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VT

Virginia Tech 7 at Virginia 27

UVA
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:08 · (11:18) #25 N.Veltsistas punt 47 yards to the VAT49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense+13.5Pregame prior+8.9Score differential+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:26: (07:26) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson) — UVA win probability +2.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:33: (04:35) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor pass complete short middle to #0 S.Ennis caught at VAT00, for 1 yard to the VAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:33 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson) — UVA win probability +7.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:28: (07:31) #41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson), clock 07:28 — UVA win probability +3.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:46: (00:45) Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush right for 8 yards gain to the VAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:46 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson) — UVA win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:21: (04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short left to #15 S.Peterkin caught at VAT47, for 57 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:21, 1ST DOWN #17 J.Love kick attempt good (H: #25 N.Veltsistas, LS: #96 C.Epling) — VT win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 3:48VT 4th & 1 at UVA 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:47VT 4th & 10 at UVA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:51UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:24VT 4th & 16 at VT 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:36UVA 4th & 23 at UVA 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:37VT 4th & 8 at VT 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:36VT 4th & 2 at VT 28, down 14
    Close callPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:26UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:47VT 4th & 1 at VT 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:43UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:08VT 4th & 12 at VT 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:24UVA 4th & 4 at VT 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:28UVA 4th & 4 at VT 10, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.7%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−6.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:48VT 4th & 2 at VT 33, down 17
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:54VT 4th & 8 at VT 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:07UVA 4th & 1 at VT 14, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:24UVA 4th & 5 at VT 15, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:21VT 4th & 2 at VT 43, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:26UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:33UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:46UVA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1INT
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:1130% → 31%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
70.3%
(14:56) Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VAT10 (#52 D.Rickert)Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+2
70.2%
(14:22) Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush left for 2 yards gain to the VAT12 (#91 J.Hammond; #1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+13
70.1%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 13 yards gain to the VAT25 (#4 C.Charles; #52 D.Rickert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.0%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush right for 1 yard gain to the VAT26 (#14 F.Camac)Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
69.9%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short right to #11 I.Spencer caught at VAT31, for 13 yards to the VAT39 (#19 E.Karnley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
69.6%
(11:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush left for 3 yards gain to the VAT42 (#1 J.Jackson; #30 E.Minter)Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
69.4%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush left for 4 yards gain to the VAT46 (#14 F.Camac; #1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-4
69.3%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass intercepted by #11 M.Marcellus at VAT50 broken up by #14 F.Camac #11 M.Marcellus return 4 yards to the VAT46, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:0870% → 73%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
70.3%
(10:37) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VAT43 (#16 N.Chambers)Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+1
70.2%
(10:03) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #6 C.Ross caught at VAT47, for 1 yard to the VAT42 (#3 K.Spencer)Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+26
70.1%
(09:24) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete deep middle to #11 T.Harris caught at VAT22, for 26 yards to the VAT16 (#18 I.Cash), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
70.3%
(08:54) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush left for 1 yard loss to the VAT17 (#3 K.Spencer; #16 N.Chambers)Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+8
70.2%
(08:17) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Ross thrown to VAT00 PENALTY VAT Holding (#18 I.Cash) 8 yards from VAT17 to VAT09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
70.2%
(08:08) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush right for 8 yards gain to the VAT01 (#23 T.Williams; #14 S.Robinson)Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.5%
(07:26) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 5:2829% → 27%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
71.4%
(07:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the VAT25 (#1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
