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CLEM

Clemson 20 at Louisville 19

LOU
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 14, 2025 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreCLEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:04 · (11:08) #93 D.Chapeau punt 44 yards to the CLE06 fair catch by #0 A.Williams at CLE06
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense+1.4Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:47: (08:47) #7 M.Moss rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:47 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt failed (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav) — LOU win probability +6.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:13: (03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 25 yards gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:13, 1ST DOWN #81 N.Hauser kick attempt good (H: #88 C.Swinney, LS: #58 H.Caspersen) — CLEM win probability +19.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:16: (11:15) Shotgun #5 C.Lacy pass complete short right to #85 N.Kurisky caught at CLE00, for 2 yards to the CLE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:16 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav) — LOU win probability +14.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:07: (07:10) #81 N.Hauser field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #88 C.Swinney, LS: #58 H.Caspersen), clock 07:07 — CLEM win probability +3.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q3 1:32: (01:32) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 01:32 — LOU win probability +9.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 12:06CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:38CLEM 4th & 5 at LOU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:46LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:57CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:45LOU 4th & 5 at CLEM 33, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:34CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:04LOU 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:01CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:26CLEM 4th & 5 at LOU 45, down 6
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−1.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:01LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:06CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 15, up 1
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%−1.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:07CLEM 4th & 6 at LOU 30, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:32LOU 4th & 6 at CLEM 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−11.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:29CLEM 4th & 1 at LOU 1, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−6.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−20.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:24LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 7, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:16CLEM 4th & 1 at LOU 1, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    47.0%−9.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−34.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:06LOU 4th & 15 at CLEM 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−10.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−11.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:31CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:33LOU 4th & 15 at CLEM 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−18.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−26.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:30CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 39, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−11.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:03LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−14.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 8:47LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:13CLEM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:16LOU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLEMDrive 1FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 6:1351% → 51%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
48.8%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short right to #8 A.Randall caught at CLE20, for 13 yards to the CLE38 (#34 T.Quinn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
48.9%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CLE31 (#50 C.Lubin)Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+10
49.1%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 10 yards gain to the CLE41 (#50 C.Lubin)Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
49.2%
(12:46) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short middle to #0 A.Williams caught at CLE47, for 6 yards to the CLE47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
49.2%
(12:09) #2 C.Klubnik rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLE49 (#11 T.Capers; #6 S.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
49.1%
(11:29) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short left to #1 T.Moore caught at LOU40, for 11 yards to the LOU40, out of bounds at LOU40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
49.0%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Williams rush left for 5 yards gain to the LOU35 (#11 T.Capers), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+20
48.9%
(10:28) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short middle to #11 O.Patt-Henry caught at LOU25, for 20 yards to the LOU15 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #25 T.Holloway), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
49.0%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short left to #9 G.Davidson caught at LOU15, for 7 yards to the LOU08 (#25 T.Holloway)Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-2
49.0%
(09:29) Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush right for 2 yards loss to the LOU10 (#6 S.Clark)Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
49.2%
(08:47) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short left to #8 A.Randall thrown to LOU16Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
49.2%
(08:38) #81 N.Hauser field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #88 C.Swinney, LS: #58 H.Caspersen), clock 08:38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:4749% → 49%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.3%
