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ND

Notre Dame 25 at Boston College 10

BC
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:22: Reed Harris 25 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick) — BC win probability +3.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:29: (04:30) Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short middle to #85 K.Chudzinski thrown to ND 00 — BC win probability +3.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q3 3:36: Luca Lombardo 25 Yd Field Goal — BC win probability +4.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q3 0:32: Jeremiyah Love 3 Yd Run (Marcello Diomede PAT failed) — ND win probability +9.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:07: Jeremiyah Love 94 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick) — ND win probability +12.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:03BC 4th & 12 at BC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:04ND 4th & 3 at BC 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:12BC 4th & 9 at ND 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52ND 4th & 6 at BC 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:23BC 4th & 2 at ND 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:23BC 4th & 1 at ND 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−2.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:04BC 4th & 1 at ND 23, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−2.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−9.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:36BC 4th & 7 at ND 7, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−10.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:43BC 4th & 12 at BC 23, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:38ND 4th & 2 at BC 37, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:29ND 4th & 2 at BC 46, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:51ND 4th & 12 at BC 45, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 1:53ND Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:22BC Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:32ND Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:07ND Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:5697% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
3.2%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #0 M.Fields thrown to BC 45 broken up by #7 C.Davis PENALTY BC Pass Interference (#7 C.Davis) 15 yards from ND 25 to ND 40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
3.2%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Love thrown to ND 47 QB hurried by #55 K.WilliamsSimilar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
3.2%
(14:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #2 W.Pauling caught at ND 39, for 4 yards to the ND 44 (#1 D.Crouch)Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
3.3%
(14:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #2 W.Pauling thrown to ND 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:114% → 4%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
3.5%
(13:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 2 yards loss to the BC 28 (#93 J.Dawson; #5 B.Traore)Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
3.5%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Lonergan pass incomplete short right to #11 L.Bond thrown to BC 30 QB hurried by #93 J.DawsonSimilar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
3.5%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Lonergan pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Skeete thrown to BC 38 broken up by #9 T.Johnson QB hurried by #4 J.AusberrySimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
3.5%
(13:03) #28 S.Florio punt 42 yards to the ND 30 fair catch by #6 J.Faison at ND 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:5396% → 96%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
3.6%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush right for 1 yard gain to the ND 31 (#0 O.Thornton; #52 C.Marable Jr.)Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
3.7%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush right for 2 yards gain to the ND 33 (#2 K.Price; #8 B.Steele)Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+5
3.8%
PENALTY ND False Start (#64 J.Otting) 5 yards from ND 33 to ND 28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+15
3.9%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #9 E.Raridon caught at ND 42, for 15 yards to the ND 43 (#2 K.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
4.0%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #2 W.Pauling caught at BC 40, for 17 yards to the BC 40 (#30 T.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.1%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Faison thrown to BC 10Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
4.2%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #4 J.Love caught at BC 41, for 1 yard to the BC 39 (#0 O.Thornton)Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+6
4.3%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush right for 6 yards gain to the BC 33 (#55 K.Williams; #7 C.Davis)Similar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
4.5%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short middle to #2 W.Pauling thrown to BC 30 broken up by #33 O.McGowan, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:445% → 6%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
4.6%
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush right for 2 yards gain to the BC 35 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
4.8%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Lonergan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BC 38 (#5 B.Traore)Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+13
5.0%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Lonergan pass complete short left to #11 L.Bond caught at BC 39, for 13 yards to the ND 49 (#7 J.Stroman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
5.3%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Lonergan pass complete short left to #11 L.Bond caught at BC 46, for 5 yards loss to the BC 46 (#40 J.Burnham)Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+7
5.4%
(06:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Lonergan pass complete short right to #2 T.Richard caught at BC 43, for 7 yards to the ND 47, out of bounds at ND 47Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-1
5.6%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush right for 1 yard loss to the ND 48 (#93 J.Dawson)Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+4
5.7%
(05:21) #28 S.Florio punt 37 yards to the ND 11 muffed by #6 J.Faison at ND 11 recovered by ND #6 J.Faison at ND 15, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:1394% → 94%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
5.7%
(05:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ND 17 (#55 K.Williams; #33 O.McGowan)Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+10
5.9%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush right for 10 yards gain to the ND 27 (#0 O.Thornton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
6.1%
(04:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush right for 4 yards gain to the ND 31 (#91 M.Byerson; #0 O.Thornton)Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
