BGSU
Bowling Green 17 at Louisville 40
LOU2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
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BGSU · Drive 1PUNT · 6 plays · 10 yds
Q1 15:00
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
92.6%
0.0
Q1 14:52
Chris McMillian run for 11 yds to the BGSU 36 for a 1ST down
91.5%
-1.1
Q1 14:18
Kaderris Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 35
91.1%
-0.4
Q1 13:45
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jyrin Johnson
91.2%
+0.1
Q1 13:37
Allen Middleton run for no gain to the BGSU 35
91.2%
0.0
Q1 13:02
John Henderson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 23
91.2%
0.0
LOU · Drive 2PUNT · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q1 12:57
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 9 yds to the LOU 32
92.6%
+1.4
Q1 12:26
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Kris Hughes
92.6%
0.0
Q1 12:20
Keyjuan Brown run for no gain to the LOU 32
92.6%
0.0
Q1 11:42
Carter Schwartz punt for 61 yds
92.3%
-0.3
BGSU · Drive 3PUNT · 6 plays · 26 yds
Q1 11:34
Kaderris Roberts run for 13 yds to the BGSU 20 for a 1ST down
91.0%
-1.3
Q1 10:59
Drew Pyne pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 10 yds to the BGSU 30 for a 1ST down
91.0%
0.0
Q1 10:21
Allen Middleton run for 4 yds to the BGSU 34
91.0%
0.0
Q1 9:40
Lucian Anderson III run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 33
91.0%
0.0
Q1 9:00
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jyrin Johnson
90.8%
-0.2
Q1 8:51
John Henderson punt for 29 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the LOU 38 Caullin Lacy fumbled, recovered by BGSU Victor Vazquez
90.8%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 4FG · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q1 8:46
Chris McMillian run for 3 yds to the LOU 35
89.9%
-0.9
Q1 8:09
Chris McMillian run for 3 yds to the LOU 32
89.9%
0.0
Q1 7:26
Chris McMillian run for 2 yds to the LOU 30
90.0%
+0.2
Q1 6:44
Jackson Kleather 49 yd FG GOOD
89.0%
-1.1
LOU · Drive 5TD · 11 plays · 60 yds
Q1 6:35
Zach Long kickoff for 65 yds , Caullin Lacy return for 40 yds to the LOU 40
89.5%
+0.5
Q1 6:27
Isaac Brown run for 18 yds to the BGSU 42 for a 1ST down
89.7%
+0.3
Q1 5:53
(05:54) Shotgun Moss,Miller pass incomplete short right to Bell,Chris thrown to BGF39 PENALTY LOU Pass Interference (Bell,Chris) 15 yards from BGF42 to LOU43. NO PLAY.
89.7%
0.0
Q1 5:44
Miller Moss pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for 18 yds to the BGSU 39
88.8%
-0.9
Q1 5:05
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the BGSU 31 for a 1ST down
89.7%
+0.9
Q1 4:27
(04:34) Shotgun Moss,Miller pass complete short right to Lacy,Caullin caught at BGF13, for 29 yards to the BGF02 (Lorfils,Darius), out of bounds PENALTY LOU Holding offsetting BGF Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAY.
89.6%
-0.1
Q1 4:02
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 14 yds to the BGSU 17 for a 1ST down
89.6%
0.0
Q1 3:33
Keyjuan Brown run for 7 yds to the BGSU 10
89.5%
-0.1
Q1 2:54
(02:56) Shotgun Brown,Keyjuan rush left for 1 yard loss to the BGF11 (Marshall,Caden) PENALTY BGF Personal Foul (Kelly,Dierre) 5 yards from BGF10 to BGF05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
89.5%
0.0
Q1 2:41
Keyjuan Brown run for 3 yds to the BGSU 2
89.5%
0.0
Q1 2:03
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
93.4%
+0.5
BGSU · Drive 6INT · 6 plays · 36 yds
Q1 2:03
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
92.9%
+3.4
Q1 1:53
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 21 yds to the BGSU 46 for a 1ST down
91.8%
-1.6
Q1 1:23
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Finn Hogan
91.2%
-0.6
Q1 1:16
Cameron Pettaway run for 2 yds to the BGSU 48
91.2%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Drew Pyne run for 13 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST down
90.9%
-0.3
Q2 14:47
Drew Pyne pass intercepted Antonio Watts return for no gain to the LOU 21
90.6%
-0.3
LOU · Drive 7TD · 9 plays · 80 yds
Q2 14:08
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the LOU 34 for a 1ST down
93.2%
+2.5
Q2 13:43
(14:07) Shotgun Moss,Miller pass complete short right to Skinner,Jaleel caught at LOU37, for 16 yards to the LOU50 (Lorfils,Darius) PENALTY LOU Illegal Shift (Collins,Dacari) 5 yards from LOU34 to LOU29. NO PLAY.
