ARDLINETry the model
CONN

UConn 38 at Boston College 23

BC
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Speed4x
Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4TDKEY PLAYTDTDTDTDTDKEY PLAY
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 2:00 · Joe Fagnano run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 49
01
CONN has the ball
−30
02
Blowout context favors the offense
−12
03
CONN leading by 15
−7
04
defense timeouts not recorded for this play
−3
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
BC · Drive 1FG · 13 plays · 46 yds
Q1 15:00
Chris Freeman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 15:00
Turbo Richard run for 3 yds to the BC 28
+2.2
Q1 14:40
Grayson James run for 6 yds to the BC 34
+0.2
Q1 14:04
Turbo Richard run for 4 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:36
Turbo Richard run for 10 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q1 13:05
Grayson James pass complete to Turbo Richard for 4 yds to the CONN 48
+0.2
Q1 12:27
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the CONN 47
+0.7
Q1 11:47
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the CONN 46
-0.2
Q1 11:07
Grayson James pass complete to Dawson Pough for 16 yds to the CONN 30 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 10:34
Grayson James sacked by Aaron Key for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 31
+0.8
Q1 10:00
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the CONN 29
0.0
Q1 9:23
Grayson James pass incomplete to Kaelan Chudzinski
0.0
Q1 9:13
Luca Lombardo 47 yd FG GOOD
+4.1
CONN · Drive 2TD · 9 plays · 75 yds
Q1 9:13
Andy Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.5
Q1 9:13
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 2 yds to the CONN 27
-1.8
Q1 8:40
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the CONN 28
-0.1
Q1 8:08
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to John Neider for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, off-side (Quintayvious Hutchins) to the CONN 43 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q1 8:02
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Sione Moa for no gain to the CONN 43 UConn Penalty, Offensive holding (Skyler Bell) to the CONN 33
-1.0
Q1 7:37
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 9 yds to the CONN 42
+1.0
Q1 7:16
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the CONN 46
-1.0
Q1 6:37
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 19 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST down UConn Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Skyler Bell) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q1 6:16
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Javonte Vereen for 50 yds for a TD Boston College Penalty, Defensive holding (Isaiah Farris) to the BC 0 (Chris Freeman KICK) (Chris Freeman KICK)
-10.3
BC · Drive 3FG · 15 plays · 67 yds
Q1 6:06
Chris Freeman kickoff for 65 yds , TJ Green return for 29 yds to the BC 29
+1.0
Q1 5:59
Turbo Richard run for 6 yds to the BC 35
+2.8
Q1 5:24
Jordan McDonald run for 9 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:00
Grayson James pass complete to VJ Wilkins for 8 yds to the CONN 48
+0.4
Q1 4:11
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the CONN 47
+0.9
Q1 3:31
Jordan McDonald run for 6 yds to the CONN 41 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 3:09
Jordan McDonald run for 13 yds to the CONN 28 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q1 2:46
Jordan McDonald run for 13 yds to the CONN 15 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 2:22
Jordan McDonald run for 6 yds to the CONN 9
-1.3
Q1 2:05
Jordan McDonald run for no gain to the CONN 9
+0.2
Q1 1:28
Grayson James pass incomplete to Kaelan Chudzinski for a 1ST down UConn Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cam Chadwick) to the CONN 2 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q1 1:23
Jordan McDonald run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 4
+0.2
Q1 0:42
Grayson James pass incomplete to Zeke Moore
+0.1
Q1 0:38
Grayson James pass incomplete to Reed Harris
-0.2
Q1 0:35
Luca Lombardo 22 Yd Field Goal
+2.9
CONN · Drive 4TD · 11 plays · 80 yds
Q1 0:35
Andy Quinn kickoff for 62 yds , Terrence Smith return for 17 yds to the CONN 20
-0.1
Q1 0:23
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to John Neider, broken up by Carter Davis UConn Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the CONN 15
+4.4
Q1 0:22
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 7 yds to the CONN 22
-15.8
Q2 15:00
Joe Fagnano run for 8 yds to the CONN 30 Boston College Penalty, personal foul (Micah Amedee) to the CONN 45
+7.6
Q2 14:39
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell
+0.4
Q2 14:33
Victor Rosa run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q2 13:57
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 26 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 13:32
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the BC 22
-0.5
Q2 12:49
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 15 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:14
Victor Rosa run for 5 yds to the BC 2
0.0
Q2 11:41
Joe Fagnano 2 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)
-8.8
BC · Drive 5TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q2 11:41
Chris Freeman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.1
Q2 11:41
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the BC 27
+0.7
Q2 11:05
Jordan McDonald run for 17 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 10:42
Grayson James run for 9 yds to the CONN 47
