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UNC

North Carolina 9 at UCF 34

UCF
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:48 · Tom Maginness punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Home team on offense+14.7Pregame prior+8.7Score differential+5.1Garbage-time factor+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:03: Noe Ruelas 41 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +5.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:23: Rece Verhoff 40 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +4.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:13: Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 17 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — UCF win probability +8.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:51: Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — UCF win probability +4.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:06: Max Johnson pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNC win probability +3.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:39UCF 4th & 1 at UNC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:51UCF 4th & 5 at UNC 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:47UNC 4th & 18 at UNC 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:03UCF 4th & 1 at UNC 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−1.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:03UCF 4th & 14 at UNC 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:11UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 17, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:23UNC 4th & 9 at UCF 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:48UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:45UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 42, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:05UNC 4th & 5 at UCF 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:08UCF 4th & 18 at UCF 17, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:03UNC 4th & 2 at midfield, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:20UNC 4th & 15 at UCF 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:34UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 43, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.6%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:13UCF 4th & 4 at UNC 24, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:13UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 8:23UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:13UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:51UCF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:06UNC Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:54UCF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2669% → 71%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.7%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
68.7%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Dylan WadeSimilar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
68.6%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
50
+4
68.7%
Jacurri Brown run for 4 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-5
68.7%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Wade,Dylan) 5 yards from UNC46 to UCF49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+3
68.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+7
68.6%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 7 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
68.5%
Tayven Jackson run for 2 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
68.7%
Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 41Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+5
68.5%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 5 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+15
68.5%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 15 yds to the UNC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
68.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the UNC 16Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+3
68.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UNC 13Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
70.5%
Tayven Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4930% → 30%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
70.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Demon June for 2 yds to the UNC 16Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+2
70.2%
Demon June run for 2 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+5
70.6%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass intercepted by Jackson,Antione at UNC40 Jackson,Antione return 40 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:51 PENALTY UCF Offside (Walker,John) 5 yards from UNC18 to UNC23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+10
70.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 10 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
70.1%
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Nyjalik Kelly return for 4 yds to the UNC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2171% → 71%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
71.2%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Dylan WadeSimilar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
71.2%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UNC 21Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+3
71.2%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
71.4%
Noe Ruelas 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5930% → 28%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.5%
Demon June run for 2 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
70.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Owens for 5 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-15
71.2%
Gio Lopez sacked by Sincere Edwards for a loss of 15 yards to the UNC 17Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
72.0%
Tom Maginness punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Antione Jackson at the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5FG
16 plays · 42 yds · 7:4072% → 79%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.0%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
71.7%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+3
72.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
72.7%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 13 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
73.0%
Tayven Jackson run for no gain to the UNC 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
73.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
72.8%
Tayven Jackson run for 3 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
72.5%
Tayven Jackson run for 1 yd to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
73.7%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 7 yds to the UNC 25Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+6
73.8%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 6 yds to the UNC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
74.0%
Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 21Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-1
74.0%
Duane Thomas Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 22Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 13
OPP 22
-5
73.3%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Miller,Carter) 5 yards from UNC22 to UNC27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 18
OPP 27
+9
73.5%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 9 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 9
OPP 18
-5
73.4%
(10:30) Ruelas,Noe field goal attempt from 36 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: Venneri,Anthony, LS: Riggs,Dalton), clock 10:09 PENALTY UCF Illegal Formation 5 yards from UNC18 to UNC23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+41
79.3%
Noe Ruelas 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6INT
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:2722% → 23%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.7%
Gio Lopez run for 6 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
77.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for 11 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
77.7%
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
77.6%
Benjamin Hall run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 2
50
+3
77.8%
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
77.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 24 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
77.0%
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
77.1%
Demon June run for 5 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
78.1%
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
77.4%
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Braeden Marshall return for 2 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
77.4%
North Carolina Penalty, (-2 Yards) to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
77.4%
North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Smith Vilbert) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0681% → 82%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
81.1%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 2 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+6
81.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+5
81.1%
Tayven Jackson run for 5 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+5
82.3%