6.3%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush left for 3 yards gain to the ND 34 (#30 T.Green; #7 C.Davis)Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+8
6.5%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #2 W.Pauling caught at ND 38, for 8 yards to the ND 42 (#30 T.Green; #20 M.Upton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
6.4%
(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ND 46 (#0 O.Thornton; #99 M.Bumpus)Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+10
6.5%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass intercepted by #16 I.Farris at BC 06 QB hurried by #0 O.Thornton #16 I.Farris return 20 yards to the BC 26 (#0 M.Fields) PENALTY BC Holding (#16 I.Farris) 10 yards from ND 46 to BC 44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
6.8%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right to #0 M.Fields thrown to BC 39Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
6.8%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BC 43 (#15 Q.Hutchins)Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+3
7.1%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #24 J.Price caught at BC 48, for 3 yards to the BC 40 (#7 C.Davis; #15 Q.Hutchins)Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+40
6.4%
CJ Carr pass to M. Fields for 40 yds, for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:307% → 7%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.7%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Lonergan pass complete short middle to #1 J.Skeete caught at BC 21, for 6 yards to the BC 31 (#9 T.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
7.0%
PENALTY BC False Start 5 yards from BC 31 to BC 26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
6.9%
(14:17) Shotgun #9 D.Lonergan pass complete short middle to #17 J.Franklin caught at BC 31, for 8 yards to the BC 34 (#9 T.Johnson)Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
7.2%
(13:45) Shotgun #5 J.McDonald rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BC 38 (#44 J.Tuihalamaka), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
7.3%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Lonergan pass intercepted by #9 T.Johnson at ND 36 broken up by #8 A.Shuler, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:2993% → 93%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+46
6.7%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #6 J.Faison caught at BC 25, for 46 yards to the BC 18 (#16 I.Farris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
6.5%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BC 14 (#2 K.Price)Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+5
6.7%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush right for 5 yards gain to the BC 09 (#33 O.McGowan; #30 T.Green)Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+4
6.9%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BC 05 (#7 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
7.0%
(10:43) Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 0 yards to the BC 05 fumbled by #24 J.Price at BC 03 forced by #0 O.Thornton recovered by BC #41 F.Bate at BC 05, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 68 yds · 6:578% → 11%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
8.0%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James rush middle for 0 yards to the BC 05 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+13
8.0%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short middle to #11 L.Bond caught at BC 15, for 13 yards to the BC 18 (#9 T.Johnson; #8 A.Shuler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
8.3%
(09:19) Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BC 23 (#5 B.Traore)Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
8.5%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BC 27 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+5
8.4%
(08:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BC 32 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
8.8%
(07:40) Shotgun #3 G.James rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC 34 (#3 J.Sneed)Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-6
9.0%
(07:02) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short right to #2 T.Richard caught at BC 28, for 6 yards loss to the BC 28 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa) PENALTY ND UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa) 15 yards from BC 28 to BC 43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
9.7%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short left to #11 L.Bond thrown to ND 43 QB hurried by #47 J.OnyeSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
9.5%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short left to #17 J.Franklin caught at BC 47, for 4 yards to the BC 47 (#15 L.Moore; #27 K.Viliamu-Asa). #71 J.Bowry injured on the playSimilar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+18
9.9%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short middle to #11 L.Bond caught at ND 44, for 18 yards to the ND 35 (#15 L.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
11.1%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.McDonald rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ND 34 (#56 E.Hughes)Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+8
11.4%
(04:41) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short right to #11 L.Bond caught at ND 28, for 8 yards to the ND 26 (#8 A.Shuler), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-1
11.2%
(04:02) Shotgun #5 J.McDonald rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ND 27 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
10.9%
(03:26) Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short right to #17 J.Franklin thrown to ND 24 broken up by #28 L.Talich, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:1791% → 93%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
9.4%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #4 J.Love caught at ND 21, for 14 yards to the ND 41 (#99 M.Bumpus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
9.0%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ND 44 (#8 B.Steele; #15 Q.Hutchins)Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+12
9.1%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #4 J.Love caught at ND 46, for 12 yards to the BC 44 (#0 O.Thornton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
7.0%
CJ Carr pass to W. Pauling for 44 yds, for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) (L. Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:268% → 13%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.8%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short left to #1 J.Skeete caught at BC 25, for 4 yards to the BC 29 (#24 M.Zackery IV)Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
8.1%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BC 21 (#95 B.Young, #27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+22
7.7%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete deep left to #11 L.Bond caught at BC 41, for 22 yards to the BC 43 (#28 L.Talich; #15 L.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
