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UND

North Dakota 35 at Kansas State 38

KSU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadUND aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreUND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:49 · Luke Silvernale punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior+33.3Home team on offense+2.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:24: Sawyer Seidl run for 16 yds for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK) — UND win probability +8.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:41: DeVon Rice run for 9 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK) — KSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:12: Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Korey Tai for 22 yds for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK) — UND win probability +17.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:19: Sawyer Seidl run for 20 yds for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK) — UND win probability +42.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:42: Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 6 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK) — KSU win probability +57.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UND made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:27KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:37UND 4th & 1 at UND 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:48KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:07KSU 4th & 1 at UND 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:26KSU 4th & 12 at UND 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53UND 4th & 1 at UND 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:36KSU 4th & 6 at UND 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:49UND 4th & 3 at UND 32, down 3
    Close callPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:28UND 4th & 9 at UND 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:39UND 4th & 8 at UND 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:33UND 4th & 23 at UND 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−2.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:47KSU 4th & 23 at KSU 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:32UND 4th & 6 at KSU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−1.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:00KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:05KSU 4th & 10 at UND 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−2.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−5.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:05KSU 4th & 10 at UND 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−2.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−5.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:45UND 4th & 11 at UND 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−2.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:05UND 4th & 10 at UND 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.0%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 2:54UND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:55KSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:46UND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:15KSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:24UND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:41KSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:41KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:12UND Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:19UND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:42KSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2597% → 96%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.7%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
96.6%
Avery Johnson run for no gain to the KSU 23Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+9
96.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 9 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
96.4%
Simon McClannan punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:354% → 4%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.4%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Korey Tai for 6 yds to the UND 31Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
96.3%
Xavier Leigh run for a loss of 1 yard to the UND 30Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
96.2%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to B.J. Fleming for 4 yds to the UND 34Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
96.1%
Luke Silvernale punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sterling Lockett at the KSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 6:0296% → 95%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
96.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 6 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-1
96.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 26Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+4
95.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 4 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+13
95.7%
Joe Jackson run for 13 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
95.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 9 yds to the UND 48Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
95.6%
DeVon Rice run for no gain to the UND 48Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
95.5%
Joe Jackson run for no gain to the UND 48Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+38
95.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 38 yds to the UND 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.3%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Brayden LoftinSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
95.3%
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the UND 8Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
95.1%
Avery Johnson sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the UND 12Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
95.0%
Luis Rodriguez 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:155% → 7%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
95.0%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Kristen Hoskins for 12 yds to the UND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.8%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to B.J. FlemingSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+27
94.8%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Xavier Leigh for 27 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+35
94.5%
Korey Tai run for 35 yds to the KSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Jerry Kaminski 0 Yd Run (C.J. Elrichs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 0:5094% → 94%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
93.7%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
93.6%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+19
93.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 19 yds to the UND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
93.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 5 yds to the UND 44Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+44
94.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 44 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:506% → 6%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.1%
Sawyer Seidl run for 5 yds to the UND 30Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
93.9%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Haydn Stay for 4 yds to the UND 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
93.6%
Gaven Ziebarth run for no gain to the UND 34Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
93.7%
Luke Silvernale punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Sterling Lockett at the KSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:0093% → 93%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+27
93.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DeVon Rice for 27 yds to the UND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.8%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
93.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Adonis Moise for 4 yds to the UND 43Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
