TXST
Texas State 15 at Arizona State 34
ASU2025 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2025 · Mountain America Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey play
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TXST · Drive 1PUNT · 7 plays · 10 yds
Q1 15:00
Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
93.8%
0.0
Q1 14:53
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TXST 31
92.9%
-0.8
Q1 14:38
Lincoln Pare run for 10 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST down
92.7%
-0.3
Q1 14:28
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau Sparks
92.3%
-0.4
Q1 14:25
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau Sparks
92.3%
0.0
Q1 14:18
Brad Jackson sacked by Albert Smith III for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 35
92.3%
0.0
Q1 13:45
David Nunez punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Raleek Brown at the ASU 20
92.7%
+0.4
ASU · Drive 2DOWNS · 7 plays · 45 yds
Q1 13:38
Raleek Brown run for 23 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST down
93.7%
+1.0
Q1 13:15
Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the ASU 44
94.0%
+0.3
Q1 12:43
Sam Leavitt run for 13 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST down
94.0%
0.0
Q1 12:12
Raleek Brown run for 6 yds to the TXST 37
94.3%
+0.3
Q1 11:35
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the TXST 35
94.3%
0.0
Q1 11:01
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the TXST 35
93.8%
-0.4
Q1 10:30
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Raleek Brown
93.7%
-0.1
TXST · Drive 3PUNT · 4 plays · -12 yds
Q1 10:17
Brad Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Jenkins for 5 yds to the TXST 40
92.2%
-1.6
Q1 10:05
Jaylen Jenkins run for no gain to the TXST 40
91.8%
-0.3
Q1 9:32
Brad Jackson sacked by Jacob Rich Kongaika for a loss of 17 yards to the TXST 23 Brad Jackson fumbled, recovered by TXST Dorion Strawn , return for 0 yards
91.8%
0.0
Q1 8:59
David Nunez punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Raleek Brown at the ASU 31
92.0%
+0.2
ASU · Drive 4FG · 6 plays · 39 yds
Q1 8:32
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 36 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST down
93.1%
+1.1
Q1 8:21
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Udoh,Kanye rush middle for 3 yards loss to the TXST36 (Mims,Ty; Alexander,Kalil) PENALTY ASU Illegal Formation 5 yards from TXST33 to TXST38. NO PLAY.
93.8%
+0.6
Q1 7:58
Kanye Udoh run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 40
93.8%
0.0
Q1 7:19
Sam Leavitt run for 10 yds to the TXST 30
93.8%
0.0
Q1 6:46
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Cameron Harpole
94.0%
+0.2
Q1 6:40
Jesus Gomez 47 yd FG GOOD
95.5%
+0.1
TXST · Drive 5FG · 15 plays · 54 yds
Q1 6:40
Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
95.4%
+1.4
Q1 6:30
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 1 yd to the TXST 26
94.6%
-0.9
Q1 6:12
Brad Jackson pass complete to Blake Smith for 10 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST down
94.5%
-0.1
Q1 6:00
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 9 yds to the TXST 45
94.2%
-0.3
Q1 5:45
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST down
93.8%
-0.4
Q1 5:24
Brad Jackson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line
93.7%
-0.1
Q1 4:46
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST down
93.6%
-0.1
Q1 4:28
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 6 yds to the ASU 34
93.5%
-0.1
Q1 4:05
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for no gain to the ASU 34
93.5%
0.0
Q1 3:36
Timeout Arizona State, clock 03:36
93.2%
-0.3
Q1 3:27
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the ASU 27 for a 1ST down
93.2%
0.0
Q1 3:15
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds to the ASU 19
93.2%
0.0
Q1 2:57
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 21
93.2%
0.0
Q1 2:21
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.
93.1%
-0.1
Q1 2:16
Tyler Robles 39 yd FG GOOD
89.6%
-3.6
ASU · Drive 6TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q1 2:16
Michael James kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
90.3%
+0.7
Q1 2:06
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 9 yds to the ASU 34
92.3%
+2.0
Q1 1:28
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 11 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST down
92.1%
-0.2
Q1 1:07
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClain
92.4%
+0.3
Q1 0:54
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 6 yds to the TXST 49
92.4%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Sam Leavitt run for 3 yds to the TXST 46
92.5%
+0.1
Q2 14:51
Sam Leavitt run for 3 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST down
92.4%
-0.1
Q2 14:23
Kanye Udoh run for 4 yds to the TXST 39
92.3%
-0.1
Q2 13:55
Kanye Udoh run for 3 yds to the TXST 36
92.3%
0.0
Q2 13:23
Kanye Udoh run for 6 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST down
92.2%
-0.1
Q2 12:47
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 30 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
96.6%
+4.3
TXST · Drive 7FUMBLE · 5 plays · 15 yds
Q2 12:47
Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.4%
-0.2
Q2 12:40
Jaylen Jenkins run for 6 yds to the TXST 31
96.4%
0.0
Q2 12:24
Brad Jackson pass incomplete
96.4%
0.0
Q2 12:06
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 9 yds Beau Sparks fumbled, recovered by ASU Myles Rowser
96.4%
0.0
Q2 12:06
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 9 yds Beau Sparks fumbled, recovered by ASU Myles Rowser
96.4%
0.0
ASU · Drive 8TD · 5 plays · 25 yds
Q2 11:59
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Raleek Brown
96.6%
+0.2
Q2 11:48
Sam Leavitt run for 18 yds to the TXST 7 for a 1ST down
96.6%
0.0
Q2 11:18
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Raleek rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST05 (Jones,Ayden) PENALTY ASU Holding (Harpole,Cameron) 10 yards from TXST07 to TXST17. NO PLAY.
