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MIA

Miami 38 at Pittsburgh 7

PITT
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:11 · (13:19) #91 C.Junko punt 51 yards to the Miami37 #10 M.Toney return 0 yards to the Miami37, End Of Play
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Pregame prior−14.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:20: (14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #88 J.Holmes caught at Miami05, for 6 yards to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:20 #93 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #91 C.Junko, LS: #48 N.Crawford) — PITT win probability +3.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:07: (11:07) Shotgun #10 M.Toney pass complete short right to #9 E.Lofton caught at Pitt00, for 9 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:07 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +4.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:55: (01:59) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #10 M.Toney caught at Pitt00, for 22 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +8.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:29: (09:33) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:29 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +10.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:28: (04:28) #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #6 C.Brown caught at Pitt07, for 9 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:28 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +6.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:11PITT 4th & 23 at PITT 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30MIA 4th & 20 at MIA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:30PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:31MIA 4th & 5 at PITT 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:58PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:10PITT 4th & 11 at MIA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:24PITT 4th & 21 at PITT 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−1.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:37PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:07PITT 4th & 3 at MIA 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:33MIA 4th & 4 at PITT 39, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:33PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 30, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:58PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 14:20PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:07MIA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:55MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:29MIA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:28MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:41MIA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:4235% → 36%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
35.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel sacked for loss of 10 yards to the Pitt15 (#99 A.Moten)Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
35.2%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Pitt18 (#5 J.Scott; #31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-6
35.4%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #25 J.Turner caught at Pitt13, for 6 yards loss to the Pitt12 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
35.5%
(13:19) #91 C.Junko punt 51 yards to the Miami37 #10 M.Toney return 0 yards to the Miami37, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:3364% → 63%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
35.6%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at Miami45, for 8 yards to the Miami45 (#15 R.Battle), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
35.7%
(12:38) Shotgun #10 M.Toney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Miami48 (#7 J.McIntyre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
35.9%
(11:55) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Pitt47 (#7 J.McIntyre)Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
36.0%
(11:22) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Marion thrown to Pitt39Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-15
36.1%
(11:19) Shotgun #11 C.Beck sacked for loss of 15 yards to the Miami38 (#2 I.Neal)Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 20
OWN 38
0
36.9%
(10:34) #94 D.Joyce punt 42 yards to the Pitt20 fair catch by #2 K.Johnson at Pitt20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5437% → 37%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
36.8%
(10:29) Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush right for 1 yard gain to the Pitt21 (#3 A.Mesidor; #31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
37.0%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #88 J.Holmes caught at Pitt22, for 6 yards to the Pitt27 (#2 D.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-6
37.1%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel sacked for loss of 6 yards to the Pitt21 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
36.9%
(08:34) #91 C.Junko punt 43 yards to the Miami36 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at Miami36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:5963% → 62%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
37.1%
PENALTY Pitt Delay Of Game (#0 B.Lovelace) 5 yards from Miami36 to Miami41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+6
36.8%
(08:30) Shotgun #10 M.Toney rush left for 6 yards gain to the Miami47 (#9 K.Louis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
37.0%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami50, for 9 yards to the Pitt44 (#23 K.Bains)Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+4
36.8%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the Pitt40 (#0 B.Lovelace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
37.0%
(07:03) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Pitt42 (#2 I.Neal; #11 N.James)Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+12
37.5%
(06:27) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at Pitt45, for 12 yards to the Pitt30 (#2 I.Neal), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Pitt Personal Foul (#23 K.Bains) 15 yards from Pitt30 to Pitt15, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
37.1%
(05:55) Shotgun #10 M.Toney pass incomplete short middle to #3 J.Moore thrown to Pitt00 broken up by #21 S.HarrisonSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
37.2%
(05:41) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush left for 0 yards to the Pitt15 (#3 R.Biles; #56 J.Moore)Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+5
37.8%
(05:12) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #0 K.Marion caught at Pitt14, for 5 yards to the Pitt10 (#9 K.Louis)Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+29
37.8%
(04:31) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 04:31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:0738% → 45%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.6%
(04:29) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Williams Jr. thrown to Pitt29 broken up by #13 B.FitzgeraldSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.5%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #5 R.Williams Jr. caught at Pitt31, for 9 yards to the Pitt34 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