93.5%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
93.2%
Simon McClannan punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 8TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:427% → 13%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.2%
Sawyer Seidl run for 2 yds to the UND 22Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
93.1%
PENALTY NODAK False Start (Thaden,Trace) 5 yards from NODAK22 to NODAK17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+25
93.0%
Jerry Kaminski run for 25 yds to the UND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
92.3%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Nate DeMontagnac for 21 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
91.9%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Xavier Leigh for 4 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+6
91.4%
Korey Tai run for 6 yds to the KSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
91.2%
Jerry Kaminski run for 5 yds to the KSU 22Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+21
90.8%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson pass complete to Deng Deng for 21 yds to the KSU 1 for a 1ST down Kansas State Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.5%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Kristen Hoskins for no gain to the KSU 1Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.4%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Korey Tai for no gain to the KSU 1Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.3%
Jerry Kaminski run for 1 yd for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:0913% → 13%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
87.1%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to B.J. FlemingSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-15
87.0%
Jerry Kaminski sacked by Cody Stufflebean for a loss of 15 yards to the KSU 34 Jerry Kaminski fumbled, recovered by UND Tobi Osunsanmi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-15
87.0%
Jerry Kaminski sacked by Cody Stufflebean for a loss of 15 yards to the KSU 34 Jerry Kaminski fumbled, recovered by UND Tobi Osunsanmi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:0489% → 92%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
88.8%
DeVon Rice run for 5 yds to the KSU 39Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+8
89.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 8 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
88.1%
Joe Jackson run for 7 yds to the UND 46Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+10
88.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 10 yds to the UND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
87.7%
Adonis Moise run for 6 yds to the UND 30Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+30
91.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 30 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 11TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 3:469% → 22%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
90.9%
Xavier Leigh run for a loss of 2 yards to the UND 23Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
90.8%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to B.J. FlemingSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
91.2%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Haydn Stay for 9 yds to the UND 32Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
90.8%
Luke Silvernale punt for 49 ydsSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.9%
Jerry Kaminski run for no gain to the UND 37Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
90.0%
PENALTY NODAK False Start (Hafer,Watson) 5 yards from NODAK37 to NODAK32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-7
90.2%
Xavier Leigh run for a loss of 7 yards to the UND 25Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 22
OWN 25
+23
90.5%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Caden Dennis for 23 yds to the UND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-11
88.8%
Jerry Kaminski sacked by Cody Stufflebean for a loss of 11 yards to the UND 37Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 21
OWN 37
-16
89.8%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Kaminski,Jerry sacked for loss of 3 yards to the NODAK34 (Bates,Travis) PENALTY KSTATE Face Mask (Clemons,Justice) 16 yards from NODAK37 to KSTATE47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
87.9%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Deng DengSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
88.3%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Caden DennisSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+13
88.7%
Sawyer Seidl run for 13 yds to the KSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
86.9%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Caden Dennis for 18 yds to the KSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
86.9%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Nate DeMontagnacSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
78.1%
Sawyer Seidl run for 16 yds for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
83.5%
(00:09) Kneel down by Kansas State at KSTATE25 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2519% → 18%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.5%
Xavier Leigh run for 1 yd to the UND 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
81.0%
Xavier Leigh run for no gain to the UND 26Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
81.0%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Korey TaiSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+22
81.6%
Luke Silvernale punt for 53 yds , Sterling Lockett returns for 22 yds to the KSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:3882% → 88%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
82.4%
Adonis Moise run for 2 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
81.9%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+8
81.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 8 yds to the UND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
81.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 4 yds to the UND 40Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
81.1%
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the UND 38Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+15
80.3%
Avery Johnson run for 15 yds to the UND 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
81.3%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Brayden LoftinSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+10
81.1%
Joe Jackson run for 10 yds to the UND 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
80.7%
DeVon Rice run for 4 yds to the UND 9Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
87.8%
DeVon Rice run for 9 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5616% → 15%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Nathan HromadkaSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.7%
Jerry Kaminski run for 2 yds to the UND 27Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
84.8%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to B.J. FlemingSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
85.4%
Luke Silvernale punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Sterling Lockett at the KSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:4985% → 92%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
84.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 4 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+4
84.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Brayden Loftin for 4 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+11
83.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 11 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
85.4%
Joe Jackson run for 9 yds to the UND 49Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+15
85.8%
Avery Johnson run for 15 yds to the UND 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
85.9%
DeVon Rice run for 9 yds to the UND 25Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+12
85.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 12 yds to the UND 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
92.2%
