2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreBCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Khamani Robinson run for 1 yd to the BCU 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:55: CharMar Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — MIA win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:08: Juan Dominguez 32 yd FG GOOD — BCU win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:08: Timeout Miami, clock 03:08 — MIA win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:38: Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — MIA win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:39: Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — MIA win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 11:14BCU 4th & 8 at MIA 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q1 7:07BCU 4th & 9 at BCU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 14:03BCU 4th & 14 at BCU 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 3:08BCU 4th & 6 at MIA 15, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call0.6%83% to makePunt0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 2:45MIA 4th & 4 at BCU 32, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.151% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 2:45MIA 4th & 4 at BCU 32, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.151% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 0:49BCU 4th & 6 at BCU 36, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:07BCU 4th & 6 at MIA 6, down 39Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.131% to convertField goal0.0%91% to makePunt-0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:56MIA 4th & 10 at BCU 13, up 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%85% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 9:16MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:34MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:55MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:38MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:39MIA Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:52MIA Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCUDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 3:390% → 0%
MIADrive 2TD6 plays · 90 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Keelan Marion for 7 yds to the MIA 17Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+12
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 12 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 14 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 40 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 2:090% → 1%
MIADrive 4TD10 plays · 74 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 7 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-4
99.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Alex Bauman for 6 yds to the BCU 31 Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malachi Toney) to the BCU 41Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+20
99.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Tony Johnson for 20 yds to the BCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 3:191% → 1%
MIADrive 6TD8 plays · 68 yds · 3:5899% → 100%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
99.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 11 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
99.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 13 yds to the BCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+18
99.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ray Ray Joseph for 18 yds to the BCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
99.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 11 yds to the BCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 7FG14 plays · 60 yds · 6:361% → 1%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Tarell Short Jr. for 4 yds to the BCU 29Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
99.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Tarell Short Jr. for 6 yds to the BCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
99.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Josh Evans for 21 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+10
99.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Ross for 10 yds to the MIA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+9
99.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Ross for 9 yds to the MIA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Ross for 2 yds to the MIA 21Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+4
99.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Ali Scott Jr. for 4 yds to the MIA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD14 plays · 71 yds · 2:1399% → 100%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
99.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 8 yds to the MIA 37Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+11
99.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 11 yds to the BCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
99.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 12 yds to the BCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Elija Lofton for 3 yds to the BCU 5Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 9END OF HALF3 plays · 14 yds · 0:321% → 1%
MIADrive 10TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to CharMar Brown for 4 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+24
99.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 24 yds to the BCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+6
99.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Alex Bauman for 6 yds to the BCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
99.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Luka Gilbert for 20 yds to the BCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 11FUMBLE12 plays · 41 yds · 5:270% → 0%
Q3 8:51
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
99.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Lorenzo Jenkins for 13 yds to the BCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.8%
Miami Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (David Blay Jr.) to the MIA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+10
99.6%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ethan O'Connor) to the MIA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-8
99.6%
Timmy McClain sacked by Mohamed Toure for a loss of 8 yards to the MIA 34 Timmy McClain fumbled, recovered by MIA Chase Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-8
99.6%
Timmy McClain sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the MIA 34 Timmy McClain fumbled, recovered by MIA Chase Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12DOWNS9 plays · 34 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
99.9%
Bethune-Cookman Penalty, Targeting (Adrian Hall Jr.) to the BCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Joshua Moore for 7 yds to the BCU 42Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+4
99.9%
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey run for 4 yds to the BCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+7
99.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Ray Ray Joseph for 7 yds to the BCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q3 0:49
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+9
99.9%
Max Tulen punt for 42 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for 9 yds to the MIA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD6 plays · 69 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
BCUDrive 15INT12 plays · 69 yds · 5:190% → 0%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Khamani Robinson for 13 yds to the BCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16FG14 plays · 67 yds · 6:02100% → 100%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
100.0%
Emory Williams pass complete to Daylyn Upshaw for 7 yds to the MIA 27Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+13
100.0%
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey run for 13 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
100.0%
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey run for 13 yds to the BCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
100.0%
Emory Williams pass complete to Daylyn Upshaw for 4 yds to the BCU 42Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+15
100.0%
Emory Williams pass complete to Daylyn Upshaw for 15 yds to the BCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
100.0%
Emory Williams sacked by Keyon Clark for 0 yards to the BCU 27 Emory Williams fumbled, recovered by MIA Seuseu Alofaituli , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+14
100.0%
Emory Williams pass complete to Brock Schott for 14 yds to the BCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-1
100.0%
Emory Williams sacked by Stephen Sparrow for a loss of 1 yard to the BCU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 17END OF GAME4 plays · 4 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:38
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
+0.7
FG · Q2 3:08
Juan Dominguez 32 yd FG GOOD
-0.5
FG · Q2 3:08
Timeout Miami, clock 03:08
+0.5