2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · (00:25) Kneel down by Texas Tech at KSU23 for loss of 1 yard.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:31: Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 42 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK) — TTU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:24: Cameron Dickey run for 1 yd for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK) — TTU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:35: CJ Montes pass intercepted Skyler Gill-Howard return for 55 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK) (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — TTU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7KENT made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
- Q1 10:57KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 26, down 7Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%average punt
- Q1 7:29KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q1 4:24KENT 4th & 17 at KENT 10, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 4:24KENT 4th & 17 at KENT 10, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 3:12TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 39, up 21Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:12TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 39, up 21Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:01KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 16, down 21Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:19TTU 4th & 5 at KENT 5, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.2%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%92% to makePunt98.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 13:15KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 27, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 10:24TTU 4th & 1 at KENT 1, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%59% to convertField goal99.1%−0.294% to makePunt98.6%−0.7average punt
- Q2 1:48TTU 4th & 22 at KENT 29, up 38Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.18% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%58% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:43KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 32, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 0:43KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 32, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 13:01KENT 4th & 11 at TTU 47, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 10:26TTU 4th & 1 at KENT 35, up 48Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.245% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:22KENT 4th & 10 at TTU 43, down 48Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.0%−0.128% to makePunt0.1%average punt
- Q3 2:54KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 24, down 55Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 0:54TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 42, up 55Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 13:09KENT 4th & 1 at TTU 31, down 55Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal-0.1%−0.154% to makePunt-0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:46KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 28, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:53TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:57TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:31TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:24TTU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:35TTU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:12TTU Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:06TTU Touchdown, up 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:11KENT Touchdown, down 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:20KENT Touchdown, down 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:49TTU Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1TD10 plays · 78 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
99.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 6 yds to the TTU 39Similar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 3 yds to the TTU 47Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
99.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 4
50
0
99.5%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Morton,Behren pass incomplete deep left to Virgil,Reggie thrown to KSU20 PENALTY KSU Offside declined KSU Pass Interference (Rawlison,Jaire) 15 yards from KSU50 to KSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 35 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2DOWNS5 plays · -13 yds · 0:531% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD3 plays · 12 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
99.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 6 yds to the KENT 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:151% → 1%
TTUDrive 5TD4 plays · 76 yds · 0:4499% → 100%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
99.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 4 yds to the TTU 28Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+30
99.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 30 yds to the KENT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 42 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · -7 yds · 1:581% → 1%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
99.5%
Dru DeShields sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 7 yards to the KENT 10Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 17
OWN 10
+11
99.5%
Jake Stoeckel punt for 47 yds , Tristian Gentry returns for 11 yds to the KENT 46Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 17
OWN 10
+11
99.5%
Jake Stoeckel punt for 47 yds , Tristian Gentry returns for 11 yds to the TTU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q1 3:44
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+8
99.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 8 yds to the TTU 39Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Jack Burgess punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Wayne Harris at the KENT 13Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Jack Burgess punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Wayne Harris at the KENT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q1 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+7
99.5%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Da'Realyst Clark for 7 yds to the KENT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9FG8 plays · 32 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 1 yd to the KENT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:581% → 1%
TTUDrive 11TD8 plays · 46 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
KENTDrive 12INT TD5 plays · 32 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+38
99.6%
CJ Montes pass complete to Gavin Garcia for 38 yds to the TTU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-6
99.7%
CJ Montes sacked by Romello Height for a loss of 6 yards to the TTU 33Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 16
OPP 33
-55
99.8%
CJ Montes pass intercepted Skyler Gill-Howard return for 55 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK) (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13FUMBLE7 plays · 20 yds · 3:300% → 0%
TTUDrive 14FG12 plays · 16 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q2 4:02
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+11
99.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 11 yds to the KENT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
99.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 6 yds to the KENT 23Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
99.8%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Sampson,Howard) 5 yards from KSU17 to KSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 15
OPP 22
-10
99.8%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Morton,Behren pass complete short right to Williams,J'Koby caught at KSU16, for 0 yards to the KSU22 PENALTY TTU Holding (Ponton,Jacob) 10 yards from KSU22 to KSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 25
OPP 32
+3
99.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 3 yds to the KENT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 0:570% → 0%
TTUDrive 16TD4 plays · 60 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 7 yds to the TTU 47Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+50
99.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 50 yds to the KENT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 3 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 1:520% → 0%
TTUDrive 19DOWNS7 plays · 54 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.9%
PENALTY KSU Offside (Maddox,Mason) 5 yards from TTU11 to TTU16. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 22 yds · 3:100% → 0%
TTUDrive 21TD4 plays · 57 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Kelby Valsin for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 3
50
+12
99.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Bryson Jones for 12 yds to the KENT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
99.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Bryson Jones for 38 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
99.9%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun DeShields,Dru pass complete short right to Brown,Sebastian caught at KSU24, for 8 yards to the KSU26 (Smith,Wesley) PENALTY KSU Holding (Hill,Jamarcus) 9 yards from KSU18 to KSU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+4
100.0%
Charlie Durkin punt for 46 yds , Tristian Gentry returns for 4 yds to the TTU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q3 2:14
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 6 yds to the TTU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Roy Alexander for 3 yds to the TTU 40Similar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Jack Burgess punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Wayne Harris at the KENT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24TD8 plays · 83 yds · 3:350% → 0%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
100.0%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun DeShields,Dru pass complete short left to Hicks,Marques caught at KSU10, for 2 yards to the KSU19 (Morgan,Peyton; Lemons,Chris) PENALTY TTU Offside (Washington,Amier) 5 yards from KSU17 to KSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 5
OWN 22
+38
100.0%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Ardell Banks for 38 yds to the TTU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+18
100.0%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Terik Mulder for 18 yds to the TTU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25FUMBLE4 plays · 6 yds · 0:16100% → 100%
KENTDrive 26TD3 plays · 31 yds · 1:180% → 0%
TTUDrive 27TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
KENTDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:560% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29END OF GAME12 plays · 60 yds · 5:36100% → 100%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
100.0%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Michael Dever for 7 yds to the TTU 36Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+5
100.0%
Adam Hill run for 15 yds to the KENT 49 for a 1ST down Texas Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Dever) to the TTU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+12
100.0%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Price Morgan for 12 yds to the KENT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 6:31
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 42 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 10:24
Cameron Dickey run for 1 yd for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 8:35
CJ Montes pass intercepted Skyler Gill-Howard return for 55 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK) (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
+0.1