38.0%
(04:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Williams Jr. thrown to Pitt34 QB hurried by #13 B.FitzgeraldSimilar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
37.3%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Pitt35 (#4 R.Bain Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.1%
(03:11) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete deep middle to #5 R.Williams Jr. thrown to Miami35 QB hurried by #3 A.MesidorSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
38.1%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Pitt41 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
38.8%
PENALTY Pitt False Start 5 yards from Pitt41 to Pitt36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+13
37.9%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Goff rush right for 13 yards gain to the Pitt49 (#7 Z.Poyser; #13 B.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+40
39.6%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep left to #3 C.Hicks caught at Miami12, for 40 yards to the Miami11 (#24 E.O'Connor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
40.6%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short middle to #2 K.Johnson thrown to Miami00 broken up by #24 E.O'ConnorSimilar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
40.6%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Goff rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Miami10 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+9
40.2%
(00:20) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #8 J.Goff caught at Miami15, for 9 yards to the Miami01 QB hurried by #10 R.Aguirre, Jr. (#8 J.Thomas; #6 X.Lucas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
41.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush middle for 5 yards loss to the Miami06 fumbled by #6 M.Heintschel at Miami05 recovered by Pitt #6 M.Heintschel at Miami06, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
44.9%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #88 J.Holmes caught at Miami05, for 6 yards to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:20 #93 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #91 C.Junko, LS: #48 N.Crawford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:0758% → 63%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
41.8%
PENALTY Miami False Start (#73 A.Cooper) 5 yards from Miami44 to Miami39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+9
42.8%
(14:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami40, for 9 yards to the Miami48 (#21 S.Harrison), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
41.8%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #87 A.Bauman caught at Miami50, for 2 yards to the Miami50 (#0 B.Lovelace; #9 K.Louis)Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 4
50
+10
42.1%
(13:26) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #1 J.Trader caught at Pitt43, for 10 yards to the Pitt40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
42.0%
(13:07) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at Pitt21, for 19 yards to the Pitt21, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
41.4%
(12:23) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Pitt13 (#23 K.Bains)Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+4
41.7%
(11:45) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Pitt09 (#3 R.Biles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
36.9%
(11:07) Shotgun #10 M.Toney pass complete short right to #9 E.Lofton caught at Pitt00, for 9 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:07 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:5140% → 38%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.7%
(11:06) Shotgun #8 J.Goff rush middle for 0 yards to the Pitt25 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+38
39.7%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep middle to #5 R.Williams Jr. caught at Miami37, for 38 yards to the Miami37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
42.3%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (#70 R.Baer) 5 yards from Miami37 to Miami42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+4
40.1%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #2 K.Johnson caught at Miami42, for 4 yards to the Miami38 (#8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+9
41.4%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #5 R.Williams Jr. caught at Miami29, for 9 yards to the Miami29, out of bounds at Miami29Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+5
41.4%
PENALTY Miami Offside (#5 J.Scott) 5 yards from Miami29 to Miami24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
41.6%
(08:11) Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush middle for 0 yards to the Miami24 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-4
41.6%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel sacked for loss of 7 yards to the Miami31 (#99 A.Moten, #4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 17
OPP 31
+6
39.0%
(06:45) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #25 J.Turner caught at Miami34, for 6 yards to the Miami25 (#6 X.Lucas), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
38.0%
(06:12) #93 T.Butkowski field goal attempt from 43 yards NO GOOD (H: #91 C.Junko, LS: #48 N.Crawford), clock 06:10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0662% → 74%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.1%
(06:08) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Miami32 (#0 B.Lovelace; #9 K.Louis)Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
36.9%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #10 M.Toney thrown to Miami35Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
37.9%
(05:41) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami37, for 5 yards to the Miami37 (#23 K.Bains), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
37.1%
(05:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 8 yards gain to the Miami45 (#0 B.Lovelace)Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
36.3%
(04:38) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the Miami49 (#0 B.Lovelace; #4 J.Whittington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
36.2%
(03:57) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush left for 6 yards gain to the Pitt45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+23
35.7%
(03:17) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #87 A.Bauman caught at Pitt43, for 23 yards to the Pitt22 (#9 K.Louis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
34.6%
(02:28) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the Pitt22 (#12 C.Brookins; #95 F.Brewu)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
25.9%
(01:59) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #10 M.Toney caught at Pitt00, for 22 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · -12 yds · 1:1428% → 27%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.7%
(01:54) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Pitt33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
28.6%
(01:33) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #5 R.Williams Jr. caught at Pitt40, for 7 yards to the Pitt40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
28.7%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #25 J.Turner caught at Pitt43, for 3 yards to the Pitt43 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
