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LOU

Louisville 6 at SMU 38

SMU
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.6SMU 64.4%(04:18) #36 C.Ranvier field goalattempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #93D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock04:15AWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 4:15
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:15 · (04:18) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 04:15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense+0.5Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+10.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:40: (10:46) #7 K.Jennings rush right for 2 yards gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:40 PENALTY LOU Holding declined #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett) — SMU win probability +1.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:25: (03:31) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #27 T.Harden caught at LOU03, for 5 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:25 #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett) — SMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:44: (01:46) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 01:44 — LOU win probability +4.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:48: (00:48) #95 S.Keltner field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett), clock 00:48 — SMU win probability +1.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:38: (09:42) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #8 Y.Knight caught at LOU00, for 6 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:38. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (LS: #48 M.Tribbett) #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett) — SMU win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 4:15LOU 4th & 6 at SMU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:38SMU 4th & 14 at LOU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:12LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 19, down 4
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:54LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:44LOU 4th & 11 at SMU 12, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:23LOU 4th & 11 at midfield, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:07SMU 4th & 8 at LOU 43, up 15
    Close callPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:40LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 38, down 15
    Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:48SMU 4th & 11 at LOU 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:51LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:11LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 26, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:46SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 24, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:40SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:25SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:38SMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0463% → 65%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.9%
(14:58) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #0 D.McFall caught at SMU24, for 6 yards to the SMU31 (#23 W.Bailey)Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
62.9%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #2 J.Hudson caught at SMU28, for 2 yards to the SMU33 (#50 C.Lubin; #27 J.Evans Jr.)Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
62.9%
PENALTY SMU False Start (#64 J.Bates) 5 yards from SMU33 to SMU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
62.8%
(14:00) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #88 M.Hibner caught at SMU45, for 17 yards to the SMU45, out of bounds at SMU45, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
63.0%
(13:37) Shotgun #6 C.Johnson Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the SMU50 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #27 J.Evans Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 5
50
+5
63.1%
(13:04) Shotgun #6 C.Johnson Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the LOU45 (#24 C.Gordon; #34 T.Quinn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
63.2%
(12:35) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete deep middle to #3 R.Brinson thrown to LOU02 PENALTY LOU Pass Interference (#4 J.Mack) 15 yards from LOU45 to LOU30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
63.3%
(12:28) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #2 J.Hudson caught at LOU35, for 1 yard loss to the LOU31 (#25 T.Holloway)Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+6
63.3%
(11:47) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short left to #3 R.Brinson thrown to LOU25 PENALTY LOU Pass Interference (#4 J.Mack) 6 yards from LOU31 to LOU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
63.4%
(11:46) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush left for 23 yards gain to the LOU02 (#4 J.Mack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
63.3%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush left for 0 yards to the LOU02 (#45 D.Lowry; #11 T.Capers)Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.8%
(10:46) #7 K.Jennings rush right for 2 yards gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:40 PENALTY LOU Holding declined #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 6:1936% → 36%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.2%
(10:40) Shotgun #5 C.Lacy rush right for 4 yards gain to the LOU29 (#28 B.Booker)Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
64.3%
(10:01) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush left for 10 yards gain to the LOU39 (#3 A.Moses), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
64.4%
(09:29) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at LOU45, for 13 yards to the SMU48 (#3 A.Moses), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
