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UNC

North Carolina 12 at Wake Forest 28

WAKE
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:12 · (13:22) #96 T.Maginness punt 53 yards to the Wake22 #8 C.Hernandez return 11 yards to the Wake33 (#40 T.Thompson)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Home team on offense+7.7Pregame prior+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:47: (01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:47, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Calvert kick attempt good (H: #9 S.Racanelli, LS: #32 W.Cobb) — WAKE win probability +10.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Rece Verhoff 57 Yd Field Goal — UNC win probability +7.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:46: (06:49) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 06:46 — UNC win probability +9.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:46: Timeout North Carolina, clock 06:46 — WAKE win probability +5.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:54: Carlos Hernandez 70 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick) — WAKE win probability +14.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:54UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:31WAKE 4th & 11 at UNC 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:54UNC 4th & 8 at WAKE 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−3.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:32WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:02UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:27UNC 4th & 11 at WAKE 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:25WAKE 4th & 1 at UNC 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−1.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:12UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 25, down 8
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:29WAKE 4th & 2 at UNC 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.8%−1.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:46UNC 4th & 8 at WAKE 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:01UNC 4th & 2 at WAKE 36, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−2.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:01UNC 4th & 17 at WAKE 27, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:52WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 49, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:03UNC 4th & 10 at WAKE 29, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−4.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:51WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 42, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:21UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 11, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:22WAKE 4th & 2 at UNC 2, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:11WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:47WAKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:54WAKE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:22WAKE Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4461% → 62%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Wake31 (#91 L.Jackson; #7 K.House)Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
61.2%
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Wake33 (#12 G.Smith III)Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
61.1%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford rush right for 7 yards gain to the Wake40 (#31 W.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
61.2%
(13:36) Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass incomplete deep middle to #4 S.Berkhalter thrown to UNC25 QB hurried by #8 S.VilbertSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+51
61.9%
Carlos Hernandez 51 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:1438% → 38%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.7%
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #1 J.Shipp thrown to UNC30 broken up by #24 D.HazenSimilar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.8%
(13:06) Shotgun #12 D.June rush right for 2 yards gain to the UNC27 (#24 D.Hazen; #5 D.Patterson)Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
62.1%
(12:25) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC38, for 11 yards to the UNC38 (#5 D.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.0%
(11:41) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep left to #8 K.Paysour thrown to Wake32 broken up by #20 L.Webb Jr.Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
62.1%
(11:36) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Shipp thrown to UNC46Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
62.3%
(11:33) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #37 D.Gause caught at UNC40, for 5 yards to the UNC43 (#20 L.Webb Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
62.4%
(10:58) #96 T.Maginness punt 43 yards to the Wake14 fair catch by #8 C.Hernandez at Wake14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 5:1663% → 64%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
62.6%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Wake16 (#6 D.Robinson; #9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+3
62.9%
(10:12) Shotgun #0 T.Clark rush left for 3 yards gain to the Wake19 (#2 A.Simpson; #16 C.Bryson)Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+6
62.9%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short right to #4 S.Berkhalter caught at Wake20, for 6 yards to the Wake25 (#7 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.1%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short right to #8 C.Hernandez caught at Wake21, for 1 yard to the Wake26 (#18 J.Patterson)Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
63.4%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Wake30 (#7 K.House; #92 C.Mims)Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+23
63.5%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short middle to #9 S.Racanelli caught at Wake40, for 23 yards to the UNC47 (#15 T.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
64.8%
(07:05) Shotgun #2 R.Ashford sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UNC49 (#29 M.Allen, #90 X.Lewis)Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+1
64.6%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC48 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude; #7 K.House)Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
64.5%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass incomplete short left to #9 S.Racanelli thrown to UNC36 QB hurried by #2 A.SimpsonSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
64.1%
(05:33) #91 C.Joseph punt 48 yards to the UNC00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 7:3236% → 37%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
63.9%
(05:31) #12 D.June rush right for 5 yards gain to the UNC25 (#8 J.Loving; #45 N.Andersen)Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+13
63.9%
(04:51) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #19 J.Johnson caught at UNC38, for 13 yards to the UNC38 (#5 D.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
63.7%
(04:14) Shotgun #12 D.June rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC40 (#99 M.Ibirogba; #7 N.Gatkuoth)Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
63.9%
(03:30) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 K.Paysour caught at UNC46, for 9 yards to the UNC49 (#3 K.Prunty), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
