2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:31 · Kade Hensley 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:22: Jahiem White run for 32 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — WVU win probability +4.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q1 1:07: Brack Peacock 37 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +3.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:36: Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd for a TD (Brack Peacock KICK) — OHIO win probability +11.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:31: David Dellenbach kickoff for 65 yds , Preston Fox return for 28 yds to the WVU 37 West Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WVU 18 — WVU win probability +2.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:19: Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 31 yds for a TD (Brack Peacock KICK) — OHIO win probability +14.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9WVU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 12:56OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snapGo for it42.8%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.8%average punt
- Q1 11:29WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snapGo for it56.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.6%average punt
- Q1 5:33OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it44.8%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.9%average punt
- Q1 1:07OHIO 4th & 7 at WVU 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snapGo for it40.6%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call41.0%75% to makePunt37.2%−3.8average punt
- Q2 14:47WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 31, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snapGo for it55.4%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.0%average punt
- Q2 9:53OHIO 4th & 21 at WVU 21, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snapGo for it41.6%−2.18% to convertField goalTheir call43.7%74% to makePunt39.1%−4.6average punt
- Q2 8:36WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 27, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it55.2%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q2 1:44WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it43.5%−1.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.0%average punt
- Q2 0:21WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it34.0%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.2%average punt
- Q3 12:31WVU 4th & 7 at OHIO 19, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snapGo for it30.4%−0.835% to convertField goalTheir call31.3%77% to makePunt23.4%−7.9average punt
- Q3 8:10WVU 4th & 10 at OHIO 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it32.5%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%average punt
- Q3 8:10OHIO 4th & 2 at WVU 46, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.6%57% to convertField goal68.2%−3.423% to makePunt70.0%−1.6average punt
- Q3 0:16WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 48, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 27.1% before the snapGo for it28.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.7%−1.9average punt
- Q4 12:29WVU 4th & 24 at WVU 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it16.0%−4.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.9%average punt
- Q4 10:08OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 29, up 7Close callPunted · 82.5% before the snapGo for it83.3%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.4%−0.9average punt
- Q4 8:21WVU 4th & 8 at OHIO 37, down 7Close callWent for it · 20.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.4%−0.135% to convertField goal19.5%40% to makePunt16.9%−2.6average punt
- Q4 6:18OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it86.4%−0.940% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.3%average punt
- Q4 0:17OHIO 4th & 3 at WVU 29, up 7Close callWent for it · 93.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.6%−0.552% to convertField goal93.1%58% to makePunt90.8%−2.3average punt
- Q4 0:17OHIO 4th & 3 at WVU 29, up 7Close callWent for it · 93.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.6%−0.552% to convertField goal93.1%58% to makePunt90.8%−2.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WVU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:22WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.8%97% to makeGo for two57.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:36OHIO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.0%97% to makeGo for two53.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:19OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.3%97% to makeGo for two66.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0438% → 39%
WVUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2761% → 61%
Q1 11:29
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+1
39.3%
Oliver Straw punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OHIO 3 , Max Rodarte returns for 1 yd to the OHIO 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT13 plays · 42 yds · 5:5639% → 41%
WVUDrive 4TD8 plays · 89 yds · 2:1159% → 65%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
40.7%
Rodney Gallagher III run for 16 yds to the WVU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+3
40.6%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jahiem White for 3 yds to the WVU 31Similar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
40.2%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 31 yds to the OHIO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5FG9 plays · 60 yds · 2:1036% → 39%
Q1 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+15
35.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Navarro,Parker pass incomplete short left to Pugh,Eian thrown to Ohio35 PENALTY WVU Roughing The Passer (Woods,Ashton) 15 yards from Ohio24 to Ohio39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+38
36.1%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 38 yds to the WVU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+8
36.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 8 yds to the WVU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1661% → 59%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
39.5%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jaden Bray for 7 yds to the WVU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7MISSED FG10 plays · 41 yds · 4:5439% → 38%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
39.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 19 yds to the WVU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+11
40.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eian Pugh for 11 yds to the WVU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
40.7%
Parker Navarro sacked by Fred Perry for a loss of 6 yards to the WVU 14Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-9
40.2%
Parker Navarro run for a loss of 9 yards to the WVU 23 Parker Navarro fumbled, recovered by WVU Parker NavarroSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
+15
39.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Navarro,Parker pass complete short middle to Pugh,Eian caught at WVU08, for 15 yards to the WVU08 (Woods,Ashton) PENALTY Ohio Holding declined Ohio Holding (Rhodes Jr.,Shedrick) 10 yards from WVU23 to WVU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 33
+12
38.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 12 yds to the WVU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1760% → 59%
OHIODrive 9TD17 plays · 71 yds · 6:0039% → 56%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
39.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 11 yds to the OHIO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
41.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Max Rodarte for 22 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+12
