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TXST

Texas State 15 at Arizona State 34

ASU
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:44 · Matt McKenzie punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+9.4Home team on offense+33.6Score differential+13.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.5Garbage-time factor+12.4Blowout margin+10.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:47: Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 30 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — ASU win probability +2.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:22: Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — ASU win probability +2.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:35: Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 27 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — ASU win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:29: Brad Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TXST win probability +3.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:17: Raleek Brown run for 75 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — ASU win probability +4.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:45TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30ASU 4th & 2 at TXST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:59TXST 4th & 22 at TXST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:40ASU 4th & 7 at TXST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:16TXST 4th & 4 at ASU 21, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51ASU 4th & 1 at TXST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−0.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:39TXST 4th & 4 at ASU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:44ASU 4th & 9 at TXST 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:41TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:18ASU 4th & 22 at ASU 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:47ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.3%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:20TXST 4th & 3 at ASU 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:29TXST 4th & 3 at ASU 7, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:19TXST 4th & 2 at ASU 15, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:44ASU 4th & 13 at ASU 13, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:19TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 48, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:01TXST 4th & 1 at ASU 15, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 12:47ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:22ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:35ASU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:29TXST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:17ASU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:26TXST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:089% → 10%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
90.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 10 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.6%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
90.6%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-6
90.6%
Brad Jackson sacked by Albert Smith III for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
90.5%
David Nunez punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Raleek Brown at the ASU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:0890% → 90%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
90.4%
Raleek Brown run for 23 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
90.4%
Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the ASU 44Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+13
90.3%
Sam Leavitt run for 13 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
90.2%
Raleek Brown run for 6 yds to the TXST 37Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+2
90.1%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
89.9%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
89.7%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Raleek BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:1811% → 11%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
89.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Jenkins for 5 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
89.3%
Jaylen Jenkins run for no gain to the TXST 40Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-17
89.2%
Brad Jackson sacked by Jacob Rich Kongaika for a loss of 17 yards to the TXST 23 Brad Jackson fumbled, recovered by TXST Dorion Strawn , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 22
OWN 23
0
89.2%
David Nunez punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Raleek Brown at the ASU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:5289% → 89%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+36
88.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 36 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
89.2%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Udoh,Kanye rush middle for 3 yards loss to the TXST36 (Mims,Ty; Alexander,Kalil) PENALTY ASU Illegal Formation 5 yards from TXST33 to TXST38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 15
OPP 38
-2
89.0%
Kanye Udoh run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 40Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+10
88.7%
Sam Leavitt run for 10 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
88.7%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Cameron HarpoleSimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
88.8%
Jesus Gomez 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 4:1411% → 14%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 1 yd to the TXST 26Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
88.7%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Blake Smith for 10 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
88.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 9 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
88.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
88.1%
Brad Jackson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
87.8%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
87.7%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 6 yds to the ASU 34Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
87.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for no gain to the ASU 34Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+7
87.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the ASU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
86.9%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds to the ASU 19Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 2
OPP 19
-2
86.8%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 21Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
86.6%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
86.1%
Tyler Robles 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1987% → 89%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 9 yds to the ASU 34Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
86.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 11 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.0%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
86.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 6 yds to the TXST 49Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
86.5%
Sam Leavitt run for 3 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
86.1%
Sam Leavitt run for 3 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
86.6%
Kanye Udoh run for 4 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+3
86.4%
Kanye Udoh run for 3 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+6
86.1%
Kanye Udoh run for 6 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
88.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 30 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:3412% → 13%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.7%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 6 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
87.3%
Brad Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
87.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 9 yds Beau Sparks fumbled, recovered by ASU Myles RowserSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
87.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 9 yds Beau Sparks fumbled, recovered by ASU Myles RowserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:3789% → 91%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Raleek BrownSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+18
88.6%
Sam Leavitt run for 18 yds to the TXST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
88.5%
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Raleek rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST05 (Jones,Ayden) PENALTY ASU Holding (Harpole,Cameron) 10 yards from TXST07 to TXST17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+16
88.4%
Raleek Brown run for 16 yds to the TXST 1Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.2%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:3410% → 11%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
90.1%
Brad Jackson run for 24 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
89.5%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 2 yds to the ASU 49Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+6
89.4%
Greg Burrell run for 6 yds to the ASU 43Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+2
89.1%
Greg Burrell run for 2 yds to the ASU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
89.2%
Brad Jackson sacked by Keyshaun Elliott for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 43Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+3
89.6%
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+5
89.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 5 yds to the ASU 35Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
89.4%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:4591% → 94%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
90.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 18 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
