Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 17 at Arizona 23

ARIZ
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 12, 2025 · Arizona Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:01 · Simon McClannan punt for 50 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 17 yds to the KSU 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense+22.5Score differential+14.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5Garbage-time factor+4.2Pregame prior−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 7:42: Luis Rodriguez 51 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +0.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:01: Noah Fifita run for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) — ARIZ win probability +2.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 10:28: Michael Salgado-Medina 31 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +4.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:17: Timeout Kansas State, clock 04:17 — ARIZ win probability +7.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:47: Jayce Brown 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick) — KSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 10KSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:47ARIZ 4th & 14 at KSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:09KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:42KSU 4th & 20 at ARIZ 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:14KSU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    47.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:28ARIZ 4th & 6 at KSU 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:57KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:38KSU 4th & 11 at KSU 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:41ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ARIZ 4th & 9 at KSU 43, up 21
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%−1.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    89.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:11ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:01KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:54ARIZ 4th & 3 at KSU 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:40ARIZ 4th & 13 at KSU 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:42KSU 4th & 6 at ARIZ 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:04ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 49, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:55KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:25ARIZ 4th & 15 at KSU 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:31KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 32, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:55ARIZ 4th & 6 at KSU 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:00KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 43, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:01ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:4946% → 46%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
45.5%
Noah Fifita run for 15 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
45.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 11 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
46.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 6 yds to the KSU 43Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+5
46.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
46.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 13 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
46.7%
Noah Fifita run for 3 yds to the KSU 22Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-10
46.9%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Fifita,Noah pass incomplete deep right to Wysong,Luke thrown to KSU00 PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Tapa'atoutai,Rhino) 10 yards from KSU22 to KSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 17
OPP 32
0
46.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 17
OPP 32
+3
46.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 3 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
46.4%
Michael Salgado-Medina 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2354% → 53%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
46.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 2 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+4
46.5%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
46.7%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Antonio Martin Jr.Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+42
47.1%
Simon McClannan punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3FG
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1854% → 53%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
45.9%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
46.0%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 12
OPP 25
-8
46.5%
Avery Johnson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 20
OPP 33
+51
46.8%
Luis Rodriguez 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2946% → 51%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
46.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 60 yds to the KSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
47.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the KSU 10Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
47.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the KSU 7Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+2
47.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the KSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
48.0%
(05:16) Shotgun Fifita,Noah pass complete short right to Olson,Sam caught at KSU00, for 0 yards to the KSU05 PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Tapa'atoutai,Rhino) 10 yards from KSU05 to KSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
50.5%
Noah Fifita run for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 36 yds · 5:3151% → 49%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 4 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
49.4%
Dylan Edwards run for 11 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
49.1%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
49.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 5 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
48.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 2 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
48.8%
JB Price run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+6
49.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 6 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
49.1%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
49.3%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
49.9%
JB Price run for no gain to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
51.1%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:3952% → 57%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
51.8%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
51.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 5 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+13
52.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 13 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
53.4%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+27
53.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 27 yds to the KSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
54.0%
Luke Wysong run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 17Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-5
54.1%
PENALTY ARIZ False Start (Decambra,Ka'ena) 5 yards from KSU17 to KSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 16
OPP 22
0
54.0%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 16
OPP 22
+10
52.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 10 yds to the KSU 12Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+31
57.4%
Michael Salgado-Medina 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2144% → 41%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.4%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 5 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
56.5%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 26Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
58.1%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+10
58.9%
Simon McClannan punt for 56 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 10 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:0658% → 64%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
58.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
57.8%
Kansas State Penalty, Personal Foul (Ryan Davis) to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
60.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
60.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 5 yds to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+31
60.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tre Spivey for 16 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST down Kansas State Penalty, Targeting (Logan Bartley) to the KSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
62.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Brandon Phelps for 5 yds to the KSU 15Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+8
62.8%
Noah Fifita run for 8 yds to the KSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
63.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the KSU 2Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
63.8%
Wesley Yarbrough run for no gain to the KSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5115% → 13%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