64.2%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 D.Adams rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SMU41 (#54 A.Kilgore)Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+3
64.3%
(08:16) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush right for 3 yards gain to the SMU38 (#1 I.Smith; #54 A.Kilgore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
64.5%
(07:38) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete short left to #46 B.Jennings caught at SMU39, for 0 yards to the SMU38 (#12 K.Chambers)Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
64.6%
(06:56) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at SMU33, for 5 yards to the SMU33 (#8 M.Barnes Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+11
64.8%
(06:09) Shotgun #13 D.Adams rush right for 11 yards gain to the SMU22 (#54 A.Kilgore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
64.3%
(05:35) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete short left to #0 C.Bell caught at SMU24, for 3 yards to the SMU19 (#28 B.Booker)Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+1
64.4%
(05:03) Shotgun #5 C.Lacy rush right for 1 yard gain to the SMU18 (#28 B.Booker; #3 A.Moses)Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
65.0%
(04:22) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass incomplete short right to #0 C.Bell thrown to SMU07Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+36
64.4%
(04:18) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 04:15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:3464% → 64%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.2%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short left to #3 R.Brinson thrown to SMU30 broken up by #25 T.HollowaySimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
64.1%
(04:05) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete deep right to #3 R.Brinson caught at SMU45, for 22 yards to the SMU47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
65.1%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush middle for 4 yards loss to the SMU43 (#95 J.Lawson)Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+16
64.6%
(03:08) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush right for 16 yards gain to the LOU41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
65.3%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Johnson Jr. rush right for 2 yards loss to the LOU43 (#11 T.Capers) PENALTY SMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#59 P.Williams) 15 yards from LOU43 to SMU42Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 27
OWN 42
+3
64.4%
(02:10) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #0 D.McFall caught at SMU37, for 3 yards to the SMU45 (#24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 24
OWN 45
+10
64.1%
(01:29) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #8 Y.Knight caught at SMU43, for 10 yards to the LOU45 (#21 D.Hutchinson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
63.9%
(00:45) #43 W.McSparron punt 33 yards to the LOU12 fair catch by #5 C.Lacy at LOU12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1735% → 34%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
65.0%
(00:37) Shotgun #13 D.Adams rush right for 4 yards gain to the LOU16 (#33 Z.Barker; #52 J.Lang)Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+2
65.1%
(00:01) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 2 yards gain to the LOU18 (#33 Z.Barker)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+5
65.5%
PENALTY LOU False Start (#70 T.Sylvester) 5 yards from LOU18 to LOU13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+6
65.7%
(14:57) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete short right to #5 C.Lacy caught at LOU10, for 6 yards to the LOU19 (#28 B.Booker)Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
66.1%
(14:18) #93 D.Chapeau punt 40 yards to the SMU41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:1971% → 76%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
70.9%
(14:12) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #6 C.Johnson Jr. caught at SMU37, for 10 yards to the LOU49, out of bounds at LOU49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
71.2%
(13:51) Shotgun #6 C.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LOU45 (#6 S.Clark)Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+12
72.7%
(13:08) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush right for 12 yards gain to the LOU33 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #4 J.Mack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
73.0%
(12:46) PENALTY SMU False Start (#2 J.Hudson) 5 yards from LOU33 to LOU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+5
72.8%
(12:23) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LOU33 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
73.6%
(11:46) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LOU29 (#21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+11
73.8%
(10:59) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #2 J.Hudson caught at LOU31, for 11 yards to the LOU18 (#4 J.Mack), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
74.7%
(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush left for 2 yards gain to the LOU16 (#24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+8
75.0%
(09:57) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LOU08 (#27 J.Evans Jr.; #4 J.Mack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
75.1%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush right for 1 yard gain to the LOU07 (#6 S.Clark)Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.5%
(08:56) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #2 J.Hudson caught at LOU00, for 7 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:53 #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5027% → 25%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.9%
(08:47) Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 0 yards to the LOU35 (#9 C.Robertson; #12 K.Chambers)Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
73.6%