96.6%
0.0
Q2 10:45
Raleek Brown run for 16 yds to the TXST 1
96.6%
0.0
Q2 10:22
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
99.4%
+2.8
TXST · Drive 9DOWNS · 11 plays · 40 yds
Q2 10:22
Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.4%
0.0
Q2 10:13
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau Sparks
98.5%
-0.9
Q2 9:58
Brad Jackson run for 24 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST down
98.5%
0.0
Q2 9:33
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 2 yds to the ASU 49
98.5%
0.0
Q2 9:07
Greg Burrell run for 6 yds to the ASU 43
98.5%
0.0
Q2 8:51
Greg Burrell run for 2 yds to the ASU 41 for a 1ST down
98.5%
0.0
Q2 8:18
Brad Jackson sacked by Keyshaun Elliott for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 43
98.5%
0.0
Q2 7:38
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the ASU 40
98.5%
0.0
Q2 6:56
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 5 yds to the ASU 35
98.5%
0.0
Q2 6:56
Timeout Arizona State, clock 06:56
98.5%
0.0
Q2 6:39
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen Evans
98.5%
0.0
ASU · Drive 10FG · 11 plays · 56 yds
Q2 6:29
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 18 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST down
99.4%
+0.9
Q2 5:51
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Khamari Anderson for 4 yds to the TXST 43
99.4%
0.0
Q2 5:20
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 7 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST down
99.4%
0.0
Q2 4:52
Raleek Brown run for 10 yds to the TXST 26 for a 1ST down
99.4%
0.0
Q2 4:18
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Khamari Anderson
99.4%
0.0
Q2 4:12
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 9 yds to the TXST 17
99.4%
0.0
Q2 3:58
Raleek Brown run for 7 yds to the TXST 10 for a 1ST down
99.4%
0.0
Q2 3:29
Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the TXST 9
99.4%
0.0
Q2 2:52
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClain
99.4%
0.0
Q2 2:48
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson
99.4%
0.0
Q2 2:44
Jesus Gomez 26 yd FG GOOD
99.6%
0.0
TXST · Drive 11PUNT · 6 plays · 6 yds
Q2 2:44
Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.6%
+0.2
Q2 2:33
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the TXST 30
99.3%
-0.3
Q2 2:15
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 34
99.3%
0.0
Q2 1:56
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 31
99.3%
0.0
Q2 1:56
Timeout Arizona State, clock 01:56
99.3%
0.0
Q2 1:41
David Nunez punt for 46 yds
99.3%
0.0
ASU · Drive 12PUNT · 8 plays · -1 yds
Q2 1:38
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 9 yds to the ASU 32
99.6%
+0.3
Q2 1:31
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 34 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q2 1:06
Sam Leavitt sacked by Kalil Alexander for a loss of 9 yards to the ASU 25
99.6%
0.0
Q2 0:33
Demarius Robinson run for no gain to the ASU 25
99.6%
0.0
Q2 0:33
Timeout Arizona State, clock 00:33
99.6%
0.0
Q2 0:24
Sam Leavitt sacked by DonTerry Russell for a loss of 3 yards to the ASU 22
99.6%
0.0
Q2 0:24
Timeout Arizona State, clock 00:24
99.6%
0.0
Q2 0:18
Matt McKenzie punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 45
99.6%
0.0
TXST · Drive 13MISSED FG · 5 plays · 19 yds
Q2 0:10
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 19 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST down
99.2%
-0.4
Q2 0:01
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen Evans
99.2%
-0.1
Q2 0:01
Timeout Arizona State, clock 00:01
99.2%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Tyler Robles 54 yd FG MISSED
99.2%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Michael James kickoff for 63 yds , Jaren Hamilton return for 98 yds Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Albert Smith III) to the ASU 21
99.2%
+0.1
ASU · Drive 14TD · 13 plays · 79 yds
Q3 14:47
Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the ASU 22
99.6%
+0.3
Q3 14:47
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson
99.6%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Malik McClain for 8 yds to the ASU 30
99.6%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Sam Leavitt run for 3 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 2 yds to the ASU 31
99.6%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 5 yds to the ASU 36
99.6%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Sam Leavitt run for 10 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 48
99.6%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Sam Leavitt run for 14 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson
99.6%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 11 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 14:47
Raleek Brown run for no gain to the TXST 27
99.6%
0.0
Q3 8:35
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 27 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
99.8%
+0.2
TXST · Drive 15TD · 18 plays · 59 yds
Q3 8:28
Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds , Jaylen Jenkins return for 41 yds to the TXST 41
99.8%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 11 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST down
99.7%
-0.1
Q3 8:28
Brad Jackson pass complete to Blake Smith for 9 yds to the ASU 39
99.7%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 40
99.7%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Texas State Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the ASU 44