93.2%
0.0
Q2 12:44
Miller Moss pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 4 yds to the LOU 33
93.2%
0.0
Q2 12:42
Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LOU 30
93.2%
0.0
Q2 12:00
Miller Moss pass complete to Dacari Collins for 36 yds to the BGSU 34 for a 1ST down
93.2%
0.0
Q2 11:39
Miller Moss pass complete to Dacari Collins for 32 yds to the BGSU 2 for a 1ST down
93.5%
+0.4
Q2 11:22
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin Lacy
93.5%
0.0
Q2 11:04
Bowling Green Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) to the LOU 0
93.5%
0.0
Q2 10:50
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
97.4%
+3.8
BGSU · Drive 8PUNT RETURN TD · 5 plays · -4 yds
Q2 10:27
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
97.4%
+0.1
Q2 10:20
Chris McMillian run for no gain to the BGSU 25
96.7%
-0.7
Q2 9:36
Bowling Green Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the BGSU 17
96.7%
0.0
Q2 9:05
Drew Pyne pass complete to Kaderris Roberts for 4 yds to the BGSU 21
96.7%
0.0
Q2 8:13
John Henderson punt for 54 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 75 yds for a TD
98.9%
+2.3
BGSU · Drive 9PUNT · 8 plays · 17 yds
Q2 8:13
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.3%
+0.3
Q2 8:07
Cameron Pettaway run for 7 yds to the BGSU 32
98.9%
-0.4
Q2 7:30
Cameron Pettaway run for 1 yd to the BGSU 33
98.9%
0.0
Q2 6:47
Mar'Kel Porter run for 3 yds to the BGSU 36 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q2 6:08
Cameron Pettaway run for 6 yds to the BGSU 42
98.8%
-0.1
Q2 5:33
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Cameron Pettaway
98.8%
0.0
Q2 5:30
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jyrin Johnson
98.8%
0.0
Q2 5:22
John Henderson punt for 58 yds for a touchback
98.8%
0.0
LOU · Drive 10PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q2 5:17
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris Bell
99.3%
+0.5
Q2 5:09
Miller Moss sacked by Gideon Lampron for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 10
99.3%
0.0
Q2 4:24
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 14 yds to the LOU 24
99.3%
0.0
Q2 3:33
Carter Schwartz punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BGSU 36
99.3%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 11INT · 12 plays · 49 yds
Q2 3:27
Chris McMillian run for 6 yds to the BGSU 42
98.9%
-0.4
Q2 2:44
Lucian Anderson III run for 5 yds to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q2 2:09
Chris McMillian run for 10 yds to the LOU 43 for a 1ST down
98.8%
0.0
Q2 1:52
Chris McMillian run for no gain to the LOU 43
98.8%
-0.1
Q2 1:07
Drew Pyne pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 8 yds to the LOU 35
98.8%
0.0
Q2 0:47
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jacob Harris for 5 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST down
98.7%
-0.1
Q2 0:47
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 00:47
98.8%
+0.1
Q2 0:42
Bowling Green Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass (Yards) to the LOU 30
98.8%
0.0
Q2 0:32
Drew Pyne run for 4 yds to the LOU 26
98.8%
0.0
Q2 0:32
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 00:32
98.8%
0.0
Q2 0:27
Drew Pyne pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 11 yds to the LOU 15 for a 1ST down
98.8%
-0.1
Q2 0:22
Drew Pyne pass intercepted D'Angelo Hutchinson return for 5 yds to the LOU 17
98.8%
0.0
LOU · Drive 12END OF HALF · 5 plays · 30 yds
Q2 0:12
Miller Moss pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for 17 yds to the LOU 34 for a 1ST down
99.4%
+0.7
Q2 0:12
Timeout Louisville, clock 00:12
99.5%
0.0