(08:19) Shotgun #12 B.Allen rush left for 4 yards gain to the LOU39, out of bounds at LOU39Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-1
73.6%
(07:39) Shotgun #12 B.Allen pass complete short right to #15 A.Meeks caught at LOU38, for 1 yard loss to the LOU38 (#28 B.Booker)Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
74.9%
(07:01) #93 D.Chapeau punt 32 yards to the SMU30 fair catch by #8 Y.Knight at SMU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:2575% → 85%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
75.4%
PENALTY SMU False Start (#74 A.Chamblee) 5 yards from SMU30 to SMU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+19
75.2%
(06:53) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #2 J.Hudson caught at SMU44, for 19 yards to the SMU44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
76.3%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SMU46 (#11 T.Capers)Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
76.5%
(05:54) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #88 M.Hibner caught at SMU45, for 1 yard to the SMU47 (#12 K.Perry)Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+9
76.1%
(05:17) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #8 Y.Knight caught at LOU49, for 9 yards to the LOU44 (#12 K.Perry; #17 A.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+33
77.4%
(04:33) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #88 M.Hibner caught at LOU30, for 33 yards to the LOU11 (#24 C.Gordon), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LOU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#25 T.Holloway) 6 yards from LOU11 to LOU05, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
78.2%
(04:05) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush right for 0 yards to the LOU05 (#21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.8%
(03:31) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #27 T.Harden caught at LOU03, for 5 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:25 #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 1:3117% → 19%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
83.3%
(03:24) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete deep left to #3 D.Collins caught at LOU49, for 28 yards to the SMU47 (#7 D.Harmon), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
82.4%
(02:48) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete deep right to #0 C.Bell caught at SMU21, for 26 yards to the SMU21 (#3 A.Moses), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SMU Personal Foul (#93 K.Allen) 10 yards from SMU21 to SMU11, 1ST DOWN. #3 A.Moses injured on the playSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
81.4%
(02:17) Shotgun #13 D.Adams rush left for 1 yard gain to the SMU10 (#29 B.Miyazono)Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
80.9%
(01:56) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Lacy thrown to SMU10 broken up by #9 C.RobertsonSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 9
OPP 10
-2
82.1%
(01:55) Shotgun #13 D.Adams sacked for loss of 2 yards to the SMU12 (#1 I.Smith) PENALTY LOU Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+29
80.7%
(01:46) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 01:44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9END OF HALF
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:5784% → 85%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
84.1%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.McFall rush right for 5 yards gain to the SMU23 (#25 T.Holloway), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
84.2%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Johnson Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the SMU27 (#34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
84.1%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SMU29 (#90 R.Konga; #11 T.Capers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
84.6%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #2 J.Hudson caught at SMU36, for 14 yards to the SMU43 (#11 T.Capers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
85.1%
(00:38) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short left to #10 J.Cooper thrown to LOU46Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-12
85.1%
(00:34) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings sacked for loss of 12 yards to the SMU31 (#17 A.Green)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:2418% → 15%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.3%
(14:58) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete short right to #5 C.Lacy caught at LOU20, for 1 yard loss to the LOU24 (#12 K.Chambers; #28 B.Booker). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL UPHELD. #5 C.Lacy injured on the playSimilar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
82.5%
(14:36) #26 D.Watson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the LOU34 (#9 C.Robertson; #12 K.Chambers)Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
81.8%
(13:57) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush right for 7 yards gain to the LOU41 (#8 M.Barnes Jr.; #3 A.Moses), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
82.0%
(13:16) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete short right to #26 D.Watson caught at LOU37, for 6 yards to the LOU47, out of bounds at LOU47Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+4
81.6%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete short left to #15 A.Meeks caught at SMU49, for 4 yards to the SMU49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
81.5%
(12:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SMU45 (#12 K.Chambers)Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
82.2%
(11:49) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete short right to #85 N.Kurisky caught at SMU44, for 5 yards to the SMU40 (#3 A.Moses)Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
82.0%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #46 B.Jennings rush middle for 0 yards to the SMU40 (#28 B.Booker)Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+10
