2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadWCU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreWCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:33 · Stephen Brantley punt for 35 yds , Carlos Hernandez returns for 23 yds to the WCU 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:47: Demond Claiborne run for 27 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WAKE win probability +3.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:46: Christian Lowery 23 yd FG GOOD — WCU win probability +3.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:46: Timeout Wake Forest, clock 05:46 — WAKE win probability +3.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:29: Demond Claiborne run for 85 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK) — WAKE win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:29: Timeout Wake Forest, clock 12:29 — WCU win probability +1.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
- Q1 11:51WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snapGo for it86.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.5%average punt
- Q1 9:31WCU 4th & 14 at WCU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it13.9%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%average punt
- Q1 8:21WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snapGo for it85.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.2%average punt
- Q1 6:54WCU 4th & 5 at WCU 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snapGo for it15.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%average punt
- Q1 3:41WCU 4th & 3 at WCU 36, down 7Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it14.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:00WAKE 4th & 13 at WCU 43, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snapGo for it90.0%−0.321% to convertField goal90.1%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call90.3%average punt
- Q2 11:32WCU 4th & 1 at WCU 47, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.5%−0.8average punt
- Q2 5:46WCU 4th & 5 at WAKE 5, down 21Close callKicked a field goal · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.2%33% to convertField goalTheir call6.2%−<0.192% to makePunt3.5%−2.8average punt
- Q2 3:39WAKE 4th & 17 at WCU 18, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snapGo for it90.4%−1.113% to convertField goalTheir call91.4%79% to makePunt88.3%−3.2average punt
- Q2 3:20WCU 4th & 10 at WCU 20, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it7.5%−0.727% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%average punt
- Q2 0:31WCU 4th & 11 at WAKE 26, down 18Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.7%−0.826% to convertField goal8.5%64% to makePunt6.0%−2.5average punt
- Q3 13:11WCU 4th & 5 at WCU 41, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.6%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q3 10:17WCU 4th & 3 at WCU 49, down 25Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 7:53WCU 4th & 20 at WAKE 44, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.610% to convertField goal1.8%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q3 4:05WAKE 4th & 1 at WCU 8, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%70% to convertField goal99.5%−0.290% to makePunt99.0%−0.6average punt
- Q3 4:05WAKE 4th & 1 at WCU 8, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%70% to convertField goal99.5%−0.290% to makePunt99.0%−0.6average punt
- Q3 2:33WCU 4th & 12 at WCU 18, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 6:49WCU 4th & 1 at WAKE 1, down 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%59% to convertField goal0.0%−0.194% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 5:57WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.0%97% to makeGo for two86.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:59WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick88.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call88.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:47WAKE Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick90.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call90.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:29WAKE Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:16WAKE Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:52WAKE Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:49WCU Touchdown, down 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5690% → 89%
WCUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1211% → 11%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
89.4%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Patrick Boyd Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the WCU 11Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+20
89.2%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Malik Knight for 20 yds to the WCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-5
88.9%
Bennett Judy sacked by Langston Hardy for a loss of 5 yards to the WCU 27Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 14
OWN 27
+2
88.9%
Stephen Brantley punt for 52 yds , Carlos Hernandez returns for 2 yds to the WAKE 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0589% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2212% → 12%
Q1 6:54
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+27
87.8%
Stephen Brantley punt for 52 yds , Carlos Hernandez returns for 27 yds to the WAKE 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD6 plays · 62 yds · 0:5288% → 90%
Q1 6:37
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+21
87.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 21 yds to the WCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 2:1211% → 12%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
89.0%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Painter Richards-Baker for 17 yds to the WCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
88.9%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Malik Knight for 6 yds to the WCU 35Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+5
89.1%
Bennett Judy pass complete to David Hulbert for 5 yds to the WCU 36Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+1
88.4%
Stephen Brantley punt for 38 yds , Carlos Hernandez returns for 1 yd to the WAKE 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7TD3 plays · 73 yds · 0:4289% → 91%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
88.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 25 yds to the WCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
89.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass incomplete deep middle to Berkhalter,Sterling thrown to W Car05 PENALTY W Car Pass Interference (Sykes,Hasaan) 15 yards from W Car48 to W Car33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
90.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 33 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 8INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.1%
Bennett Judy pass intercepted Zamari Stevenson return for 5 yds to the WCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9TD1 play · 27 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
94.0%
Demond Claiborne run for 27 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · -22 yds · 1:078% → 8%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.0%
PENALTY W Car False Start (Carney,Evan) 5 yards from W Car25 to W Car20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-14
92.1%
Bennett Judy sacked by Jayden Loving for a loss of 14 yards to the WCU 6Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 29
OWN 6
+3
92.2%