(08:36) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LOU27 (#19 D.Capehart)Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
49.5%
(08:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at LOU32, for 7 yards to the LOU34 (#23 A.Hampton; #6 R.Jones) PENALTY LOU Chop Block (#70 T.Sylvester) 13 yards from LOU27 to LOU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+5
49.4%
(07:58) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LOU19 (#17 W.Woodaz)Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+8
49.1%
(07:30) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #22 K.Brown caught at LOU20, for 8 yards to the LOU27 (#47 S.Brown; #15 J.Lawson)Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
49.0%
(06:53) #93 D.Chapeau punt 48 yards to the CLE25 #0 A.Williams return 0 yards to the CLE25 (#48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4450% → 50%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.7%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLE29 (#12 K.Perry; #92 M.Carter)Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
49.6%
(06:10) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short right to #22 C.Turner caught at CLE37, for 8 yards to the CLE37 (#25 T.Holloway), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.5%
(05:31) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete deep left to #1 T.Moore thrown to LOU21Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
49.6%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short left to #0 A.Williams caught at CLE34, for 7 yards to the CLE44 (#12 K.Perry)Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-1
49.1%
(04:40) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short right to #0 A.Williams caught at CLE41, for 1 yard loss to the CLE43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
49.9%
(04:03) #89 J.Smith punt 45 yards to the LOU12 fair catch by #5 C.Lacy at LOU12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:0549% → 53%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
49.3%
(03:55) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush right for 7 yards gain to the LOU19 (#12 C.Gipson; #3 T.Parker) PENALTY CLE Personal Foul (#13 W.Heldt) 15 yards from LOU19 to LOU34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
49.6%
(03:37) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #88 J.Skinner caught at LOU40, for 15 yards to the LOU49 (#7 K.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
50.8%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #26 D.Watson caught at LOU47, for 2 yards loss to the LOU47 (#47 S.Brown; #3 T.Parker)Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+15
50.1%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #0 C.Bell caught at CLE42, for 15 yards to the CLE38 (#8 A.Terrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
51.1%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #5 C.Lacy caught at CLE41, for 4 yards to the CLE34 (#47 S.Brown; #8 A.Terrell)Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
51.9%
(01:38) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle to #26 D.Watson thrown to CLE35Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+1
51.2%
(01:34) Shotgun #7 M.Moss rush left for 1 yard gain to the CLE33 (#44 C.Denhoff)Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+51
52.8%
(00:49) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #39 C.Schwartz, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 00:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:0949% → 48%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
50.9%
(00:43) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Smith thrown to CLE36 PENALTY LOU Holding (#24 C.Gordon) 10 yards from CLE25 to CLE35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
50.6%
(00:36) Shotgun #9 G.Davidson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLE36 (#9 A.Watts)Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
50.5%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete deep left to #0 A.Williams caught at LOU36, for 28 yards to the LOU36 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #25 T.Holloway) PENALTY CLE Holding (#71 T.Leigh) 10 yards from CLE36 to CLE26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+10
51.2%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Davidson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the CLE36 (#4 J.Mack; #24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
51.3%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short right to #0 A.Williams thrown to CLE38 QB hurried by #50 C.LubinSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
51.9%
(13:37) #89 J.Smith punt 49 yards to the LOU15, out of bounds at LOU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:2153% → 54%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
52.5%
(13:32) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #22 K.Brown caught at LOU18, for 6 yards to the LOU21 (#17 W.Woodaz; #35 J.Alexander)Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+23
53.0%
(13:00) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 23 yards gain to the LOU44 (#6 R.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
54.4%
(12:21) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LOU49 (#8 A.Terrell; #35 J.Alexander)Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+1
54.8%
(11:48) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LOU50 (#35 J.Alexander; #13 W.Heldt)Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 4
50
0
54.7%
(11:13) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short right to #0 C.Bell thrown to CLE36Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 4
50
0
53.8%
(11:08) #93 D.Chapeau punt 44 yards to the CLE06 fair catch by #0 A.Williams at CLE06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5548% → 46%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
52.3%
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short left to #8 A.Randall thrown to CLE03Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+1
52.3%
(10:53) Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLE07 (#9 A.Watts; #95 J.Lawson)Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 9
OWN 7
0
53.1%
(10:14) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Smith thrown to CLE17Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 9