Q2 0:04
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 20 yds to the BGSU 46 for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q2 0:04
Timeout Louisville, clock 00:04
99.5%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Miller Moss sacked by Caden Marshall for a loss of 7 yards to the LOU 47
99.5%
0.0
LOU · Drive 13FG · 10 plays · 68 yds
Q3 15:00
Zach Long kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.8%
-0.7
Q3 14:51
Miller Moss pass complete to Dacari Collins for 9 yds to the LOU 34
99.3%
+0.5
Q3 14:17
Keyjuan Brown run for no gain to the LOU 34
99.4%
+0.1
Q3 13:37
Keyjuan Brown run for 18 yds to the BGSU 48 for a 1ST down
99.4%
0.0
Q3 12:54
Keyjuan Brown run for 34 yds to the BGSU 14 for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q3 12:17
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin Lacy
99.5%
+0.1
Q3 12:09
Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds to the BGSU 10
99.5%
0.0
Q3 11:34
(11:37) Shotgun Moss,Miller pass complete short middle to Collins,Dacari caught at BGF01, for 9 yards to the BGF01 (Washington,Keyon) PENALTY LOU Holding (Church,Jordan) 10 yards from BGF10 to BGF20. NO PLAY.
99.5%
0.0
Q3 11:14
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the BGSU 7
99.5%
0.0
Q3 10:34
Cooper Ranvier 24 yd FG GOOD
99.6%
+0.1
BGSU · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q3 10:34
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.6%
0.0
Q3 10:27
Allen Middleton run for 1 yd to the BGSU 26
99.3%
-0.3
Q3 9:48
Drew Pyne pass complete to Kaderris Roberts for 2 yds to the BGSU 28
99.3%
0.0
Q3 9:07
Lucian Anderson III run for no gain to the BGSU 28
99.3%
0.0
Q3 8:28
John Henderson punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 45
99.3%
0.0
LOU · Drive 15FG · 5 plays · 33 yds
Q3 8:09
Miller Moss pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 33 yds to the BGSU 22 for a 1ST down
99.6%
+0.3
Q3 7:35
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Caullin Lacy
99.6%
0.0
Q3 7:31
Miller Moss pass incomplete
99.6%
0.0
Q3 7:26
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Antonio Meeks
99.6%
0.0
Q3 7:21
Cooper Ranvier 40 yd FG GOOD
99.8%
+0.2
BGSU · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q3 7:21
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.8%
0.0
Q3 7:14
Chris McMillian run for no gain to the BGSU 25
99.6%
-0.2
Q3 6:49
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jyrin Johnson
99.6%
0.0
Q3 6:44
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jacob Harris
99.7%
0.0
Q3 6:34
John Henderson punt for 40 yds
99.7%
0.0
LOU · Drive 17FG · 8 plays · 26 yds
Q3 6:27
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the LOU 43
99.9%
+0.1
Q3 5:52
Keyjuan Brown run for 8 yds to the BGSU 49 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 5:12
Keyjuan Brown run for 5 yds to the BGSU 44
99.9%
0.0
Q3 4:29
Miller Moss pass complete to Dacari Collins for 7 yds to the BGSU 37 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 3:57
Miller Moss pass incomplete to TreyShun Hurry
99.9%
0.0
Q3 3:51
Miller Moss sacked by Keyon Washington for a loss of 8 yards to the BGSU 45
99.9%
0.0
Q3 3:03
Miller Moss pass complete to Kris Hughes for 6 yds to the BGSU 39
99.9%
0.0
Q3 2:24
Nick Keller 57 yd FG GOOD
99.9%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 18PUNT · 6 plays · 6 yds
Q3 2:24
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
0.0
Q3 2:13
Kaderris Roberts run for 7 yds to the BGSU 32
99.8%
-0.1
Q3 1:35
Kaderris Roberts run for 1 yd to the BGSU 33
99.8%
0.0
Q3 0:53
PENALTY BGF False Start (Cleaver,Blane) 5 yards from BGF33 to BGF28. NO PLAY.