41.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Duncan Brune for 12 yds to the WVU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
41.9%
PENALTY Ohio Delay Of Game 5 yards from WVU04 to WVU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
41.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Navarro,Parker pass incomplete short middle to Hendricks,Chase thrown to WVU02 broken up by Harrington,Justin PENALTY WVU Holding (Tarnue,Kekoura) 5 yards from WVU09 to WVU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4746% → 43%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
54.3%
Shotgun White,Jahiem rush left for 0 yards to the WVU18 (Thomeson,Jalen) PENALTY Ohio Horse Collar Tackle declined Ohio Face Mask (Thomeson,Jalen) 15 yards from WVU18 to WVU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
54.1%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Clay Ash for no gain to the WVU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD4 plays · 74 yds · 0:2555% → 73%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
55.3%
Shotgun Navarro,Parker pass incomplete deep left to Gossett,Caleb thrown to WVU46 PENALTY WVU Pass Interference (Lewis,Darrian) 15 yards from Ohio26 to Ohio41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
57.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 11 yds to the WVU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
58.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Max Rodarte for 17 yds to the WVU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
72.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 31 yds for a TD (Brack Peacock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:5832% → 32%
Q2 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
68.1%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 12 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+9
68.5%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jaden Bray for 9 yds to the WVU 44Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
68.0%
Oliver Straw punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Max Rodarte at the OHIO 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14FG9 plays · 51 yds · 2:2436% → 40%
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+45
64.4%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jaden Bray for 45 yds to the OHIO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15INT8 plays · 41 yds · 3:0562% → 70%
Q3 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
62.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 4 yds to the OHIO 41Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+15
63.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Navarro,Parker pass incomplete deep right to Gossett,Caleb thrown to WVU30 PENALTY WVU Pass Interference (Lewis,Darrian) 15 yards from Ohio41 to WVU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
65.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 3 yds to the WVU 24Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-31
69.8%
Parker Navarro pass intercepted Darrian Lewis return for 31 yds to the OHIO 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1641% → 36%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17INT14 plays · 45 yds · 6:2168% → 74%
WVUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3335% → 31%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19INT5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1878% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 1:1331% → 24%
Q4 13:42
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-10
71.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,Jaylen rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Ohio40 (Fries,Jack) PENALTY WVU Holding (Krahe,Nick) 10 yards from Ohio49 to WVU41. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 2:2179% → 80%
Q4 12:29
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-5
78.8%
PENALTY Ohio False Start (Rhodes Jr.,Shedrick) 5 yards from Ohio26 to Ohio21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+1
78.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 1 yd to the OHIO 22 Ohio Penalty, Offensive Holding (Davion Weatherspoon) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+11
77.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Eian Pugh for 11 yds to the OHIO 29Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+7
80.4%
Magnus Haines punt for 49 yds , Preston Fox returns for 7 yds to the WVU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22DOWNS8 plays · 37 yds · 1:4725% → 22%
OHIODrive 23PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0388% → 93%
Q4 8:21
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
88.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 1 yd Chase Hendricks fumbled, recovered by OHIOSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-5
87.5%
PENALTY Ohio Delay Of Game 5 yards from Ohio43 to Ohio38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+12
92.5%
Magnus Haines punt for 40 yds , Preston Fox returns for 12 yds to the WVU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24Uncategorized5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0017% → 19%
Q4 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
83.2%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 2 yds to the WVU 38Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+3
83.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Marchiol,Nicco pass intercepted by Walker,DJ at WVU50, End Of Play PENALTY Ohio Pass Interference (Thomeson,Jalen) 3 yards from WVU38 to WVU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
80.3%
Nicco Marchiol sacked by Michael Molnar for a loss of 8 yards to the WVU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25INT6 plays · 9 yds · 3:0518% → 16%
Q4 6:18
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+14
84.2%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Clay Ash for 14 yds to the OHIO 41Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-5
80.8%
PENALTY WVU False Start (Vaughn,Cam) 5 yards from Ohio41 to Ohio46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
80.8%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Clay Ash for no gain to the OHIO 41Similar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 4
OPP 41
-5
82.1%
PENALTY WVU False Start (Vaughn,Cam) 5 yards from Ohio41 to Ohio46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-21
84.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass intercepted Cameron Hollobaugh return for 21 yds to the WVU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26DOWNS14 plays · 20 yds · 2:5697% → 98%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
97.2%
Parker Navarro sacked by Chase Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the OHIO 48Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+13
97.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 13 yds to the WVU 29Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+2
98.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 2 yds to the WVU 27Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+2
98.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 2 yds to the WVU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 7 yds · 0:176% → 6%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
94.4%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Oran Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the WVU 36Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
93.5%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Clay Ash for 3 yds to the WVU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
94.1%
Nicco Marchiol sacked by Anas Luqman for a loss of 5 yards to the WVU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:19
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 31 yds for a TD (Brack Peacock KICK)
+14.3
TD · Q2 2:36
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd for a TD (Brack Peacock KICK)
+11.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+5.9