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SFA

Stephen F. Austin 0 at Houston 27

HOU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:40 · J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the SFA 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseOffense timeoutsScore differentialDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+29.5Home team on offense+16.1Offense timeouts−15.6Score differential+8.5Defense timeouts−14.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:24: Ethan Sanchez 40 Yd Field Goal — HOU win probability +8.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q2 3:06: J'Marion Burnette 39 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick) — HOU win probability +13.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:00: Sam Vidlak pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 4 yds to the SFA 36 for a 1ST down — SFA win probability +6.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Jacob Hand kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — HOU win probability +4.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:36: Amare Thomas 20 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick) — HOU win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SFA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:50SFA 4th & 10 at SFA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:18HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:30SFA 4th & 6 at SFA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:41HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:20SFA 4th & 10 at SFA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:52SFA 4th & 8 at SFA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 10 at SFA 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:11SFA 4th & 2 at HOU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:24HOU 4th & 20 at SFA 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:01SFA 4th & 4 at SFA 49, down 10
    Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:40HOU 4th & 1 at SFA 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:07SFA 4th & 9 at SFA 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:37HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:19HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:59SFA 4th & 4 at SFA 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:06HOU 4th & 7 at SFA 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:09SFA 4th & 12 at SFA 23, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:35HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 34, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:12SFA 4th & 2 at SFA 44, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:05HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 48, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:12HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:06HOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:36HOU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SFADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:095% → 5%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.2%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 6 yds to the SFA 31Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
94.9%
Stephen F. Austin Penalty, personal foul (Erik Gray) to the SFA 26Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
94.8%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Blaine Green for a loss of 1 yard to the SFA 25Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete, broken up by Khalil LaufauSimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Lachie Pozzobon punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2795% → 94%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.6%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Koby YoungSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
94.5%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+4
94.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 4 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
93.8%
Liam Dougherty punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:426% → 7%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
93.8%
Jordan Nabors run for 3 yds to the SFA 23Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+11
93.5%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 11 yds to the SFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
93.0%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 4 yds to the SFA 38Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
92.7%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Kylon Harris, broken up by Zelmar VedderSimilar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
92.8%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Blaine Green, broken up by Latreveon McCutchinSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
92.8%
Lachie Pozzobon punt for 42 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for no gain to the HOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4293% → 92%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
92.6%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the HOU 21Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
92.2%
Conner Weigman run for 7 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
91.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Harvey Broussard III for 1 yd to the HOU 29Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
91.6%
Liam Dougherty punt for 58 yds , Bugs Mortimer returns for no gain to the SFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:148% → 8%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
91.6%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Kylon Harris, broken up by Marc Stampley IISimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
91.6%
Sam Vidlak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
91.6%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Gerard EdimoSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+21
91.6%
Lachie Pozzobon punt for 52 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 21 yds to the SFA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:5692% → 90%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
91.5%
J'Marion Burnette run for 6 yds to the SFA 35Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
91.3%
J'Marion Burnette run for 6 yds to the SFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
90.9%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Koby YoungSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
90.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 8 yds to the SFA 21Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+7
90.3%
J'Marion Burnette run for 7 yds to the SFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
90.0%
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds to the SFA 11Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
90.2%
Tanner Koziol 11 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2010% → 10%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.4%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the SFA 28Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
90.0%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for a loss of 1 yard to the SFA 27Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
89.7%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Jordan NaborsSimilar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
89.7%
Lachie Pozzobon punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:4788% → 83%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
88.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for a loss of 6 yards to the HOU 31Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+8
87.7%
Dean Connors run for 8 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+12
87.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 12 yds to the SFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
