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STAN

Stanford 15 at North Carolina 20

UNC
2025 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:47 · (10:57) #37 A.Flintoft punt 54 yards to the UNC14 #9 J.Green return 5 yards to the UNC19 (#41 A.Pulsipher)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+14.6Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Emmet Kenney 38 Yd Field Goal — STAN win probability +9.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:43: Davion Gause 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick) — STAN win probability +2.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q4 14:16: Rece Verhoff 48 Yd Field Goal — UNC win probability +1.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:04: Jordan Shipp 55 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick) — UNC win probability +1.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 1:48: CJ Williams 24 Yd pass from Elijah Brown (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — STAN win probability +4.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 8STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:38STAN 4th & 22 at STAN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42UNC 4th & 2 at STAN 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:49UNC 4th & 8 at STAN 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:03STAN 4th & 8 at UNC 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:25UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 16, up 3
    Close callPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:47STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:11STAN 4th & 3 at UNC 23, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.6%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:27UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 32, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:25STAN 4th & 10 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:20UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−2.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:16UNC 4th & 4 at STAN 30, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%−1.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−4.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:05STAN 4th & 12 at STAN 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−6.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:55UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:46UNC 4th & 6 at STAN 43, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 8.7 ptsPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.5%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%−8.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:01STAN 4th & 16 at STAN 26, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 7.7 ptsWent for it · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%−7.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.7%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 4:0729% → 29%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
71.4%
(14:48) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 5 yards gain to the STA29 (#31 W.Hardy; #7 K.House)Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
71.2%
(14:11) Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STA33 (#94 I.Johnson)Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+6
71.1%
(13:29) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 6 yards gain to the STA39 (#31 W.Hardy; #7 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
70.8%
(12:52) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STA42 fumbled by #20 M.Ford at STA42 forced by #8 S.Vilbert recovered by STA #20 M.Ford at STA42, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-7
70.7%
(12:07) Shotgun #2 E.Brown sacked for loss of 7 yards to the STA35 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 14
OWN 35
-8
70.9%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown sacked for loss of 8 yards to the STA27 (#40 T.Thompson)Similar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 22
OWN 27
0
70.9%
(10:44) #37 A.Flintoft punt 42 yards to the UNC31 #9 J.Green return 0 yards to the UNC31 (#87 A.Black)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5671% → 70%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
70.7%
(10:38) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short middle to #84 S.Easter thrown to UNC45 broken up by #5 J.Green QB hurried by #94 A.Franklin PENALTY STA Pass Interference declined STA Roughing The Passer (#94 A.Franklin) 15 yards from UNC31 to UNC46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
71.0%
(10:32) Shotgun #12 D.June rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC50 (#5 J.Green; #35 M.Rose)Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 6
50
+4
71.1%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at STA46, for 4 yards to the STA46 (#9 B.Nicholson)Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
71.0%
(09:28) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 0 yards to the STA46 (#75 B.Marceau-Olayinka; #32 M.Leigber)Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
70.4%
(08:51) #96 T.Maginness punt 37 yards to the STA09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4930% → 29%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
70.2%
(08:40) #20 M.Ford rush left for 1 yard gain to the STA10 (#7 K.House; #18 J.Patterson), out of bounds PENALTY UNC Offside (#8 S.Vilbert) 5 yards from STA09 to STA14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 5
OWN 14
+4
70.1%
(08:17) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STA18 (#6 D.Robinson; #8 S.Vilbert)Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+7
70.0%
(07:31) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush right for 7 yards gain to the STA25 (#2 A.Simpson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.1%
(06:51) Shotgun #2 E.Brown sacked for loss of 15 yards to the STA10 (#2 A.Simpson), fumble by #2 E.Brown recovered by UNC #8 S.Vilbert at STA10 #8 S.Vilbert return 3 yards to the STA07 (#33 C.Tabb)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4672% → 71%
Q1 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
71.9%