63.4%
(02:57) Shotgun #12 D.June rush left for 9 yards gain to the Wake42 (#21 A.Hall; #23 B.Johnson)Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
63.5%
(02:16) Shotgun #12 D.June rush left for 2 yards gain to the Wake40 (#21 A.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
63.7%
(01:38) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 K.Paysour caught at Wake35, for 6 yards to the Wake34 (#3 K.Prunty)Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-3
63.1%
(00:57) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 3 yards loss to the Wake37 (#8 J.Loving; #10 G.Kirschke)Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+13
64.2%
(00:24) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at Wake33, for 13 yards to the Wake24 (#20 L.Webb Jr.; #11 L.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
63.2%
(15:00) #27 J.McGill rush right for 2 yards gain to the Wake22 (#23 B.Johnson; #9 Q.Bryant)Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+6
63.3%
(14:19) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #19 J.Johnson caught at Wake16, for 6 yards to the Wake16 (#9 Q.Bryant; #21 A.Hall)Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-1
64.2%
(13:36) #27 J.McGill rush right for 1 yard loss to the Wake17 (#21 A.Hall; #24 D.Hazen)Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+5
65.1%
(12:58) PENALTY UNC False Start (#55 J.Moore) 5 yards from Wake17 to Wake22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
62.7%
(12:56) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 12:54Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2064% → 63%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.0%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass incomplete short right to #89 J.Foley thrown to Wake25 broken up by #5 G.GibsonSimilar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.9%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass incomplete deep right to #9 S.Racanelli thrown to Wake45Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
63.4%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass incomplete deep left to #4 S.Berkhalter thrown to Wake49 broken up by #29 M.AllenSimilar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+11
62.7%
(12:40) #91 C.Joseph punt 45 yards to the UNC30 #31 W.Hardy return 11 yards to the UNC41 (#43 F.Cusano)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2236% → 34%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
64.4%
(12:32) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 K.Paysour caught at UNC43, for 6 yards to the UNC47 (#43 F.Cusano; #20 L.Webb Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-2
64.1%
(11:53) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UNC45 (#11 L.Hardy)Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
64.9%
(11:07) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #1 J.Shipp thrown to UNC50 QB hurried by #7 N.GatkuothSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+1
66.2%
(11:02) #96 T.Maginness punt 45 yards to the Wake10 #45 N.Andersen return 1 yard to the Wake11, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:4365% → 66%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
65.0%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short right to #9 S.Racanelli caught at Wake12, for 5 yards to the Wake16 (#18 J.Patterson)Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+11
65.0%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Wake27 (#2 A.Simpson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
65.5%
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Wake31 fumbled by #1 D.Claiborne at Wake29 forced by #7 K.House recovered by UNC #5 G.Gibson at Wake31, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:2837% → 33%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
63.3%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Wake23 (#45 N.Andersen; #23 B.Johnson)Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+1
63.1%
(09:19) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush right for 1 yard gain to the Wake22 (#7 N.Gatkuoth)Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
63.6%
(08:58) No Huddle #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Wake20 (#10 G.Kirschke; #5 D.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
63.6%
(08:18) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush left for 1 yard loss to the Wake21 (#24 D.Hazen)Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
64.0%
(07:44) #1 J.Shipp pass incomplete deep left to #19 J.Johnson thrown to Wake00Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
65.3%
(07:39) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #1 J.Shipp thrown to Wake15 QB hurried by #24 D.HazenSimilar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
67.2%
(07:35) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 39 yards NO GOOD blocked by #45 N.Andersen (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 07:27, out of bounds at Wake21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9TD
16 plays · 67 yds · 5:3467% → 83%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
67.2%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short right to #12 K.Johnson caught at Wake19, for 9 yards to the Wake30 (#54 T.Hickman-Collins)Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+1
68.3%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Wake31 (#2 A.Simpson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
67.8%
(06:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short right to #1 D.Claiborne caught at Wake32, for 6 yards to the Wake37 (#31 W.Hardy; #54 T.Hickman-Collins)Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+7
69.0%
(05:37) Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Wake44 (#2 A.Simpson; #54 T.Hickman-Collins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
69.5%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Wake48 (#92 C.Mims)Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
69.8%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short right to #8 C.Hernandez caught at UNC45, for 7 yards to the UNC45, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
70.1%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Clark rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC43 (#6 D.Robinson; #9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
70.6%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short middle to #8 C.Hernandez caught at UNC41, for 7 yards to the UNC36 (#7 K.House)Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
70.6%
(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Claiborne thrown to UNC37Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+1
67.9%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC35 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude; #54 T.Hickman-Collins), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
72.1%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short left to #8 C.Hernandez caught at UNC35, for 8 yards to the UNC27 (#7 K.House) PENALTY UNC Roughing The Passer (#9 M.Abou Jaoude) 14 yards from UNC27 to UNC13, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
72.3%
(01:55) Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short left to #9 S.Racanelli caught at UNC15, for 1 yard to the UNC12 (#31 W.Hardy; #18 J.Patterson) PENALTY Wake Illegal Shift declinedSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
