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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreHOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:19 · Conner Weigman pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 74 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:00: Timeout , clock 02:00 — RICE win probability +12.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q2 9:20: Enock Gota 42 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +1.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:04: Timeout Rice, clock 01:04 — RICE win probability +7.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:20: Enock Gota 42 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +1.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:02: Chase Jenkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — RICE win probability +9.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 13:22HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snapGo for it79.0%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q1 11:43RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snapGo for it21.6%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.6%average punt
- Q1 10:31HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 37, tiedClose callPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:31HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 37, tiedClose callPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:40HOU 4th & 4 at RICE 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.7%48% to convertField goal75.3%−0.328% to makePunt75.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:40HOU 4th & 4 at RICE 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.7%48% to convertField goal75.3%−0.328% to makePunt75.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 0:47HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snapGo for it72.4%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.8%average punt
- Q2 9:20RICE 4th & 12 at HOU 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snapGo for it31.7%−0.922% to convertField goalTheir call32.6%68% to makePunt28.9%−3.6average punt
- Q2 9:20RICE 4th & 12 at HOU 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snapGo for it31.7%−0.922% to convertField goalTheir call32.6%68% to makePunt28.9%−3.6average punt
- Q3 4:34RICE 4th & 26 at RICE 9, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it13.8%−2.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.2%average punt
- Q3 4:34RICE 4th & 26 at RICE 9, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it6.0%−2.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q4 4:37RICE 4th & 7 at HOU 46, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%37% to convertField goal1.9%−0.123% to makePunt1.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 0:44HOU 4th & 7 at RICE 29, up 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snapGo for it95.8%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call95.9%58% to makePunt93.0%−2.9average punt
- Q4 1:46RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 33, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 0 of 1HOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q4 9:02RICE Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick10.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call9.7%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 3:40HOU Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHOUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1986% → 86%
RICEDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4714% → 15%
Q1 11:43
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+2
15.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 42 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 2 yds to the HOU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0385% → 84%
RICEDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 2:5715% → 16%
HOUDrive 5DOWNS10 plays · 20 yds · 4:4384% → 82%
Q1 5:40
4TH & 4
OPP 43
-3
18.0%
Conner Weigman sacked by Ty Morris for a loss of 3 yards to the RICE 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 5 yds · 4:5083% → 80%
HOUDrive 7PUNT13 plays · 21 yds · 4:4381% → 79%
Q1 2:53
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+5
19.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Luke McGary for 5 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+18
20.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 18 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+11
21.1%
Liam Dougherty punt for 41 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 11 yds to the RICE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8FG22 plays · 47 yds · 9:1021% → 27%
Q1 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+18
21.7%
Conner Weigman pass to Amare Thomas for 18 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+11
22.8%
Liam Dougherty punt for 41 yds to the RICE 29, Tyson Thompson returns for 11 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+11
22.9%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 11 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT22 plays · 10 yds · 8:2422% → 31%
Q2 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+11
22.3%
Chase Jenkins pass to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 11 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
27.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 16 yds to the HOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
30.7%
Liam Dougherty punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT12 plays · 11 yds · 3:0166% → 75%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
34.4%
to Dean Connors, Houston Penalty, personalfoul (Dalton Merryman)Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+21
35.4%
Conner Weigman pass to Tanner Koziol for 21 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+54
22.8%
Dean Connors run for 54 yds to the RICE 0, for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
25.2%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT7 plays · -16 yds · 10:5325% → 14%
Q3 5:38
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+3
16.1%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 3 yds to the RICE 20Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-11
15.3%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Eddie Walls III for a loss of 11 yards to the RICE 9Similar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
14.0%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the RICE 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD15 plays · 76 yds · 6:4283% → 86%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
15.8%
run for 3 yds to the HOU 37 fumbled, recovered by HOU Conner WeigmanSimilar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+14
16.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 14 yds to the RICE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
15.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 2 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+15
15.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 15 yds to the RICE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
14.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Luke McGary for 8 yds to the RICE 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD28 plays · 75 yds · 19:0483% → 86%
Q3 11:26
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+14
16.9%
Conner Weigman pass to Stacy Sneed for 14 yds to the RICE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
15.4%
Conner Weigman pass to Amare Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 49Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+15
15.6%
Conner Weigman pass to Tanner Koziol for 15 yds to the RICE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
14.2%
Conner Weigman run for 9 yds to the RICE 0, for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
6.1%
Chase Jenkins run for 17 yds to the RICE 42 for a 1ST down Rice Penalty, Offensive Holding (Artis Cole) to the RICE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+3
4.9%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Tyson Thompson for 3 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.9%
Chase Jenkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14DOWNS13 plays · 26 yds · 16:379% → 2%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
8.6%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Brandon Mack II for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 17Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-11
8.2%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Eddie Walls III for a loss of 11 yards to the RICE 9Similar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
2.4%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 4 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
2.4%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 4 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 7
OPP 46
-5
2.2%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Corey Platt Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the RICE 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD12 plays · 49 yds · 15:4697% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 8 yds · 13:480% → 0%
Q4 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-37
0.3%
Will James return for 37 yds to the RICE 0, for a TD, Chase Jenkins pass intercepted (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
0.1%
Drew Devillier pass complete to David Kasemervisz for 1 yd to the RICE 33Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+20
0.0%
Alex Bacchetta punt blocked by Myles Parker blocked by Myles ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:00
Timeout , clock 02:00
+12.5
TD · Q4 9:02
Chase Jenkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+9
FG · Q2 1:04
Timeout Rice, clock 01:04
+7.2