83.2%
(10:46) #0 C.Bell rush left for 10 yards gain to the SMU30 (#8 M.Barnes Jr.) PENALTY LOU Holding (#70 T.Sylvester) 10 yards from SMU40 to SMU50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 11
50
+6
84.9%
(10:30) #93 D.Chapeau punt 39 yards to the SMU11 #8 Y.Knight return 6 yards to the SMU17 (#13 J.Agu; #7 R.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:0886% → 88%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
86.3%
(10:20) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #3 R.Brinson caught at SMU13, for 12 yards to the SMU29 (#21 D.Hutchinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
86.6%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short left to #3 R.Brinson thrown to SMU37 QB hurried by #50 C.LubinSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
86.6%
(09:59) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush left for 6 yards gain to the SMU35 (#24 C.Gordon; #34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+7
87.2%
(09:15) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #88 M.Hibner caught at SMU42, for 7 yards to the SMU42 (#4 J.Mack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
88.5%
(08:32) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #8 Y.Knight caught at LOU45, for 13 yards to the LOU45, out of bounds at LOU45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
88.8%
(08:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short middle to #88 M.Hibner thrown to LOU27Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
88.8%
(08:06) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #27 T.Harden caught at SMU44, for 2 yards to the LOU43 (#11 T.Capers)Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
88.7%
(07:19) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Hudson thrown to LOU32 QB hurried by #17 A.GreenSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
87.9%
(07:14) #43 W.McSparron punt 28 yards to the LOU15 fair catch by #81 B.Golden at LOU15 PENALTY SMU Kick Catch Interference (#26 J.Moses) 15 yards from LOU15 to LOU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2214% → 13%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
85.7%
(07:07) #26 D.Watson rush left for 2 yards gain to the LOU32 (#3 A.Moses)Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
86.7%
(06:28) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 6 yards gain to the LOU38 (#4 T.Webb)Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
86.7%
(05:54) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Hurry thrown to LOU44Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
87.1%
(05:51) #93 D.Chapeau punt 54 yards to the SMU08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 4:4389% → 95%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
89.2%
(05:39) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #82 R.Maryland caught at SMU06, for 0 yards to the SMU08 (#24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
91.1%
(04:55) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush right for 4 yards gain to the SMU12 (#12 K.Perry)Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+18
90.9%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #2 J.Hudson caught at SMU22, for 18 yards to the SMU30 (#25 T.Holloway), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. #90 R.Konga injured on the playSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
92.0%
(04:10) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short left to #82 R.Maryland thrown to SMU45Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
91.9%
(04:04) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #8 Y.Knight caught at SMU27, for 2 yards loss to the SMU28 (#24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+5
92.6%
(03:36) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete deep right to #2 J.Hudson thrown to LOU40 PENALTY LOU Offside 5 yards from SMU28 to SMU33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+17
92.8%
(03:34) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #82 R.Maryland caught at SMU40, for 17 yards to the SMU50 (#12 K.Perry; #6 S.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
50
+9
93.5%
(02:51) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush middle for 9 yards gain to the LOU41 (#27 J.Evans Jr.; #24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+10
93.8%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush left for 10 yards gain to the LOU31 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #90 R.Konga), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
94.0%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Johnson Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the LOU28 (#34 T.Quinn). #92 M.Carter injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
94.1%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete deep left to #0 D.McFall thrown to LOU05Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-4
93.9%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings rush middle for 4 yards loss to the LOU32 (#50 C.Lubin)Similar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+49
95.4%
(00:48) #95 S.Keltner field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett), clock 00:48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -36 yds · 0:476% → 5%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
94.2%
(00:45) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at LOU26, for 1 yard loss to the LOU28 (#9 C.Robertson)Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
94.7%
(00:07) Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass incomplete deep middle to #14 K.Hughes thrown to SMU41Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+1
94.8%
(00:02) Shotgun #13 D.Adams rush right for 1 yard gain to the LOU29, out of bounds at LOU29Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
94.8%
(14:56) #93 D.Chapeau punt 39 yards to the SMU32 fair catch by #8 Y.Knight at SMU32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 5:0596% → 100%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
96.3%