29.1%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete deep right to #5 R.Williams Jr. thrown to Miami25 PENALTY Pitt Pass Interference (#5 R.Williams Jr.) 15 yards from Pitt43 to Pitt28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 22
OWN 28
-10
27.3%
(00:44) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel sacked for loss of 10 yards to the Pitt18 (#13 B.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 32
OWN 18
+5
26.4%
(00:38) PENALTY Pitt False Start (#78 J.Persi) 5 yards from Pitt18 to Pitt13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 37
OWN 13
+16
27.4%
(00:38) Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush middle for 16 yards gain to the Pitt29 (#6 X.Lucas)Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 21
OWN 29
+5
27.0%
(00:31) #91 C.Junko punt 52 yards to the Miami19 #10 M.Toney return 5 yards to the Miami24 (#0 B.Lovelace)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
28.3%
(00:22) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush right for 1 yard loss to the Miami23 (#0 B.Lovelace)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1472% → 87%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.2%
(14:52) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush right for 7 yards gain to the Miami32 (#2 I.Neal)Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
27.5%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Miami38 (#7 J.McIntyre; #95 F.Brewu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
26.7%
(13:55) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush right for 1 yard gain to the Miami39, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+33
26.1%
(13:21) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #87 A.Bauman caught at Miami45, for 33 yards to the Pitt28 (#7 J.McIntyre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-9
25.1%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck sacked for loss of 9 yards to the Pitt37 (#15 R.Battle)Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+8
25.7%
(11:51) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at Pitt39, for 8 yards to the Pitt29 (#7 J.McIntyre; #45 J.Zelinsky) PENALTY Pitt UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#8 T.Lynum) 15 yards from Pitt29 to Pitt14, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
24.9%
PENALTY Miami False Start (#70 M.Bell) 5 yards from Pitt14 to Pitt19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+4
25.0%
(11:16) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at Pitt23, for 4 yards to the Pitt15 (#3 R.Biles; #2 I.Neal)Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
24.9%
(10:30) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #87 A.Bauman thrown to Pitt01Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+8
25.6%
(10:26) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Marion thrown to Pitt02 broken up by #21 S.Harrison, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Pitt UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#21 S.Harrison) 8 yards from Pitt15 to Pitt07, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
24.7%
(10:22) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the Pitt04 (#7 J.McIntyre)Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
24.5%
(09:42) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. pass incomplete short left to #11 C.Beck thrown to Pitt06Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.0%
(09:33) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:29 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4116% → 15%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
16.0%
(09:22) Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush right for 2 yards loss to the Pitt15 (#5 J.Scott)Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+1
15.5%
(08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #25 J.Turner caught at Pitt13, for 1 yard to the Pitt16 (#8 J.Thomas; #5 J.Scott), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+7
15.1%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush right for 7 yards gain to the Pitt23 (#12 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
14.9%
(07:41) #91 C.Junko punt 36 yards to the Miami41 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at Miami41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:5987% → 97%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+38
12.6%
(07:36) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 38 yards gain to the Pitt21 (#9 K.Louis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
11.2%
(06:52) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at Pitt20, for 5 yards to the Pitt16 (#12 C.Brookins)Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+12
10.9%
(06:04) Shotgun #10 M.Toney rush right for 12 yards gain to the Pitt04 (#9 K.Louis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
10.7%
(05:26) #6 C.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Pitt00, End Of Play PENALTY Miami Helping the Runner (#78 M.McCoy) 5 yards from Pitt00 to Pitt05Similar
Q3 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
9.9%
(04:28) #6 C.Brown rush middle for 4 yards loss to the Pitt09 (#3 R.Biles; #15 R.Battle)Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
3.2%
(04:28) #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #6 C.Brown caught at Pitt07, for 9 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:28 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:185% → 4%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.5%
(04:26) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short middle to #11 C.Lee thrown to Pitt30Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.5%
(04:23) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #3 C.Hicks caught at Pitt29, for 4 yards to the Pitt29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+31
4.3%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #11 C.Lee caught at Pitt40, for 31 yards to the Miami40 QB hurried by #13 B.Fitzgerald and #18 A.Blount (#7 Z.Poyser), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
4.6%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Miami38 (#3 A.Mesidor)Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
4.5%
(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #80 B.Yates pass incomplete short right to #82 M.Thomas thrown to Miami20Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+5
4.4%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush left for 5 yards gain to the Miami33 (#12 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+2
4.2%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #88 J.Holmes caught at Miami33, for 2 yards to the Miami31 fumbled by #88 J.Holmes at Miami31 forced by #6 X.Lucas, out of bounds at Miami31, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2797% → 98%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
3.0%
(02:05) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 1 yard loss to the Miami30 (#95 F.Brewu)Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+15
3.0%
(01:29) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep right to #15 D.Upshaw thrown to Pitt47 broken up by #21 S.Harrison PENALTY Pitt Pass Interference (#21 S.Harrison) 15 yards from Miami30 to Miami45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
2.7%
