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NAU

Northern Arizona 19 at Arizona State 38

ASU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreNAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:20 · Kanyon Floyd punt for 39 yds , Isaiah Eastman returns for 17 yds to the ASU 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+42.2Home team on offense+5.1Score differential+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Garbage-time factor+1.8Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:55: Jesus Gomez 36 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +1.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:24: Sam Leavitt run for 52 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — ASU win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:14: Ty Pennington pass complete to Nason Coleman for 3 yds for a TD (Samuel Hunsaker KICK) — NAU win probability +4.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:11: Sam Leavitt run for 18 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — ASU win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:20: Kenveon Stone run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NAU win probability +1.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NAU made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 13:26NAU 4th & 6 at NAU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32NAU 4th & 11 at NAU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:26ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 47, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:14NAU 4th & 4 at ASU 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:20ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:14NAU 4th & 8 at ASU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:51ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:13NAU 4th & 4 at NAU 46, down 11
    Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:29ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 7, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:20NAU 4th & 14 at NAU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:55ASU 4th & 19 at NAU 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:54NAU 4th & 6 at ASU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:15NAU 4th & 10 at ASU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:43NAU 4th & 1 at ASU 6, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−1.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:38ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:15NAU 4th & 8 at NAU 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:43ASU 4th & 3 at NAU 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:52NAU 4th & 1 at NAU 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:34NAU 4th & 7 at ASU 46, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:34NAU 4th & 7 at ASU 46, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:44ASU 4th & 6 at midfield, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:44ASU 4th & 6 at midfield, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 7:20NAU 4th & 13 at NAU 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:42ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:08ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:24ASU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:14NAU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:11ASU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:42ASU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:20NAU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:273% → 3%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.4%
Seth Cromwell run for 2 yds to the NAU 27Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.4%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Kolbe KatsisSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
97.3%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Seth Cromwell for 2 yds to the NAU 29Similar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+28
97.2%
Ben D'Aquila punt for 48 yds , Raleek Brown returns for 28 yds to the NAU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:3797% → 97%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
97.2%
(13:24) Shotgun Brown,Kyson rush left for 2 yards loss to the ASU49 (Beresford,Michael; Moses,Canyon) PENALTY ASU Holding (Atkins,Joshua) 10 yards from NAU49 to ASU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+10
97.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 10 yds to the NAU 49Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+22
97.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 22 yds to the NAU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
97.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 9 yds to the NAU 18Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+12
97.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 12 yds to the NAU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.1%
Raleek Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:433% → 3%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.9%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Kolbe Katsis for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 4
50
-2
96.8%
Seth Cromwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAU 48Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-5
96.8%
(09:13) PENALTY NAU False Start (Stout,Joey) 5 yards from NAU48 to NAU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
96.7%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Joey StoutSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
96.8%
Ben D'Aquila punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:0997% → 97%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+22
96.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 22 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
96.7%
Kyson Brown run for 11 yds to the ASU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
96.7%
PENALTY ASU False Start (McClain,Malik) 5 yards from ASU44 to ASU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
96.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jalen MossSimilar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 15
OWN 39
-6
96.6%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Ramere Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the ASU 33Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 21
OWN 33
+14
96.4%
Sam Leavitt run for 14 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+34
96.3%
Kyson Brown run for 34 yds to the NAU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
97.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 19 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
Q1 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
97.1%
PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from NAU03 to NAU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 71 yds · 2:433% → 4%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
96.8%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Kolbe Katsis for 12 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Keyshaun Elliott) to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
96.6%
Darvon Hubbard run for 1 yd to the ASU 47Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+28
96.6%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Isaiah Eastman for 28 yds to the ASU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
96.5%
Arizona State Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the ASU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.5%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Quran GossettSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
96.4%
Ty Pennington run for 4 yds to the ASU 4Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.4%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Luke EdgecombSimilar
Q1 2:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.3%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Kolbe KatsisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4597% → 96%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 9
OWN 5
0
96.5%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the ASU 5Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
96.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
96.4%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+17