84.9%
JB Price run for 12 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
84.7%
JB Price run for 3 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
85.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 4 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
86.5%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Sterling LockettSimilar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
86.7%
Simon McClannan punt for 52 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for no gain to the ARIZ 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:5290% → 89%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
89.6%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-6
89.7%
(01:33) Shotgun Fifita,Noah pass complete short right to Mahdi,Ismail caught at ARIZ08, for 9 yards to the ARIZ21 (Payne,VJ) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Tapa'atoutai,Rhino) 6 yards from ARIZ12 to ARIZ06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 16
OWN 6
0
89.7%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 16
OWN 6
+18
89.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 18 yds to the ARIZ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
90.0%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tre SpiveySimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
90.1%
Noah Fifita run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
89.8%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+31
89.2%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3491% → 90%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
91.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
91.1%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+1
90.4%
Noah Fifita run for 1 yd to the KSU 43Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+62
90.1%
Michael Salgado-Medina 62 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
88.1%
Jayce Brown 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:2590% → 90%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
89.5%
Noah Fifita sacked by Chiddi Obiazor for a loss of 6 yards to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
90.0%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+2
89.6%
Noah Fifita run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
89.7%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt blocked by Garrett Harstad blocked by Garrett Harstad (13:19) Salgado-Medina,Michael punt 0 yards to the ARIZ21 blocked by Harstad,Garrett recovered by ARIZ Brown,Taye at ARIZ07 Brown,Taye rush left for 8 yards loss to the ARIZ13 (Harstad,Garrett).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1512% → 11%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-6
87.7%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 16
OPP 19
-1
87.7%
JB Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+19
89.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 19 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.5%
JB Price run for no gain to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.8%
Avery Johnson 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15INT
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:3392% → 94%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+34
92.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 34 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
93.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
93.5%
Javin Whatley pass intercepted Qua Moss return for no gain to the KSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:468% → 7%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
92.3%
JB Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 13Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 12
OWN 13
0
92.7%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Brayden LoftinSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 12
OWN 13
0
92.8%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+17
92.9%
Simon McClannan punt for 50 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 17 yds to the KSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17FG
14 plays · 33 yds · 5:1395% → 97%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
94.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the KSU 39Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+6
95.0%
Noah Fifita run for 6 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
95.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 15 yds to the KSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
95.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-1
95.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 19Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+8
95.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Brandon Phelps for 8 yds to the KSU 11Similar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+7
95.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 7 yds to the KSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
95.9%
PENALTY ARIZ False Start (Bounds,Tristan) 5 yards from KSU04 to KSU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
95.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the KSU 6Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
96.6%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Fifita,Noah pass complete short right to Mahdi,Ismail caught at KSU11, for 1 yard loss to the KSU07 (Moss,Qua; Romaine,Austin) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Buchanan,Ty) 10 yards from KSU06 to KSU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+3
96.8%
Quincy Craig run for 3 yds to the KSU 13Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
97.4%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
97.1%
Michael Salgado-Medina 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:524% → 3%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+31
96.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 31 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
96.2%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
96.5%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
96.9%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
96.9%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5698% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+9
98.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 9 yds to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
98.6%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:012% → 2%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.0%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 4 yds to the KSU 24Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
98.0%
Antonio Martin Jr. run for 4 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
98.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 2 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
98.4%
Simon McClannan punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 7:1899% → 100%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
98.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 19 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
99.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
99.3%
(09:56) Shotgun Fifita,Noah rush left for 11 yards gain to the KSU41, End Of Play PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Maae,Chubba) 10 yards from ARIZ48 to ARIZ38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+5
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 5 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+27
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 27 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.5%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.5%
Quincy Craig run for 4 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+8
99.5%
Noah Fifita run for 8 yds to the KSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
99.5%
Quincy Craig run for 2 yds to the KSU 16Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+4
99.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the KSU 12Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-11
99.6%
Noah Fifita sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the KSU 23Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+41
99.6%
Michael Salgado-Medina 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
99.3%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 11 yards to the KSU 14Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+16
99.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 16 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 2 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23MISSED FG
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the KSU 31Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+1
99.8%
Noah Fifita run for 1 yd to the KSU 30Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+2
99.8%
Noah Fifita run for 2 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
99.8%
Michael Salgado-Medina 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
99.8%
Avery Johnson run for 8 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
99.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 4 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jemyri Davis for 3 yds to the KSU 43Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Sterling LockettSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
99.8%
N. Fifita takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-1
99.9%
N. Fifita takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:17
Timeout Kansas State, clock 04:17
+7.7
FG · Q2 10:28
Michael Salgado-Medina 31 yd FG GOOD
+4.4
TD · Q1 5:01
Noah Fifita run for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com