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PITT

Pittsburgh 24 at West Virginia 31

WVU
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:26 · Jaylen Henderson sacked by Sean FitzSimmons for a loss of 10 yards to the WVU 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Pregame prior−4.1Home team on offense−6.6Garbage-time factor−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:27: Tye Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — WVU win probability +11.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:16: Eli Holstein 1 Yd Run (Eli Holstein Pass to Cataurus Hicks for Two-Point Conversion) — PITT win probability +17.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:56: Trey Butkowski 36 Yd Field Goal — PITT win probability +10.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:23: Raphael Williams Jr. 14 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick) — PITT win probability +12.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:11: Grayson Barnes 2 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Kade Hensley Kick) — WVU win probability +45.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10PITT made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:18PITT 4th & 20 at PITT 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:25WVU 4th & 8 at PITT 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34PITT 4th & 10 at WVU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:37WVU 4th & 25 at WVU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:24PITT 4th & 5 at WVU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:21PITT 4th & 13 at WVU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:29PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 29, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:37WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:29WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:10PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:32WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:37PITT 4th & 5 at WVU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−7.2
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:43WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:13PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:56WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:35PITT 4th & 10 at WVU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:30PITT 4th & 24 at WVU 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−5.4
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−10.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:56PITT 4th & 4 at WVU 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−14.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:41WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.9%−2.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:26WVU 4th & 3 at PITT 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−5.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−3.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:03WVU 4th & 3 at PITT 3, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.7%−3.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−9.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:47PITT 4th & 9 at WVU 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    88.0%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 11:51WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:27WVU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:16PITT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:23PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:11WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−7.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:3771% → 70%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-11
29.2%
Eli Holstein sacked by Curtis Jones Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the PITT 8 Eli Holstein fumbled, recovered by PITT Justin Holmes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 21
OWN 8
0
29.3%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Desmond ReidSimilar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 21
OWN 8
+1
29.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 1 yd to the PITT 9Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 20
OWN 9
+2
30.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 41 yds , Preston Fox returns for 2 yds to the PITT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2MISSED FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:4030% → 31%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
30.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 20 yds to the PITT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
30.6%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 3 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 13
OPP 31
-2
30.7%
Nicco Marchiol run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 33Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+7
31.0%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 7 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
31.0%
Kade Hensley 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:3969% → 68%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
30.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+11
31.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 11 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
30.9%
Desmond Reid run for 8 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
31.1%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the WVU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
31.1%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
31.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 7 yds to the WVU 42Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-7
31.4%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the WVU 39 Pittsburgh Penalty, Illegal Block (Deuce Spann) to the WVU 49Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
31.7%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
32.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 2:4832% → 33%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
32.0%
Clay Ash run for 9 yds to the WVU 19Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+3
32.3%
Clay Ash run for 3 yds to the WVU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
32.4%
Nicco Marchiol run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVU 19Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 13
OWN 19
-5
32.5%
Nicco Marchiol sacked by Francis Brewu for a loss of 5 yards to the WVU 14Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 18
OWN 14
-7
32.6%
Nicco Marchiol sacked by Blaine Spires for a loss of 7 yards to the WVU 7Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 25
OWN 7
0
32.6%
Oliver Straw punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5MISSED FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 5:0968% → 65%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
32.5%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
32.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 7 yds to the WVU 44Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+10
32.7%
Desmond Reid run for 10 yds to the WVU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
32.5%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the WVU 30Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
32.6%
Eli Holstein run for 1 yd to the WVU 29Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
33.2%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q1 2:24
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+7
33.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 22 yds to the WVU 7 for a 1ST down Pittsburgh Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Jaeden Moore) to the WVU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
32.6%
Eli Holstein sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the WVU 27Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 15
OPP 27
0
33.8%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+2
34.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 2 yds to the WVU 25Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+43
35.5%
Trey Butkowski 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0936% → 46%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
36.3%
Tye Edwards run for 12 yds to the WVU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
36.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 2 yds to the WVU 39Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
37.7%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 6 yds to the WVU 45Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
37.8%
Tye Edwards run for 4 yds to the WVU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
38.7%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 18 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
39.5%
Tye Edwards run for 9 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
39.7%
Tye Edwards run for no gain to the PITT 24Similar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
