2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadWOF aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreWOF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:09 · Marcellous Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the WOF 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:53: Kyron Drones pass complete to Devin Alves for 19 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:24: Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 18 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:43: Sam Spence 43 yd FG GOOD — WOF win probability +1.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WOF has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:07: Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 8 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST down — VT win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 13:18: Haven Maddox kickoff for 63 yds — VT win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WOF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 5WOF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 13:30WOF 4th & 12 at WOF 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 10:09VT 4th & 2 at WOF 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.2%54% to convertField goal97.1%−0.190% to makePunt96.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:30WOF 4th & 15 at WOF 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q1 8:30WOF 4th & 15 at WOF 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q1 0:33WOF 4th & 19 at VT 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.111% to convertField goal3.9%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q2 10:53WOF 4th & 8 at WOF 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q2 4:57WOF 4th & 10 at WOF 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 3:25VT 4th & 19 at VT 21, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it97.7%−0.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%average punt
- Q2 0:43WOF 4th & 6 at VT 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call2.1%66% to makePunt1.3%−0.8average punt
- Q2 0:00VT 4th & 6 at WOF 41, up 18Close callKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call96.4%−0.332% to makePunt96.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:00VT 4th & 3 at WOF 3, up 18Close callKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.8%44% to convertField goalTheir call97.5%−0.393% to makePunt95.7%−2.1average punt
- Q4 8:19WOF 4th & 4 at WOF 31, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:00VT 4th & 4 at VT 30, up 32Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:24WOF 4th & 13 at WOF 32, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 6:26VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:53VT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:24VT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:52VT Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWOFDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:142% → 2%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.5%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Ihson Jackson-Anderson for 4 yds to the WOF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2DOWNS7 plays · 50 yds · 3:0898% → 98%
Q1 10:38
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+8
98.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 8 yds to the WOF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:352% → 2%
Q1 9:16
3RD & 7
OWN 12
-8
98.0%
Jayden Whitaker sacked by Michael Short for a loss of 8 yards to the WOF 4Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 15
OWN 4
0
97.9%
Maddox Cowart punt for 46 yds , Tucker Holloway returns for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 15
OWN 4
0
97.9%
Maddox Cowart punt for 46 yds , Tucker Holloway returns for no gain to the VT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4TD4 plays · 68 yds · 1:5998% → 98%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
97.8%
(08:25) Shotgun Prioleau,P.J. rush right for 0 yards to the Hokies32 (Ward,Wyatt) PENALTY Hokies Face Mask (Altuner,Kyle) 15 yards from Hokies32 to Hokies17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
97.8%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 5 yds to the WOF 39 for a 1ST down Wofford Penalty, Personal Foul (O'marion Brown) to the WOF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
97.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 21 yds to the WOF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 32 yds · 5:442% → 3%
Q1 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
97.8%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Isaiah Scott for 9 yds to the WOF 33Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+23
97.7%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Ivory Aikens for 23 yds to the VT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
97.5%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Ihson Jackson-Anderson for 7 yds to the VT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2897% → 98%
Q2 14:42
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
97.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 5 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+8
96.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for 8 yds to the WOF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
96.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for 8 yds to the WOF 35Similar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
97.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Devin Alves for 19 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:503% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8FUMBLE2 plays · 5 yds · 1:0898% → 97%
WOFDrive 9INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
96.9%
Jayden Whitaker pass intercepted Kemari Copeland return for no gain to the VT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD8 plays · 69 yds · 2:5197% → 99%
Q2 8:27
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+23
97.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ja'Ricous Hairston for 23 yds to the WOF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+18
97.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 18 yds to the WOF 25 for a 1ST down Wofford Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ivory Aikens) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+18
98.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 18 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:162% → 2%
VTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q2 4:04
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-9
98.6%
Kyron Drones sacked by Alijah Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the VT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 13FG12 plays · 35 yds · 2:322% → 3%
Q2 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
98.4%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Ivory Aikens for 4 yds to the WOF 46Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+17
98.2%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Ivory Aikens for 17 yds to the VT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-7
98.1%
Jayden Whitaker sacked by Kelvin Gilliam Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the VT 44Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+15
98.3%
(01:21) Shotgun Whitaker,Jayden pass complete short right to Modest Jr.,Gerald caught at Hokies47, for 0 yards to the Hokies44 (Short,Michael; Fall,Elhadj) PENALTY Hokies Roughing The Passer (Bell,Ben) 15 yards from Hokies44 to Hokies29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+7
98.1%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Anjuan Coleman Jr. for 7 yds to the VT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14MISSED FG8 plays · 25 yds · 0:3098% → 97%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
97.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for 10 yds to the VT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
97.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for 7 yds to the WOF 49Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
97.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for 4 yds to the WOF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
97.4%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass complete short right to Wimbush,Zeke caught at WOF38, for 7 yards to the WOF38 (Malcolm,Darius), out of bounds PENALTY Hokies Illegal Touch-Pass (Wimbush,Zeke). NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+4
97.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to P.J. Prioleau for 4 yds to the WOF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15FG12 plays · 62 yds · 5:4497% → 99%
Q3 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
98.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 8 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
98.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Donavon Greene for 9 yds to the WOF 45Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+5
98.1%
(12:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WOF45 (Pulley,Maximus; Foster,Seth) PENALTY WOF Illegal Substitution 5 yards from WOF46 to WOF41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+13
98.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Devin Alves for 13 yds to the WOF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
98.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Marcellous Hawkins for 19 yds to the WOF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16TD8 plays · 65 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+29
99.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Tucker Holloway for 14 yds to the WOF 49 for a 1ST down Wofford Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Zayd Rogan) to the WOF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+20
99.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Tucker Holloway for 20 yds to the WOF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
99.7%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Drones,Kyron pass incomplete short right to Holloway,Tucker thrown to WOF00 PENALTY WOF Pass Interference (Malcolm,Darius) 8 yards from WOF10 to WOF02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Anjuan Coleman Jr. for 3 yds to the WOF 28Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
99.9%
(10:12) Shotgun Modest Jr.,Gerald rush left for 6 yards gain to the WOF34 (Crim,Jojo; Robinson,Sheldon) PENALTY WOF Holding (Alegbe,Chizara) 10 yards from WOF28 to WOF18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Matt Flanders for 6 yds to the WOF 24Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
99.9%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Anjuan Coleman Jr. for 7 yds to the WOF 31Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Cavan Craig punt for 47 yds , Tucker Holloway returns for no gain to the VT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 18 yds · 4:12100% → 100%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
99.9%
(08:14) Shotgun Mason,Tyler rush right for 4 yards gain to the Hokies16 (Arthur,Mark), out of bounds PENALTY Hokies Holding (Lynch,Aidan) 6 yards from Hokies12 to Hokies06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
99.9%
PENALTY Hokies False Start (Lynch,Aidan) 5 yards from Hokies24 to Hokies19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Scott at the WOF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+11
100.0%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Jack Purdy for 11 yds to the WOF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Jayden Whitaker pass complete to Terrance Honeywood for 4 yds to the WOF 32Similar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+5
100.0%
Cavan Craig punt for 44 yds , Tucker Holloway returns for 5 yds to the VT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:24
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 18 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+1.4
FG · Q2 0:43
Sam Spence 43 yd FG GOOD
-1.3
TD · Q2 11:53
Kyron Drones pass complete to Devin Alves for 19 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+0.8