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STAN

Stanford 7 at Miami 42

MIA
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:06 · (00:06) #37 A.Flintoft punt 33 yards to the UM36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior+39.9Home team on offense−3.1Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.0Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:15: (01:18) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at STAN00, for 5 yards to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:15 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +6.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: (15:00) #38 C.Davis kickoff 65 yards to the STAN00 fair catch by #0 C.High at STAN00 — MIA win probability +4.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:34: (09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:34 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +6.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:48: (03:51) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:48 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +7.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:32: (00:36) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:32 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker) — MIA win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:58MIA 4th & 12 at STAN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:15MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:06STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:57MIA 4th & 4 at STAN 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−0.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:08MIA 4th & 3 at STAN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.2%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:41STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:42MIA 4th & 1 at STAN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−1.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:56STAN 4th & 24 at STAN 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−2.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:26STAN 4th & 13 at STAN 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:15MIA 4th & 1 at STAN 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−1.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:06STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:19STAN 4th & 5 at MIA 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:26MIA 4th & 1 at STAN 3, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.5
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:5596% → 95%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.2%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at UM22, for 10 yards to the UM35 (#24 L.McAllister III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
96.2%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #17 T.Johnson caught at UM38, for 32 yards to the STAN33 (#91 C.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
96.1%
(13:59) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the STAN31 (#0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
96.0%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush right for 2 yards gain to the STAN29 (#75 B.Marceau-Olayinka; #97 Z.Rowell)Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+6
95.9%
(12:43) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at STAN32, for 6 yards to the STAN23 (#39 C.Eckhardt; #35 M.Rose), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
95.8%
(12:05) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the STAN19 (#35 M.Rose; #39 C.Eckhardt)Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
95.7%
(11:30) PENALTY UM False Start (#87 A.Bauman) 5 yards from STAN19 to STAN24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-1
95.7%
(11:17) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #7 C.Daniels caught at STAN27, for 1 yard loss to the STAN25 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
95.5%
(10:40) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. caught at STAN30, for 0 yards to the STAN25 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+44
95.3%
(10:02) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 44 yards NO GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 09:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 5:235% → 7%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
95.3%
PENALTY UM Offside (#11 D.Blay) 5 yards from STAN26 to STAN31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+3
95.2%
(09:57) #33 C.Tabb rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STAN34 (#31 W.Bissainthe; #12 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+6
95.1%
(09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush left for 6 yards gain to the STAN40 (#12 M.Lightfoot), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
95.0%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass complete short left to #86 S.Roush caught at STAN43, for 5 yards to the STAN45 (#8 J.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
94.8%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush right for 1 yard gain to the STAN46 (#8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
94.7%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass complete short middle to #11 B.Farrell caught at STAN49, for 3 yards to the STAN49 (#0 K.Scott)Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+4
94.7%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UM47 (#8 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
94.5%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush left for 28 yards gain to the UM19 (#29 R.Frederique, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
94.2%
(06:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush left for 2 yards gain to the UM17 (#12 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
94.0%
(06:00) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete short middle to #3 C.Williams thrown to UM07 broken up by #7 Z.PoyserSimilar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+8
94.1%
(05:56) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass complete short left to #26 S.Irvin caught at UM15, for 8 yards to the UM09, out of bounds at UM09, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.8%
(05:18) Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush middle for 0 yards to the UM09 (#18 A.Blount; #31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.6%
(04:37) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass complete short right to #0 C.High caught at UM00, for 9 yards to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:35 #13 E.Kenney kick attempt good (H: #37 A.Flintoft, LS: #93 P.Warford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:0793% → 92%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
93.0%
(04:28) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UM32 (#0 J.Galvan; #35 M.Rose)Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
92.8%