86.5%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 11
50
+7
85.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 7 yds to the SFA 43Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-5
85.1%
Houston Penalty, personal foul (Matthew Wykoff) to the SFA 48Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-5
84.7%
Houston Penalty, false start (Alvin Ebosele) to the HOU 47Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+4
84.1%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the SFA 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
82.9%
Liam Dougherty punt for 17 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:4214% → 17%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
85.6%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 2 yds to the SFA 34Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
85.0%
Jaylen Jenkins run for no gain to the SFA 34Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+5
84.6%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Clayton Wayland, broken up by Zelmar Vedder Houston Penalty, off-side (Latreveon McCutchin) to the SFA 39Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+8
84.0%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 8 yds to the SFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.3%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Gerard Edimo, broken up by Zelmar VedderSimilar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
83.6%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 5 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+3
82.8%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Clayton Wayland for 3 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
82.7%
Blaine Green run for no gain to the HOU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:4681% → 84%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
80.7%
J'Marion Burnette run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 5
50
+12
79.8%
J'Marion Burnette run for 12 yds to the SFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
79.4%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the SFA 38Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
78.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 11 yds to the SFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
79.0%
Dean Connors run for 15 yds to the SFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
78.7%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the SFA 11Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-15
77.3%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Mekhi Mews, broken up by Charles Demmings Houston Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Stephon Johnson) to the SFA 26Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 24
OPP 26
+4
76.9%
J'Marion Burnette run for 4 yds to the SFA 22Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 20
OPP 22
0
75.2%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Mekhi Mews, broken up by Michael Patterson IIISimilar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 20
OPP 22
+40
83.5%
Ethan Sanchez 40 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2217% → 17%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
82.6%
Bugs Mortimer run for 3 yds to the SFA 28 for a 1ST down Houston Penalty, personal foul (Sione Fotu) to the SFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
83.4%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for no gain to the SFA 43Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
83.2%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Kylon Harris for 6 yds to the SFA 49Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
82.1%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Jordan Nabors, broken up by Will JamesSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
82.9%
Lachie Pozzobon punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 3:4283% → 92%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
83.4%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the HOU 7Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
83.0%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the HOU 7Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+15
82.2%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Koby Young, broken up by Jalen Mayo for a 1ST down Stephen F. Austin Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jalen Mayo) to the HOU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
83.4%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 21Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+1
82.8%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the HOU 22Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+12
79.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 12 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
79.8%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Koby YoungSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
79.6%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the HOU 34Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+27
78.5%
Conner Weigman run for 27 yds to the SFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
92.0%
J'Marion Burnette 39 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 13INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:169% → 14%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
91.2%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the SFA 27Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
92.0%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFA 32Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
85.3%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 4 yds to the SFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
87.1%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Blaine Green for 10 yds to the SFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.5%
Sam Vidlak pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:5284% → 84%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
84.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the SFA 36Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
85.2%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
83.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the SFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
85.1%
Dean Connors run for 9 yds to the SFA 21Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
84.0%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the SFA 21Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
83.6%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the SFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3313% → 13%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
87.0%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 3 yds to the SFA 24Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
86.8%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete, broken up by Eddie Walls IIISimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-1
87.0%
Sam Vidlak run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2490% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.6%
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
89.4%
Conner Weigman sacked by Lowote Jurkin for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 26Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
88.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 11 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
89.0%
Conner Weigman run for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 33 Conner Weigman fumbled, recovered by HOU Conner WeigmanSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+16
89.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 16 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
90.3%
Stephen F. Austin Penalty, off-side (Jaydon Southard) to the SFA 46Similar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 5
OPP 46
-5
90.1%
Houston Penalty, false start (Demetrius Hunter) to the HOU 49Similar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