96.3%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 39 yds , Isaiah Eastman returns for 17 yds to the ASU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 7FG
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:354% → 5%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
96.0%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Jayson Raines for 12 yds to the ASU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
95.9%
Isaiah Eastman run for no gain to the ASU 15Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
95.9%
Quran Gossett run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 16Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+3
96.0%
Quran Gossett run for 3 yds to the ASU 13Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
95.5%
Samuel Hunsaker 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1296% → 95%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 3 yds to the ASU 22Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
95.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 4 yds to the ASU 26Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
95.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Cameron HarpoleSimilar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
95.4%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 44 yds , Isaiah Eastman returns for no gain to the NAU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:335% → 5%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
95.4%
(12:51) Shotgun Pennington,Ty pass incomplete deep right to Stout,Joey thrown to ASU46 PENALTY ASU Holding (Crook,Jordan) 10 yards from NAU30 to NAU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
95.2%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Joey Stout for 3 yds to the NAU 43Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
95.0%
Seth Cromwell run for 3 yds to the NAU 46Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
94.9%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Kolbe KatsisSimilar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
95.2%
Ben D'Aquila punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ASU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3895% → 95%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
95.3%
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 10Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
95.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Chamon MetayerSimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+2
95.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 2 yds to the ASU 12Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 6
OWN 12
-5
95.0%
PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from ASU12 to ASU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 11
OWN 7
+2
94.8%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 58 yds , Isaiah Eastman returns for 2 yds to the NAU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:015% → 5%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
94.8%
Seth Cromwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAU 35Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+6
94.9%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Seth Cromwell for 6 yds to the NAU 29Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+4
95.1%
Seth Cromwell run for 4 yds to the NAU 33Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+33
95.0%
Ben D'Aquila punt blocked by Martell Hughes blocked by Martell HughesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 5:1995% → 96%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
94.9%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jalen MossSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
94.8%
Kyson Brown run for 4 yds to the ASU 38Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+20
94.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Malik McClain for 20 yds to the NAU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+13
94.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 13 yds Jordyn Tyson fumbled, recovered by ASU Jalen Moss for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
95.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 11 yds to the NAU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
95.0%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete deep left to Tyson,Jordyn thrown to NAU00 PENALTY NAU Pass Interference (Hurst,Michael) 15 yards from NAU38 to NAU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
94.9%
Raleek Brown run for 19 yds to the NAU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
94.8%
Sam Leavitt run for a loss of 5 yards to the NAU 9Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
94.9%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Tyson,Jordyn) 5 yards from NAU09 to NAU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+10
94.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 10 yds to the NAU 4Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
94.7%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Travis Arena for a loss of 15 yards to the NAU 19Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+36
95.6%
Jesus Gomez 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 1:295% → 6%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
94.9%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Jayson Raines for 17 yds to the NAU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
94.8%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Jayson Raines for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
50
+5
94.4%
Ty Pennington run for 5 yds to the ASU 45Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
94.1%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Jayson RainesSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-1
94.3%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Jeter Purdy for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 46 Northern Arizona Penalty, Illegal Shift (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+18
94.5%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Kolbe Katsis for 18 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
93.6%
Darvon Hubbard run for 4 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
93.7%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Jeter Purdy for no gain to the ASU 24Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-4
94.7%
Ty Pennington sacked by Keith Abney II for a loss of 4 yards to the ASU 28Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
94.5%
Samuel Hunsaker 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14MISSED FG
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0495% → 96%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
94.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 20 yds to the NAU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+57
95.6%
Jesus Gomez 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:2295% → 98%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
94.5%
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 26Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+16
94.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 16 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
94.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 6 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
94.6%
Kyson Brown run for no gain to the ASU 48Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+52
97.5%
Sam Leavitt run for 52 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:584% → 9%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
96.4%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Kolbe Katsis for 24 yds to the NAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
96.1%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Joey Stout for 9 yds to the ASU 42Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
95.9%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Jeter Purdy for 4 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
96.0%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Jayson Raines for 23 yds to the ASU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
96.3%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Jayson Raines for 5 yds to the ASU 10Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
96.2%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Jayson RainesSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+4