99.8%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jacob Harris for 3 yds to the BGSU 31
99.8%
0.0
Q4 14:50
John Henderson punt for 35 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 31 yds to the BGSU 35
99.8%
0.0
LOU · Drive 19FG · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q4 14:43
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the BGSU 27
99.9%
+0.1
Q4 14:08
Shaun Boykins Jr. run for no gain to the BGSU 27
99.9%
0.0
Q4 13:31
Miller Moss pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 3 yds to the BGSU 30
99.9%
0.0
Q4 12:53
Cooper Ranvier 48 yd FG GOOD
99.9%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 20TD · 3 plays · 75 yds
Q4 12:53
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
0.0
Q4 12:49
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Blane Cleaver
99.8%
-0.1
Q4 12:37
Lucian Anderson III run for 75 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
99.8%
-0.1
LOU · Drive 21TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q4 12:30
Zach Long kickoff for 65 yds , Caullin Lacy return for 25 yds to the LOU 25
99.8%
0.0
Q4 12:19
Jamarice Wilder run for 7 yds to the LOU 32
99.9%
+0.1
Q4 11:38
Jamarice Wilder run for no gain to the LOU 32
99.9%
0.0
Q4 10:54
Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 9 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 10:21
Jamarice Wilder run for 3 yds to the LOU 44
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:44
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 25 yds to the BGSU 31 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 8:59
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds to the BGSU 22
99.9%
0.0
Q4 8:14
Braxton Jennings run for 8 yds to the BGSU 14 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 7:33
Braxton Jennings run for 13 yds to the BGSU 1 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 7:15
PENALTY LOU False Start (Pounders,Mak) 5 yards from BGF01 to BGF06. NO PLAY.
99.9%
0.0
Q4 7:00
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Chris Bell
99.9%
0.0
Q4 6:54
(06:54) Shotgun Moss,Miller pass incomplete short right to Bell,Chris thrown to BGF00 broken up by Mitchell,Jabari PENALTY BGF Holding (Johnson,JoJo) 3 yards from BGF06 to BGF03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
99.9%
0.0
Q4 6:50
Braxton Jennings run for 3 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
99.9%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 22TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q4 6:43
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds , Cameron Pettaway return for 25 yds to the BGSU 25
99.9%
0.0
Q4 6:22
Drew Pyne pass complete to Eli Jacon-Duffy for 22 yds to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST down
99.8%
-0.1
Q4 5:47
Nakai Amachree run for 11 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 5:03
Nakai Amachree run for 4 yds to the LOU 38
99.8%
0.0
Q4 4:16
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jacob Harris for 38 yds for a TD
99.8%
-0.1
LOU · Drive 23END OF GAME · 10 plays · 17 yds
Q4 4:16
Zach Long kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.8%
0.0
Q4 4:06
Shaun Boykins Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 22
99.9%
+0.1
Q4 3:33
(03:37) Shotgun Allen,Brady pass complete short left to Golden,Bobby caught at LOU29, for 9 yards to the LOU31 (Washington,Keyon), out of bounds PENALTY LOU Holding (Sylvester,Trevonte) 10 yards from LOU22 to LOU12. NO PLAY.
99.9%
0.0
Q4 3:05
Jamarice Wilder run for 5 yds to the LOU 17
99.9%
0.0
Q4 2:26
(02:29) Shotgun Allen,Brady pass incomplete deep left to McWilliams Jr.,Terrence thrown to LOU38 QB hurried by Branch-Haynes,Evan PENALTY BGF Roughing The Passer (Branch-Haynes,Evan) 15 yards from LOU17 to LOU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
99.9%
0.0
Q4 2:18
Braxton Jennings run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 30
99.9%
0.0
Q4 1:52
Braxton Jennings run for 18 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 1:18
Deuce Adams run for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 42 Deuce Adams fumbled, recovered by LOU Deuce Adams
99.9%
0.0
Q4 0:49
Deuce Adams pass complete to Jaedon King for 3 yds to the LOU 39
99.9%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Braxton Jennings run for 3 yds to the LOU 42
99.9%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:50
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
+3.8
KEY PLAY · Q1 2:03
Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+3.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 14:08
Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the LOU 34 for a 1ST down
+2.5