PENALTY W Car Delay Of Game (Brantley,Stephen) 3 yards from W Car06 to W Car03. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 12SF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:338% → 7%
WAKEDrive 13INT3 plays · 34 yds · 0:0494% → 94%
WCUDrive 14FG21 plays · 74 yds · 8:236% → 9%
Q2 13:59
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+14
93.7%
Bennett Judy pass complete to James Tyre for 14 yds to the WCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
94.3%
Bennett Judy pass complete to James Tyre for 13 yds to the WAKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
94.1%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Malik Knight for 2 yds to the WAKE 37Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+15
94.4%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Camury Reid for 15 yds to the WAKE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
93.9%
Wake Forest Penalty, unnecessary roughness (9 Yards) to the WAKE 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.0%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Marcus Striggles for no gain to the WAKE 9Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
93.9%
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Judy,Bennett sacked for loss of 6 yards to the Wake12 (Williams,BJ, Cusano,Frank) PENALTY Wake Face Mask (Lohavichan,Zach) 3 yards from Wake06 to Wake03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15MISSED FG8 plays · 57 yds · 1:5695% → 94%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+64
95.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 64 yds to the WCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+3
94.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 3 yds to the WCU 15Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+5
94.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 15 yds Wake Forest Penalty, Offensive Holding (Carlos Hernandez) to the WCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:178% → 7%
Q2 3:20
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
93.0%
Stephen Brantley punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WAKE 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17FUMBLE3 plays · 17 yds · 1:1195% → 95%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
95.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 17 yds to the WAKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
95.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 17 yds to the WCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-17
95.4%
run for a loss of 17 yards to the WAKE 35 fumbled, recovered by WCU Evan CarneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 1:249% → 7%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
91.1%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Patrick Boyd Jr. for 3 yds to the WAKE 32Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+7
92.0%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Dominic Dutton for 7 yds to the WAKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
92.3%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Branson Adams for 6 yds to the WAKE 19Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+10
93.2%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Marcus Striggles for 10 yds to the WAKE 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:447% → 7%
WAKEDrive 21TD3 plays · 83 yds · 0:3395% → 98%
WCUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 1:524% → 4%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
96.4%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Malik Knight for 17 yds to the WCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
96.1%
Bennett Judy pass complete to Dominic Dutton for 9 yds to the WAKE 49Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
96.2%
run for 2 yds to the WCU 49 fumbled, recovered by WCU Evan CarneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23FUMBLE4 plays · 14 yds · 1:1498% → 99%
Q3 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
98.5%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the WAKE 34 Robby Ashford fumbled, recovered by WCU Evan CarneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 0:564% → 3%
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-10
96.3%
Bennett Judy sacked by Langston Hardy for a loss of 10 yards to the WAKE 44Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 20
OPP 44
-12
96.8%
Bennett Judy sacked by Nuer Gatkuoth for a loss of 12 yards to the WCU 44Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
96.8%
Stephen Brantley punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Carlos Hernandez at the WAKE 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25TD4 plays · 93 yds · 0:2399% → 100%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+27
98.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 27 yds to the WAKE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
98.8%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass incomplete deep left to Barnes,Chris thrown to W Car35 PENALTY W Car Pass Interference (Anderson Jr,Darian) 15 yards from Wake34 to Wake49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
99.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 51 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 26FUMBLE3 plays · 6 yds · 0:241% → 1%
WAKEDrive 27DOWNS7 plays · 22 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q3 4:41
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+9
99.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ty Clark III for 9 yds to the WCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:261% → 0%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
99.5%
Isaac Lee pass complete to Malik Knight for 11 yds to the WCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
99.7%
Isaac Lee pass complete to Markel Townsend for 2 yds to the WCU 23Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+23
99.7%
Stephen Brantley punt for 35 yds , Carlos Hernandez returns for 23 yds to the WCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 29TD3 plays · 30 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
WCUDrive 30TD16 plays · 75 yds · 9:520% → 0%
Q3 0:38
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+7
99.8%
Isaac Lee pass complete to Markel Townsend for 7 yds to the WAKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.8%
Isaac Lee pass complete to Markel Townsend for 4 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+10
99.9%
Wake Forest Penalty, Defensive holding (William Tackie Jr.) to the WAKE 30Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+9
99.9%
Isaac Lee pass complete to Dominic Dutton for 9 yds to the WAKE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
99.9%
Isaac Lee pass complete to Josiah Thomas for 8 yds to the WAKE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.9%
Isaac Lee pass complete to Marcus Striggles for 1 yd to the WAKE 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 31END OF GAME12 plays · 34 yds · 6:42100% → 100%
Q4 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+12
100.0%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 12 yds to the WCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
100.0%
(01:55) Kneel down by Wake Forest at W Car28 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-2
100.0%
(01:10) Kneel down by Wake Forest at W Car30 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 30
-1
100.0%
(00:29) Kneel down by Wake Forest at W Car31 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:47
Demond Claiborne run for 27 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+3.9
FG · Q2 5:46
Timeout Wake Forest, clock 05:46
+3.9
TD · Q3 12:29
Demond Claiborne run for 85 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
+3.2