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LOU

Louisville 28 at Virginia Tech 16

VT
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:07 · (03:03) Shotgun #13 D.Adams rush middle for 0 yards to the VT 22 (#98 K.Huisman), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior−14.5Home team on offense+5.1Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:57: (01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:57 #17 J.Love kick attempt good (H: #95 N.Veltsistas, LS: #96 C.Epling) — VT win probability +5.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:07: (09:03) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete deep middle to #5 C.Lacy caught at VT 01, for 24 yards to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:07, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav) — LOU win probability +14.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:01: (04:52) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:01 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav) — LOU win probability +18.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:22: Timeout Virginia Tech, clock 02:22 — VT win probability +13.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:16: (02:10) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 24 yards gain to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:16, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav) — LOU win probability +19.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 5
  1. Q1 13:40VT 4th & 9 at VT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:53VT 4th & 6 at VT 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:11VT 4th & 5 at VT 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:05LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 11, down 2
    Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:07LOU 4th & 1 at VT 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−2.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−8.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:50VT 4th & 6 at LOU 48, up 9
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:21LOU 4th & 4 at VT 48, down 9
    Close callPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:02VT 4th & 4 at VT 16, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:42VT 4th & 10 at VT 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−3.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:07VT 4th & 14 at LOU 45, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−2.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:05LOU 4th & 2 at VT 37, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−4.5
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:45VT 4th & 10 at VT 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:09LOU 4th & 5 at VT 45, up 5
    Close callPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−4.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:57VT 4th & 3 at LOU 38, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%−3.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−6.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:47VT 4th & 8 at VT 27, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:58LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:57VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:07LOU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:01LOU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:16LOU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:0626% → 26%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
25.8%
(14:50) Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush left for 10 yards gain to the VT 35 (#25 T.Holloway; #12 K.Perry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
26.1%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VT 36 (#34 T.Quinn; #9 A.Watts)Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
26.2%
(13:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #0 A.Greene thrown to VT 48Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
26.2%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #0 A.Greene thrown to VT 42Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+20
26.3%
(13:43) #95 N.Veltsistas punt 46 yards to the UL 18 #5 C.Lacy return 20 yards to the UL 38 (#24 J.Keller; #96 C.Epling)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:3674% → 74%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
26.3%
(13:40) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UL 48, out of bounds at UL 48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
26.0%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 52 yards gain to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:58, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5126% → 27%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.1%
(12:48) Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush left for 2 yards gain to the VT 27, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
26.3%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short right to #2 T.Heath caught at VT 31, for 7 yards to the VT 34 (#4 J.Mack)Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
26.4%
(11:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VT 37 (#9 A.Watts; #27 J.Evans Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
26.6%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VT 38 (#11 T.Capers; #17 A.Green)Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
26.7%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush right for 3 yards gain to the VT 41 (#27 J.Evans Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
26.8%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete deep right to #0 A.Greene thrown to UL 30Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
26.6%
(09:50) #95 N.Veltsistas punt 59 yards to the UL 00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:4873% → 73%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
26.6%
(09:41) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at UL 17, for 7 yards to the UL 27 (#18 I.Cash)Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+7
26.5%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UL 34 (#94 E.Fall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
26.4%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at UL 33, for 1 yard to the UL 35 (#14 S.Robinson; #31 J.Abbey)Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+2
26.6%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL 37 (#18 I.Cash; #16 N.Chambers)Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+5
26.6%
(07:11) PENALTY UL False Start (#5 C.Lacy) 5 yards from UL 37 to UL 32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-18
27.0%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass intercepted by #18 I.Cash at VT 45 #18 I.Cash return 18 yards to the UL 37 (#7 M.Moss)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:4228% → 34%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
27.9%
(06:44) Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush right for 3 yards gain to the UL 34 (#27 J.Evans Jr.; #12 K.Perry)Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
28.4%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush left for 5 yards gain to the UL 29 (#23 W.Bailey)Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
28.2%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short right to #13 J.Hairston caught at UL 30, for 3 yards to the UL 26 (#12 K.Perry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
28.7%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UL 19 (#24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
28.9%
