UNC
North Carolina 9 at UCF 34
UCF2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey play
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UCF · Drive 1TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Rece Verhoff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
69.3%
0.0
Q1 14:49
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 5 yds to the UCF 30
71.1%
+1.8
Q1 14:27
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Dylan Wade
71.0%
-0.1
Q1 14:17
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
71.0%
0.0
Q1 13:38
Jacurri Brown run for 4 yds to the UNC 46
71.9%
+0.9
Q1 13:14
PENALTY UCF False Start (Wade,Dylan) 5 yards from UNC46 to UCF49. NO PLAY.
72.7%
+0.8
Q1 12:54
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UNC 48
71.9%
-0.8
Q1 12:16
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 7 yds to the UNC 41
72.5%
+0.6
Q1 11:39
Tayven Jackson run for 2 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST down
72.4%
0.0
Q1 11:10
Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 41
73.0%
+0.5
Q1 10:38
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 5 yds to the UNC 36
73.0%
0.0
Q1 9:53
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 15 yds to the UNC 21 for a 1ST down
72.8%
-0.2
Q1 9:18
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the UNC 16
73.1%
+0.3
Q1 8:55
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UNC 13
72.7%
-0.3
Q1 8:23
Tayven Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
82.6%
+9.8
UNC · Drive 2INT · 6 plays · 15 yds
Q1 8:19
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 55 yds , Davion Gause return for 8 yds to the UNC 18
82.0%
-0.5
Q1 8:06
Gio Lopez pass complete to Demon June for 2 yds to the UNC 16
79.4%
-2.7
Q1 7:33
Demon June run for 2 yds to the UNC 18
79.4%
0.0
Q1 6:51
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass intercepted by Jackson,Antione at UNC40 Jackson,Antione return 40 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:51 PENALTY UCF Offside (Walker,John) 5 yards from UNC18 to UNC23. NO PLAY.
79.4%
0.0
Q1 6:43
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 10 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST down
79.4%
0.0
Q1 6:17
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Nyjalik Kelly return for 4 yds to the UNC 23
79.4%
+0.1
UCF · Drive 3FG · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q1 6:12
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Dylan Wade
82.8%
+3.4
Q1 6:04
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UNC 21
82.8%
0.0
Q1 5:22
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the UNC 18
82.7%
-0.1
Q1 4:51
Noe Ruelas 36 yd FG GOOD
85.9%
+3.3
UNC · Drive 4PUNT · 5 plays · -8 yds
Q1 4:51
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
85.8%
-0.1
Q1 4:46
Demon June run for 2 yds to the UNC 27
82.1%
-3.7
Q1 4:04
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Owens for 5 yds to the UNC 32
82.1%
0.0
Q1 3:36
Gio Lopez sacked by Sincere Edwards for a loss of 15 yards to the UNC 17
82.1%
0.0
Q1 2:47
Tom Maginness punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Antione Jackson at the UCF 35
82.1%
0.0
UCF · Drive 5FG · 16 plays · 42 yds
Q1 2:43
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus Burke
85.8%
+3.7
Q1 2:28
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 7 yds to the UCF 42
85.7%
0.0
Q1 1:52
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST down
86.0%
+0.3
Q1 1:15
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 13 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST down
86.1%
+0.1
Q1 0:38
Tayven Jackson run for no gain to the UNC 42
86.2%
+0.1
Q1 0:00
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the UNC 36
86.2%
0.0
Q2 14:51
Tayven Jackson run for 3 yds to the UNC 33
86.1%
-0.1
Q2 14:03
Tayven Jackson run for 1 yd to the UNC 32 for a 1ST down
85.9%
-0.2
Q2 13:23
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 7 yds to the UNC 25
86.2%
+0.3
Q2 13:01
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 6 yds to the UNC 19 for a 1ST down
86.2%
0.0
Q2 12:30
Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 21
86.2%
0.0
Q2 11:52
Duane Thomas Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 22
86.1%
0.0
Q2 11:25
PENALTY UCF False Start (Miller,Carter) 5 yards from UNC22 to UNC27. NO PLAY.
86.0%
-0.1
Q2 10:47
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 9 yds to the UNC 18
85.9%
-0.1
Q2 10:09
(10:30) Ruelas,Noe field goal attempt from 36 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: Venneri,Anthony, LS: Riggs,Dalton), clock 10:09 PENALTY UCF Illegal Formation 5 yards from UNC18 to UNC23. NO PLAY.