(03:57) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #3 J.Moore caught at UM37, for 5 yards to the UM37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.5%
(03:14) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep middle to #10 M.Toney thrown to STAN30Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
92.4%
(03:09) Shotgun #2 J.Lyle rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM38 (#39 C.Eckhardt)Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
92.0%
(02:28) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep middle thrown to STAN25 QB hurried by #91 C.PattersonSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
91.7%
(02:21) #94 D.Joyce punt 47 yards to the STAN15 fair catch by #13 L.Thorpe at STAN15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:598% → 9%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
91.8%
(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass complete short middle to #86 S.Roush caught at STAN20, for 6 yards to the STAN21 QB hurried by #0 K.Scott (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.)Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+1
91.4%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush right for 1 yard gain to the STAN22 (#11 D.Blay)Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+7
91.2%
(01:09) Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush middle for 7 yards gain to the STAN29 (#0 K.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
90.9%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush middle for 2 yards gain to the STAN31 (#99 A.Moten)Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
90.6%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete short right to #0 C.High thrown to STAN40Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
90.7%
(00:14) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Williams thrown to STAN35 broken up by #24 E.O'Connor QB hurried by #35 H.Scroggins IIISimilar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
90.9%
(00:06) #37 A.Flintoft punt 33 yards to the UM36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:4691% → 88%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
90.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UM38 (#21 S.Edwards)Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
90.6%
(14:29) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #0 K.Marion caught at UM43, for 7 yards to the UM45 (#24 L.McAllister III)Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
90.6%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 6 yards gain to the STAN49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
90.6%
(13:38) Shotgun #2 J.Lyle rush middle for 7 yards gain to the STAN42 (#23 H.Barth; #14 W.Aybar)Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-1
90.4%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Lyle rush middle for 1 yard loss to the STAN43 (#51 S.Mattingly; #91 C.Patterson)Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
90.0%
(12:40) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the STAN43 (#23 H.Barth)Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+6
89.3%
(12:06) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at STAN37, for 6 yards to the STAN37 (#21 S.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
89.5%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #17 T.Johnson thrown to STAN22 broken up by #94 A.FranklinSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
89.4%
(11:29) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 1 yard loss to the STAN38 (#21 S.Edwards)Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+8
88.5%
(10:51) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #3 J.Moore caught at STAN34, for 8 yards to the STAN30 (#24 L.McAllister III)Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
88.1%
(10:08) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short right to #7 C.Daniels thrown to STAN24, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2113% → 13%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
87.2%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush right for 4 yards gain to the STAN34 (#41 C.Smith; #1 M.Toure)Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
86.5%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush left for 0 yards to the STAN34 (#41 C.Smith; #1 M.Toure)Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
86.2%
(08:51) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete short middle to #86 S.Roush thrown to STAN37Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
86.6%
(08:47) #37 A.Flintoft punt 37 yards to the UM29, out of bounds at UM29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD
17 plays · 71 yds · 7:2087% → 88%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
86.5%
(08:39) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at UM42, for 16 yards to the UM45 (#29 D.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
86.4%
(08:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #9 E.Lofton caught at UM45, for 9 yards to the STAN46 (#39 C.Eckhardt)Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+7
86.6%
(07:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 7 yards gain to the STAN39 (#29 D.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
86.2%
(07:22) PENALTY UM False Start (#63 S.Okunlola) 5 yards from STAN39 to STAN44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
85.4%
(07:09) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #0 K.Marion thrown to STAN34Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+6
85.2%
(07:05) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. caught at STAN42, for 6 yards to the STAN38 (#0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+8
85.0%
(06:26) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush left for 8 yards gain to the STAN30 (#21 S.Edwards)Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
84.3%
(05:46) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STAN27 (#22 C.Ojarikre; #35 M.Rose), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
85.0%
(05:08) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the STAN21 (#0 J.Galvan; #22 C.Ojarikre)Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
84.6%
(04:35) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the STAN18 (#91 C.Patterson)Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+1
83.3%
(03:55) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the STAN17 (#38 Z.Johnson; #14 W.Aybar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
83.4%
(03:13) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #9 E.Lofton caught at STAN20, for 2 yards loss to the STAN19 (#6 C.Wright)Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+13
82.6%
(02:31) #10 M.Toney rush left for 13 yards gain to the STAN06 (#6 C.Wright), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
82.3%
(01:59) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STAN05 (#35 M.Rose; #0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.8%
