2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreGWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:19 · Aidan Birr 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:22: Timeout Gardner-Webb, clock 03:22 — GWEB win probability +34.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 7:12: Malachi Hosley run for 5 yds to the GWEB 0, for a TD (Aidan Birr PAT MISSED) (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +4.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:36: Charlie Viorel 40 yd FG MISSED, Ahmari Harvey returns for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GWEB win probability +9.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 13:39: Cole Pennington pass to Caleb Borders for 14 yds to the GT 14, for a TD for a 1ST down (Charlie Viorel PAT BLOCKED) — GWEB win probability +29.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:19: Aidan Birr 23 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +4.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 5GWEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q2 14:01GWEB 4th & 5 at GT 32, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.3%42% to convertField goal5.3%−<0.151% to makePunt5.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:42GWEB 4th & 3 at GWEB 43, down 1Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it5.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:48GWEB 4th & 5 at GWEB 6, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q2 1:46GWEB 4th & 3 at GWEB 32, down 1Close callPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:33GT 4th & 6 at GT 25, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snapGo for it90.1%−0.738% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.8%average punt
- Q2 0:12GWEB 4th & 6 at GWEB 33, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q3 11:32GT 4th & 17 at GWEB 40, up 1Close callWent for it · 89.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.5%−0.715% to convertField goal89.0%−0.234% to makePunt89.2%average punt
- Q3 9:50GT 4th & 19 at GWEB 36, up 1Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 88.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.1%−1.211% to convertField goal88.3%42% to makePunt88.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 7:46GT 4th & 2 at GWEB 17, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.0%56% to convertField goal87.3%−0.780% to makePunt82.3%−5.7average punt
- Q3 4:33GWEB 4th & 1 at GT 42, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.6%70% to convertField goal5.7%−2.930% to makePunt6.3%−2.3average punt
- Q4 10:19GT 4th & 5 at GWEB 5, down 6Close callKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snapGo for it51.6%33% to convertField goalTheir call51.0%−0.592% to makePunt34.2%−17.4average punt
- Q4 8:10GWEB 4th & 9 at GT 41, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 52.2% before the snapGo for it51.8%32% to convertField goal49.6%−2.232% to makePuntTheir call50.7%−1.1average punt
- Q4 3:15GWEB 4th & 5 at GWEB 38, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snapGo for it66.8%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.5%average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGWEBDrive 1TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 10:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
to Anthony Lowe for 1 yd to the GT 0, for a TD, Nate Hampton pass (Charlie Viorel PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2INT6 plays · 27 yds · 2:3699% → 98%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.6%
Aaron Philo pass to Malik Rutherford for 11 yds to the GT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 3DOWNS9 plays · 18 yds · 3:142% → 3%
Q1 7:10
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+10
98.0%
Cole Pennington pass to Chris Lofton for 10 yds to the GWEB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.9%
Cole Pennington pass to Chris Lofton for 10 yds to the GWEB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-2
97.8%
Cole Pennington sacked by Christian Garrett for a loss of 2 yards to the GWEB 37Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-7
97.6%
Cole Pennington sacked by Akelo Stone for a loss of 7 yards to the GWEB 30Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+24
97.4%
Brady Braun punt for 42 yds to the , Bailey Stockton returns for 24 yds to the GT 28, Georgia Tech Penalty, holding (Omar Daniels)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4TD6 plays · 53 yds · 4:2798% → 96%
GWEBDrive 5DOWNS11 plays · 29 yds · 4:062% → 4%
Q1 3:07
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+19
97.6%
Nate Hampton pass to Anthony Lowe for 19 yds to the GWEB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+14
97.0%
Jackson Dorr punt, Georgia Tech Penalty, roughingthekicker (Jordan van den Berg)Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 5
OPP 32
-4
96.5%
Nate Hampton sacked by Melvin Jordan IV for a loss of 4 yards to the GT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6TD3 plays · 61 yds · 0:2997% → 97%
GWEBDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:503% → 3%
GTDrive 8DOWNS3 plays · 41 yds · 1:0797% → 97%
Q2 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+45
96.7%
Aaron Philo pass to Zion Taylor for 45 yds to the GWEB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 2:394% → 4%
Q2 6:48
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+11
96.2%
Brady Braun punt for 41 yds to the GWEB 36, Eric Rivers returns for 11 yds to the GWEB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10DOWNS10 plays · 65 yds · 2:4996% → 96%
Q2 6:20
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+17
96.0%
Aaron Philo pass to Malik Rutherford for 17 yds to the GWEB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+10
96.2%
Aaron Philo pass to Malachi Hosley, Georgia Tech Penalty, illegalblockinback (Bailey Stockton)Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+26
95.6%
Aaron Philo pass to Malik Rutherford for 26 yds to the GWEB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.9%
Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd to the GWEB 0, for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:135% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 44 yds · 1:1394% → 93%
GWEBDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:167% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14END OF HALF3 plays · 34 yds · 0:0093% → 94%
GTDrive 15DOWNS12 plays · 79 yds · 7:4894% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.8%
Aaron Philo pass to Eric Rivers, Georgia Tech Penalty, passinterference (Eric Rivers)Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+24
93.3%
Aaron Philo pass to Bailey Stockton for 24 yds to the GT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 20
OPP 37
-3
92.7%
Aaron Philo pass to Dean Patterson for a loss of 3 yards to the GWEB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 16DOWNS1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17TD5 plays · 25 yds · 2:1993% → 96%
Q3 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.7%
Malachi Hosley run for 5 yds to the GWEB 0, for a TD (Aidan Birr PAT MISSED) (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 18TD17 plays · 62 yds · 6:206% → 6%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.9%
Cole Pennington pass to Jabre Bevineau for 12 yds to the GWEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-6
93.2%
Cole Pennington sacked by Amontrae Bradford for a loss of 6 yards to the GWEB 43Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
-10
93.1%
Cole Pennington sacked by Akelo Stone for a loss of 10 yards to the GT 28Similar
Q3 0:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 28
+5
94.0%
Charlie Viorel yd FG MISSED, Georgia Tech Penalty, offside (Ahmari Harvey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 19TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5716% → 49%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.6%
Cole Pennington pass to Anthony Lowe for 14 yds to the GWEB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
81.7%
Cole Pennington pass to Anthony Lowe for 20 yds to the GT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
80.1%
Cole Pennington pass to Chris Lofton for 13 yds to the GT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
51.0%
Cole Pennington pass to Caleb Borders for 14 yds to the GT 14, for a TD for a 1ST down (Charlie Viorel PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20FG9 plays · 57 yds · 3:2066% → 65%
GWEBDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 34 yds · 2:0944% → 49%
GTDrive 22DOWNS3 plays · 85 yds · 1:3658% → 62%
GWEBDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 3:0656% → 69%
Q4 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
39.9%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete, Georgia Tech Penalty, passinterference (Dalen Penson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24DOWNS1 play · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
43.0%
Graham Knowles pass to Dean Patterson for 84 yds to the GWEB 0, for a TD for a 1ST down (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 25DOWNS9 plays · 30 yds · 2:3571% → 90%
Q4 1:12
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+5
17.6%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete, Georgia Tech Penalty, offside (Tah'j Butler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+88.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:22
Timeout Gardner-Webb, clock 03:22
-34.3
TD · Q4 13:39
Cole Pennington pass to Caleb Borders for 14 yds to the GT 14, for a TD for a 1ST down (Charlie Viorel PAT BLOCKED)
-29.5