Try the model
NCAT

North Carolina A&T 7 at UCF 68

UCF
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadNCAT aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreNCAT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFUMBLETDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:29 · DJ Page punt for 34 yds , Antione Jackson returns for 1 yd to the UCF 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+26.0Home team on offense+34.0Score differential+27.6Blowout margin+15.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6Garbage-time factor+6.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:46: Tayven Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — UCF win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:16: Tayven Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — UCF win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q1 2:06: Champ Long sacked by Nyjalik Kelly for a loss of 8 yards Champ Long fumbled, recovered by UCF Rodney Lora , return for 0 yards for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — UCF win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 13:55: Jaden Nixon run for 87 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas PAT MISSED) — NCAT win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCAT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:42NCAT 4th & 17 at NCAT 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43UCF 4th & 4 at NCAT 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:08UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:08UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:04NCAT 4th & 9 at NCAT 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:04NCAT 4th & 9 at NCAT 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:11NCAT 4th & 7 at NCAT 44, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:15UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 46, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:29UCF 4th & 13 at midfield, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:47NCAT 4th & 4 at NCAT 12, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:37UCF 4th & 10 at NCAT 16, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:57NCAT 4th & 1 at NCAT 34, down 37
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:06NCAT 4th & 18 at UCF 26, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:29NCAT 4th & 8 at NCAT 27, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:23NCAT 4th & 12 at NCAT 38, down 54
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:37NCAT 4th & 13 at NCAT 22, down 61
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NCAT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:57UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:46UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:16UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:55UCF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:56UCF Touchdown, up 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:18UCF Touchdown, up 53 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:42UCF Touchdown, up 60 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:41UCF Touchdown, up 67 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:00NCAT Touchdown, down 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCATDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:592% → 2%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
98.3%
(14:41) PENALTY NCAT False Start (Dillard,Jayvonne) 5 yards from NCAT20 to NCAT15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+2
98.3%
Wesley Graves run for 2 yds to the NCAT 17Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+3
98.3%
Wesley Graves run for 3 yds to the NCAT 20Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-7
98.3%
Braxton Thomas sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 7 yards to the NCAT 13Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
98.2%
DJ Page punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4898% → 98%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
98.2%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+10
98.2%
Myles Montgomery run for 10 yds to the NCAT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.1%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
98.1%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Waden Charles for 6 yds to the NCAT 42Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
98.1%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Chris DomercantSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+41
98.0%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 41 yds to the NCAT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.0%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the NCAT 1Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Tayven Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 3INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:402% → 2%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Wesley Graves run for no gain to the NCAT 25Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Champ Long pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:4098% → 98%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
98.1%
Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 25Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+6
98.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the NCAT 19Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+15
98.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 15 yds to the NCAT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.3%
Tayven Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:462% → 2%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
98.3%
JT Smith run for 7 yds to the NCAT 34Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
98.3%
JT Smith run for 4 yds to the NCAT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
98.3%
JT Smith run for 8 yds to the NCAT 46Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+20
98.1%
Champ Long pass complete to Elijah Kennedy for 20 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
98.1%
Champ Long pass complete to Jamison Warren for 6 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
98.2%
Champ Long pass incomplete to Jamison WarrenSimilar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-6
98.1%
Champ Long run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 34 Champ Long fumbled, recovered by UCF Antione JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
98.2%
Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
98.2%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ BlackSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
98.2%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+20
98.1%
Anthony Venneri punt for 47 yds , Elijah Kennedy returns for 20 yds to the NCAT 38Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+20
98.1%
Anthony Venneri punt for 47 yds , Elijah Kennedy returns for 20 yds to the NCAT 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 7FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:562% → 1%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
98.3%
JT Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 8Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
98.4%
Champ Long pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 11
OWN 8
0
99.0%
Champ Long sacked by Nyjalik Kelly for a loss of 8 yards Champ Long fumbled, recovered by UCF Rodney Lora , return for 0 yards for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:511% → 1%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.0%
Wesley Graves run for 1 yd to the NCAT 35Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
99.0%
Champ Long run for 7 yds to the NCAT 42Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
99.0%
Wesley Graves run for 3 yds to the NCAT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Champ Long pass complete to Elijah Kennedy for no gain to the NCAT 45Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.0%
Wesley Graves run for 1 yd to the NCAT 46Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
99.1%
North Carolina A&T Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
99.1%
DJ Page punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Antione Jackson at the UCF 13Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
99.1%
DJ Page punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Antione Jackson at the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
98.6%
Jaden Nixon run for 87 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:311% → 1%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.0%
JT Smith run for 16 yds to the NCAT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.2%
JT Smith run for 3 yds to the NCAT 44Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-2
99.2%
JT Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCAT 42Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+2
99.3%
Shimique Blizzard run for 2 yds to the NCAT 44Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+18
99.3%
DJ Page punt blocked by Jaeden Gould, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 38 blocked by Jaeden GouldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:3599% → 99%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
98.6%
Tayven Jackson sacked by Marquis Hood for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 14
OWN 34
-1
98.5%
Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+13
98.0%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+7
97.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Waden Charles for 7 yds to the NCAT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.0%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Dylan WadeSimilar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
