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ARMY

Army 24 at Kansas State 21

KSU
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:29 · James Wagenseller punt for 47 yds , Sterling Lockett returns for no gain to the KSU 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+37.6Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:00: Cale Hellums pass complete to Brady Anderson for 2 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK) — ARMY win probability +4.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 3:20: Cale Hellums run for 1 yd for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK) — ARMY win probability +21.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:08: Anderson Britton kickoff for 64 yds , Bryce Noernberg return for 99 yds for a TD (Avery Johnson pass to Jaron Tibbs for Two-Point Conversion) — KSU win probability +23.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:46: Dawson Jones 35 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +6.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:52: Cale Hellums run for 14 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK) — ARMY win probability +51.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 11:21KSU 4th & 2 at ARMY 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.5%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:29ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:29KSU 4th & 2 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:20ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:47KSU 4th & 7 at ARMY 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:28ARMY 4th & 13 at ARMY 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:25KSU 4th & 12 at ARMY 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00ARMY 4th & 2 at KSU 2, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:03ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:18KSU 4th & 5 at ARMY 47, up 6
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:59ARMY 4th & 3 at KSU 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−9.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:30ARMY 4th & 3 at KSU 4, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−11.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:36ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.5%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:46ARMY 4th & 11 at KSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−3.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−10.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:30ARMY 4th & 4 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.0%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:50ARMY 4th & 1 at KSU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−15.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:52KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.1%−7.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:47KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:00ARMY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:20ARMY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:08KSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:52ARMY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−2.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:0591% → 90%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
91.0%
Joe Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 11
50
0
91.0%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Joe JacksonSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 11
50
+15
90.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 15 yds to the ARMY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
90.8%
Joe Jackson run for 11 yds to the ARMY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
90.7%
DeVon Rice run for 1 yd to the ARMY 23Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+8
90.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 8 yds to the ARMY 15Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-1
90.4%
Joe Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 16Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
90.3%
L. Rodriguez 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:3110% → 11%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.2%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the ARMY 28Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
90.1%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
90.0%
Noah Short run for 6 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
89.8%
Army Penalty, False Start (Parker Poloskey) to the ARMY 31Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-3
89.7%
Cale Hellums run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 28Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+4
89.7%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+6
89.6%
Cale Hellums run for 6 yds to the ARMY 38Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
89.5%
James Wagenseller punt for 47 yds , Sterling Lockett returns for no gain to the KSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:3389% → 89%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
89.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 16 yds to the KSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
89.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Brayden Loftin for 9 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
89.1%
JB Price run for 2 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
89.0%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
89.0%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Will AnciauxSimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
88.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 2
50
0
88.5%
Simon McClannan punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:2812% → 13%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.4%
Noah Short run for 1 yd to the ARMY 21Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
88.3%
Cale Hellums pass complete to Samari Howard for 8 yds to the ARMY 29Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
88.2%
Cale Hellums run for 2 yds to the ARMY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
87.7%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds to the ARMY 36Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
87.3%
Jake Rendina run for 3 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
87.0%
Cale Hellums run for 2 yds to the ARMY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
86.9%
Noah Short run for 4 yds to the ARMY 45Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
86.5%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ARMY 46Similar
Q2 14:26
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
86.3%
Carson Smith run for 2 yds to the ARMY 48Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
86.7%
Cale Hellums pass incomplete to Carson SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:2587% → 89%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
87.4%
DeVon Rice run for 13 yds to the ARMY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
87.2%
DeVon Rice run for 5 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-5
86.8%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the ARMY 26 Kansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jemyri Davis) to the ARMY 35Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+3
86.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 3 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+32
88.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 32 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5111% → 11%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
88.6%
Noah Short run for 17 yds to the ARMY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
88.3%
Army Penalty, False Start (Samari Howard) to the ARMY 37Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+2
88.7%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
88.6%
Cale Hellums run for no gain to the ARMY 39Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
88.9%
Cale Hellums pass incomplete to Parker PoloskeySimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
89.2%
James Wagenseller punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Sterling Lockett at the KSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 6:3588% → 91%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
88.4%
JB Price run for no gain to the KSU 12Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
88.3%
DeVon Rice run for no gain to the KSU 12Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+21
88.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 21 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
88.7%
Joe Jackson run for 15 yds to the KSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
89.1%
Avery Johnson run for 7 yds to the ARMY 45Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+11
89.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Adonis Moise for 11 yds to the ARMY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
89.3%
DeVon Rice run for 7 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+9
89.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 9 yds to the ARMY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
88.4%
DeVon Rice run for 2 yds to the ARMY 16Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+1