(04:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UL 14 (#24 C.Gordon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
29.0%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL 10 (#27 J.Evans Jr.)Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
29.3%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short left to #2 T.Heath caught at UL 13, for 2 yards to the UL 08 (#4 J.Mack; #24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+3
28.6%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush right for 3 yards gain to the UL 05 (#17 A.Green; #24 C.Gordon)Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
28.2%
(02:16) No Huddle #1 K.Drones rush right for 0 yards to the UL 05 (#90 R.Konga) PENALTY UL Offside 2 yards from UL 05 to UL 03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.9%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:57 #17 J.Love kick attempt good (H: #95 N.Veltsistas, LS: #96 C.Epling)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6SF
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0169% → 65%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.5%
(01:46) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short right to #22 K.Brown thrown to UL 25Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
31.7%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UL 24 (#13 K.Copeland; #33 B.Bell)Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
32.5%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete deep left to #3 D.Collins thrown to VT 35Similar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
34.7%
(00:57) #39 C.Schwartz punt 0 yards to the UL 24 blocked by #20 P.Prioleau, out of bounds at UL 00. Virginia Tech SAFETY, clock 00:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:2634% → 34%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.9%
(00:39) Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VT 27 (#95 J.Lawson; #17 A.Green)Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
34.2%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush right for 4 yards gain to the VT 31 (#25 T.Holloway; #19 J.Beadles)Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
34.1%
(14:46) Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush left for 1 yard loss to the VT 30 (#34 T.Quinn), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
33.8%
(14:14) #95 N.Veltsistas punt 68 yards to the UL 02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5065% → 63%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
35.1%
(14:01) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the UL 02 (#42 A.Stevens)Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+4
35.6%
(13:23) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL 06 (#24 J.Keller; #13 K.Copeland)Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+5
36.7%
(12:45) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at UL 11, for 5 yards to the UL 11 (#3 K.Spencer)Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
37.3%
(12:07) #93 D.Chapeau punt 43 yards to the VT 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:1938% → 48%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
37.8%
(12:05) Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short left to #13 J.Hairston caught at VT 48, for 11 yards to the UL 43 (#34 T.Quinn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
38.5%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush right for 6 yards gain to the UL 37 (#23 W.Bailey; #21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+12
38.9%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UL 25 (#24 C.Gordon), 1ST DOWN. #34 T.Quinn injured on the playSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
39.6%
(10:24) Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush left for 2 yards loss to the UL 27 (#90 R.Konga)Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+1
40.2%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short right to #13 J.Hairston caught at UL 27, for 1 yard to the UL 26 (#11 T.Capers)Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+12
46.5%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short left to #27 M.Hawkins caught at UL 31, for 12 yards to the UL 14 (#12 K.Perry), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
48.2%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short left to #9 C.Seldon caught at UL 16, for 9 yards to the UL 05 (#21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
48.2%
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short left to #9 C.Seldon caught at UL 07, for 5 yards to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:25, 1ST DOWN #17 J.Love kick attempt good (H: #95 N.Veltsistas, LS: #96 C.Epling)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:0153% → 49%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.4%
(08:15) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #5 C.Lacy caught at UL 26, for 3 yards to the UL 28 (#20 C.Woodson)Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
47.7%
(07:42) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL 31 (#20 C.Woodson)Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
48.8%
(07:06) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #0 C.Bell caught at UL 35, for 8 yards to the UL 39 (#15 B.Johnson; #94 E.Fall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
48.1%
(06:32) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short right to #15 A.Meeks thrown to VT 45Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
48.6%
(06:21) Shotgun #7 M.Moss rush left for 13 yards gain to the VT 48, out of bounds at VT 48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
47.7%
(05:47) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle to #5 C.Lacy thrown to VT 40 QB hurried by #26 A.SantiagoSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
48.5%
(05:37) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #85 N.Kurisky caught at VT 46, for 2 yards to the VT 46 (#18 I.Cash)Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+15
49.5%
(04:59) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle thrown to VT 50 broken up by #20 C.Woodson PENALTY VT Roughing The Passer (#6 J.Bass) 15 yards from VT 46 to VT 31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (04:59) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short thrown to VT 50 broken up by #20 C.Woodson PENALTY VT Roughing The Passer (#6 J.Bass) 15 yards from VT 46 to VT 31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY)Similar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
47.8%
(04:54) #5 C.Lacy rush left for 1 yard gain to the VT 30 (#20 C.Woodson)Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+8
48.5%
(04:13) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #5 C.Lacy caught at VT 26, for 8 yards to the VT 22 (#14 S.Robinson)Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
49.7%
(03:42) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the VT 22 (#98 K.Huisman)Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
51.4%
(03:03) Shotgun #13 D.Adams rush middle for 0 yards to the VT 22 (#98 K.Huisman), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:1753% → 56%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
53.0%
(03:07) Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short left to #2 T.Heath caught at VT 18, for 7 yards to the VT 29 (#4 J.Mack), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+4
55.2%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VT 33 (#17 A.Green; #34 T.Quinn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
55.1%
(01:50) Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #0 A.Greene thrown to VT 40 PENALTY UL Face Mask (#9 A.Watts) 15 yards from VT 33 to VT 48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