OWN 7
0
53.7%
(10:06) #89 J.Smith punt 31 yards to the CLE38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:0556% → 63%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+37
55.8%
(09:55) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete deep right to #0 C.Bell caught at CLE09, for 37 yards to the CLE01 (#5 R.Hanafin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.7%
(09:24) #26 D.Watson rush middle for 0 yards to the CLE01 (#13 W.Heldt; #8 A.Terrell)Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.8%
(08:47) #7 M.Moss rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:47 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt failed (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:1340% → 38%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
60.2%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short left to #1 T.Moore caught at CLE25, for 14 yards to the CLE39 (#90 R.Konga), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
59.9%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Williams rush right for 8 yards gain to the CLE47 (#24 C.Gordon; #23 W.Bailey)Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
59.0%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short left to #0 A.Williams caught at CLE43, for 3 yards to the CLE50 (#6 S.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
50
+5
59.1%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short left to #1 T.Moore caught at LOU46, for 5 yards to the LOU45 (#25 T.Holloway)Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
59.4%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short right to #0 A.Williams thrown to LOU36 QB hurried by #99 J.GueradSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
59.8%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short right to #22 C.Turner caught at LOU45, for 0 yards to the LOU45 (#24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
61.7%
(05:32) #89 J.Smith punt 38 yards to the LOU07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:5463% → 65%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
63.1%
(05:24) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LOU13 (#21 K.McCloud)Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+1
63.6%
(04:50) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LOU14 (#44 C.Denhoff; #21 K.McCloud)Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+7
63.1%
(04:08) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #88 J.Skinner caught at LOU19, for 7 yards to the LOU21 (#47 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
64.5%
(03:24) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LOU25 fumbled by #26 D.Watson at LOU25 forced by #8 A.Terrell recovered by CLE #8 A.Terrell at LOU25 #8 A.Terrell return 0 yards to the LOU25, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
45.5%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 25 yards gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:13, 1ST DOWN #81 N.Hauser kick attempt good (H: #88 C.Swinney, LS: #58 H.Caspersen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:0551% → 50%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.2%
(03:11) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #5 C.Lacy caught at LOU22, for 5 yards to the LOU30 (#12 C.Gipson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
51.6%
(02:30) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #5 C.Lacy caught at LOU33, for 3 yards to the LOU33 (#35 J.Alexander; #12 C.Gipson)Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
51.7%
(01:58) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 14 yards gain to the LOU47 (#12 C.Gipson; #35 J.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
53.7%
(01:43) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush right for 1 yard loss to the LOU46 (#17 W.Woodaz)Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
51.9%
(01:15) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short right to #0 C.Bell thrown to CLE49Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
51.0%
(01:10) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle to #2 T.Hurry thrown to LOU50 broken up by #15 J.LawsonSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
49.8%
(01:04) #93 D.Chapeau punt 45 yards to the CLE09 fair catch by #0 A.Williams at CLE09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:4850% → 48%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
49.9%
(00:59) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Smith thrown to CLE20Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
50.1%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLE13 (#99 J.Guerad)Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+2
50.7%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLE15 (#34 T.Quinn; #99 J.Guerad)Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
51.8%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete deep right thrown to CLE45, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3950% → 69%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
50.4%
(14:58) #22 K.Brown rush right for 21 yards gain to the LOU46 (#47 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
53.4%
(14:29) No Huddle #22 K.Brown rush right for 11 yards gain to the CLE43 (#35 J.Alexander; #6 R.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
54.3%
(13:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #88 J.Skinner caught at CLE41, for 4 yards to the CLE39 (#8 A.Terrell), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+10
54.3%
(13:19) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #14 K.Hughes caught at CLE42, for 10 yards to the CLE29 (#6 R.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
55.3%
(12:42) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush right for 25 yards gain to the CLE04 (#12 C.Gipson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
55.4%
(11:55) #26 D.Watson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLE02 (#47 S.Brown; #7 K.Barnes)Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.4%
(11:15) Shotgun #5 C.Lacy pass complete short right to #85 N.Kurisky caught at CLE00, for 2 yards to the CLE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:16 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:0236% → 42%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.8%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CLE32 (#4 J.Mack)Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
61.8%