DeVon Rice run for 13 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:599% → 8%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.0%
Kristen Hoskins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UND 22Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-2
91.2%
Korey Tai run for a loss of 2 yards to the UND 20Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-8
91.5%
Jerry Kaminski sacked by Tobi Osunsanmi for a loss of 8 yards to the UND 12Similar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
91.7%
Luke Silvernale punt for 42 yds , Sterling Lockett returns for no gain to the KSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2792% → 91%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
92.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 45Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+15
91.9%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Avery pass intercepted by Lewis,Zach at NODAK22, End Of Play PENALTY NODAK Pass Interference (Walker,Bennett) 15 yards from KSTATE45 to NODAK40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
92.4%
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the UND 36Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
92.5%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+17
92.0%
Avery Johnson run for 17 yds to the KSU 47 Avery Johnson fumbled, recovered by UND Adonis MoiseSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 23
OWN 47
+18
90.8%
Simon McClannan punt for 42 yds , Zach Lewis returns for 18 yds to the UND 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 19TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:199% → 30%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
90.8%
Sawyer Seidl run for 4 yds to the UND 33Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+21
90.2%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Nathan Hromadka for 21 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
88.7%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Korey Tai for 3 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+5
89.4%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Sawyer Seidl for 5 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+2
88.9%
Sawyer Seidl run for 2 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+8
89.7%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to B.J. Fleming for 8 yds to the KSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
87.1%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Korey TaiSimilar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
87.3%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Haydn Stay for 12 yds to the KSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
70.0%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Korey Tai for 22 yds for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0581% → 79%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 8 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
82.2%
DeVon Rice run for no gain to the KSU 33Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
80.8%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
79.2%
Simon McClannan punt for 39 yds , Zach Lewis returns for 2 yds to the UND 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 21TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:2226% → 80%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
74.4%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Watson Hafer for 6 yds to the UND 36Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
71.6%
Jerry Kaminski run for 2 yds to the UND 38Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+5
70.9%
Xavier Leigh run for 5 yds to the UND 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
70.1%
Xavier Leigh run for 2 yds to the UND 45Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
69.2%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Korey TaiSimilar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+10
71.3%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to B.J. Fleming for 10 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
66.3%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Kaminski,Jerry pass incomplete deep left to Fleming,BJ thrown to KSTATE08 broken up by Rich,Zashon PENALTY KSTATE Pass Interference (Rich,Zashon) 15 yards from KSTATE45 to KSTATE30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
64.2%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Sawyer Seidl for 10 yds to the KSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
62.8%
Sawyer Seidl run for no gain to the KSU 20Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
20.1%
Sawyer Seidl run for 20 yds for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:5240% → 28%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
39.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 5 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+9
37.5%
Avery Johnson run for 9 yds to the UND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.2%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Joe JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
36.7%
Joe Jackson run for no gain to the UND 42Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
32.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
28.2%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
28.2%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:1687% → 88%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
13.2%
Xavier Leigh run for a loss of 1 yard to the UND 41Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+2
11.0%
Xavier Leigh run for 2 yds to the UND 43Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-5
11.7%
(01:57) PENALTY NODAK False Start (Tai,Korey) 5 yards from NODAK43 to NODAK38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+3
12.7%
Jerry Kaminski run for 3 yds to the UND 41Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+1
11.8%
Luke Silvernale punt for 41 yds , Sterling Lockett returns for 1 yd to the KSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 0:5924% → 93%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
23.9%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+13
23.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 13 yds to the KSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
24.8%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+15
23.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 15 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
28.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 9 yds to the UND 44Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
32.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
30.6%
Joe Jackson run for 5 yds to the UND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
27.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 8 yds to the UND 31Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+25
35.1%
Avery Johnson run for 25 yds to the UND 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 6 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:2724% → 21%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
76.3%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Xavier Leigh for no gain to the UND 35Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
76.4%
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Korey Tai for 12 yds to the UND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.2%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Korey TaiSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
73.4%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Caden DennisSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
75.4%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Xavier LeighSimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
78.9%
Jerry Kaminski pass incomplete to Caden DennisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
96.6%
(00:00) Kneel down by Kansas State at NODAK49 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:42
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 6 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
+57.5
TD · Q4 4:19
Sawyer Seidl run for 20 yds for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK)
-42.6
TD · Q4 10:12
Jerry Kaminski pass complete to Korey Tai for 22 yds for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK)
-17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com