57.0%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VT 50 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #50 C.Lubin)Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 8
50
0
57.4%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #0 A.Greene thrown to UL 40Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 8
50
+7
56.4%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UL 43 (#34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
55.7%
(00:59) No Huddle #1 K.Drones rush middle for 0 yards to the UL 43, End Of Play PENALTY VT False Start (#15 S.Peterkin) 5 yards from UL 43 to UL 48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
55.5%
(00:50) #95 N.Veltsistas punt 38 yards to the UL 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3144% → 44%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
55.6%
(00:41) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL 16 (#21 J.Reddish)Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
55.2%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete deep left to #3 D.Collins thrown to UL 45Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+6
56.9%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #5 C.Lacy caught at UL 13, for 6 yards to the UL 22 (#21 J.Reddish; #23 T.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
55.7%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UL 17 (#94 E.Fall, #13 K.Copeland)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:1544% → 43%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
55.6%
(14:41) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at UL 31, for 13 yards to the UL 46 (#20 C.Woodson; #14 S.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
54.6%
(14:21) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at UL 50, for 5 yards to the VT 49 (#25 I.Brown-Murray)Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
54.2%
(13:49) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the VT 48 (#23 T.Williams; #20 C.Woodson)Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
55.0%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short middle to #85 N.Kurisky thrown to VT 48 broken up by #16 N.ChambersSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
57.0%
(13:17) #93 D.Chapeau punt 28 yards to the VT 20 fair catch by #11 I.Spencer at VT 20 PENALTY VT Holding (#53 W.Johnson) 10 yards from VT 20 to VT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0559% → 59%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
59.1%
(13:11) Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush right for 2 yards gain to the VT 12 (#90 R.Konga)Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+4
59.2%
(12:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VT 16 (#9 A.Watts; #21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
60.2%
(12:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #2 T.Heath thrown to VT 20Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
59.3%
(11:59) #95 N.Veltsistas punt 37 yards to the UL 47, out of bounds at UL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:3842% → 56%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
58.2%
(11:51) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #0 C.Bell caught at VT 48, for 9 yards to the VT 44 (#3 K.Spencer)Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+3
57.4%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Moss rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VT 41 (#24 J.Keller; #97 I.Hickman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
58.5%
(10:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush right for 11 yards gain to the VT 30 (#23 T.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
57.6%
(10:20) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #5 C.Lacy caught at VT 26, for 7 yards to the VT 23 (#21 J.Reddish), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-1
57.9%
(09:41) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 1 yard loss to the VT 24 (#3 K.Spencer)Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+24
43.6%
(09:03) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete deep middle to #5 C.Lacy caught at VT 01, for 24 yards to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:07, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:0549% → 48%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
48.6%
(08:51) Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush middle for 2 yards loss to the VT 10 (#23 W.Bailey; #21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+11
48.7%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush left for 11 yards gain to the VT 21 (#27 J.Evans Jr.; #21 D.Hutchinson)Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+4
48.4%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VT 25 (#11 T.Capers; #99 J.Guerad), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.2%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Seldon rush left for 3 yards gain to the VT 28 (#34 T.Quinn; #25 T.Holloway)Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
50.6%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Stewart rush left for 3 yards loss to the VT 25 (#45 D.Lowry)Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
49.1%
(05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete deep left to #3 D.Greene thrown to UL 35Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+63
48.2%
(05:51) #95 N.Veltsistas punt 43 yards to the UL 32 #5 C.Lacy return 63 yards to the VT 05 (#96 C.Epling), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2756% → 75%
Q3 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
43.6%
(05:31) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VT 02 (#13 K.Copeland; #22 K.Gilliam Jr.)Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.4%
(04:52) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:01 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:4032% → 31%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.8%
(04:52) Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VT 26 (#19 J.Beadles; #34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
31.6%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush left for 16 yards gain to the VT 42 (#34 T.Quinn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
34.6%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short right to #0 A.Greene caught at UL 47, for 17 yards to the UL 41 (#4 J.Mack), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
36.3%
(03:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Overton rush left for 0 yards to the UL 41 (#12 K.Perry)Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-4
36.4%
(02:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush left for 4 yards loss to the UL 45 fumbled by #1 K.Drones at UL 45 recovered by VT #1 K.Drones at UL 45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 14
OPP 45
0
32.8%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short middle to #11 I.Spencer thrown to UL 48 QB hurried by #27 J.Evans Jr.Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
30.6%
(02:05) #95 N.Veltsistas punt 32 yards to the UL 13, out of bounds at UL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 50 yds · 5:0270% → 73%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
29.6%
PENALTY UL False Start (#88 J.Skinner) 5 yards from UL 13 to UL 08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+20
28.7%
(01:57) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 20 yards gain to the UL 28 (#25 I.Brown-Murray), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
27.8%
