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SMU

SMU 28 at Missouri State 10

MOST
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Plaster Sports Complex
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Win probability · MOST
modelMOST aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMOST scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Dramekco Green run for 8 yds to the SMU 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:59: Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 9 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK) — MOST win probability +2.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q2 10:35: Wade McSparron punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MOST 20 — MOST win probability +3.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:33: T.J. Harden run for 5 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK) — SMU win probability +5.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:03: T.J. Harden run for 37 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK) — SMU win probability +5.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:58: Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 7 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK) — SMU win probability +6.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MOST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:21MOST 4th & 8 at SMU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:57SMU 4th & 11 at MOST 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:19SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:34MOST 4th & 5 at SMU 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:35SMU 4th & 15 at MOST 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:36MOST 4th & 1 at SMU 48, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:52MOST 4th & 15 at SMU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:29SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:21MOST 4th & 15 at MOST 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:00MOST 4th & 5 at SMU 49, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:00MOST 4th & 16 at MOST 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:25SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 47, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:59MOST 4th & 11 at MOST 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:30SMU 4th & 25 at SMU 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MOST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:59MOST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:42SMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:33SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:03SMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:58SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1497% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
3.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 16 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
3.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Link RhodesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
3.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
3.5%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted J.J. O'Neal return for no gain to the MOST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 2FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:254% → 5%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
3.5%
Shomari Lawrence run for 15 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
3.5%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Makai CopeSimilar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+21
3.5%
Jacob Clark pass complete to James BlackStrain for 21 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
3.6%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 12
OPP 25
-3
3.6%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+7
3.5%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 7 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
4.5%
Yousef Obeid 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:3496% → 95%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.4%
T.J. Harden run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
4.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+25
4.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 25 yds Romello Brinson fumbled, recovered by MOST Thomas AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
4.7%
SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the MOST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4196% → 94%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
4.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Harden,T.J. rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU47, End Of Play PENALTY SMU Personal Foul 15 yards from MSU47 to SMU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 25
OWN 38
+37
4.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Cooper for 37 yds to the MOST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
4.5%
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds to the MOST 20Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-15
4.5%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MOST 32Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 17
OPP 32
+6
4.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 6 yds to the MOST 26Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
5.6%
Sam Keltner 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:586% → 9%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+32
5.5%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 32 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
5.7%
Shomari Lawrence run for 9 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+12
5.7%
Shomari Lawrence run for 12 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
5.7%
Shomari Lawrence run for 7 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+5
5.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Clark,Jacob rush left for 1 yard loss to the SMU15, out of bounds at SMU15 PENALTY SMU Offside (Robertson,Cameron) 5 yards from SMU14 to SMU09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
5.7%
Ramone Green Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
8.6%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 9 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3692% → 90%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
8.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Yamir KnightSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
8.1%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+8
8.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Cooper for 8 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
8.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Cooper for 7 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-1
7.9%
T.J. Harden run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
8.1%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
10.1%
Wade McSparron punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dash Luke at the MOST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:2610% → 11%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
10.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 21 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
10.6%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
10.6%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
10.4%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ronnel JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
11.2%
Anthony Frederique punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:5989% → 86%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
11.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 12 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
11.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 18 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
11.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 17 yds to the MOST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
10.8%
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds to the MOST 38Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
10.7%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the MOST 38Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-10
10.9%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Caleb Dietlin for a loss of 10 yards to the MOST 48Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
14.5%
Wade McSparron punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MOST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:5914% → 17%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
14.1%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jeron Askren for 5 yds to the MOST 25Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
14.2%
Shomari Lawrence run for 3 yds to the MOST 28Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+15
14.3%
Shotgun Clark,Jacob pass incomplete short middle to Robinson,Jmariyae thrown to MSU30 PENALTY SMU Roughing The Passer (M'ba,Jeffrey) 15 yards from MSU28 to MSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
15.4%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU43 to MSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+12
15.0%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Makai Cope for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 3
50
+2
15.6%
Shomari Lawrence run for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
15.1%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Jeron AskrenSimilar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
16.7%
Anthony Frederique punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 3:5483% → 86%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
17.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 14 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
16.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jalen CooperSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
16.7%
Dramekco Green run for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+13
16.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 13 yds to the MOST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
16.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jalen CooperSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
16.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Carterrious BrownSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+13
18.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 13 yds to the MOST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
17.0%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the MOST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
16.8%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MOST 18Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
16.8%
T.J. Harden run for 8 yds to the MOST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
16.8%
T.J. Harden run for 4 yds to the MOST 6Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
13.9%
Dramekco Green run for 6 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:5017% → 18%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
16.9%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 20 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Abdul Muhammad) to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
18.7%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Dash LukeSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
18.6%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Shomari Lawrence for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-6
18.0%
Jacob Clark sacked by Justin Medlock for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
17.7%
Stewart McDonald punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:1982% → 90%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