85.8%
-0.2
Q2 10:03
Noe Ruelas 41 yd FG GOOD
91.7%
+5.9
UNC · Drive 6INT · 13 plays · 63 yds
Q2 10:02
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
91.8%
+0.1
Q2 9:54
Gio Lopez run for 6 yds to the UNC 31
89.1%
-2.6
Q2 9:12
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for 11 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST down
89.1%
0.0
Q2 8:43
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UNC 45
89.1%
0.0
Q2 8:07
Benjamin Hall run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
89.3%
+0.2
Q2 7:40
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down
89.1%
-0.2
Q2 7:13
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 24 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down
89.1%
0.0
Q2 6:58
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UCF 20
88.5%
-0.7
Q2 6:35
Demon June run for 5 yds to the UCF 15
88.5%
0.0
Q2 5:56
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST down
88.5%
0.0
Q2 5:27
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Braeden Marshall return for 2 yds to the UCF 8
88.5%
0.0
Q2 5:27
North Carolina Penalty, (-2 Yards) to the UCF 8
88.5%
0.0
Q2 5:27
North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Smith Vilbert) declined
88.5%
0.0
UCF · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q2 5:17
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 2 yds to the UCF 6
91.5%
+3.1
Q2 4:42
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the UCF 12
91.5%
0.0
Q2 4:00
Tayven Jackson run for 5 yds to the UCF 17
91.5%
0.0
Q2 3:21
Timeout North Carolina, clock 03:21
92.0%
+0.5
Q2 3:11
Anthony Venneri punt for 39 yds , Javarius Green returns for 5 yds to the UNC 49
92.0%
0.0
UNC · Drive 8FG · 10 plays · 29 yds
Q2 3:00
Gio Lopez pass complete to Chris Culliver for 15 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down
88.9%
-3.1
Q2 2:25
Gio Lopez pass incomplete to Chris Culliver
88.4%
-0.5
Q2 2:18
Demon June run for 13 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down
88.4%
0.0
Q2 2:00
PENALTY UNC False Start (Blaske,Austin) 5 yards from UCF23 to UCF28. NO PLAY.
88.1%
-0.2
Q2 1:44
Gio Lopez sacked by Lewis Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 31
88.1%
0.0
Q2 1:39
Timeout UCF, clock 01:39
87.5%
-0.7
Q2 1:34
Timeout UCF, clock 01:34
87.3%
-0.1
Q2 1:32
Demon June run for 4 yds to the UCF 27
87.3%
0.0
Q2 1:28
Gio Lopez pass complete to Demon June for 5 yds to the UCF 22
87.3%
0.0
Q2 1:23
Rece Verhoff 40 yd FG GOOD
84.7%
-2.6
UCF · Drive 9TD · 9 plays · 83 yds
Q2 1:17
Rece Verhoff kickoff for 65 yds , Jaden Nixon return for 17 yds to the UCF 17
85.3%
+0.5
Q2 1:12
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus Burke
88.7%
+3.5
Q2 1:06
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Nixon,Jaden rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCF24 (Vilbert,Smith) PENALTY UCF Illegal Formation 5 yards from UCF17 to UCF12. NO PLAY.
88.7%
0.0
Q2 0:57
North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Holding (Andrew Simpson) to the UCF 32 for a 1ST down
88.7%
0.0
Q2 0:48
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 11 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST down
88.7%
0.0
Q2 0:37
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Tayven pass incomplete short right to Thomas Jr.,Duane thrown to UNC39 PENALTY UNC Roughing The Passer (Abou Jaoude,Melkart) 15 yards from UCF43 to UNC42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
88.8%
+0.1
Q2 0:30
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 10 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST down
88.9%
+0.1
Q2 0:18
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 15 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST down
88.7%
-0.3
Q2 0:13
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 17 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
94.2%
+5.6
UNC · Drive 10END OF HALF · 2 plays · -2 yds
Q2 0:13
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
94.3%
0.0
Q2 0:00
(00:13) Kneel down by North Carolina at UNC23 for loss of 2 yards.
92.6%
-1.6
UNC · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q3 15:00
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
93.9%
+1.3
Q3 14:52
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the UNC 28
92.8%
-1.1
Q3 14:02
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for 3 yds to the UNC 31
92.8%
0.0
Q3 13:29
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caleb Hood for 1 yd to the UNC 32
92.7%
-0.1
Q3 12:48
Tom Maginness punt for 33 yds
92.8%
+0.1
UCF · Drive 12TD · 6 plays · 64 yds
Q3 12:38
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the UCF 43
94.7%
+1.9
Q3 12:05
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 8 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST down
94.7%
+0.1
Q3 11:28
Tayven Jackson run for 25 yds to the UNC 24 for a 1ST down
94.7%
0.0
Q3 10:48
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 18 yds to the UNC 6 for a 1ST down
95.2%
+0.5
Q3 10:14
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the UNC 1
95.2%
0.0
Q3 9:51
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
97.4%
+2.2
UNC · Drive 13TD · 22 plays · 80 yds
Q3 9:46
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 64 yds , Shanard Clower return for 19 yds to the UNC 20
97.4%
0.0
Q3 9:46
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the UNC 23
97.7%
+0.4
Q3 9:20
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 10 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST down
97.7%
0.0
Q3 8:47
Demon June run for 1 yd to the UNC 34
97.7%
0.0
Q3 8:09
Demon June run for 3 yds to the UNC 37
97.7%
0.0
Q3 7:25