40.0%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 11 yds to the PITT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
46.2%
Tye Edwards run for 12 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1056% → 54%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
44.1%
Juelz Goff run for 1 yd to the PITT 21Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
44.8%
Eli Holstein run for 8 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
44.8%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
45.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4448% → 47%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
47.9%
Tye Edwards run for 2 yds to the WVU 32Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
48.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass incomplete to Preston FoxSimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
47.7%
Nicco Marchiol pass incomplete to Cam VaughnSimilar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+23
46.6%
Oliver Straw punt for 52 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for 23 yds to the PITT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9INT
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:1855% → 56%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
45.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Deuce Spann for 16 yds to the WVU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+34
44.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 22 yds to the WVU 23 for a 1ST down West Virginia Penalty, Targeting (Ashton Woods) to the WVU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
43.2%
Eli Holstein run for 5 yds to the WVU 6Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-10
44.2%
Eli Holstein pass intercepted Darrian Lewis return for 10 yds to the WVU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2151% → 50%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
50.7%
Tye Edwards run for 5 yds to the WVU 15Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-1
50.7%
Tye Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 14Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+2
50.3%
Nicco Marchiol run for 2 yds to the WVU 16Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
50.0%
Oliver Straw punt for 42 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for no gain to the PITT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1951% → 48%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
49.2%
(06:29) PENALTY PITT False Start 5 yards from PITT42 to PITT37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+5
50.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Justin Holmes for 5 yds to the PITT 42Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
50.2%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+2
51.2%
Eli Holstein run for 2 yds to the PITT 44Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
52.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:2758% → 58%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
57.6%
Tye Edwards run for 6 yds to the WVU 9Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+27
57.6%
Tye Edwards run for 27 yds to the WVU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
58.3%
Cyncir Bowers run for 3 yds to the WVU 39Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
60.2%
Nicco Marchiol run for 2 yds to the WVU 37 Nicco Marchiol fumbled, recovered by WVU Walter Young BearSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+3
58.1%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Clay Ash for 3 yds to the WVU 40Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
57.8%
Oliver Straw punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:4946% → 48%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.3%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
54.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Bryce Yates for 6 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+68
55.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Bryce Yates for 68 yds to the WVU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
52.2%
Eli Holstein run for 1 yd to the WVU 5Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.6%
Cole Gonzales pass incomplete to Zion Fowler-ElSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
55.0%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
51.9%
Trey Butkowski 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:4652% → 53%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.9%
Clay Ash run for 3 yds to the WVU 28Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
52.1%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Preston Fox for 12 yds to the WVU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
54.3%
Clay Ash run for 2 yds to the WVU 42Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
54.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass incomplete to Cam VaughnSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+3
52.6%
Clay Ash run for 3 yds to the WVU 45Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+5
53.2%
Oliver Straw punt for 50 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for 5 yds to the PITT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2440% → 38%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
59.6%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-6
60.1%
Eli Holstein sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the PITT 4Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 16
OWN 4
+9
61.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 9 yds to the PITT 13Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
61.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
52.0%
Pittsburgh Penalty, unnecessary roughness (12 Yards) to the PITT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
52.0%
Nicco Marchiol run for 12 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST down Pittsburgh Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Blaine Spires) to the PITT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5949% → 47%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
48.7%
Tye Edwards run for 2 yds to the WVU 11Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
48.6%
Scotty Fox Jr. run for no gain to the WVU 11Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
47.4%
Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
47.2%
Oliver Straw punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0953% → 49%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
46.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Justin Holmes for 9 yds to the WVU 46Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
45.1%
Juelz Goff run for 4 yds to the WVU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
46.0%
Eli Holstein run for 2 yds to the WVU 40Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-2
46.4%
Cataurus Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVU 42Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
48.3%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
50.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:5951% → 72%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
50.8%
Scotty Fox Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVU 23Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+18
54.2%
Tye Edwards run for 18 yds to the WVU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.5%
Scotty Fox Jr. run for no gain to the WVU 41Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+56
56.9%
Scotty Fox Jr. pass complete to Justin Smith-Brown for 56 yds to the PITT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
60.8%
Tye Edwards run for 1 yd to the PITT 2Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
61.0%
Scotty Fox Jr. run for no gain to the PITT 2Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.2%
PENALTY PITT Offside (Neal,Isaiah) 1 yard from PITT02 to PITT01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.6%
Tye Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
Q3 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
72.4%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Defensive Offside (Desmond Reid) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0131% → 54%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.9%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 2 yds to the PITT 27Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+67
69.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 67 yds to the WVU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
64.4%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 4 yds to the WVU 2Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.4%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 1 yd to the WVU 1Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.6%
Eli Holstein 1 Yd Run (Eli Holstein Pass to Cataurus Hicks for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3749% → 50%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.2%
Scotty Fox Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVU 28Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-21
49.5%
Scotty Fox Jr. pass intercepted Kyle Louis return for 21 yds to the WVU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22FG
