2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Milan Puskar Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadRMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreRMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:46 · Jayson Jenkins punt for 46 yds , Preston Fox returns for 28 yds to the WVU 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 11:44: Kade Hensley 27 yd FG GOOD — RMU win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:08: Jayson Jenkins 36 yd FG GOOD — RMU win probability +0.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: RMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:21: Jahiem White run for 1 yd for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — WVU win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:21: Jahiem White run for 4 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — WVU win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:52: Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 46 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — WVU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7RMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
- Q1 13:37RMU 4th & 4 at RMU 44, tiedClose callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:05RMU 4th & 8 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 3:46WVU 4th & 2 at WVU 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it98.0%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q1 1:35RMU 4th & 9 at RMU 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 11:44WVU 4th & 5 at RMU 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.2%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call97.2%89% to makePunt96.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 5:38RMU 4th & 10 at RMU 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 3:08RMU 4th & 9 at WVU 18, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call3.8%79% to makePunt2.9%−0.9average punt
- Q2 1:46RMU 4th & 18 at RMU 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q2 1:11WVU 4th & 19 at WVU 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.2%−0.711% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%average punt
- Q3 10:15RMU 4th & 13 at RMU 15, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q3 8:45WVU 4th & 9 at midfield, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q3 2:16RMU 4th & 9 at RMU 48, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00WVU 4th & 1 at RMU 47, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 12:07RMU 4th & 7 at RMU 13, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:14RMU 4th & 16 at RMU 19, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:14RMU 4th & 16 at RMU 19, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:29WVU 4th & 3 at RMU 26, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goal99.9%−0.164% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 6:29WVU 4th & 3 at RMU 26, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goal99.9%−0.164% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 4:15RMU 4th & 1 at RMU 35, down 35Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:13RMU 4th & 1 at RMU 34, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 10:15WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:21WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:21WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:52WVU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:16WVU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:15WVU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRMUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:181% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2TD12 plays · 83 yds · 3:2299% → 99%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
99.2%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 9 yds to the WVU 26Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+20
99.2%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 20 yds to the RMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+5
99.2%
PENALTY RMU Offside 5 yards from RMU24 to RMU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 3PUNT12 plays · 25 yds · 5:051% → 1%
WVUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1999% → 99%
Q1 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-10
98.8%
Justin Smith-Brown run for a loss of 10 yards to the WVU 10 Justin Smith-Brown fumbled, recovered by WVU Justin Smith-BrownSimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 15
OWN 10
+13
98.8%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jahiem White for 13 yds to the WVU 23Similar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Oliver Straw punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tahseen Howard at the RMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:111% → 1%
Q1 3:46
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-6
98.7%
Zach Tanner sacked by Hammond Russell IV for a loss of 6 yards to the RMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6FG14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5199% → 98%
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-5
98.5%
PENALTY WVU False Start (Ward,Ryan) 5 yards from WVU20 to WVU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
98.4%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jaden Bray for 8 yds to the WVU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+15
98.4%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jacob Barrick for 15 yds to the RMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 7FUMBLE6 plays · 23 yds · 2:272% → 2%
WVUDrive 8FUMBLE4 plays · 48 yds · 1:0998% → 98%
Q2 9:17
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
97.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 6 yds to the RMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
98.0%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 9 yds to the RMU 26Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+26
97.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 26 yds Cam Vaughn fumbled, recovered by WVUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:302% → 2%
Q2 8:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
97.9%
Zach Tanner pass complete to Thomas Lee for 9 yds to the RMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
98.0%
Robert Morris Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nathan Carabatsakis) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+3
97.8%