Gio Lopez pass complete to Davion Gause for 5 yds to the UNC 42
97.7%
0.0
Q3 6:51
Timeout North Carolina, clock 06:51
97.7%
0.0
Q3 6:45
Gio Lopez run for 1 yd to the UNC 43 for a 1ST down
97.7%
0.0
Q3 6:23
Demon June run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line
97.7%
0.0
Q3 5:57
Demon June run for 2 yds to the UCF 48
97.7%
0.0
Q3 5:12
Benjamin Hall run for 2 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down
97.8%
+0.1
Q3 4:34
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jordan Shipp
97.8%
0.0
Q3 4:30
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Davion Gause
97.8%
0.0
Q3 4:20
Max Johnson pass complete to Shanard Clower for 5 yds to the UCF 41
97.8%
0.0
Q3 4:05
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
97.8%
-0.1
Q3 3:39
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jake Johnson
97.8%
0.0
Q3 3:27
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 29
97.8%
0.0
Q3 2:49
Demon June run for 11 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST down
97.8%
0.0
Q3 2:07
Max Johnson pass complete to Davion Gause for 9 yds to the UCF 9
97.8%
0.0
Q3 1:48
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the UCF 8 for a 1ST down
97.8%
0.0
Q3 1:06
Max Johnson pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
95.2%
-2.6
Q3 1:06
Timeout UCF, clock 01:06
97.1%
+1.9
UCF · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · -8 yds
Q3 1:06
Rece Verhoff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
95.1%
-2.0
Q3 0:59
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ Black
97.1%
+2.0
Q3 0:40
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 8 yds to the UCF 17
97.1%
0.0
Q3 0:16
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Myles Montgomery
97.1%
0.0
Q3 0:08
Anthony Venneri punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 42
97.1%
0.0
UNC · Drive 15PUNT · 10 plays · 14 yds
Q3 0:04
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Demon June
95.1%
-2.0
Q3 0:00
Max Johnson pass complete to Jordan Owens for 3 yds to the UNC 45
95.1%
0.0
Q4 14:56
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Max pass incomplete short right to Shipp,Jordan thrown to UCF36 PENALTY UCF Offside 5 yards from UNC45 to UNC50. NO PLAY.
95.1%
0.0
Q4 14:50
Davion Gause run for no gain to the 50 yard line
95.0%
-0.1
Q4 14:03
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 11 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down
95.4%
+0.4
Q4 13:25
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jake Johnson
95.3%
-0.1
Q4 13:13
Max Johnson pass complete to Demon June for 5 yds to the UCF 34
95.3%
0.0
Q4 12:38
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Max pass incomplete short left thrown to UCF29 PENALTY UNC Holding (Blaske,Austin) 10 yards from UCF34 to UCF44. NO PLAY.
95.3%
-0.1
Q4 12:28
Max Johnson pass incomplete
95.5%
+0.2
Q4 12:20
Tom Maginness punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Antione Jackson at the UCF 7
95.5%
0.0
UCF · Drive 16TD · 21 plays · 93 yds
Q4 12:15
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 11
97.2%
+1.7
Q4 11:31
Duane Thomas Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 15
97.2%
0.0
Q4 10:51
Tayven Jackson run for 2 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST down
97.2%
0.0
Q4 10:25
Timeout North Carolina, clock 10:25
97.1%
0.0
Q4 10:13
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 26
97.1%
0.0
Q4 9:41
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 20
97.2%
+0.1
Q4 9:01
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST down
97.2%
0.0
Q4 8:46
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the UCF 37
97.2%
0.0
Q4 8:06
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 36
97.2%
0.0
Q4 7:18
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 7 yds to the UCF 43
97.2%
0.0
Q4 6:42
Timeout UCF, clock 06:42
97.2%
0.0
Q4 6:34
Jacurri Brown run for 14 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST down
97.2%
0.0
Q4 6:02
Jacurri Brown run for 4 yds to the UNC 39
97.1%
0.0
Q4 5:21
Jacurri Brown run for 9 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST down
97.1%
0.0
Q4 4:39
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the UNC 30
97.2%
0.0
Q4 3:58
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Waden Charles for 6 yds to the UNC 24
97.2%
0.0
Q4 3:26
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Waden Charles
97.2%
0.0
Q4 3:26
Timeout UCF, clock 03:26
97.2%
0.0
Q4 3:13
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 14 yds to the UNC 10 for a 1ST down
97.2%
0.0
Q4 2:29
Tayven Jackson run for 5 yds to the UNC 5
97.2%
0.0
Q4 1:54
Jaden Nixon run for 5 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
98.1%
+0.9
UNC · Drive 17DOWNS · 6 plays · 4 yds
Q4 1:54
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.1%
0.0
Q4 1:46
North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNC 30
97.6%
-0.4
Q4 1:16
Max Johnson pass complete to Nathan Leacock for no gain to the UNC 30
97.6%
0.0
Q4 0:41
Max Johnson pass complete to Caleb Hood for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 29
97.6%
0.0
Q4 0:17
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Shanard Clower
97.6%
0.0
Q4 0:13
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Shanard Clower
97.6%
0.0
UCF · Drive 18END OF GAME · 1 play · -2 yds
Q4 0:00
(00:13) Kneel down by UCF at UNC31 for loss of 2 yards.
98.1%
+0.4
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 8:23
Tayven Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+9.8
FG · Q2 10:03
Noe Ruelas 41 yd FG GOOD
+5.9
TD · Q2 0:13
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 17 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+5.6