(06:45) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 2 yards loss to the STA09 (#11 T.Tafiti)Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.9%
(06:03) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short middle to #19 J.Johnson thrown to STA00 QB hurried by #35 M.Rose and #97 Z.RowellSimilar
Q1 5:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.6%
(06:00) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short right thrown to STA01 QB hurried by #11 T.TafitiSimilar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
71.2%
(05:50) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 05:49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:3529% → 30%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
71.1%
(05:44) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 5 yards gain to the STA21 (#7 K.House; #92 C.Mims)Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
71.0%
(05:00) #20 M.Ford rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STA24 (#2 A.Simpson; #91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+10
71.1%
(04:20) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short middle to #3 C.Williams caught at STA29, for 10 yards to the STA34 (#16 C.Bryson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
70.7%
(03:34) #26 S.Irvin rush right for 0 yards to the STA34 (#7 K.House), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
70.7%
(02:54) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short right to #3 C.Williams caught at STA39, for 9 yards to the STA43 (#29 M.Allen)Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
69.6%
(02:16) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STA46 (#8 S.Vilbert; #92 C.Mims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
69.4%
(01:34) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short right to #88 B.Blackburn caught at STA47, for 11 yards to the UNC43 (#29 M.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
69.1%
(00:52) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC41 (#2 A.Simpson; #92 C.Mims)Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
69.0%
(00:08) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short right to #0 C.High thrown to UNC39Similar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
69.1%
(00:06) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Williams thrown to UNC33Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
70.1%
(00:00) #37 A.Flintoft punt 32 yards to the UNC09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -57 yds · 2:3570% → 69%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
70.0%
(15:00) #28 B.Hall rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNC12 (#35 M.Rose), out of bounds PENALTY UNC Holding (#1 J.Shipp) 4 yards from UNC09 to UNC05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 14
OWN 5
-2
70.0%
(14:36) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UNC03 (#45 O.Staples; #30 E.Dubre)Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 16
OWN 3
+1
69.8%
(13:53) #28 B.Hall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC04 (#45 O.Staples; #35 M.Rose)Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 15
OWN 4
+12
69.2%
(13:08) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UNC16 (#0 J.Galvan; #5 J.Green)Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
68.8%
(12:30) #96 T.Maginness punt 44 yards to the STA40, out of bounds at STA40 PENALTY STA Holding (#30 E.Dubre) 10 yards from STA40 to STA30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3230% → 29%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
70.0%
(12:25) Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush middle for 5 yards gain to the STA35 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-3
69.4%
(11:45) Shotgun #2 E.Brown sacked for loss of 3 yards to the STA32 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
70.5%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete deep right to #13 L.Thorpe thrown to UNC44 QB hurried by #2 A.SimpsonSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+5
70.9%
(10:57) #37 A.Flintoft punt 54 yards to the UNC14 #9 J.Green return 5 yards to the UNC19 (#41 A.Pulsipher)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:1470% → 70%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
69.8%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at UNC26, for 12 yards to the UNC31 (#22 C.Ojarikre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
70.0%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #86 M.Tucker caught at UNC35, for 4 yards to the UNC35 (#5 J.Green)Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+12
70.4%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UNC47 (#21 S.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.3%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep left to #8 K.Paysour thrown to STA14Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
71.0%
(09:34) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 8 yards gain to the STA45 (#23 H.Barth) PENALTY UNC Holding (#58 A.Blaske) 10 yards from UNC47 to UNC37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 20
OWN 37
+8
69.8%
(09:14) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at UNC44, for 8 yards to the UNC45 (#39 C.Eckhardt)Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-15
69.5%
(08:36) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 15 yards to the UNC30 (#35 M.Rose), fumble by #7 G.Lopez recovered by STA #23 H.Barth at UNC30, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0833% → 31%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
66.7%
(08:23) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC26 (#94 I.Johnson; #31 W.Hardy)Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
66.9%
(07:46) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC23 (#31 W.Hardy; #94 I.Johnson)Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
67.6%
(07:00) Shotgun #34 C.Hampton rush middle for 0 yards to the UNC23 (#91 L.Jackson; #9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
68.7%
(06:14) #13 E.Kenney field goal attempt from 41 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 A.Flintoft, LS: #93 P.Warford), clock 06:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3570% → 69%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