(01:24) #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #7 C.Daniels thrown to STAN00. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.9%
(01:18) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at STAN00, for 5 yards to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:15 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8END OF HALF
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0415% → 16%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.9%
(01:13) Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the STAN30 (#99 A.Moten)Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
84.2%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass complete short right to #86 S.Roush caught at STAN29, for 3 yards to the STAN33 (#0 K.Scott)Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
83.8%
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete short middle to #11 B.Farrell thrown to STAN45 broken up by #7 Z.PoyserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 3:0016% → 16%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
(14:59) #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete short left to #86 S.Roush thrown to STAN25 broken up by #6 X.LucasSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.2%
PENALTY UM Offside (#11 D.Blay) 5 yards from STAN25 to STAN30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
83.6%
(14:55) Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush right for 2 yards gain to the STAN32 (#99 A.Moten; #4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
83.4%
(14:10) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass complete short left to #11 B.Farrell caught at STAN34, for 8 yards to the STAN40 (#6 X.Lucas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-14
81.9%
(13:35) #15 B.Gulbranson sacked for loss of 14 yards to the STAN26 (#6 X.Lucas) PENALTY STAN Intentional Grounding (#15 B.Gulbranson)Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 24
OWN 26
-6
83.2%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson sacked for loss of 6 yards to the STAN20 (#18 A.Blount)Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 30
OWN 20
+6
83.4%
(12:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass complete short right to #0 C.High caught at STAN18, for 6 yards to the STAN26 (#6 X.Lucas; #0 K.Scott)Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 24
OWN 26
+31
83.7%
(12:09) #37 A.Flintoft punt 45 yards to the UM29 #10 M.Toney return 31 yards to the STAN40 (#84 C.Holt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:1186% → 92%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
85.7%
(11:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep middle to #17 T.Johnson caught at STAN18, for 22 yards to the STAN18 (#22 C.Ojarikre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
85.8%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STAN14 (#14 W.Aybar; #35 M.Rose)Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
85.5%
(10:38) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left to #0 K.Marion thrown to STAN11Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+7
84.7%
(10:33) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. caught at STAN19, for 7 yards to the STAN07 (#32 M.Leigber), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
85.2%
(09:57) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the STAN01 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.6%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:34 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0211% → 10%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
89.1%
(09:32) Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush middle for 3 yards loss to the STAN22 (#93 D.Simpson, Jr.)Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
89.1%
(08:53) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete short middle to #86 S.Roush thrown to STAN27Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
89.6%
(08:49) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete short left to #26 C.Garland thrown to STAN30 QB hurried by #12 M.Lightfoot PENALTY STAN Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+42
89.8%
(08:42) #37 A.Flintoft punt 50 yards to the UM28 #10 M.Toney return 42 yards to the STAN30 (#51 S.Mattingly; #21 S.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0791% → 90%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
91.4%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STAN26 (#2 D.Stephenson)Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
91.7%
(07:49) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #7 C.Daniels caught at STAN28, for 4 yards to the STAN22 (#35 M.Rose)Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
91.0%
(07:08) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STAN21 (#2 D.Stephenson). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
90.4%
(06:19) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the STAN21 (#42 J.Murray), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13INT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1612% → 12%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
87.9%
(06:13) Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush left for 3 yards loss to the STAN18 (#11 D.Blay)Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+2
88.0%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass complete short left to #86 S.Roush caught at STAN20, for 2 yards to the STAN20, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+10
88.7%
(04:58) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete short middle to #0 C.High thrown to STAN27 PENALTY UM Pass Interference (#7 Z.Poyser) 10 yards from STAN20 to STAN30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
87.5%
(04:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete deep right to #11 B.Farrell thrown to UM35Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
87.8%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush middle for 0 yards to the STAN30 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.)Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-32
88.1%
(04:02) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass intercepted by #31 W.Bissainthe at STAN35 QB hurried by #12 M.Lightfoot #31 W.Bissainthe return 32 yards to the STAN03 (#26 S.Irvin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.7%
(03:51) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:48 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:106% → 6%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
(03:46) Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush middle for 0 yards to the STAN25 (#0 K.Scott)Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.5%
(03:12) Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush left for 6 yards gain to the STAN31 (#8 J.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
94.1%
(02:35) Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass intercepted by #6 X.Lucas at STAN45, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:5396% → 99%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