71.2%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short right to #2 T.Heath caught at VAT23, for 3 yards to the VAT28 (#18 C.Costner)Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+31
71.5%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush left for 31 yards gain to the UVA41 (#27 D.Neal), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
70.7%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush left for 3 yards gain to the UVA38 (#11 M.Marcellus; #90 J.Carter)Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+3
70.7%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UVA35 (#11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+3
72.1%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UVA32 (#17 M.Melton)Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+4
72.6%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA28 (#30 E.Minter; #27 D.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
71.8%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete deep left to #13 J.Hairston thrown to UVA05Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
72.0%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush right for 3 yards gain to the UVA25 (#4 C.Charles; #26 C.Hardy)Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-2
71.7%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UVA28 (#52 D.Rickert, #26 C.Hardy)Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
73.0%
(01:47) #17 J.Love field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD (H: #25 N.Veltsistas, LS: #96 C.Epling), clock 01:47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5073% → 73%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
73.1%
(01:47) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right thrown to UVA28 QB hurried by #33 B.BellSimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+13
73.0%
(01:38) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush left for 13 yards gain to the UVA41 (#9 I.Brown-Murray; #6 J.Bass), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
73.9%
(01:00) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #11 T.Harris caught at UVA38, for 2 yards loss to the UVA39 (#20 C.Woodson)Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
73.7%
(00:15) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #11 T.Harris thrown to UVA49 broken up by #9 I.Brown-MurraySimilar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 12
OWN 39
-1
73.2%
(00:11) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #11 T.Harris caught at UVA38, for 1 yard loss to the UVA38 (#22 K.Gilliam Jr.; #13 K.Copeland)Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+4
72.7%
(14:59) #38 D.Sparks punt 54 yards to the VAT08 #11 I.Spencer return 4 yards to the VAT12 (#29 C.Spence; #82 E.Wood)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:1626% → 25%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
73.7%
(14:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush middle for 5 yards gain to the VAT17 (#90 J.Carter; #27 D.Neal)Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+1
73.8%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush right for 1 yard gain to the VAT18 (#0 A.Clary; #1 J.Jackson)Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 18
-4
74.3%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones sacked for loss of 7 yards to the VAT11 (#11 M.Marcellus, #91 J.Hammond)Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+5
74.9%
(12:42) PENALTY VAT Delay Of Game (#25 N.Veltsistas) 5 yards from VAT11 to VAT06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 16
OWN 6
+41
75.4%
(12:30) #25 N.Veltsistas punt 41 yards to the VAT47 #5 K.Courtney return for loss of 1 yard to the VAT48 (#26 A.Santiago) PENALTY UVA Holding (#9 J.Robinson) 10 yards from VAT48 to UVA42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:4175% → 73%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
74.8%
(12:22) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 0 yards to the UVA42 (#3 K.Spencer)Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-4
74.5%
(11:45) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush left for 4 yards loss to the UVA38 (#3 K.Spencer; #18 I.Cash)Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+5
74.0%
PENALTY UVA False Start (#60 D.Metcalf) 5 yards from UVA38 to UVA33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 19
OWN 33
-4
73.6%
(10:56) Shotgun #4 C.Morris sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UVA29 (#33 B.Bell) PENALTY UVA Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 23
OWN 29
0
73.1%
(10:42) #38 D.Sparks punt 26 yards to the VAT45, out of bounds at VAT45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5327% → 25%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.2%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete deep left to #15 S.Peterkin thrown to UVA15Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
73.7%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush left for 2 yards gain to the VAT47 (#19 E.Karnley), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
73.8%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete deep right to #2 T.Heath thrown to UVA26 broken up by #4 C.CharlesSimilar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
74.7%
(09:45) #25 N.Veltsistas punt 53 yards to the UVA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:4674% → 84%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
74.2%
(09:35) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #11 T.Harris caught at UVA27, for 7 yards to the UVA27 (#23 T.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
74.5%
(08:59) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short left to #3 J.Taylor thrown to UVA21Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
74.0%
(08:53) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush right for 4 yards gain to the UVA31 (#22 K.Gilliam Jr.; #16 N.Chambers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
74.5%
(08:36) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UVA42 (#6 J.Bass), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
75.7%
(08:21) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UVA46 (#98 K.Huisman; #16 N.Chambers)Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+11
75.9%