82.5%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:47, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Calvert kick attempt good (H: #9 S.Racanelli, LS: #32 W.Cobb)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10FG
12 plays · 23 yds · 1:4726% → 25%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
73.7%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #12 D.June caught at UNC18, for 2 yards to the UNC27 (#7 N.Gatkuoth; #23 B.Johnson) PENALTY UNC Illegal Block in Back offsetting Wake Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.9%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush left for 7 yards gain to the UNC32 (#8 J.Loving)Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
72.5%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush left for 4 yards gain to the UNC36 (#43 F.Cusano; #52 D.Afalava), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
73.2%
(00:46) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #27 J.McGill caught at UNC33, for 8 yards to the UNC44 (#5 D.Patterson; #7 N.Gatkuoth) PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (#9 J.Green) 15 yards from UNC36 to UNC21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+3
74.1%
(00:22) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC16, for 3 yards to the UNC24 (#21 A.Hall) PENALTY Wake Personal Foul (#21 A.Hall) 15 yards from UNC24 to UNC39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
73.0%
(00:16) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #37 D.Gause caught at UNC35, for 9 yards to the UNC48 (#45 N.Andersen)Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+13
73.0%
(00:08) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at Wake39, for 13 yards to the Wake39 (#17 Z.Stevenson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+57
74.6%
Rece Verhoff 57 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3726% → 25%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
73.6%
(14:55) No Huddle #12 D.June rush right for 8 yards gain to the UNC25 (#24 D.Hazen)Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
73.1%
(14:13) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short right to #12 D.June thrown to UNC25 QB hurried by #52 D.AfalavaSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
74.1%
(14:09) Shotgun #12 D.June rush left for 0 yards to the UNC25 (#21 A.Hall)Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+11
75.5%
(13:22) #96 T.Maginness punt 53 yards to the Wake22 #8 C.Hernandez return 11 yards to the Wake33 (#40 T.Thompson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:3776% → 77%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
76.1%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Wake36 (#6 D.Robinson)Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
76.8%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short left to #1 D.Claiborne caught at Wake32, for 6 yards to the Wake42 (#29 M.Allen)Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
76.8%
(12:01) Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Wake46 (#7 K.House; #8 S.Vilbert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
77.9%
(11:25) Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short middle to #12 K.Johnson caught at UNC42, for 22 yards to the UNC32 (#12 G.Smith III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
78.8%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC31 (#6 D.Robinson; #2 A.Simpson)Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
78.9%
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass incomplete short right to #8 C.Hernandez thrown to UNC27Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+7
77.8%
(10:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short right to #8 C.Hernandez caught at UNC34, for 7 yards to the UNC24 (#15 T.Miller)Similar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 2
OPP 24
-9
77.1%
(09:34) Shotgun #2 R.Ashford sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UNC33 (#7 K.House), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:3326% → 36%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
74.1%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #12 D.June caught at UNC25, for 26 yards to the Wake41 (#3 K.Prunty; #99 M.Ibirogba), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
72.0%
(08:49) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 15 yards gain to the Wake26 (#45 N.Andersen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
69.8%
(08:14) #28 B.Hall rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Wake24 (#17 Z.Stevenson; #7 N.Gatkuoth)Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
69.9%
(07:33) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush left for 0 yards to the Wake24 (#5 D.Patterson)Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
74.0%
(06:52) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #27 J.McGill thrown to Wake23Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
64.5%
(06:49) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 06:46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4771% → 86%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.4%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Wake30 (#2 A.Simpson; #9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
85.9%
Carlos Hernandez 70 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15MISSED FG
16 plays · 47 yds · 5:4516% → 10%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
83.6%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at UNC41, for 6 yards to the UNC41 (#20 L.Webb Jr.)Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
83.2%
(05:17) Shotgun #12 D.June rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC43 (#52 D.Afalava)Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+13
84.0%
(04:37) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #9 J.Green caught at Wake50, for 13 yards to the Wake44 (#21 A.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
82.8%
(03:56) #28 B.Hall rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Wake45 (#21 A.Hall; #24 D.Hazen)Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+9
83.7%
(03:14) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #28 B.Hall caught at UNC49, for 9 yards to the Wake36 (#5 D.Patterson; #22 M.Turpin)Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
83.1%
(02:35) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep right to #27 J.McGill thrown to Wake06. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (02:35) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete deep right to #27 J.McGill caught at Wake06, for 30 yards to the Wake06, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+4
84.3%
(02:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at Wake32, for 4 yards to the Wake32 (#27 T.West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
82.9%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Paysour thrown to Wake00 broken up by #45 N.AndersenSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
83.1%
(01:36) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #19 J.Johnson caught at Wake21, for 12 yards to the Wake20 (#45 N.Andersen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
82.7%
(00:57) #12 D.June rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Wake18 (#22 M.Turpin; #11 L.Hardy)Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
82.9%
(00:18) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Green thrown to Wake00Similar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 8
OPP 18
-9
84.5%