(01:23) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami46, for 4 yards to the Miami49 (#12 C.Brookins)Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+6
2.6%
(00:43) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 6 yards gain to the Pitt45 (#3 R.Biles; #0 B.Lovelace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
2.4%
(14:54) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Pitt40 (#9 K.Louis)Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
2.2%
(14:16) Shotgun #10 M.Toney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Pitt39 (#0 B.Lovelace)Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
2.2%
(13:44) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep right to #10 M.Toney thrown to Pitt10 QB hurried by #9 K.LouisSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
2.5%
(13:39) #94 D.Joyce punt 38 yards to the Pitt01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:572% → 2%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
2.4%
(13:30) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short middle to #87 J.Overman thrown to Pitt05Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+10
2.4%
(13:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #87 J.Overman caught at Pitt08, for 10 yards to the Pitt11 (#31 W.Bissainthe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
2.4%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Pitt15 (#5 J.Scott)Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+8
2.4%
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short right to #11 C.Lee thrown to Pitt23 broken up by #2 D.Brown, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Miami Pass Interference (#2 D.Brown) 8 yards from Pitt15 to Pitt23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
2.4%
(12:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete deep left to #5 R.Williams Jr. thrown to Pitt45Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
2.3%
(12:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #25 J.Turner caught at Pitt27, for 5 yards to the Pitt28 (#8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+2
2.3%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #25 J.Turner caught at Pitt29, for 2 yards to the Pitt30 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
2.2%
(11:36) #91 C.Junko punt 35 yards to the Miami35 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at Miami35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17INT
9 plays · 46 yds · 5:0198% → 99%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
1.9%
(11:32) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami30, for 11 yards to the Miami46 (#7 J.McIntyre; #28 S.Lee Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
1.7%
(10:55) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Miami48 (#0 B.Lovelace)Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+10
1.6%
(10:18) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at Miami45, for 10 yards to the Pitt42 (#9 K.Louis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
1.5%
(09:35) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at Pitt43, for 8 yards to the Pitt34 (#28 S.Lee Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+2
1.4%
(09:09) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Pitt32 (#10 B.Spires; #45 J.Zelinsky), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
1.3%
(08:25) Shotgun #10 M.Toney rush left for 8 yards gain to the Pitt24 (#0 B.Lovelace), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
1.1%
(07:36) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Pitt19 (#9 K.Louis; #12 C.Brookins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
1.1%
(07:01) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the Pitt19 (#2 I.Neal)Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
0.9%
(06:18) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass intercepted by #12 C.Brookins at Pitt15, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:131% → 1%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
1.1%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete deep right to #3 C.Hicks thrown to Pitt38Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
1.0%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #28 J.Cook caught at Pitt19, for 9 yards to the Pitt24 (#1 M.Toure; #10 R.Aguirre, Jr.)Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
1.1%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #5 R.Williams Jr. caught at Pitt23, for 3 yards to the Pitt27 (#2 D.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
1.0%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass incomplete short left to #11 C.Lee thrown to Pitt39Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
1.0%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 J.Cook rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Pitt30 (#1 M.Toure; #5 J.Scott)Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+1
1.0%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #11 C.Lee caught at Pitt31, for 1 yard to the Pitt31 (#2 D.Brown; #8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
0.9%
(04:03) #91 C.Junko punt 34 yards to the Miami35 fair catch by #0 K.Marion at Miami35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1099% → 100%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.8%
(03:55) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the Miami37 (#3 R.Biles)Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
0.7%
(03:11) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #15 D.Upshaw caught at Miami32, for 11 yards to the Miami48 (#28 S.Lee Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
0.6%
(02:25) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Pitt47 (#3 R.Biles; #45 J.Zelinsky)Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
0.3%
(01:59) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the Pitt47 (#9 K.Louis; #23 K.Bains)Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+7
0.3%
(01:52) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at Pitt40, for 7 yards to the Pitt40 (#28 S.Lee Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
0.3%
(01:20) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Pitt33 (#9 K.Louis; #7 J.McIntyre)Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+33
0.1%
(00:44) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep right to #7 C.Daniels caught at Pitt00, for 33 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:41, 1ST DOWN #45 B.Auburn kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) #45 B.Auburn kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #54 M.Donovan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.0%
(00:41) Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass intercepted by #13 B.Fitzgerald at Pitt43, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21Uncategorized
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
0.1%
(00:34) Kneel down by #11 C.Beck at Pitt44 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:29
(09:33) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:29 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
-10.9
TD · Q2 1:55
(01:59) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #10 M.Toney caught at Pitt00, for 22 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
-8.1
TD · Q3 4:28
(04:28) #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #6 C.Brown caught at Pitt07, for 9 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:28 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com