(08:01) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #3 J.Taylor caught at UVA44, for 11 yards to the VAT43 (#9 I.Brown-Murray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
76.2%
(07:21) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #5 K.Courtney caught at VAT46, for 31 yards to the VAT12 (#23 T.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
76.8%
(06:40) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 5 yards gain to the VAT07 (#6 J.Bass; #13 K.Copeland)Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
77.0%
(06:03) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VAT06 (#11 T.Flowers; #20 C.Woodson)Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+5
76.6%
(05:20) Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush right for 5 yards gain to the VAT01 (#9 I.Brown-Murray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.3%
(04:35) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor pass complete short middle to #0 S.Ennis caught at VAT00, for 1 yard to the VAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:33 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4318% → 18%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
82.4%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush middle for 7 yards gain to the VAT27 (#11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
82.1%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush right for 0 yards to the VAT27 (#9 J.Robinson; #11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
83.1%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VAT28 (#4 C.Charles; #11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
81.7%
(02:40) #25 N.Veltsistas punt 50 yards to the UVA22 fair catch by #5 K.Courtney at UVA22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:0086% → 87%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
86.0%
(02:34) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #5 K.Courtney caught at UVA17, for 1 yard to the UVA23 (#18 I.Cash; #20 C.Woodson)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+9
85.8%
(01:59) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #7 J.Edrine caught at UVA29, for 9 yards to the UVA32 (#33 B.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.9%
(01:53) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #7 J.Edrine thrown to UVA45 broken up by #9 I.Brown-MurraySimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
86.8%
(01:47) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #5 K.Courtney caught at UVA29, for 0 yards to the UVA32 (#20 C.Woodson; #15 B.Johnson)Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
87.1%
(01:39) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #5 K.Courtney thrown to UVA45 broken up by #18 I.CashSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+5
86.7%
(01:34) #38 D.Sparks punt 46 yards to the VAT22 #11 I.Spencer return 5 yards to the VAT27 (#29 C.Spence)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2617% → 16%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
82.7%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short right to #87 H.Saint Germain caught at VAT31, for 5 yards to the VAT32 (#4 C.Charles)Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
82.5%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short middle to #2 T.Heath thrown to VAT38Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+4
82.8%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VAT36 (#0 A.Clary; #18 C.Costner)Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+5
84.1%
(00:54) #25 N.Veltsistas punt 52 yards to the UVA12 #5 K.Courtney return 5 yards to the UVA17 (#11 T.Flowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2089% → 88%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
88.7%
(00:46) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #3 J.Taylor caught at UVA17, for 12 yards to the UVA29 (#20 C.Woodson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
88.7%
(00:38) Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush right for 0 yards to the UVA29 (#20 C.Woodson), out of bounds PENALTY UVA Holding (#66 A.Reisig) 10 yards from UVA29 to UVA19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+4
87.9%
(00:31) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #5 K.Courtney caught at UVA23, for 4 yards to the UVA23, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1285% → 85%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
84.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush left for 2 yards loss to the UVA23 (#33 B.Bell)Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+16
85.1%
(14:25) Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush right for 16 yards gain to the UVA39, out of bounds at UVA39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
85.8%
(13:58) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #82 E.Wood thrown to VAT43. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (13:58) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #82 E.Wood caught at VAT43, for 18 yards to the VAT43, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
85.9%
(13:35) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush right for 1 yard gain to the UVA40 (#94 E.Fall)Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
85.7%
(12:58) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #11 T.Harris thrown to UVA46Similar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+3
84.8%
(12:53) #38 D.Sparks punt 55 yards to the VAT05 #11 I.Spencer return 23 yards to the VAT28 (#68 J.Witmer), out of bounds PENALTY VAT Illegal Block in Back (#28 K.Harrell) 4 yards from VAT08 to VAT04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3315% → 13%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
85.5%
PENALTY VAT False Start (#76 A.Lynch) 2 yards from VAT04 to VAT02. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 12
OWN 2
-1
85.6%
(12:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush middle for 1 yard loss to the VAT01 (#11 M.Marcellus; #52 D.Rickert)Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 13
OWN 1
+1
86.1%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush left for 1 yard gain to the VAT02 (#91 J.Hammond; #9 J.Robinson)Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 12
OWN 2
0