Anthony Venneri punt for 39 yds , Javarius Green returns for 5 yds to the UNC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 1:3719% → 24%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
80.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Chris Culliver for 15 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
81.0%
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris CulliverSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
81.1%
Demon June run for 13 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
79.4%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Blaske,Austin) 5 yards from UCF23 to UCF28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 15
OPP 28
-3
80.8%
Gio Lopez sacked by Lewis Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+4
79.6%
Demon June run for 4 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+5
80.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Demon June for 5 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
76.1%
Rece Verhoff 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 0:5977% → 87%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
77.0%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-5
76.6%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Nixon,Jaden rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCF24 (Vilbert,Smith) PENALTY UCF Illegal Formation 5 yards from UCF17 to UCF12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+10
76.7%
North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Holding (Andrew Simpson) to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
77.2%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 11 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
78.2%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Tayven pass incomplete short right to Thomas Jr.,Duane thrown to UNC39 PENALTY UNC Roughing The Passer (Abou Jaoude,Melkart) 15 yards from UCF43 to UNC42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
78.8%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 10 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
78.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 15 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
87.1%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 17 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
85.3%
(00:13) Kneel down by North Carolina at UNC23 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0414% → 12%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.2%
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
86.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for 3 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
86.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caleb Hood for 1 yd to the UNC 32Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
87.9%
Tom Maginness punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:4788% → 95%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
87.8%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
89.1%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 8 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+25
89.5%
Tayven Jackson run for 25 yds to the UNC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+18
91.1%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 18 yds to the UNC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
91.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the UNC 1Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
22 plays · 80 yds · 8:405% → 7%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
95.3%
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
95.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 10 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
95.4%
Demon June run for 1 yd to the UNC 34Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
95.6%
Demon June run for 3 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+5
95.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Davion Gause for 5 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+1
96.0%
Gio Lopez run for 1 yd to the UNC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
96.2%
Demon June run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 3
50
+2
96.2%
Demon June run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
96.7%
Benjamin Hall run for 2 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
97.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Davion GauseSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+5
97.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Shanard Clower for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+6
97.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
96.9%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jake JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
96.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+11
97.2%
Demon June run for 11 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
97.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Davion Gause for 9 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+1
97.2%
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5196% → 96%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.7%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ BlackSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.8%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 8 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 0:16
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
96.0%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Myles MontgomerySimilar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
95.6%
Anthony Venneri punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:446% → 4%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.5%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Demon JuneSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
94.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jordan Owens for 3 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
94.6%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Max pass incomplete short right to Shipp,Jordan thrown to UCF36 PENALTY UCF Offside 5 yards from UNC45 to UNC50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 2
50
0
94.6%
Davion Gause run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 2
50
+11
95.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 11 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
95.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jake JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
95.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Demon June for 5 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-10
95.3%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Max pass incomplete short left thrown to UCF29 PENALTY UNC Holding (Blaske,Austin) 10 yards from UCF34 to UCF44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 15
OPP 44
0
95.9%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
96.0%
Tom Maginness punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Antione Jackson at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
21 plays · 93 yds · 10:2197% → 100%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
97.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+4
97.1%
Duane Thomas Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+2
97.2%
Tayven Jackson run for 2 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
97.7%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-10
97.9%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+14
97.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
98.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-1
98.2%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+7
98.3%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 7 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+14
99.3%
Jacurri Brown run for 14 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.4%
Jacurri Brown run for 4 yds to the UNC 39Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
99.4%
Jacurri Brown run for 9 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.5%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.5%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Waden Charles for 6 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
99.6%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Waden CharlesSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+14
99.8%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 14 yds to the UNC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
Tayven Jackson run for 5 yds to the UNC 5Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Jaden Nixon run for 5 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.7%
North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Nathan Leacock for no gain to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
99.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Caleb Hood for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 29Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Shanard ClowerSimilar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Shanard ClowerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
99.9%
(00:13) Kneel down by UCF at UNC31 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:13
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 17 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+8.3
FG · Q2 10:03
Noe Ruelas 41 yd FG GOOD
+5.9
FG · Q2 1:23
Rece Verhoff 40 yd FG GOOD
-4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com