8.6%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short right to #11 L.Bond caught at ND 42, for 16 yards to the ND 41 (#0 D.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
8.8%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short middle to #1 J.Skeete caught at ND 25, for 20 yards to the ND 21 QB hurried by #3 J.Sneed (#28 L.Talich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
9.2%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James sacked for loss of 4 yards to the ND 25 (#3 J.Sneed)Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+25
12.8%
Reed Harris 25 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0889% → 92%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
10.9%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #6 J.Faison caught at BC 47, for 19 yards to the BC 46 (#16 I.Farris), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BC Roughing The Passer (#15 Q.Hutchins) 15 yards from BC 46 to BC 31, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
9.4%
(00:06) No Huddle #13 C.Carr pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+14
7.8%
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #9 E.Raridon caught at BC 25, for 14 yards to the BC 17, out of bounds at BC 17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+35
7.8%
(00:01) #18 E.Schmidt field goal attempt from 35 yards NO GOOD (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12FG
23 plays · 74 yds · 11:0713% → 26%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
12.5%
(14:54) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short middle to #17 J.Franklin caught at BC 20, for 7 yards to the BC 26 (#8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
12.6%
(14:18) Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC 28 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
12.5%
(13:43) Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC 30 (#34 D.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
13.1%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC 32 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
13.2%
(12:42) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short middle to #1 J.Skeete caught at BC 35, for 4 yards to the BC 36 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+21
13.8%
(12:05) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short left to #85 K.Chudzinski caught at BC 39, for 21 yards to the ND 43, out of bounds at ND 43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
15.7%
(11:23) Shotgun #3 G.James rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ND 42 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+8
16.1%
(10:46) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short left to #2 T.Richard caught at ND 41, for 8 yards to the ND 34 (#4 J.Ausberry)Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
16.4%
(10:10) Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 0 yards to the ND 34 (#28 L.Talich)Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
16.0%
(09:27) Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ND 32 (#56 E.Hughes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
18.4%
(09:01) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short middle to #1 J.Skeete caught at ND 30, for 3 yards to the ND 29 (#4 J.Ausberry)Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+6
18.8%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short left to #17 J.Franklin caught at ND 26, for 6 yards to the ND 23 (#4 J.Ausberry; #15 L.Moore)Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
18.1%
(07:46) Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 0 yards to the ND 23 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
17.6%
(07:10) Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ND 21 (#9 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
20.4%
(06:32) Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short left to #85 K.Chudzinski thrown to ND 15 broken up by #34 D.BowenSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-1
20.5%
(06:27) Shotgun #3 G.James sacked for loss of 1 yard to the ND 22 (#40 J.Burnham)Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+8
19.6%
(05:43) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short middle to #17 J.Franklin caught at ND 16, for 8 yards to the ND 14 (#0 D.Smith)Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+7
18.5%
(05:00) Shotgun #3 G.James sacked for loss of 11 yards to the ND 25 (#40 J.Burnham) PENALTY ND Personal Foul (#40 J.Burnham) 7 yards from ND 14 to ND 07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
21.9%
(04:30) Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short middle to #85 K.Chudzinski thrown to ND 00Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
22.0%
(04:28) Shotgun #3 G.James rush middle for 0 yards to the ND 07 (#41 D.Hinish; #27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
21.2%
(03:44) Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short left to #17 J.Franklin thrown to ND 00Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
26.0%
Luca Lombardo 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5477% → 90%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
22.7%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at ND 32, for 11 yards to the ND 36 (#16 I.Farris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
22.2%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush left for 9 yards gain to the ND 45 (#15 Q.Hutchins) PENALTY BC Offside declinedSimilar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
21.1%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush right for 4 yards gain to the ND 49 (#2 K.Price; #15 Q.Hutchins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
21.6%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep left to #9 E.Raridon caught at BC 24, for 30 yards to the BC 21 (#2 K.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
19.3%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #0 M.Fields caught at BC 15, for 12 yards to the BC 09 QB hurried by #15 Q.Hutchins (#7 C.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BC Roughing The Passer (#15 Q.Hutchins) 5 yards from BC 09 to BC 04, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
19.7%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush left for 1 yard gain to the BC 03 (#55 K.Williams; #41 F.Bate)Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.0%
Jeremiyah Love 3 Yd Run (Marcello Diomede PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14INT
15 plays · 50 yds · 3:5714% → 17%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
13.5%
(00:25) Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete deep left to #4 R.Harris thrown to ND 28 broken up by #15 L.MooreSimilar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
13.2%
(00:17) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short left to #11 L.Bond caught at BC 31, for 7 yards to the BC 34 (#8 A.Shuler), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
13.9%
PENALTY ND Offside (#93 J.Dawson) 5 yards from BC 34 to BC 39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
14.3%
(14:58) Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush left for 2 yards loss to the BC 37 (#40 J.Burnham)Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+22
13.5%
G. James pass to J. Skeete for 22 yds for a 1ST down, G. James fumbled, forced by J. Sneed, recovered by J. Skeete, J. Skeete returnedSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