88.3%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the ARMY 15Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-5
88.2%
Johnson, Avery pass complete to Tibbs, Jaron for 7 yards to the ARMY8, PENALTY KANSASST illegal formation (TEAM) 5 yards to the ARMY20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 12
OPP 20
0
88.2%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Brayden LoftinSimilar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+38
90.6%
Luis Rodriguez 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8END OF HALF
21 plays · 75 yds · 2:0310% → 15%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.2%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ARMY 26Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
90.3%
Noah Short run for 7 yds to the ARMY 33Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
90.0%
Cale Hellums run for 2 yds to the ARMY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
89.9%
Cale Hellums run for 9 yds to the ARMY 44Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
89.1%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the ARMY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
89.4%
Cale Hellums run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 45Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+6
90.1%
Cale Hellums pass complete to Samari Howard for 6 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+10
89.6%
Cale Hellums pass complete to Brady Anderson for 10 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
88.9%
Cale Hellums run for 11 yds to the KSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
88.3%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
88.9%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+18
89.5%
Cale Hellums pass complete to Noah Short for 18 yds to the KSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
88.8%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the KSU 4Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
88.8%
Cale Hellums pass complete to Samari Howard for 2 yds to the KSU 2Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.5%
Cale Hellums pass incomplete to Parker PoloskeySimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.7%
Cale Hellums pass complete to Brady Anderson for 2 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3516% → 15%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.3%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the ARMY 29Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
83.6%
Hayden Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 28Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
84.5%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ARMY 29Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
84.8%
James Wagenseller punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1785% → 85%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
85.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 17 yds to the KSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
86.4%
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 8
50
+3
86.2%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the ARMY 47Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
85.9%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
84.8%
Simon McClannan punt for 36 yds , Aden Self returns for no gain to the ARMY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11TD
15 plays · 89 yds · 7:4517% → 39%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
83.4%
Noah Short run for 3 yds to the ARMY 14Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+52
83.1%
Noah Short pass complete to Brady Anderson for 52 yds to the KSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
79.7%
Noah Short run for 3 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
78.8%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
79.9%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the KSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
77.9%
Carson Smith run for 5 yds to the KSU 18Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
77.8%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the KSU 17Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+1
79.0%
Noah Short run for 1 yd to the KSU 16Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+5
80.0%
Hayden Reed run for 5 yds to the KSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
77.0%
Carson Smith run for 3 yds to the KSU 8Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
76.6%
Cale Hellums run for no gain to the KSU 8Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+4
77.5%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the KSU 4Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+3
82.5%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the KSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.1%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 6:5415% → 22%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.8%
Carson Smith run for 2 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
84.6%
Cale Hellums run for 6 yds to the ARMY 33Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
85.3%
Carson Smith run for 1 yd to the ARMY 34Similar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+16
86.0%
Cale Hellums run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
50
+2
82.8%
Carson Smith run for 2 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
82.7%
Noah Short run for 2 yds to the KSU 46Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+9
84.7%
Cale Hellums run for 9 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
84.2%
Carson Smith run for 3 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+17
82.6%
Noah Short run for 17 yds to the KSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
82.8%
Briggs Bartosh run for 2 yds to the KSU 15Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-3
82.7%
Cale Hellums pass complete to Noah Short for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 18Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
84.5%
Cale Hellums pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+35
78.1%
Dawson Jones 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
17 plays · 56 yds · 7:1625% → 80%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
75.5%
Carson Smith run for 1 yd to the ARMY 45Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
75.4%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 4
50
0
73.7%
Cale Hellums run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 4
50
+6
76.2%
Cale Hellums run for 6 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
72.5%
David Clerk run for 5 yds to the KSU 39Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
71.5%
Briggs Bartosh run for 3 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+5
71.9%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds to the KSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
69.6%
Carson Smith run for 4 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
69.1%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds to the KSU 22Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
70.9%
Cale Hellums run for no gain to the KSU 22Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
75.3%
Cale Hellums run for 2 yds to the KSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
70.6%
Briggs Bartosh run for 6 yds to the KSU 14Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
70.5%
Cale Hellums run for no gain to the KSU 14Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
19.7%
Cale Hellums run for 14 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15INT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:5534% → 34%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 9 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
37.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 5 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.5%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
34.9%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+5
33.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jemyri Davis for 5 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+7
31.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 7 yds to the ARMY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
38.3%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
37.2%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Adonis MoiseSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-8
33.8%
Avery Johnson pass intercepted Collin Matteson return for 8 yds to the KSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16END OF GAME
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:5590% → 93%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
10.4%
Cale Hellums run for a loss of 10 yards to the ARMY 44Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 20
OWN 44
-12
9.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the ARMY 32Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 32
OWN 32
+8
7.5%
TEAM run for 8 yds to the ARMY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:52
Cale Hellums run for 14 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
-51.8
TD · Q3 3:08
Anderson Britton kickoff for 64 yds , Bryce Noernberg return for 99 yds for a TD (Avery Johnson pass to Jaron Tibbs for Two-Point Conversion)
+23.3
TD · Q3 3:20
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
-21.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com