(14:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #8 Y.Knight caught at SMU28, for 8 yards to the SMU40 (#12 K.Perry)Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
97.0%
(14:04) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush middle for 0 yards to the SMU40 (#95 J.Lawson; #34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+9
97.1%
(13:18) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush right for 9 yards gain to the SMU49 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #27 J.Evans Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
97.3%
(12:41) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete deep left to #2 J.Hudson caught at LOU25, for 26 yards to the LOU25 (#21 D.Hutchinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
97.5%
(11:54) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush left for 4 yards loss to the LOU29 (#27 J.Evans Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+22
97.5%
(11:08) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #3 R.Brinson caught at LOU21, for 22 yards to the LOU07 (#27 J.Evans Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
97.7%
(10:24) Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LOU06 (#90 R.Konga)Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.8%
(09:47) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Hudson thrown to LOU00 broken up by #25 T.HollowaySimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.6%
(09:42) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #8 Y.Knight caught at LOU00, for 6 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:38. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (LS: #48 M.Tribbett) #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.6%
(09:29) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the LOU34 (#3 A.Moses)Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
99.6%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 D.Adams pass incomplete short left thrown to LOU34 broken up by #40 K.SpearsSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-8
99.6%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 D.Adams sacked for loss of 8 yards to the LOU26 (#29 B.Miyazono)Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
(08:17) #93 D.Chapeau punt 39 yards to the SMU35 fair catch by #8 Y.Knight at SMU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.6%
(08:11) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #82 R.Maryland caught at SMU30, for 6 yards to the SMU41 (#25 T.Holloway)Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
99.8%
(07:24) Shotgun #24 S.Clayton-Johnson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SMU47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.8%
(06:40) Shotgun #24 S.Clayton-Johnson rush left for 3 yards gain to the SMU50 (#17 A.Green). #17 A.Green injured on the playSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 7
50
+50
99.9%
(06:08) Shotgun #24 S.Clayton-Johnson rush middle for 50 yards gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:03, 1ST DOWN #44 S.Eby kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Collins, LS: #49 N.Akins)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18INT
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
99.9%
(05:48) No Huddle #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 26 yards gain to the SMU47 (#26 J.Moses), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
(05:16) No Huddle #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the SMU43 (#32 B.Walton III; #25 J.Holiday)Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
(04:47) #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SMU41 (#22 S.Reyes)Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+7
99.9%
(04:07) Shotgun #12 B.Allen pass complete short middle to #14 K.Hughes caught at SMU36, for 7 yards to the SMU34 (#33 Z.Barker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Allen pass intercepted by #10 T.Polley Jr. at SMU17, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
99.9%
(03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 C.Fiser pass complete short middle to #39 K.Cheves caught at SMU13, for 4 yards to the SMU21 (#97 M.Davis; #11 T.Capers)Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
(02:57) Shotgun #24 S.Clayton-Johnson rush right for 2 yards gain to the SMU23 (#11 T.Capers; #97 M.Davis)Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+1
99.9%
(02:09) Shotgun #24 S.Clayton-Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SMU24 (#96 J.Coffman)Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
(02:00) #43 W.McSparron punt 51 yards to the LOU25 #15 A.Meeks return 2 yards to the LOU27 (#48 M.Tribbett; #28 B.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
100.0%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the LOU28 (#24 M.Iheanachor)Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+12
100.0%
(01:16) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush right for 12 yards gain to the LOU40 (#27 A.Muhammad), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
100.0%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the LOU40 (#33 Z.Barker)Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
100.0%
(00:28) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 6 yards gain to the LOU46 (#24 M.Iheanachor)Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+1
100.0%
(00:06) Shotgun #89 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LOU47 (#33 Z.Barker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:25
(03:31) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #27 T.Harden caught at LOU03, for 5 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:25 #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett)
+6.6
FG · Q2 1:44
(01:46) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 01:44
-4.4
TD · Q4 9:38
(09:42) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #8 Y.Knight caught at LOU00, for 6 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:38. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (LS: #48 M.Tribbett) #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com