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SMU

SMU 24 at TCU 35

TCU
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · J. Hoover takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:50: Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 4 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +11.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:54: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 7 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK) — SMU win probability +14.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 10:30: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 34 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK) — SMU win probability +29.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:18: Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 70 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +29.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:03: Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 44 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +12.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:19SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:38TCU 4th & 5 at SMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:32SMU 4th & 7 at TCU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00TCU 4th & 4 at SMU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:05SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.5%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:30SMU 4th & 7 at TCU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:01TCU 4th & 4 at SMU 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:41TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:21SMU 4th & 20 at SMU 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−3.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:49TCU 4th & 15 at SMU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:26SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 36, down 4
    Close callPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:19TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−3.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:48SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:48SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:35TCU 4th & 1 at SMU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:57TCU 4th & 15 at SMU 29, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:57TCU 4th & 15 at SMU 29, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:56TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:26TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:21SMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:50TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:54SMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:30SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−1.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:18TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:03TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3530% → 31%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.6%
T.J. Harden run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
69.5%
T.J. Harden run for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
69.4%
(13:55) PENALTY SMU False Start (Hibner,Matthew) 5 yards from SMU33 to SMU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
69.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
69.4%
Wade McSparron punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 33 , Jordan Dwyer returns for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1669% → 71%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
69.4%
Jeremy Payne run for 22 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
69.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 12 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
69.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
69.6%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-5
69.5%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Taylor-Whitfield,Ben) 5 yards from SMU31 to SMU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 13
OPP 36
-5
69.3%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Battle,Trent) 5 yards from SMU36 to SMU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 18
OPP 41
+13
69.2%
Josh Hoover run for 13 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+8
69.2%
Josh Hoover run for 8 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
69.6%
Trent Battle run for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-8
69.6%
Major Everhart run for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 17
OPP 27
+27
70.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 27 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 5:1129% → 31%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
70.6%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
70.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Link Rhodes for 12 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
70.3%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson Jr.,Chris rush right for 10 yards gain to the TCU44 (Clark,Bud; Glover,Vernon), out of bounds PENALTY SMU Holding (Chamblee,Andrew) 10 yards from SMU46 to SMU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+3
70.9%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 17
OWN 39
0
70.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+25
71.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 25 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
70.3%
Kevin Jennings run for 11 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
69.8%
(05:36) PENALTY SMU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TCU25 to TCU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+3
70.2%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+13
70.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Cooper for 13 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
69.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jalen CooperSimilar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
69.8%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
70.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
69.0%
Sam Keltner 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:0069% → 74%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
69.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 12 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
69.4%
SMU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
70.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+3
70.3%
Trent Battle run for 3 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
70.3%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Battle,Trent rush left for 10 yards gain to the SMU21 (Harmon,Deuce; Booker,Brandon) PENALTY TCU Holding (Bennett,Cade) 10 yards from SMU31 to SMU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 20
OPP 41
0
69.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan DwyerSimilar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+9
69.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 9 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+7
69.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 7 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+10
69.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 10 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
70.4%
Jeremy Payne run for 5 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
70.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 14:26
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
74.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 10 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:5226% → 30%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.6%
T.J. Harden run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
74.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 9 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
74.0%
PENALTY TCU Delay Of Game 5 yards from SMU33 to SMU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
73.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
73.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to T.J. Harden for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+7
74.1%
Kevin Jennings run for 7 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
75.5%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
50
-10
74.8%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Jennings,Kevin pass incomplete short right to Hibner,Matthew thrown to TCU33 PENALTY SMU Holding (Williams,PJ) 10 yards from SMU50 to SMU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+4
76.0%
Romello Brinson run for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+9
76.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 9 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+34
75.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 34 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
74.6%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
74.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 2 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
68.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 9 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
69.7%
PENALTY SMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Hoopii,Abel) 15 yards from SMU35 to SMU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6INT
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:3070% → 73%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
70.3%
Joseph Manjack IV run for 6 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+15
71.5%
Trent Battle run for 15 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
72.0%
Josh Hoover sacked by Cameron Robertson for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+17
71.0%
Josh Hoover run for 7 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ahmaad Moses) to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
72.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 9 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
72.8%
Nate Palmer run for no gain to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
72.0%
Nate Palmer run for 2 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
73.3%
Jeremy Payne run for 4 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
73.1%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted, touchback. Jaelyn Davis-Robinson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:5530% → 31%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
70.5%
T.J. Harden run for 7 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
69.3%
T.J. Harden run for 8 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