70.4%
(06:11) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC23, for 0 yards to the UNC23 (#23 H.Barth)Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
70.0%
(05:34) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNC31 (#29 D.Davis; #32 M.Leigber)Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
69.9%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.June rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC32 (#11 T.Tafiti)Similar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
69.3%
(04:34) #96 T.Maginness punt 44 yards to the STA24 fair catch by #13 L.Thorpe at STA24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
22 plays · 56 yds · 4:1830% → 41%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
69.7%
(04:27) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #0 C.High caught at STA39, for 15 yards to the STA39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
68.3%
(03:54) Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the STA44 (#92 C.Mims)Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
67.6%
(03:18) Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush middle for 0 yards to the STA44 (#6 D.Robinson)Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+7
67.5%
(02:33) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short right to #25 M.Brown caught at STA50, for 7 yards to the UNC49 (#21 K.Cost), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
66.6%
(01:58) #20 M.Ford rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNC46 (#7 K.House)Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
66.1%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #20 M.Ford caught at STA50, for 8 yards to the UNC38 (#7 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
65.9%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete deep left to #3 C.Williams thrown to UNC05Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
65.9%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short middle to #0 C.High caught at UNC35, for 4 yards to the UNC34 (#7 K.House), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+6
66.2%
(01:02) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #3 C.Williams caught at UNC30, for 6 yards to the UNC28 (#29 M.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
66.5%
(00:56) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #86 S.Roush caught at UNC25, for 3 yards to the UNC25, out of bounds at UNC25Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-7
66.5%
(00:54) Shotgun #2 E.Brown sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UNC32 (#8 S.Vilbert) PENALTY STA Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+7
69.9%
(00:31) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Williams thrown to UNC25 PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (#29 M.Allen) 7 yards from UNC32 to UNC25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
66.3%
(00:23) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short right to #0 C.High caught at UNC17, for 8 yards to the UNC17 (#31 W.Hardy), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
66.3%
(00:18) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short left to #0 C.High thrown to UNC00Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+2
66.8%
(00:18) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #0 C.High caught at UNC15, for 2 yards to the UNC15 (#7 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
65.3%
(00:08) Shotgun #2 E.Brown sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UNC20 (#40 T.Thompson)Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+38
58.6%
Emmet Kenney 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:0860% → 59%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.6%
(14:58) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC40, for 15 yards to the UNC40 (#29 D.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
61.3%
PENALTY UNC Illegal Snap (#58 A.Blaske) 5 yards from UNC40 to UNC35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-1
58.6%
(14:03) Shotgun #12 D.June rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNC34 (#5 J.Green; #98 Z.Buckey)Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+4
58.0%
(13:27) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #9 J.Green caught at UNC35, for 4 yards to the UNC38 (#6 C.Wright), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+18
56.9%
(12:47) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #37 D.Gause caught at UNC40, for 18 yards to the STA44 (#35 M.Rose), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
61.4%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STA41 (#91 C.Patterson; #11 T.Tafiti)Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-1
61.2%
(11:49) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 1 yard loss to the STA42 (#0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+13
60.0%
(11:15) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #37 D.Gause caught at STA44, for 13 yards to the STA29 (#35 M.Rose), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
62.2%
PENALTY UNC False Start (#1 J.Shipp) 5 yards from STA29 to STA34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+6
61.4%
(10:33) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 6 yards gain to the STA28 (#0 J.Galvan; #91 C.Patterson)Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+10
62.0%
(09:57) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 K.Paysour caught at STA22, for 10 yards to the STA18 (#9 B.Nicholson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
61.7%
(09:15) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 2 yards to the STA20 (#94 A.Franklin, #11 T.Tafiti)Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
61.4%
(08:31) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 0 yards to the STA20 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+20
58.7%
Davion Gause 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1047% → 47%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
53.2%
(07:41) #33 C.Tabb rush right for 25 yards gain to the STA50 (#7 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
50
+1
49.5%
(07:00) Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC49 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-11