Jayson Jenkins punt for 54 yds , Preston Fox returns for 3 yds to the WVU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10FUMBLE2 plays · 18 yds · 0:4797% → 97%
RMUDrive 11FG5 plays · 18 yds · 1:433% → 3%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
97.3%
Zach Tanner pass complete to Chaz Middleton for 17 yds to the WVU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
96.8%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 11 yds Grayson Barnes fumbled, recovered by RMU Patrick McDonnellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:084% → 3%
Q2 2:54
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-3
96.7%
Zach Tanner sacked by Reid Carrico for a loss of 3 yards to the RMU 46Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 13
OWN 46
-5
97.0%
PENALTY RMU False Start (Riggins,Jerry) 5 yards from RMU46 to RMU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 18
OWN 41
+28
96.8%
Jayson Jenkins punt for 46 yds , Preston Fox returns for 28 yds to the WVU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:3597% → 96%
Q2 1:46
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-1
96.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jahiem White for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 1:113% → 4%
WVUDrive 16TD10 plays · 64 yds · 3:3396% → 98%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+20
96.4%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 20 yds to the RMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:033% → 3%
WVUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3098% → 97%
Q3 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-5
97.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Marchiol,Nicco pass complete short right to Fox,Preston caught at RMU38, for 9 yards to the RMU38 (Henry,Tyler) PENALTY WVU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Young Bear,Walter) 5 yards from RMU47 to WVU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+7
97.4%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Oran Singleton Jr. for 7 yds to the RMU 45Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 4
OPP 45
-5
97.3%
PENALTY WVU False Start (Crawford,Ty'Kieast) 5 yards from RMU45 to RMU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 9
50
0
97.1%
Oliver Straw punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tahseen Howard at the RMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · 12 yds · 2:333% → 3%
Q3 8:45
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+10
97.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Tanner,Zach pass incomplete short middle to Lee,Thomas thrown to RMU30 PENALTY WVU Holding (Coats Jr.,Michael) 10 yards from RMU18 to RMU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-2
96.7%
Zach Tanner sacked by Hammond Russell IV for a loss of 2 yards to the RMU 24 Zach Tanner fumbled, recovered by WVU Reid Carrico , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20TD3 plays · 24 yds · 0:5198% → 99%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
97.5%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jaden Bray for 11 yds to the RMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 3:051% → 1%
Q3 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
98.9%
Zach Tanner pass complete to Tyler Evans for 9 yds to the RMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22TD12 plays · 81 yds · 3:2499% → 100%
Q3 2:16
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
99.1%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 6 yds to the WVU 28Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
99.2%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jaden Bray for 7 yds to the WVU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-5
99.3%
PENALTY WVU False Start (Young Bear,Walter) 5 yards from WVU47 to WVU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+11
99.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 11 yds to the RMU 47Similar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
99.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 46 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 12:07
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+6
99.9%
Jayson Jenkins punt for 47 yds , Preston Fox returns for 6 yds to the WVU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24TD6 plays · 54 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-9
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,Jaylen rush right for 10 yards gain to the RMU41 (Dickerson,Robert) PENALTY WVU Holding (Haslam,Donovan) 9 yards from WVU49 to WVU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bowers,Cyncir rush left for 17 yards gain to the RMU09 (Roach,Noel), out of bounds PENALTY WVU Holding offsetting RMU Illegal Substitution offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 25PUNT7 plays · -6 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 10:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
99.9%
PENALTY RMU False Start (Piper,Riley) 5 yards from RMU24 to RMU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+33
100.0%
Jayson Jenkins punt for 37 yds , Preston Fox returns for 33 yds to the RMU 23Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+33
100.0%
Jayson Jenkins punt for 37 yds , Preston Fox returns for 33 yds to the WVU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 26DOWNS8 plays · 26 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
99.9%
PENALTY WVU False Start (Martin,Robby) 5 yards from WVU48 to WVU43. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q4 4:15
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Jayson Jenkins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 28TD3 plays · 71 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
Scotty Fox Jr. pass complete to Logan Ramper for 8 yds to the WVU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 29PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 1:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Jayson Jenkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 30FUMBLE3 plays · 41 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
100.0%
Khalil Wilkins run for 22 yds to the RMU 34 Khalil Wilkins fumbled, recovered by RMU Noel RoachSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:21
Jahiem White run for 4 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q3 11:21
Jahiem White run for 1 yd for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q4 13:52
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 46 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
+0.7