69.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to T.J. Harden for 30 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
65.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Matthew HibnerSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
65.5%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
66.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
68.8%
Sam Keltner 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:2370% → 70%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
70.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 14 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
71.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jeremy PayneSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
71.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 6 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
71.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
70.2%
Ethan Craw punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:0069% → 69%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
69.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 17 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
71.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
70.2%
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
70.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan DwyerSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
68.5%
Ethan Craw punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1331% → 29%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
69.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jalen CooperSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
69.3%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-13
70.0%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Kaleb Elarms-Orr for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 20
OWN 5
0
71.3%
Wade McSparron punt for 48 yds , Jordan Dwyer returns for no gain to the TCU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:3171% → 84%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
71.3%
PENALTY TCU False Start 5 yards from TCU47 to TCU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
69.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+47
69.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 47 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
72.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 7 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
83.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 4 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5019% → 35%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.1%
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
81.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
82.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to T.J. Harden for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+15
82.2%
PENALTY TCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Carroll,Max) 15 yards from SMU33 to SMU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
80.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 10 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
79.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 14 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
78.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 6 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+3
78.6%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+12
79.9%
T.J. Harden run for 12 yds to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
78.9%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the TCU 7Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
64.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 7 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14MISSED FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 3:5972% → 71%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.6%
Trent Battle run for 8 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
72.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 5 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
73.8%
Trent Battle run for 27 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
76.4%
Trent Battle run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+7
75.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 7 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+4
75.3%
Josh Hoover run for 4 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
76.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan DwyerSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
76.7%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Strickland,Remington) 5 yards from SMU25 to SMU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
75.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan DwyerSimilar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 15
OPP 30
0
73.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+47
71.0%
Nate McCashland 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1332% → 30%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
68.5%
Yamir Knight run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
68.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+4
70.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 4 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
69.9%
Wade McSparron punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Dwyer at the TCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5972% → 70%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
72.4%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
72.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+9
70.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 9 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.8%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete deep middle to Small,Ed thrown to TCU48 QB hurried by Robertson,Cameron PENALTY TCU Holding declined TCU Holding (Hughes,Ryan) 10 yards from TCU25 to TCU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
72.4%
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-6
72.1%
Josh Hoover sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+14
70.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 14 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
70.0%
Ethan Craw punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:4232% → 67%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
68.2%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+30
66.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 30 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
62.2%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+34
32.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 34 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0542% → 72%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.2%
Jeremy Payne run for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
42.9%
Jeremy Payne run for no gain to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+70
72.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 70 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2231% → 27%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jalen CooperSimilar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
71.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Wade McSparron punt for 50 yds , Jordan Dwyer returns for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Wade McSparron punt for 50 yds , Jordan Dwyer returns for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3874% → 94%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.2%
Jeremy Payne run for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
73.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jeremy PayneSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.3%
(08:14) PENALTY TCU False Start (Hughes,Ryan) 5 yards from TCU25 to TCU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+30
74.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
50
-1
81.4%
Jon Denman run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+7
81.0%
Trent Battle run for 7 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+44
93.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 44 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:348% → 7%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
91.7%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+13
91.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 13 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
90.8%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Paul Oyewale for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 16
OWN 37
0
92.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 16
OWN 37
-22
93.3%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted Jamel Johnson return for 22 yds to the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 6 yds · 3:0695% → 99%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
95.1%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+1
95.7%
Jon Denman run for 1 yd to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+6
96.2%
Josh Hoover run for 6 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
96.1%
Jon Denman run for 2 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
97.2%
Jon Denman run for no gain to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-3
97.5%
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 27 Josh Hoover fumbled, recovered by TCU Josh HooverSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 13
OPP 27
-2
97.9%
Jon Denman run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 15
OPP 29
0
98.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 15
OPP 29
0
98.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23INT
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:393% → 3%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
97.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 7 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+14
97.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
50
+8
97.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-34
96.6%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted Jamel Johnson return for 34 yds to the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
99.0%
J. Hoover takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:18
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 70 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
+29.5
TD · Q4 10:30
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 34 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
-29.4
TD · Q3 5:54
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 7 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com