91.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Khamari Anderson for 4 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
91.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 7 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
91.3%
Raleek Brown run for 10 yds to the TXST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Khamari AndersonSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
91.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 9 yds to the TXST 17Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+7
90.8%
Raleek Brown run for 7 yds to the TXST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
91.5%
Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the TXST 9Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.4%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
94.0%
Jesus Gomez 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:528% → 8%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
92.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
92.1%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 31Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
92.4%
David Nunez punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 1:2094% → 93%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
94.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 9 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+2
94.1%
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
94.2%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Kalil Alexander for a loss of 9 yards to the ASU 25Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 19
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Demarius Robinson run for no gain to the ASU 25Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 19
OWN 25
-3
93.9%
Sam Leavitt sacked by DonTerry Russell for a loss of 3 yards to the ASU 22Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 22
OWN 22
0
92.5%
Matt McKenzie punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:108% → 9%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
91.9%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 19 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
90.9%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+54
91.1%
Tyler Robles 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 6:1293% → 98%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
93.3%
Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the ASU 22Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
93.2%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+8
93.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Malik McClain for 8 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q3 14:47
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+3
92.7%
Sam Leavitt run for 3 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
93.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 2 yds to the ASU 31Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+5
93.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 5 yds to the ASU 36Similar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+10
93.1%
Sam Leavitt run for 10 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
93.6%
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+14
93.5%
Sam Leavitt run for 14 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
93.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 11 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
93.6%
Raleek Brown run for no gain to the TXST 27Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
97.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 27 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
18 plays · 59 yds · 5:593% → 6%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
97.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 11 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
97.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Blake Smith for 9 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 1
OPP 39
-1
97.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 40Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+5
97.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
97.2%
Texas State Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the ASU 44Similar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 19
OPP 44
+18
97.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 18 yds to the ASU 26Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+1
97.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ASU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
97.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ASU 21Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
97.1%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 3 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+6
97.4%
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the ASU 18Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+4
97.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 4 yds to the ASU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
97.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the ASU 9Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-11
97.4%
Brad Jackson sacked by Clayton Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the ASU 20Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+13
97.7%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Ty Stamey for 13 yds to the ASU 7Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+7
94.4%
Brad Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.3%
Raleek Brown run for 75 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FUMBLE
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:522% → 2%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
97.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 11 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
97.8%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 8 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+7
97.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 7 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.8%
Jaylen Jenkins run for no gain to the ASU 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
98.1%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Ty Stamey for 11 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.9%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
97.9%
Greg Burrell run for 6 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+6
98.0%
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the ASU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.8%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
97.9%
Greg Burrell run for 2 yds to the ASU 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+6
98.1%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 6 yds to the ASU 15Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 2
OPP 15
-1
98.1%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 16 fumbled, recovered by ASU C.J. FiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jaren HamiltonSimilar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
99.6%
Kanye Udoh run for 1 yd to the ASU 17Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-4
99.6%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Treylin Payne for a loss of 4 yards to the ASU 13Similar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
99.6%
Matt McKenzie punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
15 plays · 51 yds · 5:101% → 3%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
99.1%
Brad Jackson sacked by Jordan Crook for a loss of 8 yards to the TXST 41Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 18
OWN 41
0
99.0%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Ty StameySimilar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 18
OWN 41
+7
99.0%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 7 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 11
OWN 48
+13
99.1%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 13 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the ASU 34Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
99.0%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 4 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
99.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the ASU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.1%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.2%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the ASU 22Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+7
99.3%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 7 yds to the ASU 15Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
99.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ASU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Titus Lyons for 5 yds to the ASU 9Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+6
99.3%
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the ASU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.0%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20END OF GAME
12 plays · 18 yds · 5:16100% → 100%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.5%
Demarius Robinson run for no gain to the TXST 45Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
99.6%
Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 15
50
+11
99.5%
Jeff Sims run for 11 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+8
99.6%
Jeff Sims run for 8 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.7%
Demarius Robinson run for 3 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+5
99.7%
Demarius Robinson run for 5 yds to the TXST 23Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+3
99.7%
Jeff Sims run for 3 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
99.7%
(01:45) Kneel down by Arizona St. at TXST22 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-3
99.7%
(01:11) Kneel down by Arizona St. at TXST25 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 25
-2
99.7%
J. Sims takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:17
Raleek Brown run for 75 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q3 8:35
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 27 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q3 2:29
Brad Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com