49.1%
(06:19) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short right to #20 M.Ford thrown to STA46 QB hurried by #2 A.Simpson PENALTY STA Intentional Grounding (#2 E.Brown)Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+10
52.7%
(06:13) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #86 S.Roush caught at STA43, for 10 yards to the STA50 (#18 J.Patterson)Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 10
50
0
53.2%
(05:36) #37 A.Flintoft punt 45 yards to the UNC05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 3:0554% → 50%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
53.8%
PENALTY UNC False Start (#73 W.O'Steen) 2 yards from UNC05 to UNC03. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 12
OWN 3
0
53.7%
(05:25) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Paysour thrown to UNC32 QB hurried by #11 T.Tafiti. #75 B.Marceau-Olayinka injured on the playSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+7
53.5%
(05:20) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC07, for 7 yards to the UNC10 (#21 S.Edwards)Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+9
51.6%
(04:40) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at UNC17, for 9 yards to the UNC19 (#9 B.Nicholson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
53.6%
(04:15) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC30, for 11 yards to the UNC30, out of bounds at UNC30 PENALTY UNC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#73 W.O'Steen) 5 yards from UNC19 to UNC14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+3
53.1%
(03:56) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC17 (#11 T.Tafiti)Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+15
52.5%
(03:12) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Paysour thrown to STA45 PENALTY STA Pass Interference (#6 C.Wright) 15 yards from UNC17 to UNC32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
53.6%
(03:08) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #9 J.Green caught at UNC32, for 2 yards to the UNC34 (#39 C.Eckhardt)Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
53.4%
(02:41) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Paysour thrown to STA47 broken up by #39 C.EckhardtSimilar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
51.9%
(02:35) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left thrown to STA48 QB hurried by #35 M.Rose and #30 E.DubreSimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
50.0%
(02:28) #96 T.Maginness punt 51 yards to the STA15, out of bounds at STA15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:0650% → 50%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
49.6%
(02:20) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STA16 (#92 C.Mims). #92 C.Mims injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
49.8%
(01:51) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short right to #3 C.Williams caught at STA20, for 4 yards to the STA20 (#29 M.Allen)Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 5
OWN 20
-13
50.4%
(01:15) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass intercepted by #7 K.House at STA34 QB hurried by #6 D.Robinson #7 K.House return 13 yards to the STA21 (#11 B.Farrell) PENALTY UNC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#2 A.Simpson) 15 yards from STA21 to STA36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FG
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4957% → 53%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
57.2%
(01:05) Shotgun #12 D.June rush middle for 0 yards to the STA36 (#35 M.Rose) PENALTY UNC Holding (#66 J.Hall) 10 yards from STA36 to STA46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 20
OPP 46
-1
54.4%
(00:54) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 1 yard loss to the STA47 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 22
OPP 47
+6
53.8%
(00:16) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC48, for 6 yards to the STA41 (#5 J.Green; #94 A.Franklin)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+11
52.2%
Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #8 K.Paysour caught at STA33, for 11 yards to the STA30 (#6 C.Wright)Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
53.2%
Rece Verhoff 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0752% → 50%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.7%
(14:15) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short right to #11 B.Farrell thrown to STA30Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
47.8%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #11 B.Farrell thrown to STA44 QB hurried by #8 S.VilbertSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
49.3%
(14:06) Shotgun #2 E.Brown sacked for loss of 7 yards to the STA18 (#40 T.Thompson)Similar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+5
50.9%
(13:19) #37 A.Flintoft punt 44 yards to the UNC38 #31 W.Hardy return 5 yards to the UNC43 (#18 M.Libman; #28 S.Neely III) PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from STA18 to STA23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
50.5%
(13:10) #37 A.Flintoft punt 42 yards to the UNC35 fair catch by #9 J.Green at UNC35 PENALTY STA Illegal Motion (#18 M.Libman) 5 yards from UNC35 to UNC40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:5454% → 51%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
54.0%
(13:04) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep right to #9 J.Green thrown to STA20Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
50.1%
(12:59) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #27 J.McGill caught at UNC42, for 5 yards to the UNC45 (#75 B.Marceau-Olayinka)Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+55
51.1%
Jordan Shipp 55 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3156% → 69%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.9%
(12:00) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short right to #0 C.High thrown to STA36Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.1%
(11:57) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short middle to #86 S.Roush caught at STA27, for 4 yards to the STA29 (#21 K.Cost)Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