+1.7
Q2 10:22
Jordan McDonald run for 8 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q2 9:58
Grayson James run for 20 yds to the CONN 19 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q2 9:33
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 4 yds to the CONN 15
-0.6
Q2 9:07
Grayson James run for 6 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 8:38
Grayson James run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 11
0.0
Q2 8:23
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the CONN 9
0.0
Q2 7:31
Kaelan Chudzinski 9 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)
+11.8
CONN · Drive 6FG · 6 plays · 38 yds
Q2 7:31
Andy Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Boston College Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kemori Dixon)
-0.4
Q2 7:31
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 40 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST down
-4.4
Q2 6:51
Skyler Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 22
-1.3
Q2 6:19
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Javonte Vereen, broken up by Bryce Steele
0.0
Q2 6:02
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Reymello Murphy, broken up by Isaiah Farris
0.0
Q2 5:52
C. Freeman 40 yd FG GOOD
-2.3
BC · Drive 7PUNT · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q2 5:52
Chris Freeman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-3.5
Q2 5:50
Jordan McDonald run for 10 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q2 5:19
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the BC 37
0.0
Q2 4:59
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the BC 38
+0.4
Q2 4:18
Grayson James sacked by Amir Renwick for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 34
+0.1
Q2 3:39
Shamus Florio punt for 47 yds , Jackson Harper returns for 10 yds to the CONN 29
-0.1
CONN · Drive 8PUNT · 6 plays · 13 yds
Q2 3:27
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Javonte Vereen for 4 yds to the CONN 33
-2.4
Q2 2:40
Joe Fagnano run for 9 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 2:05
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Reymello Murphy
-0.8
Q2 2:03
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 1:56
Joe Fagnano run for no gain to the CONN 42 UConn Penalty, Offensive holding (Ben Murawski) to the CONN 42
0.0
Q2 1:49
Connor Stutz punt for 41 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 21 yds to the BC 38
+0.2
BC · Drive 9TD · 10 plays · 62 yds
Q2 1:38
Grayson James pass complete to Dawson Pough for 8 yds to the BC 46
+3.2
Q2 1:12
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 16 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q2 1:01
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the CONN 31
+1.3
Q2 0:57
Grayson James pass incomplete to Reed Harris
0.0
Q2 0:51
Boston College Penalty, false start (Logan Taylor) to the CONN 36
-0.2
Q2 0:51
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the CONN 33
0.0
Q2 0:47
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the CONN 24 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q2 0:37
Boston College Penalty, false start (Michael Crounse) to the CONN 29
-0.3
Q2 0:29
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for no gain to the CONN 29 Boston College Penalty, Offensive holding (Logan Taylor) to the CONN 39
+0.7
Q2 0:21
Reed Harris 39 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)
+21.7
CONN · Drive 10END OF HALF · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q2 0:21
Andy Quinn kickoff for 64 yds , Terrence Smith return for 26 yds to the CONN 27
-1.5
Q2 0:11
Joe Fagnano run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 35
0.0
CONN · Drive 11TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Andy Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q3 14:58
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 2 yds to the CONN 27
0.0
Q3 14:23
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 6 yds to the CONN 33
0.0
Q3 13:41
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 10 yds to the CONN 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 12:59
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the CONN 49
+0.6
Q3 12:35
Cam Edwards run for 8 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST down
-0.8
Q3 11:51
John Neider 43 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)
-17.8
BC · Drive 12PUNT · 7 plays · 26 yds
Q3 11:51
Chris Freeman kickoff for 64 yds
+1.3
Q3 11:51
Grayson James run for 9 yds to the BC 34
+4.1
Q3 11:32
Jordan McDonald run for 11 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:13
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the BC 48
+0.5
Q3 10:35
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the CONN 49
+0.2
Q3 10:03
Grayson James pass incomplete to Dawson Pough
+4.3
Q3 9:57
Shamus Florio punt for 47 yds
0.0
CONN · Drive 13PUNT · 10 plays · 45 yds
Q3 9:44
Cam Edwards run for 11 yds to the CONN 13 for a 1ST down
-7.0
Q3 9:07
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 9 yds to the CONN 22
0.0
Q3 8:31
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the CONN 25 for a 1ST down
-1.8
Q3 7:56
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Reymello Murphy
0.0
Q3 7:47
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 13 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:05
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the CONN 38 UConn Penalty, Offensive holding (Ty Chan) to the CONN 28
-2.0
Q3 6:37
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Cam Edwards for 6 yds to the CONN 34
-0.5
Q3 6:05