(10:43) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short right to #8 A.Randall caught at CLE27, for 10 yards to the CLE42 (#4 J.Mack; #6 S.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
62.5%
(09:58) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short right to #11 O.Patt-Henry caught at CLE45, for 3 yards to the CLE45 (#6 S.Clark)Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+21
61.6%
(09:18) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short left to #0 A.Williams caught at LOU36, for 21 yards to the LOU34 (#27 J.Evans Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
59.7%
(08:37) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short left to #1 T.Moore caught at LOU34, for 4 yards to the LOU30 (#99 J.Guerad)Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
59.2%
(07:57) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik rush middle for 0 yards to the LOU30 (#17 A.Green; #90 R.Konga)Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
61.8%
(07:14) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short middle to #22 C.Turner thrown to LOU32 broken up by #99 J.GueradSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
58.4%
(07:10) #81 N.Hauser field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #88 C.Swinney, LS: #58 H.Caspersen), clock 07:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 5:2762% → 75%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.5%
(07:05) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at LOU29, for 7 yards to the LOU32 (#7 K.Barnes)Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
63.3%
(06:29) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LOU36 (#12 C.Gipson; #19 D.Capehart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
63.1%
(05:53) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #85 N.Kurisky caught at LOU41, for 5 yards to the LOU41 (#21 K.McCloud)Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+24
64.7%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 24 yards gain to the CLE35 (#7 K.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
66.8%
PENALTY LOU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from CLE35 to CLE40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+10
64.7%
(04:21) #26 D.Watson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the CLE30 (#6 R.Jones)Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+5
67.2%
(03:43) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CLE25 (#7 K.Barnes; #95 A.Adams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
67.4%
(03:03) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short left to #26 D.Watson thrown to CLE23 QB hurried by #21 K.McCloudSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-2
67.3%
(03:01) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CLE27 (#47 S.Brown; #35 J.Alexander)Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+6
65.2%
(02:18) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #26 D.Watson caught at CLE30, for 6 yards to the CLE21 (#6 R.Jones)Similar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
74.7%
(01:32) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 01:32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17FUMBLE
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:4933% → 32%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
67.5%
(01:31) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete deep middle to #1 T.Moore caught at CLE45, for 22 yards to the CLE47 (#9 A.Watts), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
64.1%
(00:50) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short left to #0 A.Williams caught at LOU45, for 11 yards to the LOU42 (#9 A.Watts; #24 C.Gordon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
63.5%
(00:07) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short right to #9 G.Davidson thrown to LOU40 QB hurried by #9 A.WattsSimilar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
63.8%
(00:03) Shotgun #9 G.Davidson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the LOU33 (#34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
63.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LOU32 (#34 T.Quinn; #45 D.Lowry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
61.9%
(14:18) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short left to #1 T.Moore caught at LOU20, for 12 yards to the LOU20, out of bounds at LOU20, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
61.3%
(13:41) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik sacked for loss of 8 yards to the LOU28 (#23 W.Bailey) PENALTY LOU Horse Collar Tackle (#23 W.Bailey) 10 yards from LOU20 to LOU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
61.4%
(13:11) Shotgun #9 G.Davidson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LOU06 (#50 C.Lubin)Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
61.7%
(12:28) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short right to #0 A.Williams caught at LOU05, for 5 yards to the LOU01 (#25 T.Holloway)Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.0%
(11:43) #11 P.Woods rush middle for 0 yards to the LOU01 fumbled by #11 P.Woods at forced by #9 A.Watts recovered by CLE #2 C.Klubnik at LOU01, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
68.1%
(11:29) #2 C.Klubnik rush middle for 3 yards loss to the LOU04 fumbled by #2 C.Klubnik at LOU04 recovered by LOU #99 J.Guerad at LOU04, End Of Play PENALTY LOU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#21 D.Hutchinson) 2 yards from LOU04 to LOU02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0080% → 43%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+1
80.0%
(11:24) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush right for 18 yards gain to the LOU20 (#6 R.Jones), out of bounds PENALTY LOU Holding (#85 N.Kurisky) 1 yard from LOU02 to LOU01. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
46.7%
(11:24) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush right for 18 yards gain to the LOU20 (#6 R.Jones) PENALTY LOU Holding (#85 N.Kurisky) 1 yard from LOU02 to LOU01. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 12
OWN 1
+1
46.7%
(10:59) #7 M.Moss rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LOU02 (#47 S.Brown; #11 P.Woods)Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
46.5%
(10:18) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short left to #0 C.Bell thrown to LOU18Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+5