18.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 8 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
17.3%
Derrick McFall run for 5 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
17.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Cooper for 13 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jalen CooperSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
16.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Matthew HibnerSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+42
17.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 30 yds to the MOST 24 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, Personal Foul (Caleb Dietlin) to the MOST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
14.8%
T.J. Harden run for 7 yds to the MOST 5Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
9.8%
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:3311% → 14%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.1%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Shomari Lawrence for 5 yds to the MOST 30Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
11.3%
Jacob Clark run for 7 yds to the MOST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
11.5%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Shomari LawrenceSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
11.4%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Shomari Lawrence for 12 yds to the MOST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
12.5%
Jacob Clark pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
12.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 8 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+25
14.4%
Yousef Obeid 60 yd FG MISSED , Ahmaad Moses return for 25 yds to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 15INT
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:3314% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
13.8%
Jmariyae Robinson run for 21 yds to the MOST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
15.2%
Shomari Lawrence run for 1 yd to the MOST 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+22
15.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 22 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
16.5%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
16.5%
Reggie Branch II run for 3 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
15.5%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ronnel JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+15
14.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Clark,Jacob pass intercepted by Nwokobia,Isaiah at SMU05 Nwokobia,Isaiah return 23 yards to the SMU28, End Of Play PENALTY SMU Pass Interference 15 yards from SMU25 to SMU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
16.5%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 1 yd to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
16.5%
No Huddle Clark,Jacob pass incomplete short right to Askren,Jeron thrown to SMU10 PENALTY SMU Offside (Smith,Isaiah) 5 yards from SMU09 to SMU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
16.5%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
19.8%
Jacob Clark pass intercepted, touchback. Jaelyn Davis-Robinson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:5883% → 83%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Chris Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
16.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jennings,Kevin pass incomplete short right to Hibner,Matthew thrown to SMU30 broken up by Neal,Maguire PENALTY MSU Offside (Townley,Davon) 5 yards from SMU20 to SMU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
16.3%
T.J. Harden run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+11
16.8%
T.J. Harden run for 11 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
15.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-5
15.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Dramekco rush left for 9 yards gain to the MSU47 (Ford,Christian) PENALTY SMU Illegal Formation 5 yards from SMU44 to SMU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
15.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+6
16.4%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
16.7%
Wade McSparron punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dash Luke at the MOST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0818% → 18%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
18.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 27 yds to the MOST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
21.1%
Shomari Lawrence run for 2 yds to the MOST 49Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-7
21.1%
Jacob Clark sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MOST 42Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
17.9%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Shomari LawrenceSimilar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 15
OWN 42
+24
18.0%
Stewart McDonald punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MOST 46 for a 1ST down , Yamir Knight returns for 24 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, Personal Foul (Mitch Weisenborn) to the MOST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:1885% → 90%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
14.9%
T.J. Harden run for 6 yds to the MOST 40Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
14.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jalen Cooper for 3 yds to the MOST 37Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+37
9.0%
T.J. Harden run for 37 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
10.0%
PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (Brantley,Tim) 15 yards from SMU35 to SMU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:5610% → 11%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
9.8%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 23 yds to the MOST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
11.0%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 44Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+1
10.5%
Jacob Clark run for 1 yd to the MOST 45Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+6
10.1%
Jacob Clark run for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+4
10.5%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Makai Cope for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:0291% → 98%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
8.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 6 yds to the MOST 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+29
8.7%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 29 yds to the MOST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
8.4%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Williams,PJ) 5 yards from MSU20 to MSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
8.5%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the MOST 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+18
8.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Yamir Knight for 18 yds to the MOST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 7 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:584% → 3%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
3.6%
Jacob Clark sacked by Jeffrey M'ba for a loss of 6 yards to the MOST 19Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-7
3.5%
Jacob Clark sacked by Jeffrey M'ba for a loss of 7 yards to the MOST 12Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+15
3.5%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (William Nettles) to the MOST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
3.7%
Shomari Lawrence run for 2 yds to the MOST 38Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
3.7%
Ramone Green Jr. run for no gain to the MOST 38Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-8
3.7%
Jacob Clark sacked by Cameron Robertson for a loss of 8 yards to the MOST 30Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+18
2.9%
Stewart McDonald punt for 47 yds , Yamir Knight returns for 18 yds to the SMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3598% → 98%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Link RhodesSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
2.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Carterrious Brown for 6 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
1.9%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
2.0%
Wade McSparron punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:263% → 2%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
2.9%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Makai Cope for 10 yds to the MOST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
3.0%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 29Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
2.9%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Tristian GardnerSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
2.9%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Tristian GardnerSimilar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
2.4%
Stewart McDonald punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jalen Cooper at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 17 yds · 4:2998% → 99%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
1.7%
Dramekco Green run for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
1.7%
Dramekco Green run for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+4
1.7%
Dramekco Green run for 4 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
1.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Dramekco Green for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+5
1.7%
Shotgun Jennings,Kevin pass incomplete deep right to Cooper,Jalen thrown to MSU40 PENALTY MSU Offside (Barnes,Dezmond) 5 yards from SMU27 to SMU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+15
1.7%
Missouri State Penalty, Personal Foul (Kanye Young) to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
1.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 2 yds to the MOST 49Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-5
1.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 5 yds to the SMU 44 SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (RJ Maryland) to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+1
1.5%
Dramekco Green run for 1 yd to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 12
OWN 47
-13
0.9%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Jared Lloyd for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 25
OWN 34
0
0.9%
Wade McSparron punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dash Luke at the MOST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 25INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:431% → 1%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
1.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Reggie Branch II for 5 yds to the MOST 28Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+19
1.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to James BlackStrain for 19 yds to the MOST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
1.4%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ronnel JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
1.3%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ronnel JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
1.4%
Jacob Clark pass intercepted William Nettles return for no gain to the SMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
0.8%
Dramekco Green run for 8 yds to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:58
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 7 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
-6.4
TD · Q3 3:03
T.J. Harden run for 37 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q2 0:33
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com