96.4%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 12 yards gain to the STAN33 (#21 S.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
96.4%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the STAN23 (#30 E.Dubre; #24 L.McAllister III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
96.6%
(01:15) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 16 yards gain to the STAN07 (#14 W.Aybar; #21 S.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.0%
(00:36) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:32 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.9%
(00:30) #33 C.Tabb rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STAN26 (#12 M.Lightfoot; #11 D.Blay)Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.0%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #33 C.Tabb rush right for 3 yards gain to the STAN29 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.9%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass incomplete short middle to #11 B.Farrell thrown to STAN33Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.1%
(14:15) #37 A.Flintoft punt 47 yards to the UM24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 4:2699% → 100%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.0%
(14:05) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UM30 (#35 M.Rose; #0 J.Galvan)Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-2
99.1%
(13:32) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UM28 (#14 W.Aybar)Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+15
99.1%
(12:49) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #17 T.Johnson caught at UM41, for 15 yards to the UM43 (#39 C.Eckhardt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.1%
(12:10) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the UM49 (#35 M.Rose; #97 Z.Rowell)Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+9
99.1%
(11:37) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #3 J.Moore caught at STAN45, for 9 yards to the STAN42 (#10 J.Washington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
99.2%
(10:55) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at STAN37, for 11 yards to the STAN31 (#10 J.Washington; #21 S.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
99.2%
(10:16) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at STAN34, for 14 yards to the STAN17 (#21 S.Edwards), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.9%
(09:39) Shotgun #2 J.Lyle rush right for 17 yards gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:34, 1ST DOWN #45 B.Auburn kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #54 M.Donovan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.9%
(09:32) #0 C.High rush right for 7 yards loss to the STAN18 (#24 E.O'Connor)Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+11
99.9%
(08:45) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short left to #3 C.Williams caught at STAN22, for 11 yards to the STAN29 (#21 J.Alderman; #28 I.Taylor)Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
99.9%
(08:03) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete deep left to #0 C.High caught at STAN50, for 21 yards to the STAN50, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
(07:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #86 S.Roush thrown to UM45 broken up by #21 J.AldermanSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
50
+7
99.9%
(07:20) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete short middle to #86 S.Roush caught at UM45, for 7 yards to the UM43 (#21 J.Alderman)Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-2
99.9%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 S.Irvin rush left for 2 yards loss to the UM45 (#28 I.Taylor)Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
99.9%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Williams thrown to UM36 broken up by #23 D.Day QB hurried by #93 D.Simpson, Jr., TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
15 plays · 55 yds · 5:42100% → 100%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush middle for 0 yards to the UM45 (#2 D.Stephenson; #14 W.Aybar)Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+16
99.9%
(05:39) Shotgun #8 E.Williams pass complete short left to #3 J.Moore caught at UM41, for 16 yards to the STAN39 (#21 S.Edwards), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.9%
(05:06) Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush middle for 7 yards gain to the STAN32 (#51 S.Mattingly)Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+2
99.9%
(04:37) Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the STAN30 (#51 S.Mattingly)Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+1
99.9%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STAN29 (#36 T.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.9%
(03:33) Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush middle for 4 yards gain to the STAN25 (#96 C.Bachhuber; #42 J.Murray)Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
99.9%
(02:55) Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush right for 5 yards gain to the STAN20 (#51 S.Mattingly; #29 D.Davis)Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+8
99.9%
(02:17) Shotgun #25 C.Wheatley-Humphrey rush right for 8 yards gain to the STAN12 (#8 C.Richardson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
100.0%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 E.Williams pass incomplete short left to #3 J.Moore thrown to STAN00 broken up by #22 C.OjarikreSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
100.0%
(01:52) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush right for 8 yards gain to the STAN04 (#8 C.Richardson)Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
100.0%
(01:10) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the STAN03 (#32 M.Leigber; #22 C.Ojarikre)Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:26, 1ST DOWN #45 B.Auburn kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #54 M.Donovan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:020% → 0%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
100.0%
(00:24) Shotgun #34 C.Hampton rush right for 27 yards gain (8) to the UM48 (#23 D.Day; #21 J.Alderman), out of bounds PENALTY STAN Illegal Block in Back (#82 T.Kuo) 10 yards from STAN33 to STAN23Similar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 12
OWN 23
+7
100.0%
(00:14) Shotgun #34 C.Hampton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the STAN30 (#90 D.Russell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:48
(03:51) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:48 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
+7.6
TD · Q3 9:34
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:34 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
+6.4
TD · Q2 1:15
(01:18) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at STAN00, for 5 yards to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:15 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com