Joe Fagnano sacked by Chris Marable Jr. and Sedarius McConnell for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 33
0.0
Q3 5:22
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Javonte Vereen for 14 yds to the CONN 47
0.0
Q3 4:37
Connor Stutz punt for 46 yds
-0.9
BC · Drive 14PUNT · 4 plays · -2 yds
Q3 4:36
Grayson James pass incomplete to Reed Harris
+4.5
Q3 4:23
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the BC 9
-0.1
Q3 3:49
Grayson James sacked by Bryun Parham and Trent Jones II for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 5
-0.4
Q3 3:09
Shamus Florio punt for 40 yds
0.0
CONN · Drive 15TD · 5 plays · 45 yds
Q3 3:05
Cam Edwards run for 12 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST down
-4.5
Q3 2:25
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the BC 32 UConn Penalty, Offensive holding (Wes Hoeh) to the BC 42
-0.1
Q3 2:12
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 23 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 1:30
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Cam Edwards for 5 yds to the BC 14
-0.4
Q3 0:49
Javonte Vereen 14 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)
-11.2
BC · Drive 16FG · 15 plays · 78 yds
Q3 0:49
Chris Freeman kickoff for 63 yds , Alex Broome return for 13 yds to the BC 15
+0.5
Q3 0:43
Grayson James run for 7 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST down UConn Penalty, personal foul (Malachi McLean) to the BC 37 for a 1ST down
+1.8
Q3 0:25
Grayson James run for 3 yds to the BC 40
0.0
Q3 0:07
Grayson James sacked by Devin Pringle for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 33 Boston College Penalty, intentional grounding (Grayson James) to the BC 33
+0.1
Q4 15:00
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 27 yds to the CONN 40 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 14:42
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the CONN 37
+1.5
Q4 13:56
Grayson James pass incomplete to Jordan McDonald
-0.5
Q4 13:56
Grayson James pass incomplete to Lewis Bond
0.0
Q4 13:50
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 13 yds to the CONN 24 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 13:23
Grayson James run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 26
-0.3
Q4 12:45
Bo MacCormack III run for 14 yds to the CONN 12 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q4 12:10
Bo MacCormack III run for 3 yds to the CONN 9
0.0
Q4 11:34
Grayson James pass incomplete to Jeremiah Franklin
-0.8
Q4 11:29
Grayson James run for 2 yds to the CONN 7
0.0
Q4 10:40
Luca Lombardo 25 Yd Field Goal
+1.7
CONN · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q4 10:40
Andy Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+11.3
Q4 10:35
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell, broken up by Carter Davis
-7.6
Q4 10:35
Victor Rosa run for 5 yds to the CONN 30
0.0
Q4 9:52
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jackson Harper for 3 yds to the CONN 33
-0.3
Q4 9:03
Connor Stutz punt for 58 yds
+2.7
BC · Drive 18PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q4 8:51
Jordan McDonald run for 7 yds to the BC 16
+6.6
Q4 8:30
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the BC 17
+0.1
Q4 7:51
Grayson James sacked by Bryun Parham and Amir Renwick for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 13
-1.8
Q4 7:15
Shamus Florio punt for 42 yds
-0.7
CONN · Drive 19TD · 5 plays · 55 yds
Q4 7:07
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 49
-6.1
Q4 6:43
Joe Fagnano run for 7 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:59
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the BC 38
+1.1
Q4 5:14
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell
-1.9
Q4 5:04
Skyler Bell 38 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)
-7.5
BC · Drive 20DOWNS · 10 plays · 32 yds
Q4 5:04
Chris Freeman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 5:03
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 13 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q4 4:38
Grayson James pass incomplete to Jeremiah Franklin
0.0
Q4 4:37
Grayson James pass complete to Bo MacCormack III for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 4:15
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 9 yds to the CONN 41
+0.1
Q4 3:41
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 10 yds to the CONN 31 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q4 3:25
Grayson James pass incomplete to Dawson Pough
+0.2
Q4 3:14
Grayson James sacked by Bryun Parham for a loss of 5 yards to the CONN 43
-0.2
Q4 3:13
Grayson James sacked by Oumar Diomande for a loss of 7 yards to the CONN 38
+0.2
Q4 2:42
Grayson James pass incomplete to Reed Harris
-0.2
CONN · Drive 21Uncategorized · 7 plays · 8 yds
Q4 2:36
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the CONN 44
+0.9
Q4 2:29
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the CONN 45
0.0
Q4 2:29
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the CONN 48
0.0
Q4 2:00
Connor Stutz punt
0.0
Q4 2:00
Joe Fagnano run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 48
0.0
Q4 2:00
Joe Fagnano run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 49
0.0
Q4 2:00
Joe Fagnano run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 49
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:21
Reed Harris 39 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)
+21.7
TD · Q3 11:51
John Neider 43 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)
-17.8
KEY PLAY · Q1 0:22
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 7 yds to the CONN 22
-15.8
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com