90.3%
Conner Weigman run for 11 yds to the SFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
92.0%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFA 41Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+23
91.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 23 yds to the SFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
92.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the SFA 16Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-4
93.5%
Mekhi Mews run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFA 20Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+20
97.3%
Amare Thomas 20 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:293% → 3%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.6%
Jordan Nabors run for 1 yd to the SFA 26Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
96.6%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Jerrell Wimbley for no gain to the SFA 26Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
96.6%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Kylon HarrisSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
96.6%
Lachie Pozzobon punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2497% → 97%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stacy SneedSimilar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
96.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the HOU 29Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+3
97.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 3 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+30
97.0%
Liam Dougherty punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFA 43 , Bugs Mortimer returns for 30 yds to the SFA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -27 yds · 2:464% → 2%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
96.5%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for no gain to the SFA 43 Stephen F. Austin Penalty, illegal formation (Ky Thomas) to the SFA 38Similar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-8
97.2%
Sam Vidlak sacked by Wrook Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the SFA 30Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 23
OWN 30
-9
97.4%
Sam Vidlak sacked by Brandon Mack II for a loss of 9 yards to the SFA 21 Sam Vidlak fumbled, recovered by SFA Giovanny Alegria , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 32
OWN 21
-5
97.4%
Stephen F. Austin Penalty, delay of game (Ky Thomas) to the SFA 16Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 37
OWN 16
0
97.4%
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for no gain to the SFA 16Similar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 37
OWN 16
0
97.6%
Lachie Pozzobon punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.6%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the HOU 38Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-2
98.7%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 36Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Amare Thomas, broken up by Ky ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 9
OWN 36
-5
98.6%
Houston Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the HOU 31Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Liam Dougherty punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.9%
Sam Vidlak pass incomplete to Derrick BohlerSimilar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
97.9%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the SFA 29Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
97.9%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the SFA 29Similar
Q4 14:59
4TH & 4
OWN 29
-1
98.2%
Jordan Nabors run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFA 28 Stephen F. Austin Penalty, Defensive holding (Gerard Edimo) to the SFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4999% → 100%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the SFA 25Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
99.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Jayden York, broken up by Lowote JurkinSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
99.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stephon Johnson, broken up by Jalen MayoSimilar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
99.9%
Ethan Sanchez 43 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the SFA 29Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-8
99.9%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the SFA 31 Stephen F. Austin Penalty, Offensive holding (Robert Keller) to the SFA 21Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 2 yds to the SFA 23Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Gavin Rutherford pass incomplete to Bugs MortimerSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Lachie Pozzobon punt for 44 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for no gain to the HOU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Koby YoungSimilar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Zeon Chriss run for 2 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Liam Dougherty punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 4:130% → 0%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
Gavin Rutherford run for 6 yds to the SFA 30Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the SFA 31Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Gavin Rutherford pass complete to Isaiah Davis for 2 yds to the SFA 38Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for no gain to the SFA 38Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+6
99.9%
Gavin Rutherford pass complete to Derrick Bohler for 6 yds to the SFA 44Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Gavin Rutherford pass incomplete to Anthony Williams Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Luke McGarySimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
99.9%
DJ Butler run for 5 yds to the SFA 39 Houston Penalty, Offensive holding (Demetrius Hunter) to the SFA 49Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 15
OPP 49
-7
99.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Mekhi Mews for a loss of 7 yards to the HOU 44Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 22
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
DJ Butler run for 4 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 18
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Liam Dougherty punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 27INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
100.0%
Gavin Rutherford pass complete to Clayton Wayland for 40 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
100.0%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 6 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-15
100.0%
Gavin Rutherford pass incomplete to Isaiah Davis Stephen F. Austin Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Isaiah Davis) to the HOU 49Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+5
100.0%
Gavin Rutherford pass complete to Jaylen Jenkins for 5 yds to the HOU 44Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Gavin Rutherford pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28Uncategorized
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
100.0%
DJ Butler run for 1 yd to the HOU 35Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Zeon Chriss run for 5 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
DJ Butler run for 15 yds to the SFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
DJ Butler run for 4 yds to the SFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:06
J'Marion Burnette 39 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)
+13.5
FG · Q2 8:24
Ethan Sanchez 40 Yd Field Goal
+8.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:00
Sam Vidlak pass complete to Jordan Nabors for 4 yds to the SFA 36 for a 1ST down
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com