44.2%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short middle to #0 C.High caught at STA43, for 23 yards to the UNC48 (#5 G.Gibson; #12 G.Smith III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
36.4%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC45 (#5 G.Gibson)Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
35.6%
(10:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC42 (#29 M.Allen; #7 K.House)Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+19
35.4%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short right to #20 M.Ford caught at UNC43, for 19 yards to the UNC23 (#31 W.Hardy), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
32.5%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNC15 (#21 K.Cost)Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+14
31.7%
(08:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #0 C.High caught at UNC12, for 14 yards to the UNC01 (#29 M.Allen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.0%
Cole Tabb 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:2244% → 39%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
43.7%
(08:21) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC15 (#21 S.Edwards)Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
43.5%
(07:48) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC18 (#0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+12
39.1%
(07:05) #85 S.Clower rush right for 12 yards gain to the UNC30 (#6 C.Wright), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY STA Tripping (#39 C.Eckhardt) 15 yards from UNC30 to UNC45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
45.6%
(06:34) #37 D.Gause rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNC47 (#45 O.Staples)Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
46.1%
(05:55) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC49 (#35 M.Rose; #0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-4
42.7%
(05:09) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush left for 4 yards loss to the UNC45 (#0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
38.5%
(05:04) #96 T.Maginness punt 55 yards to the STA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:0170% → 88%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
30.5%
(04:57) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #86 S.Roush caught at STA21, for 12 yards to the STA32 (#2 A.Simpson; #7 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
29.1%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #20 M.Ford thrown to STA34 QB hurried by #91 L.JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
29.8%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short right to #86 S.Roush caught at STA32, for 8 yards to the STA40 (#15 T.Miller)Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
25.5%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 5 yards gain to the STA45 (#94 I.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
23.9%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete deep left to #11 B.Farrell thrown to UNC20 PENALTY STA Pass Interference (#11 B.Farrell) 15 yards from STA45 to STA30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+12
26.2%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short middle to #86 S.Roush caught at STA39, for 12 yards to the STA42 (#7 K.House)Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+7
23.4%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short middle to #0 C.High caught at STA44, for 7 yards to the STA49, out of bounds at STA49Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
19.8%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short middle to #3 C.Williams caught at UNC46, for 8 yards to the UNC43 (#7 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
14.5%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short middle to #11 B.Farrell caught at UNC25, for 19 yards to the UNC24 (#18 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
11.6%
CJ Williams 24 Yd pass from Elijah Brown (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:5840% → 25%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
39.8%
(01:44) #37 D.Gause rush middle for 3 yards loss to the STA50 (#29 D.Davis)Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 13
50
+4
36.1%
(01:44) #37 D.Gause rush right for 4 yards gain to the STA46 (#75 B.Marceau-Olayinka)Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+3
36.7%
(01:39) #37 D.Gause rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STA43 (#91 C.Patterson; #0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
25.3%
(00:52) #96 T.Maginness punt 23 yards to the STA20, out of bounds at STA20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:4192% → 91%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
8.3%
(00:42) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short right to #86 S.Roush thrown to STA20 broken up by #40 T.ThompsonSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
8.1%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short right to #0 C.High caught at STA32, for 12 yards to the STA32 (#15 T.Miller), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
7.2%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #3 C.Williams thrown to STA44 broken up by #7 K.HouseSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
7.4%
PENALTY STA False Start (#0 C.High) 5 yards from STA32 to STA27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 15
OWN 27
-10
7.4%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown sacked for loss of 10 yards to the STA17 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 25
OWN 17
+9
8.6%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #0 C.High caught at STA21, for 9 yards to the STA26 (#15 T.Miller), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 16
OWN 26
+8
8.8%
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #0 C.High caught at STA24, for 16 yards to the STA42 lateral to #20 M.Ford for 8 yards gain to the STA42 (#15 T.Miller), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+91.8
FG · Q2 0:00
Emmet Kenney 38 Yd Field Goal
-9.1
TD · Q4 1:48
CJ Williams 24 Yd pass from Elijah Brown (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com