2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:49 · Cade Klubnik run for 1 yd for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:49: Cade Klubnik run for 1 yd for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +9.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:36: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 73 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +15.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:02: Haynes King run for 1 yd for a TD (Malik Rutherford pass to Dean Patterson for Two-Point Conversion) — GT win probability +30.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:26: Adam Randall run for 2 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +39.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Aidan Birr 55 Yd Field Goal — GT win probability +31.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 9:47GT 4th & 2 at CLEM 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.8%50% to convertField goal45.6%−0.293% to makePunt44.8%−1.0average punt
- Q1 5:50GT 4th & 3 at CLEM 23, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 46.8% before the snapGo for it46.8%52% to convertField goalTheir call46.7%−0.270% to makePunt45.3%−1.6average punt
- Q1 1:40CLEM 4th & 3 at GT 35, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snapGo for it51.9%53% to convertField goalTheir call51.2%−0.745% to makePunt50.8%−1.0average punt
- Q2 13:22CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snapGo for it43.7%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.9%average punt
- Q2 7:46GT 4th & 11 at CLEM 25, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snapGo for it59.3%−0.925% to convertField goalTheir call60.2%66% to makePunt54.9%−5.4average punt
- Q2 0:49CLEM 4th & 1 at GT 1, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.0%59% to convertField goal27.0%−2.094% to makePunt21.6%−7.4average punt
- Q3 10:27GT 4th & 25 at GT 37, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snapGo for it59.3%−4.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.9%average punt
- Q3 8:51GT 4th & 9 at GT 26, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snapGo for it45.4%−2.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.9%average punt
- Q3 7:52CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 32, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snapGo for it50.4%−2.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.0%average punt
- Q3 2:20GT 4th & 1 at CLEM 40, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.0%70% to convertField goal43.9%−7.034% to makePunt44.5%−6.5average punt
- Q3 1:17CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 47, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 53.5% before the snapGo for it54.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.7%−1.3average punt
- Q4 0:00GT 4th & 2 at CLEM 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snapGo for it61.1%−4.557% to convertField goalTheir call65.6%40% to makePunt55.1%−10.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 14:55GT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.7%97% to makeGo for two55.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:49CLEM Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.3%97% to makeGo for two38.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:36CLEM Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.7%97% to makeGo for two49.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:02GT Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick71.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call71.0%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 3:26CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.8%97% to makeGo for two40.9%−0.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1DOWNS13 plays · 67 yds · 5:0847% → 48%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
46.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 9 yds to the GT 34Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 3
50
-2
47.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 48Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+21
47.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Rivers for 21 yds to the CLEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+18
47.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 18 yds to the CLEM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 2
OPP 4
-4
48.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for a loss of 4 yards to the CLEM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2FUMBLE5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0452% → 52%
Q1 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+10
47.9%
Cade Klubnik run for 10 yds to the CLEM 30 Cade Klubnik fumbled, recovered by GT Zachary TobeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1049% → 50%
Q1 6:34
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
49.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 3 yds to the CLEM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4MISSED FG12 plays · 44 yds · 3:5550% → 49%
GTDrive 5TD5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2851% → 59%
CLEMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2843% → 41%
GTDrive 7FG10 plays · 46 yds · 5:1259% → 70%
Q2 11:22
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+9
61.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 9 yds to the CLEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+18
62.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Zion Taylor for 18 yds to the CLEM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+4
62.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 4 yds to the CLEM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD20 plays · 75 yds · 6:3931% → 40%
Q2 6:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
69.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 9 yds to the CLEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
69.6%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete, PENALTY CLEMSON holding 10 yards to the CLEMSON26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+8
70.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 8 yds to the GT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+13
71.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 13 yds to the GT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9END OF HALF3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3063% → 63%
CLEMDrive 10INT8 plays · 66 yds · 3:1339% → 43%
Q3 13:56
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
58.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 7 yds to the GT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+33
58.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Josh Sapp for 33 yds to the GT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-45
57.1%
Cade Klubnik pass intercepted Omar Daniels return for 45 yds to the CLEM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -15 yds · 0:4468% → 64%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
68.2%
Haynes King run for a loss of 14 yards to the GT 40 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by GT Eric Rivers , return for 2 yds to the GT 40Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 22
OWN 40
-3
65.3%
Haynes King sacked by Sammy Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the GT 37Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 25
OWN 37
+9
63.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 48 yds , Bryant Wesco Jr. returns for 9 yds to the CLEM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD2 plays · 76 yds · 0:4237% → 53%
GTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3749% → 47%
Q3 8:51
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+12
46.9%
Marshall Nichols punt for 41 yds , Bryant Wesco Jr. returns for 12 yds to the CLEM 38 Clemson Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the CLEM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5653% → 50%
Q3 7:52
4TH & 8
OWN 32
-2
50.0%
Jack Smith punt for 48 yds , Bailey Stockton returns for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 30 Georgia Tech Penalty, Illegal Block (9 Yards) to the GT 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15FUMBLE13 plays · 50 yds · 5:1049% → 51%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
49.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Malachi Hosley for 6 yds to the GT 27Similar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
50.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Dean Patterson for 6 yds to the GT 39Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-1
51.3%
J.T. Byrne run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLEM 41 J.T. Byrne fumbled, recovered by GT J.T. ByrneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5857% → 54%
Q3 1:17
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
45.7%
Jack Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17TD13 plays · 90 yds · 5:4847% → 86%
Q3 0:10
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+10
46.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 10 yds to the GT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
47.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 6 yds to the GT 40Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+9
49.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Isiah Canion for 9 yds to the GT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+27
52.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 27 yds to the CLEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.8%
Haynes King run for 1 yd for a TD (Malik Rutherford pass to Dean Patterson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0421% → 60%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:26
Adam Randall run for 2 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
-39.1
FG · Q4 0:00
Aidan Birr 55 Yd Field Goal
+31.9
TD · Q4 10:02
Haynes King run for 1 yd for a TD (Malik Rutherford pass to Dean Patterson for Two-Point Conversion)
+30.9