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:4957% → 55%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
43.0%
Eli Holstein run for no gain to the WVU 14Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
42.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 7 yds to the WVU 7Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-9
44.9%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Spann,Deuce rush left for 6 yards gain to the WVU01 (Bogle,Ben) PENALTY PITT Holding (Holmes,Justin) 9 yards from WVU07 to WVU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 12
OPP 16
-12
45.8%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-12 Yards) to the WVU 28Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 24
OPP 28
+46
45.1%
Trey Butkowski 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5846% → 44%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Tye Edwards run for no gain to the WVU 25Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
45.4%
Scotty Fox Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVU 21Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-1
43.6%
Scotty Fox Jr. pass intercepted Braylan Lovelace return for 1 yd to the WVU 24Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-1
43.6%
Scotty Fox Jr. pass intercepted Braylan Lovelace return for 1 yd to the WVU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24FG
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:1763% → 66%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
36.9%
Juelz Goff run for 7 yds to the WVU 17Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
37.0%
Juelz Goff run for 2 yds to the WVU 15Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-5
38.8%
(01:20) PENALTY PITT False Start (Gouveia,Keith) 5 yards from WVU15 to WVU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-5
38.9%
PENALTY PITT False Start (Persi,Jeffrey) 5 yards from WVU20 to WVU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+7
40.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Deuce Spann for 7 yds to the WVU 18Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
33.9%
Trey Butkowski 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 22 yds · 3:2534% → 35%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.8%
Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete to Clay AshSimilar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.3%
Jaylen Henderson run for 4 yds to the WVU 29Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
33.0%
PENALTY PITT Offside (Biles,Rasheem) 5 yards from WVU29 to WVU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
34.8%
Tye Edwards run for no gain to the WVU 34Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
32.7%
Jaylen Henderson run for 1 yd to the WVU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
34.7%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,Jaylen pass incomplete deep right to Vaughn,Cam thrown to PITT40 PENALTY PITT Pass Interference (Murray,Rashan) 15 yards from WVU35 to WVU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
50
0
39.3%
Jaylen Henderson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 10
50
-5
38.2%
(12:52) PENALTY WVU False Start (Krahe,Nick) 5 yards from WVU50 to WVU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+4
33.3%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 4 yds to the WVU 49Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+8
33.2%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Clay Ash for 8 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 3
OPP 43
-10
34.9%
Jaylen Henderson sacked by Sean FitzSimmons for a loss of 10 yards to the WVU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:5171% → 90%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
29.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 4 yds to the WVU 43Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
27.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Juelz Goff for 3 yds to the WVU 40Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+10
27.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Juelz Goff for 10 yds to the WVU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
25.2%
Juelz Goff run for 6 yds to the WVU 24Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+14
23.2%
West Virginia Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (MarShon Oxley) to the WVU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
10.4%
Raphael Williams Jr. 14 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:1310% → 18%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.2%
Tye Edwards run for 9 yds to the WVU 34Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
11.0%
Tye Edwards run for 11 yds to the WVU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
10.7%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 14 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
11.5%
Tye Edwards run for 2 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+13
11.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 13 yds to the PITT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
12.3%
Clay Ash run for no gain to the PITT 26Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
11.8%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 3 yds to the PITT 23Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+15
10.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Clay Ash for 15 yds to the PITT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
10.4%
Clay Ash run for 4 yds to the PITT 4Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
10.3%
Nicco Marchiol run for 1 yd to the PITT 3Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.8%
Clay Ash run for no gain to the PITT 3Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
18.4%
Kade Hensley 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:1188% → 91%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.6%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Zion Fowler-ElSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
11.9%
Juelz Goff run for 17 yds to the WVU 42 for a 1ST down West Virginia Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Kekoura Tarnue) to the WVU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
9.3%
Juelz Goff run for 1 yd to the WVU 42Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
9.1%
Ja'Kyrian Turner run for 2 yds to the WVU 40Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+3
8.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Ja'Kyrian Turner for 3 yds to the WVU 37Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 4
OPP 37
-5
9.1%
PENALTY PITT Delay Of Game 5 yards from WVU37 to WVU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
8.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 29TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 2:1915% → 63%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
15.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 9 yds to the WVU 22Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+2
16.9%
Tye Edwards run for 2 yds to the WVU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
13.4%
Nicco Marchiol pass incomplete to Cam VaughnSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
13.2%
PENALTY WVU Delay Of Game 5 yards from WVU24 to WVU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+6
12.1%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Clay Ash for 6 yds to the WVU 25Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+34
11.8%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 34 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
15.8%
Clay Ash run for 3 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+13
16.2%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 13 yds to the PITT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
19.9%
Clay Ash run for 6 yds to the PITT 19Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+2
18.9%
Clay Ash run for 2 yds to the PITT 17Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+2
13.9%
Clay Ash run for 2 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
16.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass incomplete to Grayson BarnesSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+13
16.9%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Marchiol,Nicco pass incomplete short middle to Vaughn,Cam thrown to PITT00 PENALTY PITT Pass Interference (Murray,Rashan) 13 yards from PITT15 to PITT02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.7%
Nicco Marchiol pass incomplete to Rodney Gallagher IIISimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.0%
Grayson Barnes 2 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Kade Hensley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
50.0%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+50
TD · Q4 0:11
Grayson Barnes 2 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Kade Hensley Kick)
+45.2
TD · Q3 6:16
Eli Holstein 1 Yd Run (Eli Holstein Pass to Cataurus Hicks for Two-Point Conversion)
-17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com