2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:58 · Henry Way punt for 34 yds to the WEB
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:49: Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the WEB 10 — WEB win probability +0.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q1 4:15: Michael Salgado-Medina 32 yd FG GOOD — WEB win probability +0.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:51: Michael Salgado-Medina 31 yd FG GOOD — WEB win probability +0.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q1 0:00: Quincy Craig run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 15 — ARIZ win probability +2.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:56: (09:05) Shotgun Fifita,Noah rush left for 3 yards gain to the WSU00, End Of Play PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Wooten,Michael) 10 yards from WSU03 to WSU13. NO PLAY. — ARIZ win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 9:08WEB 4th & 6 at WEB 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q1 9:08WEB 4th & 6 at WEB 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q1 7:58WEB 4th & 9 at WEB 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q1 7:58WEB 4th & 9 at WEB 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q1 4:15ARIZ 4th & 4 at WEB 8, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.7%42% to convertField goalTheir call95.6%−<0.190% to makePunt95.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 5:18WEB 4th & 13 at WEB 38, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q1 0:44WEB 4th & 4 at WEB 42, down 10Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it5.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:38ARIZ 4th & 1 at WEB 32, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.5%71% to convertField goal93.9%−0.551% to makePunt93.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 8:51ARIZ 4th & 13 at WEB 13, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.4%−0.417% to convertField goalTheir call93.8%85% to makePunt92.1%−1.6average punt
- Q2 11:38ARIZ 4th & 1 at WEB 32, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.5%71% to convertField goal93.9%−0.551% to makePunt93.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:32WEB 4th & 8 at WEB 40, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q4 7:32ARIZ 4th & 18 at WEB 21, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snapGo for it94.9%−1.212% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%74% to makePunt93.2%−3.0average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARIZDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4798% → 98%
WEBDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:532% → 2%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
97.8%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Jayleen Record for 3 yds to the WEB 44Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
97.7%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Jayleen Record for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 1
50
-5
97.6%
(09:37) PENALTY WSU False Start (Edmonds,Jacob) 5 yards from WSU50 to WSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 1 yds · 4:032% → 2%
ARIZDrive 4FG8 plays · 46 yds · 4:0198% → 98%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
97.8%
Noah Fifita pass to Javin Whatley for 85 yds to the WEB 0, for a TD for a 1ST down (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+40
97.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 40 yds to the WEB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
97.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 11 yds to the WEB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-10
97.7%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Fifita,Noah rush right for 10 yards gain to the WSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:08 PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Tapa'atoutai,Rhino) 10 yards from WSU10 to WSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+6
97.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quincy Craig for 6 yds to the WEB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 5TD6 plays · 12 yds · 6:012% → 3%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
97.8%
(02:53) PENALTY ARIZ False Start (Buchanan,Ty) 5 yards from WSU12 to WSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT15 plays · 17 yds · 7:0698% → 97%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
97.5%
Noah Fifita pass, Arizona Penalty, holding (Chris Hunter), to Luke Wysong for 5 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+40
97.4%
Noah Fifita pass to Kris Hutson for 40 yds to the WEB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
97.4%
Noah Fifita pass to Kris Hutson for 11 yds to the WEB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
96.7%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Jayleen Record for 3 yds to the WEB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
96.6%
Henry Way punt for 38 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for no gain to the ARIZ 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 7INT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:133% → 3%
WEBDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 13 yds · 13:503% → 5%
Q1 2:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-25
96.9%
Jackson Gilkey pass intercepted, Genesis Smith return for 25 yds to the WEB 12Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-10
95.1%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Godley,Davion rush right for 3 yards gain to the WSU50 (Hunter,Gavin; McKnight,DeShawn) PENALTY WSU Holding (Bennee,Noah) 10 yards from WSU47 to WSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
95.4%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Noah Bennee for no gain to the WEB 37Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
95.4%
Henry Way punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD9 plays · 81 yds · 15:0597% → 95%
Q1 2:28
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
97.0%
Noah Fifita pass to Tre Spivey for 10 yds to the WEB 10, for a TD for a 1ST down (Michael Salgado-Medina PAT MISSED) (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+31
95.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
95.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Gio Richardson for 7 yds to the WEB 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 10END OF HALF7 plays · -1 yds · 17:183% → 6%
ARIZDrive 11MISSED FG30 plays · 61 yds · 19:1297% → 94%
Q2 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+27
96.3%
Noah Fifita pass to Luke Wysong for 27 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
96.1%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete, Weber State Penalty, passinterference (Angel King)Similar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+12
94.5%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Marvin Session for 12 yds to the WEB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+20
94.1%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Noah Bennee for 20 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
93.1%
(12:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Godley,Davion rush right for 1 yard loss to the ARIZ24 (Harris,Max) PENALTY ARIZ Illegal Substitution (Pese,Mays) 5 yards from ARIZ23 to ARIZ18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12FG16 plays · 74 yds · 6:0497% → 97%
Q2 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+27
96.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 27 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
96.3%
(11:06) Shotgun Fifita,Noah rush right for 0 yards to the WSU28 (Thompson,Keahnist) PENALTY WSU Holding (Daniels,Ishaan) 10 yards from WSU28 to WSU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
96.1%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Fifita,Noah pass incomplete short left to Whatley,Javin thrown to WSU00 broken up by King,Angel PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (King,Angel) 5 yards from WSU07 to WSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
96.9%
(09:05) Shotgun Fifita,Noah rush left for 3 yards gain to the WSU00, End Of Play PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Wooten,Michael) 10 yards from WSU03 to WSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 15 yds · 1:364% → 4%
Q2 1:26
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
95.9%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Gilkey,Jackson pass incomplete deep right to Session,Marvin thrown to ARIZ37 PENALTY ARIZ Offside (Patton,Porter) 5 yards from WSU33 to WSU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+3
95.8%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Marvin Session for 3 yds to the WEB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14MISSED FG14 plays · 54 yds · 22:5897% → 96%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
96.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Devin Hyatt for 10 yds to the WEB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+15
96.7%
Wesley Yarbrough run for 2 yds to the WEB 26 for a 1ST down Weber State Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (Davonta Morgan-Collins) to the WEB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+3.6
KEY PLAY · Q1 0:00
Quincy Craig run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 15
+2.7
FG · Q2 8:56
(09:05) Shotgun Fifita,Noah rush left for 3 yards gain to the WSU00, End Of Play PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Wooten,Michael) 10 yards from WSU03 to WSU13. NO PLAY.
+1.1