner run for no gain to the SAM 30Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
99.9%
Samford Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Conroy Cunningham II) to the SAM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 25INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Brady Stober pass complete to Torrey Ward for 3 yds to the SAM 28Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
Ken Cherry run for 2 yds to the SAM 30Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Brady Stober pass intercepted Micah Gifford return for no gain to the BAY 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:36100% → 100%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Caden Knighten run for no gain to the BAY 33Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
99.9%
Nate Bennett pass complete to Mason Dossett for 11 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Nate Bennett pass complete to Jacorey Watson for 4 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Nate Bennett pass complete to Jacorey Watson for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 4
50
+9
99.9%
Caden Knighten run for 9 yds to the SAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Nate Bennett pass incomplete to Cody MladenkaSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-2
99.9%
Joseph Dodds run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 43Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+6
99.9%
Nate Bennett pass complete to Joseph Dodds for 6 yds to the SAM 37Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Nate Bennett pass incomplete to Taz Williams Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
100.0%
Charlie Gilliam run for 1 yd to the SAM 38Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
100.0%
Emerson Russell run for 3 yds to the SAM 41Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
Emerson Russell run for 4 yds to the SAM 45Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Noah Jones punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28END OF GAME
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:58100% → 100%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.9%
Michael Turner run for 3 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
100.0%
Michael Turner run for 2 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+11
100.0%
Nate Bennett pass complete to Taz Williams Jr. for 11 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.9%
Michael Turner run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
50
+7
100.0%
Michael Turner run for 7 yds to the SAM 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
100.0%
Joseph Dodds run for 5 yds to the SAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:22
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)
+0.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:40
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 4 yds to the BAY 47
+0.4
TD · Q2 8:52
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 12 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com