44.4%
(10:16) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LOU07 (#17 W.Woodaz; #47 S.Brown)Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 6
OWN 7
0
43.2%
(09:33) #93 D.Chapeau punt 49 yards to the CLE44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:0158% → 61%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
41.7%
(09:21) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short left to #22 C.Turner thrown to LOU40 QB hurried by #12 K.PerrySimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+46
42.5%
(09:15) Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 46 yards gain to the LOU10 (#24 C.Gordon), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
38.2%
(08:37) Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LOU06 (#99 J.Guerad; #6 S.Clark)Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
36.0%
(08:00) Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LOU03 (#50 C.Lubin)Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
38.0%
(07:42) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short right to #11 O.Patt-Henry caught at LOU07, for 2 yards to the LOU01 (#24 C.Gordon; #23 W.Bailey)Similar
Q4 7:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.5%
(07:25) Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:16, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #81 N.Hauser kick attempt good (H: #88 C.Swinney, LS: #58 H.Caspersen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:5548% → 44%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
47.9%
(07:10) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #5 C.Lacy caught at LOU16, for 48 yards to the CLE27 (#12 C.Gipson), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
56.3%
(06:15) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLE26 (#3 T.Parker; #13 W.Heldt)Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
56.0%
(05:33) #26 D.Watson rush left for 0 yards to the CLE26 (#8 A.Terrell; #17 W.Woodaz)Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 9
OPP 26
-6
53.1%
(04:55) Shotgun #7 M.Moss sacked for loss of 6 yards to the CLE32 (#47 S.Brown)Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+50
43.5%
(04:07) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 04:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2564% → 63%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
35.6%
(04:05) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete short right to #8 A.Randall caught at CLE26, for 4 yards to the CLE36 (#92 M.Carter; #9 A.Watts)Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
32.8%
(03:20) Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 0 yards to the CLE36 (#11 T.Capers; #21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
34.0%
(02:36) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete short middle to #11 O.Patt-Henry thrown to CLE35 QB hurried by #99 J.GueradSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 6
OWN 36
-13
36.7%
(02:29) #89 J.Smith rush middle for 13 yards loss to the CLE23 (#11 T.Capers), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · -20 yds · 0:5857% → 44%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
56.8%
PENALTY LOU False Start (#60 R.Miller) 5 yards from CLE23 to CLE28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 15
OPP 28
-2
55.7%
(02:28) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CLE30 (#13 W.Heldt; #17 W.Woodaz)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+3
53.3%
(01:57) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CLE27 (#11 P.Woods) PENALTY LOU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#53 L.Robinson) 15 yards from CLE27 to CLE42Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 29
OPP 42
+14
47.2%
(01:49) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #15 A.Meeks caught at CLE41, for 14 yards to the CLE28 (#6 R.Jones)Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+61
44.2%
Nick Keller 46 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:0070% → 77%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
29.7%
PENALTY LOU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#92 M.Carter) 15 yards from CLE28 to CLE43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
24.5%
(01:29) Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLE47 (#34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-1
23.2%
(01:23) Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CLE46 (#9 A.Watts)Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-2
24.8%
(01:22) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CLE44 (#6 S.Clark; #21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+5
22.1%
PENALTY CLE Delay Of Game 5 yards from CLE44 to CLE39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
22.6%
(00:34) #89 J.Smith punt 44 yards to the LOU17 #5 C.Lacy return 0 yards to the LOU17 (#5 R.Hanafin) PENALTY LOU Holding (#38 C.White) 8 yards from LOU17 to LOU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:2231% → 19%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
30.7%
(00:28) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #0 C.Bell caught at LOU17, for 11 yards to the LOU20 (#47 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
26.2%
(00:23) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #0 C.Bell caught at LOU27, for 9 yards to the LOU29 (#5 R.Hanafin)Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
29.1%
(00:12) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
22.0%
(00:10) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle to #0 C.Bell thrown to LOU38Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
19.3%
(00:07) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle to #3 D.Collins thrown to LOU45 broken up by #6 R.Jones, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
4.9%
(00:02) Kneel down by Clemson at LOU31 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:13
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Randall rush middle for 25 yards gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:13, 1ST DOWN #81 N.Hauser kick attempt good (H: #88 C.Swinney, LS: #58 H.Caspersen)
-19
TD · Q3 11:16
(11:15) Shotgun #5 C.Lacy pass complete short right to #85 N.Kurisky caught at CLE00, for 2 yards to the CLE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:16 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)
+14
FG · Q3 1:32
(01:32) #36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav), clock 01:32
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com