86.4%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #11 I.Spencer thrown to VAT20 PENALTY VAT Ineligible Downfield on Pass declinedSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 12
OWN 2
0
86.6%
(11:18) #25 N.Veltsistas punt 47 yards to the VAT49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 3:3487% → 92%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
87.4%
(11:07) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VAT46 (#33 B.Bell; #24 J.Keller)Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
87.4%
(10:43) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VAT42 (#20 C.Woodson)Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+7
87.0%
(10:25) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #3 J.Taylor caught at VAT42, for 7 yards to the VAT35 (#24 J.Keller), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.1%
(10:00) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep left to #11 T.Harris thrown to VAT05Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
88.1%
(09:54) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 6 yards gain to the VAT29 (#24 J.Keller)Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
87.8%
(09:37) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #5 K.Courtney thrown to VAT23Similar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+13
87.1%
(09:34) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #11 T.Harris caught at VAT29, for 13 yards to the VAT16 (#18 I.Cash), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
88.5%
(08:48) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #0 S.Ennis thrown to VAT00Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
88.7%
(08:43) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 5 yards gain to the VAT11 (#24 J.Keller; #94 E.Fall)Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+1
88.5%
(08:08) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 1 yard gain to the VAT10 (#98 K.Huisman)Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
92.2%
(07:31) #41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson), clock 07:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:359% → 9%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #11 I.Spencer thrown to VAT35Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.7%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush left for 3 yards gain to the VAT28 (#11 M.Marcellus; #90 J.Carter)Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
91.2%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush right for 5 yards gain to the VAT33 (#11 M.Marcellus)Similar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
91.3%
(05:52) #25 N.Veltsistas punt 41 yards to the UVA26 fair catch by #5 K.Courtney at UVA26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:5694% → 99%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
93.8%
(05:46) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #5 K.Courtney caught at UVA25, for 10 yards to the UVA36 (#7 S.Covil Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
94.2%
(05:14) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #3 J.Taylor caught at UVA40, for 4 yards to the UVA40 (#16 N.Chambers)Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
94.5%
(04:56) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UVA42 (#42 A.Stevens; #3 K.Spencer)Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+11
94.4%
(04:23) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #0 S.Ennis caught at UVA48, for 11 yards to the VAT47 (#6 J.Bass), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
94.7%
(03:51) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep left to #11 T.Harris thrown to VAT07 broken up by #23 T.WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
94.7%
(03:47) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush right for 4 yards gain to the VAT43 (#16 N.Chambers; #98 K.Huisman)Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+7
94.8%
(03:04) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #82 E.Wood caught at VAT37, for 7 yards to the VAT36 (#15 B.Johnson; #23 T.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
95.3%
(02:21) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short middle to #89 J.Rogers caught at VAT22, for 17 yards to the VAT19 (#11 T.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
95.5%
(01:45) Shotgun #5 K.Courtney rush left for 9 yards gain to the VAT10 (#97 I.Hickman)Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
95.6%
(01:24) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush left for 2 yards gain to the VAT08 (#31 J.Abbey; #13 K.Copeland), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY VAT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting UVA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsettingSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.6%
(00:52) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short left to #15 D.Newton-Short thrown to VAT00 QB hurried by #13 K.CopelandSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.9%
(00:45) Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush right for 8 yards gain to the VAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:46 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:412% → 2%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.1%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VAT27 (#26 C.Hardy)Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
98.3%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short left to #15 S.Peterkin thrown to VAT30 QB hurried by #17 M.MeltonSimilar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.4%
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete deep middle to #15 S.Peterkin thrown to UVA28Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.4%
(14:58) #25 N.Veltsistas punt 40 yards to the UVA33 fair catch by #5 K.Courtney at UVA33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 53 yds · 4:4099% → 99%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.0%
(14:53) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush left for 1 yard gain to the UVA34 (#24 J.Keller)Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
99.1%
(14:14) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UVA39 (#11 T.Flowers)Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+10