99.7%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Lincoln Pare run for 18 yds to the ASU 26
99.7%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ASU 25 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ASU 21
99.7%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 3 yds to the ASU 24
99.7%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the ASU 18
99.7%
0.0
Q3 4:20
Timeout Arizona State, clock 04:20
99.7%
0.0
Q3 4:20
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 4 yds to the ASU 14 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q3 4:20
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the ASU 9
99.7%
0.0
Q3 4:20
Brad Jackson sacked by Clayton Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the ASU 20
99.7%
0.0
Q3 4:20
Brad Jackson pass complete to Ty Stamey for 13 yds to the ASU 7
99.7%
0.0
Q3 2:35
Timeout Arizona State, clock 02:35
99.7%
0.0
Q3 2:29
Brad Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
99.5%
-0.2
ASU · Drive 16TD · 2 plays · 75 yds
Q3 2:29
Michael James kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.5%
0.0
Q3 2:17
Raleek Brown run for 75 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
99.8%
+0.3
TXST · Drive 17FUMBLE · 13 plays · 56 yds
Q3 2:11
Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds , Jaylen Jenkins return for 28 yds to the TXST 28
99.8%
0.0
Q3 2:11
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 11 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST down
99.7%
-0.1
Q3 2:11
Jaylen Jenkins run for 8 yds to the TXST 47
99.7%
0.0
Q3 2:11
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 7 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q3 2:11
Jaylen Jenkins run for no gain to the ASU 46
99.7%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Brad Jackson pass complete to Ty Stamey for 11 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau Sparks
99.7%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Greg Burrell run for 6 yds to the ASU 29
99.7%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the ASU 23 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen Evans
99.7%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Greg Burrell run for 2 yds to the ASU 21
99.7%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 6 yds to the ASU 15
99.7%
0.0
Q4 12:19
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 16 fumbled, recovered by ASU C.J. Fite
99.7%
0.0
ASU · Drive 18PUNT · 4 plays · -3 yds
Q4 12:19
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jaren Hamilton
99.8%
+0.1
Q4 12:19
Kanye Udoh run for 1 yd to the ASU 17
99.8%
0.0
Q4 12:19
Sam Leavitt sacked by Treylin Payne for a loss of 4 yards to the ASU 13
99.8%
0.0
Q4 10:44
Matt McKenzie punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 49
99.8%
0.0
TXST · Drive 19TD · 15 plays · 51 yds
Q4 10:36
Brad Jackson sacked by Jordan Crook for a loss of 8 yards to the TXST 41
99.7%
-0.1
Q4 10:10
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Ty Stamey
99.7%
0.0
Q4 9:59
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 7 yds to the TXST 48
99.7%
0.0
Q4 9:19
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 13 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 9:00
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the ASU 34
99.7%
0.0
Q4 8:46
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 4 yds to the ASU 30
99.7%
0.0
Q4 8:27
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the ASU 24 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 8:08
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen Evans
99.7%
0.0
Q4 7:59
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the ASU 22
99.7%
0.0
Q4 7:22
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 7 yds to the ASU 15
99.6%
0.0
Q4 7:01
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ASU 14 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q4 6:32
Brad Jackson pass complete to Titus Lyons for 5 yds to the ASU 9
99.6%
0.0
Q4 6:09
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the ASU 3 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q4 5:26
Timeout Arizona State, clock 05:26
99.6%
0.0
Q4 5:26
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
99.5%
-0.1
ASU · Drive 20END OF GAME · 12 plays · 18 yds
Q4 5:25
Michael James kickoff for 10 yds
99.6%
0.0
Q4 5:16
Demarius Robinson run for no gain to the TXST 45
99.8%
+0.2
Q4 4:44
Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard line
99.8%
0.0
Q4 4:18
Jeff Sims run for 11 yds to the TXST 39
99.8%
0.0
Q4 3:47
Jeff Sims run for 8 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 3:09
Demarius Robinson run for 3 yds to the TXST 28
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:29
Demarius Robinson run for 5 yds to the TXST 23
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:01
Jeff Sims run for 3 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Arizona State, clock 02:00
99.8%
0.0
Q4 1:38
(01:45) Kneel down by Arizona St. at TXST22 for loss of 2 yards.
99.8%
0.0
Q4 1:05
(01:11) Kneel down by Arizona St. at TXST25 for loss of 3 yards.
99.8%
0.0
Q4 0:00
J. Sims takes a knee
99.8%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:47
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 30 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+4.3
FG · Q1 2:16
Tyler Robles 39 yd FG GOOD
-3.6
TD · Q2 10:22
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+2.8