(00:15) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 9 yards to the Wake27 (#7 N.Gatkuoth)Similar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 17
OPP 27
+45
89.7%
(00:01) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD blocked by #99 M.Ibirogba (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 00:00, out of bounds at Wake27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0391% → 93%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
90.9%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Wake28 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude; #40 T.Thompson)Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
90.8%
(14:19) Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass incomplete short left to #8 C.Hernandez thrown to Wake23Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+21
90.9%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford rush middle for 21 yards gain to the Wake49, out of bounds at Wake49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
92.1%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 0 yards to the Wake49 (#40 T.Thompson)Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
93.9%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass incomplete short right to #8 C.Hernandez thrown to UNC40Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
93.7%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass incomplete short right to #8 C.Hernandez thrown to UNC50Similar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
93.3%
(12:56) #91 C.Joseph punt 21 yards to the UNC30, out of bounds at UNC30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:4010% → 12%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
90.2%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #12 D.June caught at UNC23, for 7 yards to the UNC37 (#24 D.Hazen; #22 M.Turpin)Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+19
91.1%
(12:12) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #19 J.Johnson caught at UNC49, for 19 yards to the Wake44 (#43 F.Cusano), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
90.7%
(11:29) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep right to #9 J.Green thrown to Wake12 PENALTY Wake Pass Interference (#20 L.Webb Jr.) 15 yards from Wake44 to Wake29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
89.7%
(11:20) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short middle to #37 D.Gause thrown to Wake27 QB hurried by #52 D.AfalavaSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
90.2%
(11:20) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Shipp thrown to Wake15 QB hurried by #52 D.AfalavaSimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
92.2%
(11:15) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Paysour thrown to Wake10 broken up by #45 N.AndersenSimilar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
88.0%
(11:06) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 11:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 4:0291% → 97%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
91.1%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Wake26 (#94 I.Johnson)Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
93.6%
(10:12) Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Wake33 (#94 I.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
93.9%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush left for 3 yards gain to the Wake36 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
94.3%
(08:49) Shotgun #0 T.Clark rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Wake39 (#92 C.Mims)Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+10
94.4%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford rush left for 4 yards gain to the Wake43 (#20 J.Thompson) PENALTY Wake Holding (#4 S.Berkhalter) 10 yards from Wake39 to Wake29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+13
94.4%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short middle to #4 S.Berkhalter caught at Wake35, for 13 yards to the Wake42 (#20 J.Thompson)Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
96.8%
(06:57) #91 C.Joseph punt 43 yards to the UNC15 fair catch by #31 W.Hardy at UNC15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:217% → 6%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
92.9%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #37 D.Gause caught at UNC10, for 7 yards to the UNC22 (#5 D.Patterson)Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
93.3%
(06:07) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Paysour thrown to UNC25 broken up by #3 K.PruntySimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+11
94.1%
(06:02) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at UNC27, for 6 yards to the UNC28 (#43 F.Cusano) PENALTY UNC Personal Foul (#66 J.Hall) 11 yard from UNC22 to UNC11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 14
OWN 11
0
94.3%
(05:34) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #19 J.Johnson thrown to UNC20 broken up by #5 D.Patterson QB hurried by #94 Z.LohavichanSimilar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
94.4%
(05:24) #96 T.Maginness punt 44 yards to the Wake45 fair catch by #8 C.Hernandez at Wake45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20TD
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:5498% → 99%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
97.6%
(05:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Wake49 (#31 W.Hardy)Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
97.8%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNC48 (#4 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+8
98.0%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNC40 (#31 W.Hardy; #8 S.Vilbert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
98.2%
(03:49) Shotgun #0 T.Clark rush left for 10 yards gain to the UNC30 (#31 W.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
98.6%
(03:00) Shotgun #0 T.Clark rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC27 (#26 K.Conley)Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+20
98.7%
(02:19) Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush left for 20 yards gain to the UNC07 (#5 G.Gibson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
98.1%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC04 (#6 D.Robinson; #92 C.Mims)Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
98.2%
(01:15) Shotgun #0 T.Clark rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC03 (#6 D.Robinson; #92 C.Mims)Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
98.4%
(00:31) #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC02 (#4 M.Gbayor; #6 D.Robinson)Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford rush right for 2 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22 #90 C.Calvert kick attempt good (H: #9 S.Racanelli, LS: #32 W.Cobb)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.0%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #19 J.Johnson caught at UNC28, for 4 yards to the UNC29 (#21 A.Hall)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:54
Carlos Hernandez 70 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)
+14.5
TD · Q2 1:47
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:47, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Calvert kick attempt good (H: #9 S.Racanelli, LS: #32 W.Cobb)
+10.2
FG · Q3 6:46
(06:49) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 06:46
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com