96.5%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Joey Stout for 4 yds to the ASU 6Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+3
96.5%
Seth Cromwell run for 3 yds to the ASU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.5%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Nason Coleman for 3 yds for a TD (Samuel Hunsaker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 2:2494% → 93%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+65
93.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 75 yds Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malik McClain) to the ASU 15Similar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-5
93.7%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass complete deep right to McClain,Malik caught at NAU26, for 64 yards to the NAU21, End Of Play PENALTY ASU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Scott,Kyle) 5 yards from ASU15 to ASU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 25
OWN 10
-5
93.6%
PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from ASU10 to ASU05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 30
OWN 5
+15
93.5%
Sam Leavitt run for 15 yds to the ASU 20Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
93.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kanye Udoh for 6 yds to the ASU 26Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
93.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+8
92.9%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 53 yds , Isaiah Eastman returns for 8 yds to the NAU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:177% → 6%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
92.7%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Kolbe Katsis for 7 yds to the NAU 26Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-5
92.3%
Ty Pennington sacked by Elijah O'Neal for a loss of 5 yards to the NAU 21Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-13
93.3%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Pennington,Ty pass complete short left to Coleman,Nason caught at NAU34, for 13 yards to the NAU34 (Fiaseu,Zyrus; Hughes,Martell) PENALTY NAU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Kramer,Ethan). NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
93.8%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Ethen CluffSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+3
94.0%
Ben D'Aquila punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ASU 30 , Raleek Brown returns for 3 yds to the ASU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:5394% → 98%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
93.7%
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+15
93.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 15 yds to the ASU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
94.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 11 yds to the NAU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
94.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Malik McClain for 7 yds to the NAU 35Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
94.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Derek EusebioSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
93.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+17
93.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 17 yds to the NAU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
94.4%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Raleek BrownSimilar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
98.2%
Sam Leavitt run for 18 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 20DOWNS
17 plays · 33 yds · 4:263% → 3%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
97.4%
Quran Gossett run for no gain to the NAU 21Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
97.5%
Quran Gossett run for 3 yds to the NAU 24Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-5
97.5%
(14:12) PENALTY NAU Delay Of Game 5 yards from NAU24 to NAU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+11
97.3%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Joey Stout for 11 yds to the NAU 30Similar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+11
97.2%
Quran Gossett run for 11 yds to the NAU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.2%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Nason ColemanSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
97.5%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Kolbe Katsis for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 1
50
+1
97.4%
Darvon Hubbard run for 1 yd to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
97.4%
Quran Gossett run for 3 yds to the ASU 46Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
97.2%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Ethen CluffSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
97.3%
Ty Pennington pass incomplete to Jayson RainesSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
97.3%
Ty Pennington pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
97.3%
Ty Pennington pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 6
50
0
99.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 6
50
0
99.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Raleek BrownSimilar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 6
50
0
99.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Raleek BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:173% → 2%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
50
+1
97.2%
Darvon Hubbard run for 1 yd to the ASU 49Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+1
97.2%
Darvon Hubbard run for 1 yd to the ASU 48Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-5
97.3%
Lathan Boone sacked by Jordan Crook for a loss of 5 yards to the NAU 47Similar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
97.6%
Ben D'Aquila punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ASU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
99.6%
Raleek Brown run for 9 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+6
99.6%
Kyson Brown run for 6 yds to the ASU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
99.5%
Kyson Brown run for 16 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Malik McClain for 2 yds to the ASU 44Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Sam Leavitt pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 24INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.0%
Lathan Boone pass incomplete to Elijah TaylorSimilar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
98.0%
Lathan Boone pass complete to Kenveon Stone for 4 yds to the NAU 37Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+10
98.0%
Lathan Boone pass complete to Hayden Daugherty for 10 yds to the NAU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.0%
Lathan Boone pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
99.6%
Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NAU 35Similar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
99.6%
Kanye Udoh run for 19 yds to the NAU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 16 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:091% → 2%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.5%
Ryan Fontaine run for 3 yds to the NAU 23Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+27
99.6%
Kenveon Stone run for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
50
+21
99.6%
Lathan Boone pass complete to Austin Okerwa for 21 yds to the ASU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.5%
Lathan Boone pass incomplete to Austin OkerwaSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+18
99.5%
Lathan Boone run for 18 yds to the ASU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.5%
Lathan Boone pass complete to Braylon Gardner for 3 yds to the ASU 8Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+7
99.5%
Kenveon Stone run for 7 yds to the ASU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
Kenveon Stone run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.7%
(00:20) Kneel down by Arizona St. at ASU23 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:14
Ty Pennington pass complete to Nason Coleman for 3 yds for a TD (Samuel Hunsaker KICK)
-4.9
TD · Q3 0:11
Sam Leavitt run for 18 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q3 12:24
Sam Leavitt run for 52 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com