(01:16) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UL 33 (#94 E.Fall)Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
26.7%
(00:34) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #0 C.Bell caught at UL 40, for 8 yards to the UL 41 (#25 I.Brown-Murray; #6 J.Bass), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
25.6%
(14:50) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UL 46 (#20 C.Woodson)Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
25.5%
(14:11) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 9 yards gain to the VT 45 (#20 C.Woodson; #18 I.Cash), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
24.4%
(13:35) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #22 K.Brown caught at VT 43, for 2 yards to the VT 43 (#16 N.Chambers)Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
24.4%
(12:54) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #15 A.Meeks caught at VT 37, for 6 yards to the VT 37 (#23 T.Williams)Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
24.3%
(12:20) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete deep right to #0 C.Bell thrown to VT 15Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
26.8%
(12:10) #93 D.Chapeau punt 37 yards to the VT 00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0732% → 29%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
31.9%
(11:55) Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short left to #15 S.Peterkin thrown to VT 35 broken up by #4 J.MackSimilar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
31.8%
(11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush middle for 7 yards gain to the VT 27 (#24 C.Gordon; #11 T.Capers) PENALTY VT Illegal Shift 5 yards from VT 20 to VT 15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
31.5%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Heath thrown to VT 18 broken up by #9 A.WattsSimilar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+5
29.9%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush left for 5 yards gain to the VT 20 (#25 T.Holloway; #34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+23
28.7%
(10:41) #95 N.Veltsistas punt 53 yards to the UL 27 #5 C.Lacy return 23 yards to the UL 50 (#23 T.Williams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1878% → 75%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
50
+5
22.5%
(10:35) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #5 C.Lacy caught at UL 45, for 5 yards to the VT 45 (#99 E.Laws)Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
22.3%
(09:54) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush left for 0 yards to the VT 45 (#3 K.Spencer)Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
22.2%
(09:17) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Lacy thrown to VT 28 broken up by #18 I.CashSimilar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
24.9%
(09:09) #93 D.Chapeau punt 45 yards to the VT 00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:5833% → 29%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
32.5%
(08:59) Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 8 yards gain to the VT 28 (#17 A.Green; #12 K.Perry)Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+11
35.2%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush middle for 11 yards gain to the VT 39 (#23 W.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
31.9%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UL 45 (#17 A.Green; #27 J.Evans Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
36.2%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #0 A.Greene thrown to UL 30Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
32.2%
(07:14) Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UL 37 (#21 D.Hutchinson; #34 T.Quinn)Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-1
31.1%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UL 38 (#11 T.Capers)Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+1
28.8%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UL 37 (#90 R.Konga), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:2481% → 97%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
19.4%
(05:47) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 10 yards gain (6) to the UL 47, out of bounds at UL 47 PENALTY UL Holding (#0 C.Bell) 10 yards from UL 43 to UL 33. #1 I.Brown injured on the playSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 14
OWN 33
+10
18.9%
(05:20) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short right to #85 N.Kurisky caught at UL 38, for 10 yards to the UL 43 (#16 N.Chambers)Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+7
15.3%
(04:37) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #2 T.Hurry caught at UL 50, for 7 yards to the UL 50 (#25 I.Brown-Murray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
50
-15
13.5%
(03:54) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UL 49 (#22 K.Gilliam Jr.; #31 J.Abbey) PENALTY UL Block Below Waist (#85 N.Kurisky) 15 yards from UL 50 to UL 35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+20
16.8%
(03:46) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 20 yards gain to the VT 45 (#16 N.Chambers)Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+17
11.2%
(03:03) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 17 yards gain to the VT 28 (#11 T.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
9.5%
(02:26) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VT 24 (#6 J.Bass; #26 A.Santiago)Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+24
3.5%
(02:10) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 24 yards gain to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:16, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:244% → 3%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
(02:06) Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short right to #20 P.Prioleau thrown to VT 23 QB hurried by #27 J.Evans Jr.Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.4%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete short left to #20 P.Prioleau caught at VT 21, for 2 yards to the VT 27 (#11 T.Capers)Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
3.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete short left to #13 J.Hairston thrown to VT 32Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
3.3%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass incomplete deep right to #11 I.Spencer thrown to UL 45, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:1997% → 98%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
2.7%
(01:47) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the VT 20 (#3 K.Spencer)Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+1
2.6%
(01:29) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VT 19 (#26 A.Santiago; #3 K.Spencer)Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+3
2.5%
(00:41) Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VT 16 (#98 K.Huisman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
2.4%
(00:20) Kneel down by #7 M.Moss at VT 17 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:16
(02:10) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 24 yards gain to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:16, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)
-19
TD · Q3 5:01
(04:52) #22 K.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:01 #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)
-18.2
TD · Q3 9:07
(09:03) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete deep middle to #5 C.Lacy caught at VT 01, for 24 yards to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:07, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com