95.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the NCAT 45Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-5
99.3%
PENALTY UCF Illegal Snap (Miller,Carter) 5 yards from NCAT45 to NCAT50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 13
50
0
99.3%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 13
50
0
99.3%
Anthony Venneri punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
99.4%
Wesley Graves run for 1 yd to the NCAT 7Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+5
99.5%
Wesley Graves run for 5 yds to the NCAT 12Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
99.4%
Jy Walls pass incomplete to Jamison WarrenSimilar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
99.4%
DJ Page punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:0399% → 100%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+22
99.4%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 22 yds to the NCAT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
99.5%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 38 yds for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Carl Jenkins Jr.) to the NCAT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.5%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Waden Charles for 5 yds to the NCAT 11Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-5
99.5%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Kinnie,Cameron) 5 yards from NCAT11 to NCAT16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
99.5%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Waden CharlesSimilar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
99.5%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Chris DomercantSimilar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
99.6%
Noe Ruelas 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
99.6%
JT Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 14Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+3
99.7%
JT Smith run for 3 yds to the NCAT 17Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+8
99.7%
Jy Walls run for 8 yds to the NCAT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
JT Smith run for 3 yds to the NCAT 28Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.6%
Wesley Graves run for 1 yd to the NCAT 29Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.7%
JT Smith run for 5 yds to the NCAT 34Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.6%
DJ Page punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15FG
6 plays · 71 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
99.6%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.6%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
99.6%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 11 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+37
99.7%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 22 yds to the NCAT 33 for a 1ST down North Carolina A&T Penalty, (15 Yards) to the NCAT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+36
99.7%
Noe Ruelas 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 16MISSED FG
16 plays · 49 yds · 6:450% → 0%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Shimique Blizzard run for 4 yds to the NCAT 29Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+22
99.7%
Jy Walls pass complete to Jamison Warren for 7 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Antione Jackson) to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.7%
Shimique Blizzard run for 3 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Jy Walls run for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+11
99.7%
Elijah Kennedy run for 11 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
99.7%
PENALTY NCAT False Start (Dorsey,Andrew) 5 yards from UCF35 to UCF40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+3
99.7%
Shimique Blizzard run for 3 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-3
99.8%
Jy Walls run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+15
99.7%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Antione Jackson) to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
99.7%
Wesley Graves run for 1 yd to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-5
99.7%
(09:30) PENALTY NCAT False Start (Dorsey,Andrew) 5 yards from UCF17 to UCF22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 14
OPP 22
0
99.7%
Jy Walls pass incomplete to Amonte JonesSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+1
99.8%
Wesley Graves run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 13
OPP 21
-5
99.7%
(08:12) PENALTY NCAT Delay Of Game 5 yards from UCF21 to UCF26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+43
99.7%
Andrew Brown 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.8%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
99.8%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Chris Domercant for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+66
99.8%
Jaden Nixon run for 66 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
JT Smith run for 2 yds to the NCAT 27Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
99.9%
Wesley Graves run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCAT 24Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Wesley Graves run for 3 yds to the NCAT 27Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
DJ Page punt for 34 yds , Antione Jackson returns for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
99.9%
Jacurri Brown run for 60 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:470% → 0%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
99.9%
JT Smith run for 10 yds to the NCAT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.9%
Shimique Blizzard run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 39Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-4
99.9%
Shimique Blizzard run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCAT 35Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Jailen Hicks run for 3 yds to the NCAT 38Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+37
99.9%
DJ Page punt for 39 yds , Antione Jackson returns for 37 yds to the NCAT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
99.9%
Jacurri Brown run for 7 yds to the NCAT 18Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+3
99.9%
Stacy Gage run for 3 yds to the NCAT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Jacurri Brown pass incomplete to Waden CharlesSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Jacurri Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
JT Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 24Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Jailen Hicks run for no gain to the NCAT 24Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-2
100.0%
JT Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCAT 22Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
100.0%
DJ Page punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Antione Jackson at the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 4:50100% → 100%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Stacy Gage run for no gain to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Stacy Gage run for 2 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+9
99.9%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Thomas Wadsworth for 9 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Jordyn Bridgewater run for 3 yds to the NCAT 49Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Stacy Gage run for 2 yds to the NCAT 47Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+6
99.9%
Jacurri Brown run for 6 yds to the NCAT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
99.9%
Jacurri Brown run for 18 yds to the NCAT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
100.0%
Stacy Gage run for 23 yds for a TD (Noah McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:330% → 0%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Shimique Blizzard run for 2 yds to the NCAT 27Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
Shimique Blizzard run for 2 yds to the NCAT 29Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+44
100.0%
Shimique Blizzard run for 44 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
100.0%
Shimique Blizzard run for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
100.0%
Jailen Hicks run for 4 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+3
100.0%
Jailen Hicks run for 3 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
100.0%
Shimique Blizzard run for 17 yds for a TD (Andrew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Davi Belfort run for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
100.0%
Agyeman Addae run for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
100.0%
Davi Belfort run for 17 yds to the NCAT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
100.0%
Agyeman Addae run for 3 yds to the NCAT 46Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-2
100.0%
(01:11) Kneel down by UCF at NCAT48 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-2
100.0%
(00:38) Kneel down by UCF at NCAT50 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q1 2:06
Champ Long sacked by Nyjalik Kelly for a loss of 8 yards Champ Long fumbled, recovered by UCF Rodney Lora , return for 0 yards for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 13:55
Jaden Nixon run for 87 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas PAT MISSED)
-0.5
TD · Q1 7:16
Tayven Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com