15.6%
(13:39) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short right to #2 T.Richard caught at ND 45, for 0 yards to the ND 41 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
15.8%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short right thrown to ND 35 QB hurried by #47 J.OnyeSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+15
14.9%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short right thrown to ND 34 QB hurried by #3 J.Sneed PENALTY ND Personal Foul (#3 J.Sneed) 15 yards from ND 41 to ND 26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
17.2%
PENALTY ND Delay Of Game 5 yards from ND 26 to ND 21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+5
17.1%
PENALTY BC False Start (#53 D.Allick) 5 yards from ND 21 to ND 26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
17.2%
(12:49) Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush right for 1 yard loss to the ND 27 (#4 J.Ausberry), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+4
17.5%
(12:09) Shotgun #3 G.James rush left for 4 yards gain to the ND 23 (#4 J.Ausberry), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 7
OPP 23
-2
16.6%
(11:27) Shotgun #3 G.James pass intercepted by #8 A.Shuler at ND 04 QB hurried by #4 J.Ausberry #8 A.Shuler return 2 yards to the ND 06, out of bounds at ND 06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
1 play · 94 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+94
4.2%
Jeremiyah Love 94 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:187% → 5%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.9%
(11:06) Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short left to #4 R.Harris thrown to BC 24 QB hurried by #40 J.BurnhamSimilar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.3%
(11:00) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short left to #1 J.Skeete caught at BC 27, for 3 yards to the BC 28 (#15 L.Moore), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
5.2%
(10:24) Shotgun #3 G.James sacked for loss of 5 yards to the BC 23 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
5.0%
(09:47) #28 S.Florio punt 22 yards to the BC 45, out of bounds at BC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5996% → 96%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
3.7%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush left for 2 yards gain to the BC 43 (#52 C.Marable Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
3.7%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at BC 38, for 6 yards to the BC 37 (#16 I.Farris)Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
3.8%
(08:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 0 yards to the BC 37 (#99 M.Bumpus)Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 2
OPP 37
-4
3.9%
(07:38) No Huddle #4 J.Love rush left for 4 yards loss to the BC 41 (#33 O.McGowan), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 13 yds · 3:105% → 3%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
5.2%
(07:37) Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush right for 6 yards gain to the BC 47 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
5.3%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short middle to #17 J.Franklin caught at ND 48, for 5 yards to the ND 48 (#9 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
5.4%
(06:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Richard thrown to ND 45 broken up by #47 J.OnyeSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
5.4%
(06:47) Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short right to #17 J.Franklin caught at ND 41, for 8 yards to the ND 40 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+2
5.5%
(06:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush right for 2 yards gain to the ND 38 (#34 D.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
5.3%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short left to #4 R.Harris caught at ND 36, for 3 yards to the ND 35 QB hurried by #47 J.Onye (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+11
5.9%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short middle to #1 J.Skeete caught at ND 30, for 11 yards to the ND 24 (#34 D.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
5.5%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ND 21, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+10
4.3%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short middle to #85 K.Chudzinski thrown to ND 16 broken up by #9 T.Johnson PENALTY BC Holding (#53 D.Allick) 10 yards from ND 21 to ND 31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 17
OPP 31
+15
4.0%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete short left to #88 D.Pough thrown to ND 16 PENALTY BC Intentional Grounding (#3 G.James)Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 25
OPP 39
-7
3.5%
(04:40) Shotgun #3 G.James sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ND 46 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 32
OPP 46
0
3.0%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass incomplete deep right to #4 R.Harris thrown to ND 06 broken up by #0 D.Smith, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 9 yds · 2:2298% → 98%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
2.4%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to #0 M.Fields thrown to BC 08Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
2.4%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BC 45 (#0 O.Thornton)Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-1
2.3%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BC 46 (#55 K.Williams)Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+3
2.3%
(03:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #4 J.Love caught at BC 47, for 3 yards to the BC 43 (#15 Q.Hutchins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
2.1%
(02:55) Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 2 yards loss to the BC 45 (#0 O.Thornton)Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
2.0%
(02:51) Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 0 yards to the BC 45 (#52 C.Marable Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
2.1%
(02:08) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to #2 W.Pauling thrown to BC 20 broken up by #33 O.McGowanSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
1.8%
(02:00) #16 J.Rendell punt 44 yards to the BC 01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
0.8%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass intercepted by #9 T.Johnson at BC 22, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2999% → 98%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
1.5%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 6 yards loss to the BC 28 (#55 K.Williams)Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+2
1.6%
(00:54) Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BC 26 (#52 C.Marable Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 14
OPP 26
-1
1.7%
(00:06) Kneel down by #13 C.Carr at BC 27 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:07
Jeremiyah Love 94 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)
-12.4
TD · Q3 0:32
Jeremiyah Love 3 Yd Run (Marcello Diomede PAT failed)
-9.7
FG · Q3 3:36
Luca Lombardo 25 Yd Field Goal
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com