99.2%
(13:36) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #7 J.Edrine caught at UVA43, for 10 yards to the UVA49 (#11 T.Flowers; #18 I.Cash), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.2%
(13:12) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VAT48 (#94 E.Fall; #98 K.Huisman)Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
99.2%
(12:49) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short right to #11 T.Harris thrown to VAT42Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+15
99.2%
(12:47) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep right to #7 J.Edrine thrown to VAT19 PENALTY VAT Pass Interference (#18 I.Cash) 15 yards from VAT48 to VAT33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
99.3%
(12:41) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 1 yard gain to the VAT32 (#99 E.Laws)Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+9
99.3%
(12:17) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 9 yards gain to the VAT23 (#42 A.Stevens), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
99.3%
(11:58) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short left to #5 K.Courtney caught at VAT26, for 4 yards to the VAT19 (#18 I.Cash), out of bounds PENALTY UVA Holding (#84 I.Robinson) 10 yards from VAT19 to VAT29Similar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 16
OPP 29
0
99.3%
(11:35) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #0 S.Ennis thrown to VAT10 broken up by #9 I.Brown-MurraySimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+6
99.3%
(11:26) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 6 yards gain to the VAT23 (#24 J.Keller)Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+9
99.4%
(10:53) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush left for 9 yards gain to the VAT14 (#20 C.Woodson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-1
99.3%
(10:10) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 1 yard loss to the VAT15 (#94 E.Fall), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
98.8%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush left for 2 yards gain to the VAT17 (#0 A.Clary; #18 C.Costner)Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
98.9%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #2 T.Heath thrown to VAT20Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-1
98.9%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass intercepted by #0 A.Clary at VAT38 QB hurried by #26 C.Hardy #0 A.Clary return 1 yard to the VAT37 (#15 S.Peterkin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
99.6%
(09:13) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 7 yards gain to the VAT30 (#3 K.Spencer)Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+10
99.6%
(08:44) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush right for 10 yards gain to the VAT20 (#9 I.Brown-Murray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.6%
(08:13) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 0 yards to the VAT20 (#99 E.Laws; #42 A.Stevens)Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
99.7%
(07:40) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VAT16 (#3 K.Spencer; #42 A.Stevens)Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+1
99.7%
(07:04) Shotgun #21 H.Waylee rush left for 1 yard gain to the VAT15 (#4 K.Williams; #15 B.Johnson)Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
99.9%
(06:26) #41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson), clock 06:24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:570% → 1%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush left for 10 yards gain to the VAT35 (#27 D.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.9%
(05:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Seldon rush right for 9 yards gain to the VAT44 (#6 C.Moore; #30 E.Minter)Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-1
99.9%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush left for 1 yard loss to the VAT43 (#18 C.Costner)Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
99.9%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #88 Z.Wimbush thrown to VAT46 broken up by #30 E.MinterSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+57
99.5%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short left to #15 S.Peterkin caught at VAT47, for 57 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:21, 1ST DOWN #17 J.Love kick attempt good (H: #25 N.Veltsistas, LS: #96 C.Epling)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23END OF GAME
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:36100% → 100%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
(04:19) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush left for 5 yards gain to the UVA43 (#44 B.Clatterbaugh)Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
(03:36) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UVA45 (#9 I.Brown-Murray; #15 B.Johnson)Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
(02:52) Shotgun #10 D.Kaelin rush right for 6 yards gain to the VAT49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
99.9%
(02:06) Shotgun #10 D.Kaelin rush left for 13 yards gain to the VAT36 (#15 B.Johnson; #16 N.Chambers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
99.9%
(01:57) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 7 yards gain to the VAT29 (#53 W.Johnson)Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+6
99.9%
(01:09) Shotgun #25 X.Davis rush middle for 6 yards gain to the VAT23 (#16 N.Chambers; #53 W.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
99.9%
(00:31) Kneel down by Virginia at VAT25 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:33
(04:35) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor pass complete short middle to #0 S.Ennis caught at VAT00, for 1 yard to the VAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:33 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson)
+7.8
FG · Q3 7:28
(07:31) #41 W.Bettridge field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson), clock 07:28
+3.7
TD · Q3 0:46
(00:45) Shotgun #4 C.Morris rush right for 8 yards gain to the VAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:46 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com