2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadUAPB aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreUAPB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · (00:12) Kneel down by Texas Tech at TTU28 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:15: Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TTU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:58: Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 41 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK) — TTU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UAPB made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:51UAPB 4th & 15 at UAPB 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q1 10:19UAPB 4th & 7 at UAPB 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 7:54UAPB 4th & 9 at UAPB 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 0:06UAPB 4th & 11 at UAPB 24, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 12:02UAPB 4th & 10 at UAPB 38, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 7:01UAPB 4th & 1 at TTU 44, down 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%70% to convertField goal-0.1%−0.227% to makePunt-0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:49TTU 4th & 6 at UAPB 13, up 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%85% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:15UAPB 4th & 9 at UAPB 26, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 4:47UAPB 4th & 2 at UAPB 33, down 54Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:41UAPB 4th & 1 at TTU 12, down 61Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%71% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.186% to makePunt-0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:12UAPB 4th & 4 at TTU 30, down 60Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%56% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UAPB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:44TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:12TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:15TTU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick99.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:58TTU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:56TTU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:21TTU Touchdown, up 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:28TTU Touchdown, up 53 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:00TTU Touchdown, up 60 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:16UAPB Touchdown, down 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:20TTU Touchdown, up 60 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUAPBDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 1:520% → 0%
TTUDrive 2TD4 plays · 39 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
UAPBDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q1 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Christian Peters pass complete to Jordan Jackson for 3 yds to the UAPB 28Similar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Zach Wieder punt blocked by Mikal Harrison-Pilot blocked by Mikal Harrison-Pilot (10:32) Wieder,Zach punt 0 yards to the APB28 blocked by Harrison-Pilot,Mikal recovered by TTU Low,Trent at APB21, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD1 play · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 14 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q1 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.6%
Christian Peters pass complete to Kareem Burke for 13 yds to the UAPB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6FG10 plays · 61 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
99.6%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Sampson,Howard) 5 yards from TTU28 to TTU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+20
99.6%
J'Koby Williams run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
50
+17
99.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 17 yds to the UAPB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
99.6%
(06:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,J'Koby rush left for 30 yards gain to the APB03 (Moore,Derron) PENALTY TTU Holding offsetting APB Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 5 yds to the UAPB 28Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+10
99.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 10 yds to the UAPB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 7INT4 plays · 10 yds · 0:070% → 0%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
99.6%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Peters,Christian pass complete short left to Sanchez,Bryant caught at APB18, for 4 yards loss to the APB18 (Gill-Howard,Skyler) PENALTY TTU Holding (Hunter,Lee) 10 yards from APB22 to APB32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-7
99.6%
Christian Peters pass intercepted Amier Boyd-Matthews return for 7 yds to the UAPB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD6 plays · 28 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q1 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Christian Peters pass complete to Bryant Sanchez for 2 yds to the UAPB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD5 plays · 70 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
99.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 13 yds to the UAPB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 1 yd to the UAPB 41Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+41
99.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 41 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:370% → 0%
TTUDrive 12TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 19Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
99.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Maurion Horn for 6 yds to the TTU 25Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to T.J. West for 9 yds to the TTU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
99.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 12 yds to the TTU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
99.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 16 yds to the UAPB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+21
99.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 21 yds to the UAPB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
99.8%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Morton,Behren sacked for loss of 12 yards to the APB23 (Hardwick,Tayvon) PENALTY APB Roughing The Passer (Hardwick,Tayvon) 6 yards from APB11 to APB05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 13DOWNS9 plays · 31 yds · 1:510% → 0%
TTUDrive 14FG7 plays · 43 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
UAPBDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Christian Peters pass complete to Za'Marion Webber for 1 yd to the UAPB 26Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Peters,Christian pass incomplete short left to Jackson,Jordan thrown to APB45 PENALTY TTU Offside (Bailey,David) 5 yards from APB26 to APB31. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD5 plays · 51 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
99.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Micah Hudson for 19 yds to the UAPB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 17END OF HALF4 plays · -4 yds · 1:110% → 0%
TTUDrive 18TD5 plays · 80 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Micah Hudson for 1 yd to the TTU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q3 4:47
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Zach Wieder punt for 35 yds , Tristian Gentry returns for no gain to the TTU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20TD5 plays · 68 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
99.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Kelby Valsin for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
99.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Leyton Stone for 19 yds to the UAPB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Leyton Stone for 9 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 21TD14 plays · 75 yds · 11:360% → 0%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
100.0%
Christian Peters pass complete to Ellis Stewart for 21 yds to the TTU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+18
100.0%
Christian Peters pass complete to Za'Marion Webber for 18 yds to the TTU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+3
100.0%
Christian Peters pass complete to Bryant Sanchez for 3 yds to the TTU 12Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Christian Peters pass complete to Ellis Stewart for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Glymph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22TD8 plays · 85 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
100.0%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Tyson Turner for 8 yds to the TTU 35Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+15
100.0%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Griffis,Mitch pass incomplete deep right to Jones,Bryson thrown to APB29 PENALTY APB Pass Interference (Green,Ja'Marlin) 15 yards from TTU35 to TTU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
100.0%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Bryson Jones for 13 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 23MISSED FG13 plays · 45 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
100.0%
Christian Peters pass complete to Bryant Sanchez for 1 yd to the UAPB 29Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+24
100.0%
Christian Peters pass complete to Bryant Sanchez for 24 yds to the TTU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
100.0%
PENALTY TTU Offside (Williams,Keyshawn) 5 yards from TTU47 to TTU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+4
100.0%
Christian Peters pass complete to D'Avery Robinson for 4 yds to the TTU 38Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
100.0%
Christian Peters pass complete to Za'Marion Webber for 6 yds to the TTU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:15
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+0.1
TD · Q2 13:58
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 41 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)
+0.1